Eruptions at Tongariro & Whaakari (White Island) and 1 million viewers!

Image by IGNS Ltd.

As most of you know 2012 had up until a couple of days ago been rather free from significant eruptions, but that has now changed. As the ash and smoke starts to clear we now know that the explosions at both Whaakari and Tongariro was not the main events.

Tongariro

Image by Lurking showing ash column height and ash spread radius. This plot was also made at the same time as Lurking became the 1 millionth viewer. Quite fitting really.

The eruption that happened during last night was mainly driven by water pushed past the steam flash point. That in turn caused a large steam driven explosion that hurled incandescent stones out of no less than 3 new vents in the mountain close to the Te Mari craters. The steam also lofted ash and steam up to a height of 6 000 meters (20 000 feet, or FLA 200 as the VAAC terminology goes).

Photograph by Diana Booth. Rare image of an ash and steam cloud taken from below as it rises into the heavens after an explosive phase ends.

The steam explosion was caused by rising magma hitting the permanent water table, also, the magma from Tongariro contains a lot of water, and that most likely decompressed into a steam explosion.

The event was rather short in duration. According to the seismograph plots the actual explosion was about 1 minute long, and the main eruptive phase was about 20 minutes long. After that there was mainly steam being ejected. The steam phase lasted for about 20 hours when a second smaller steam driven ash explosion occurred.

Image by Geonet.

Risks at Tongariro

This is most likely not the main event, this is just a pre-cursor activity as magma rises. It is quite normal for andesitic subduction volcanoes to have an initial phase of steam driven ash explosions like this. This phase can last for a day or two up to a few weeks before the real eruption starts.

Quite often the size of the steam explosions are indicative of what will come during the main event, and a steam driven ash explosion that lofts up material to 6000 meters height is telling us that there can be something rather large in the making. My best guess is that this will be around a VEI-3 eruption.

Earlier today I read an interview with a local woman living close to the volcano. I was taken rather aback when I read that she felt safe where she was living. She was telling about seeing ash and steam rolling down the side of the volcano into the valley she lived in. Apparently she and other locals think this is as bad as it gets.  This is rather ignorant since the main dangers are lahars and the even worse pyroclastic flows running down the mountain into the valleys.

I hope that the valleys will be evacuated in time. One should though not forget that the eruption can change pace rapidly, and that it is better to be safe than sorry. Dead is a rather permanent position in life.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7426862/First-Tongariro-eruption-in-over-100-years

Whaakari (White Island)

Image by Geonet. Moonlighting volcano at its best! Beginning of the nightly steam explosion at Whaakari (White Island) back lighted by the wonderful moonligh.

Whaakari is also a member of the TVZ (Taupo Volcanic Zone). It is a very large volcano built up by no less than 78 cubic kilometers of material. It is a complex volcano containing multiple vents and craters. A few days ago the Crater Lake went from being a small mud pool into being a sizeable lake as the water level rose 6 meters over night due to increase in hydrothermal pressure. A day later (also at night) a steam driven explosion hurled up ash and mud covering the new crater, the same area that killed eleven sulphur miners during the end of the mining epoch at Whaakari.

Image by Geonet. The man activity was on the fourth of August, but the level of tremor is still above normal, a probable sign of rising magma in the system causing steam explosions during its progress.

White Island is well known for its high rate of eruptions. It normally erupt very complex lavas pointing to either a mixed heritage of basaltic and andesitic feeder sources, or a complex magmatic system with high fractioning of the magmas. This produces the famous “clean” and “dirty” andesites. The volcano is at best highly unpredictable and can erupt without giving any untoward signs beyond the normal high background level of activity. To go there during an eruptive phase is to be considered very dangerous.

Image by Global Volcanism Program taken by Richard Waitt, 1986 (U.S. Geological Survey). The current active area, photograph is from 1986.

The same goes for Whaakari as for Tongariro; this is most likely only a pre-cursor phase before the real activity starts. Historically Whaakari has slightly stronger eruptions than Tongariro with the norm being VEI-2 eruptions, but with an upwards trend in strength of the eruptions during the last 170 years with the norm now being medium sized VEI-3s. The last eruption was in 2001 and rated as a VEI-2. But the year before there was a short and brutal VEI-3. And it is fairly indicative of the volcano that it has an upwards trend as the volcanic system evolves. What makes this volcano more prone for larger eruptions than Tongariro is the large (almost limitless) access to water to drive the hydro magmatic processes going on down in the volcano. The currently active crater floor is only 13 meters above sea level.

1 million viewers!

Image by Spica.

It is rather insane that it took us this short time to have 1 million viewers. From the beginning this has been a rather nutty experience. As I was convinced by a few others to create this place I expected a couple of hundred views per day, and a few comments. I never expected to start with 5000 viewers on the first day… And it just continued like that. As I have said many times, this is a group efforts and during the last half a year (slightly more) had a tremendous amount of posts published by many of our members. Keep those lovely posts coming and we will soon pass 2 million!

Little known fact, this is also Swedens largest blog… How about that?

CARL

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554 thoughts on “Eruptions at Tongariro & Whaakari (White Island) and 1 million viewers!”

  4. Just for the fun of it I made this little 4D video of earthquakes at (now sleepy) El Hierro, with 4 different moving views…data is from July 13th to today.

    • Interesting… rather like The Magic Roundabout though. I couldn’t watch it for too long! It does show the rising magma into the “Sill” quite well though.

  5. “There is no association of Italian scientists against it. It is one man who is not a scientist in the field” <— false
    "No real expert fears the drilling" <— false
    An example ( i could post many others, but not in english), interview to G. MAstrolorenzo (INGV): http://www.rivistahydepark.org/rischio-vesuvio-campania/%E2%80%9Cthe-phlegraean-field-deep-drilling-project-interview-with-professor-giuseppe-mastrolorenzo%E2%80%9D-by-malko/
    But I imagine that Mastrolorenzo is a witch and you a great scientist …. there are many others italian scientists in this way.
    What about may 2006 in Java? There are documentations of many accidents and side effects related to deep drilling (not only in a volcano), but if you don't search you won't find.
    I'm not against deep drilling generally, but i'm against deep drilling in a city, in a high populated zone, it's simply a stupid and irresponsible idea.
    You could express yourself without denigrating scientists against deep drilling in a city. Anyway thanks to all responses. I hope my english is quite understandable. Hi all.

    • Scienzaobsoleta, I can see your point.
      I am sure that INGV scientists are aware of the fact that the drilling would raise criticism, both from locals as well as for those scientists with opposite views about the procedure.
      But I also think that the fact that there is a whole city sitting on a potentially dangerous, and little known (super)volcano doesn’t make INGV scientists any more confident of their knowledge and ability to make more accurate forecasts.
      Since they believe (those from INGV) that the drilling poses the least of the dangers for accidents, they are taking the risk in order to know what is really taking place beneath Campi Flegrei, and to take the necessary precautions. If something goes wrong it will mean that the volcano is more dangerous than thought, and maybe the risks were justified.
      As long as the initiative is not being fed by economical interests, my take is that they should try their best better know the volcano’s behaviour.
      Anyways, someone’s reputation is at stake here…

    • An interesting read. What emerges very strongly is the unwillingness for anyone to take responsibility of the health and safety issues relating to deep drilling in this area. Obviously because of the dense population the effect of an explosion, let alone an eruption would be catastrophic. What also is frightening is that even though there is a possibility of a natural eruption,it would appear there is still no completed emergency plans!
      From reading this I personally feel there is only a minuscule chance deep drilling may cause an eruption (Until it is proved without any doubt then I will never say “No chance”. We do not yet understand 100% what triggers an eruption). There is more chance that deep drilling may cause an explosion which is certainly not good for the workers or local people but it is not an eruption.
      Journals and scientists seem divided.
      Quote “None of the scientific articles we have gone through talk about the scientific and technical details at the basis of the fears but leap immediately to the conclusions: alarm yes or no?!”
      I get the impression the people of this area of Italy are not getting a fair service from their local government.
      It is interesting though that there has been deep drilling previously with no eruptions and presumably the technology for cautious drilling has improved from those days.
      I think this discussion will rumble on for some time. Drilling has stopped so it is up to the local government now to make informed decisions..
      Personally I would chase the politicians for a workable, rapid and practiced emergency plan in case Vesuvius or the other monsters decide to force a chaotic response to their natural eruptions.
      Thank you scienzaobsoleta for bringing these matters to be discussed.. Food for thought indeed.

      • My questions would be:

        1) how big is the borehole;
        2) what will they do with escaping gases, if any;
        3) what is the drilling process and how much will it disturb surrounding rock / the magma chamber;
        4) if water other fluids hit magma / very hot rock, how are they going to deal with the rapid expansion of water / conversion to steam / release of other gases;
        5) do they have equipment in place to detect potential problems as they drill; and,
        6) if they hit real snags, can they back out safely.

        • Deep drilling on its own has problems actually: it can contaminate the water table with compounds from below. Not that this does not happen naturally, it does as well, but in Hengill, there have been reports that the recent fracking and drilling have spoiled some regions that also provide drinking water to Reykjavík. So deep drilling can have negative environmental impact.

      • Diana, this is actually my small field of specialization regarding volcanoes.
        If they where going to run a hydrothermal powerplant with intense fracking I would be a bit worried. But not regarding causing an eruption, even a small one. I would instead be worried about worrying people with the related earthquakes.

      • Thanks Diana and Renato. “There is more chance that deep drilling may cause an explosion which is certainly not good for the workers or local people but it is not an eruption”<– Sure; in fact there isn't a really eruption's preoccupation, but preoccupations for other accidents and side effects as gas explosions or underwater damages, and generally for the damage of underground's stability and balance and environmental impact.
        In the last years italians experienced environmental damages due to fracking for oil and gas and currently there are some investigations about possible relations between fracking and earthquakes in Emilia Romagna (may 2012), so people have started to see the drills as a devil. I think we have to learn more about deep drilling and its consequences (environmental impact) to do it in high populated places (even if there isn't a volcano). Hi, ciao.

    • Sciencaobsoleta, Your reference G. Mastrolorenzo is published as a hematologist. That is a medical profession…
      His last co-published paper is “Ozonized autohaemotransfusion could be a potential rapid-acting antidepressant medication in elderly patients.” He is specialized in bloodrelated deceases in elders to be exact.

      So, yes regarding talking about boreholes he is a witch-doctor and I am an expert.

      Give me the name of one Volcanologist, geologist, or geophysicist and I will give a rats ass.

      Java is a mudvolcano, a totally different thing. Study before you sprout unrelated things.

      And the third time I say this.
      There are allready 8 LARGE holes that was drilled into Campi Flegrei. Get your facts streight before attacking serious real scientific work.

    • Scienzaobsoleta, did you not pay attention? Carl (a.k.a. “Volcanocafé) has been professionally involved at a managerial level in several deep drilling projects into active volcanoes, in Africa and Iceland. He, if anyone, is an expert on the subject. He gave you excellent answers as to why the drilling poses no danger, answers that you completely ignore.

      Also, it has been pointed out that in the 70s and 80s, eight very large diameter holes were sunk into the Campi Flegrei for the purpose of extraction/evaluation the potential for geothermal energy. There were no protests then, and nothing bad happened even if it coincided with the peak in Bradyseismic activity. Why this sudden conviction that sinking a small-diameter hole in the area for scientific purposes should be dangerous?

      Forgive me Scienzaobsoleta, but you do come across as a “smörgåsbord” type of person, i.e. the type of person who picks and chooses what they want to belive and disregard what does not fit into their pet domgma.

      • Well, reading Carl i can understand that he is an expert of arrogance and denigrations (so i won’t try again to comunicate with him). I posted only one interview because it is in english, but there are many others volcanologists and geologists and geophisics against deep drilling high populated places that i don’t post because it’s italian language. So Carl is a god and these scientists are witches? It’s a fact that deep drilling have enviromental impacts, he can’t say that it’s always a safe and good thing. Not always deep drilling have not bad side effects. Is it a good idea drilling a high populated place? And if “eight very large diameter holes were sunk” do you think it’s a good idea to continue to drill the underground as a gruyere until it breaks? What’s about underground’s stability? Carl is not a god, he can’t know for sure that drilling will not have bad impacts, so the dogma is your. I have no belief, and if you think to have the certainty that you know everything about impacts of deep drilling who is the “smörgåsbord”? Tomorrow Liet prepare your backyard that i’ll come with Carl to deep drill …
        Hi all.

        • As an ‘impartial observer’ let me offer this.

          Maybe Carl and ‘Liet’ were initially a bit hard on Sr Mastrolorenzo, but perhaps they didn’t realise who he actually was at first. However, having now established his credentials, it comes as no surprise that he does not actually say ‘no’ to deep drilling: in fact, it is a measured opposite. In the interview with him that you point to there is nothing in his answers to say he is against the drilling. Sure, he outlines potential problems, as well as the political background (which is, after all, much more ‘explosive’ if you’re after a story), but ultimately does not come out against drilling.

          The article itself then goes on to be against it, but that is the journalist speaking (believe me, I know how this game works).

          I don’t know anything to question anybody about this on a scientific level, but I have reasons to believe Carl when he says what he says, and I have to respect Sr Mastrolorenzo’s remarks because of his position. When you read the article they are not that far apart. Is that surprising? Well, no. Mastrolorenzo has co-authored papers with the deep drilling project director!

        • Thank you Ukviggen, I agree with what you say about Professor Mastrolorenzo, it is quite different from the way it was presented to us. I’d say what he has said has been cherrypicked and twisted by people with an agenda. Should Professor Mastrolorenzo read these pages, my apologies. But I will not apologise to people who have twisted what he has said for their political agenda, curse their black hearts.

          Scienzaobsoleta, from your comment about drilling in my backyard, I deduce that you are a citizen of Naples as you consider Campi Flegrei to be yours. Some friendly advice – move, get the hell out of there! It is only a matter of time before the Naples area will be erazed from the map. It most likely will not be in your lifetime, but certainly your descendants will one day experience it unless you, their ancestor, insure their survival by moving away. Get this – La Bella Napoli will never be safe for human habitation and one day in the not too distant future, the scenes of 79 AD will be re-enacted, with far more horrifying results. Better a controlled exodus now…

          • “Thank you Ukviggen, I agree with what you say about Professor Mastrolorenzo, it is quite different from the way it was presented to us. I’d say what he has said has been cherrypicked and twisted by people with an agenda. “

            Hey, there’s a concept. A mediahead skews the dog crap out of a statement and presents it as justifying their point of view. Not the first time, and won’t be the last. All I can hope is that the guilty party has their genitalia rot off.

          • Journo: “So, Mr Expert, do you think we’re all at risk?”
            Mr Expert: “No, not at all.”
            Journo: “What, no risk at all? Some people have said that we’re all going to die.”
            Mr Expert: “Well of course there’s always some risk, but in this case it’s so small that it is negligible. You’re much more likely to be run over by a bus on the way home.”
            Journo: “But, there IS still a risk, no matter how small.”
            Mr Expert: ” Well, technically yes, but…..”

            Headline: WE’RE ALL AT RISK, SAYS MR EXPERT

          • My first paper in history was a tiny little piece in Economic History where I had a look at how the people of a small farming community coped with the economic consequences of an agricultural reform (1843-50). My opponent/challenger spent her allotted 45 minutes analysing the language and grammar of the paper and when I asked her afterwards wtf she was on about, she said she had no idea about the subject she had to do something she understood (she had a BA in Swedish) because she was being graded.

            Same with journos it seems. They have no idea about the subject, are too lazy to skull up and need to sell copies to make the next step. Excuse me! If you have no effin clue and are too stupid and/or too lazy to do something about it, you should be looking for a job more suited to your “qualifications”. And what about the editor? You didn’t have anyone with the right qualifications for the job you say? Then hire one cheapskate, even if it’s a one-off free-lance. Oh? You say how can you tell if someone is or isn’t qualified to make an interview and write a coherent article? I’m sorry, I thought you were the editor, it says so on the door. But I see you’re just another moron holding down a job for which you have neither aptitude nor ability or qualifications…

            Modern society in a nutshell – desire outweighs ability every time. More power to Dr Lecter!

          • Sometimes people have no idea who constitutes an expert. I know lots of archaeologists who know nothing of history, and vice versa. However, most people would think they are virtually the same thing. If I know about medieval pottery in the south of England I may not have a clue about any pottery from the north or anywhere in Europe. So – the Editor asks for a specialist and he may get the wrong one – or he/she asks for a generalist and they don’t know enough.

  6. 1258… though it does have an SO2 spike from some unknown volcano, was not necessarily the start of things getting colder.

    http://i47.tinypic.com/33ksw87.png

    Temperatures were already starting to roll off according to the reconstructed temperature from the NGRIP ice core of central Greenland.

    From Wackipedia:

    From 986 AD, Greenland’s west coast was colonized by Icelanders and Norwegians in two settlements on fjords near the southwestern-most tip of the island. They shared the island with the late Dorset culture inhabitants who occupied the northern and western parts, and later with the Thule culture arriving from the north. Norse Greenlanders submitted to Norwegian rule in the 13th century, and the kingdom of Norway entered into a personal union with Denmark in 1380 and from 1397 was a part of the Kalmar Union.

    Conditions there were good enough to where a farmstead and cattle were offered to sweeten the pot in getting an official clergyman assigned to the church there.

    It got worse over time, and analysis of the diet of the Greenlanders showed a shift towards a sustinance that relied more and more on seafood as the colony was slowly starved out.

      • Not much, there is no evidence for any volcanic activity under the icecap. And, there has most likely not been any activity for at least one million years. Remember that Greenland moved away from the hotspot many million of years ago.

  7. More evidence that the United States is toast.

    UCF was ranked No. 1 least rigorous school in Newsweek’s recently released 2012 Best Colleges list. The list of the 25 least rigorous colleges included a list of schools where students found the workload easiest when normalized by the aptitude of the student body.

    UCF wasn’t the only Florida institution to rank at the top of the list – Florida State University ranked directly behind UCF at No. 2, University of South Florida ranked No. 4, Florida Atlantic University ranked No. 14 and University of Florida ranked No. 21.

    http://www.centralfloridafuture.com/news/ucf-ranked-no-1-least-rigorous-school-1.2749245

    So… get this, rather than lamenting the inference that these are lax schools with low standards… and by extension, producing graduates of questionable skill and knowledge… these idiots are reveling in it.

    I think they may have an issue with their priorities.

    I would have greater confidence in someone who was held to high intellectual standards over someone who went to a party school and majored in copulation.

    • I must though point out that all students get a Minor in Part and Fornication at pretty much all universities though. You do not get a degree without it… :mrgreen:

    • Hey! It’s all good, because they will all publish “peer-reviewed” papers and since their peers are equally intellectually inept, noone will notice. I’ll let you into a secret, advancement in human organisations is dependent upon the following mathematical formula:

      Career Yearning Quotient / Intellectual Capacity Quotient

      This tells you two things a) the higher your CYQ is, the more likely you are to succeed, and b) being intellectually endowed is a handicap

  8. I would suggest keeping a close eye at what is happening at Askja.
    I do not like what I am seeing now, or more to the point… It is starting to look good.

  10. There are events apparently worse than 1258. As far I as know there is not a big record of famine and climatic change around that 1258 and after. And of course its source is unknown.

    But we have a report of freak climate, much colder and wet summers around 1315-1320 that caused the “Great Famine”, the largest famine in 1000 years. It is unknown if this was just a climatic shift or other event caused by a volcano (namely Kaharoa, New Zeland). It was probably the largest disruption in 1000 years, greater than the 1816 Year without summer.

    Another large event (probably even more extreme) happened around 535 and resulted in famine, climatic changes and hazy skies; and was probably caused by a large VEI6 or VEI7 eruption of Krakatoa.

    Another big event was the post effects of Taupo, NZ event circa 180 AC, but there is little reports other than red skies over Rome. That was probably the largest Holocene eruption.

    Another event might also have been caused by the largest eruption of Hekla around 1000 BC (around the “Bronze Age collapse”); there is a record of 18 years of colder years, so something at least as worse as the aforementioned events.

    Other significant events occurred in 1452 (Kuwae), 1600 ( Huaynaputina), 1783 (Laki), 1883 (Krakatoa) but not as dramatic (except perhaps Laki for some parts of Europe).

    I am missing another event also circa 1100 AC and I guess another around 900 AC, but I forgot the exact dates and possible eruptions (they are much less known)

    • I agree that the events you mention are global, while the famine in England and Wales in 1258 does not seem to have been felt in Germany for instance. The Great Famine of 1315-1320 was at least pan-European and probably weakened the children so much that they were in no state to deal with the Plague when it arrived in 1347. The 535 Event was what probably ended the Roman Empire – the Roman way of life had continued in England, for instance, up until that time although the Legions had left. It is during the sixth century that everything Roman stops and we are in the ‘Dark Ages’.

  13. Another long post from me I’m afraid. On the previous page I mentioned that I’d found an account of what might be an eruption on the Arabian Peninsula in 1256. This is so interesting that I thought I’d put it here in full. We were looking for the primary source of the information on the 1258 eruption effects. This is from Matthew Paris’s English History: From the year 1235 to 1273, Volume III.

    The person telling the story could not have seen the events he describes as he is a Christian and thus not able to visit the Holy Sites of Mecca and Madinah. Matthew Paris would never have seen a volcano. As clerics they would have viewed all such natural events as the work of God. Despite all this I think it might be a fairly accurate account.

    “Of a dreadful fire, which consumed the temple of Mahomet: At this time [1257] a venerable man, a master of the brethren of St. Thomas’s Church at Acre, who brought news to the abbot and monks [of St Alban's, England] which he stated to be true. [Paris discusses church business and says the traveller has come via Rome]. He also stated that a sort of infernal lightning, which, however, descended from the skies, had suddenly set fire to and destroyed the temple of Mahomet, together with his statue, that again a second explosion, similar to the first, had reduced the said temple to small bits; and that a third had, as was believed, thrust the ruins into an abyss in the earth. After this, he said, this fire, which burned with a most devouring heat, though it did not give a bright light, crept along under the earth, like the fire of hell, consuming even rocks in tis way, and could not even yet be extinguished. And thus the whole city of Mecca, and the country in its vicinity, were consumed with inextinguishable fire.
    Of a burning river: He also gave an account of a large devouring river, which contrary to the nature of water, not being content with itw own bounds, followed a strange course, and made its way up lofty mountains, taking by surprise those who had fled to their tops for refuge, and destroying them with its inflamed torrent, as though they were burnt with fire. Thus those who had escaped from the sulphurous fire below were swallowed up by this burning river.”

    KarenZ kindly posted a link to an eruption at Rahat, Harrat, Saudi Arabia in 1256. This was a Fissure eruption some 20km SE of Madinah. A regional fissure eruption, Explosive eruption and lava flow are recorded. The eruption lasted from 5 June – 27 July 1256.

    I think the account of Matthew Paris is attempting to describe a fissure eruption and a lava flow with possible the fire coming from the skies being the explosive eruption. I do NOT think this is the missing 1258 eruption – I put it here as a medieval account of an eruption. There may be more out there!

    • Rahat, Harrat, Saudi Arabia in 1256 was a VEI3 so very unlikely to be the missing eruption(s).

    • The account Paris would have received is highly unlikely to have been direct from the actual witness. The tale probably came via a sequence pedlars who traded goods from the Middle East to the UK and swapped news en route too.

      • The traveller came from St. Thomas’s Church, Acre (in modern Israel), via Rome, so he was in a position to have spoken to an eyewitness.

        • Sorry missed that bit. But as the traveller was a cleric, he probably wrote down what he was told, especially as he was on his way to Rome. The account is probably relatively accurate.

          If you check out the area on Google Maps (satellite option) there is what appears to be lava flows near Medina. There are also older looking ones in the direction of Mecca – before 1256, I would guess.

          GVP does not list many eruptions for the period 1250 to 1260. In addition to Rahat, Harrat, they have (VEI where available is in parentheses):

          1250: Azul, Cerro (0); Tungurahu; Bárdarbunga (1); Gorny Institute; Akan; Tokach (3)i; Shasta; Etna (2); Rungwe; Fentale;
          1253: Sawâd, Harra es- (3)
          1260: Orizaba, Pico de (3); Mammoth Mountain; Cotopaxi; Pelée.

          • What’s also interesting is that the GVP has exact dates for the Medina eruption – which implies that there is a written account somewhere else. There would be a huge number of Arab scholars in the area of Medina/Mecca and if any Holy places were damaged they would write about it. It is even possible that our traveller from Acre saw a written account of the eruption. The Crusader wars were at their height and the Christians might have employed spies – or questioned anyone who traded from Mecca to the Levant.

            None of the eruptions in the GVP seem to fit the 1258 eruption.

    • Hi Talla, thanks for all your hard work, I am finding your posts absolutely fascinating..

      • I agree: Really interesting indeed. :)

        And I think, the fire river going up the mountain side could have been a pyroclastic flow – they are connected to explosive eruptions.

      • Thanks for this information. I’d also just read about the fire in Mecca which burned the mosque. It seems that the story Matthew Paris was given conflates these two events: the eruption and the fire. I’m just about to dive into “Personal Narrative of a Pilgramage to Al-Madinah and Meccah” by Sir Richard F. Burton (my hero!) so I may be some time! :-)

      • Basalt was my first guess but GVP says that the volcano has produced basalt scoria cones and silicic trachy-basaltic to trachytic rocks.

        • There’s a bit more of it elsewhere in Saudi Arabia, if you check out Google Maps. But I don’t know the dates for the other stuff.

          • The Arabian eruption near 1258 might be a good candidate. Laki almost did not produce any visible ash layers in Iceland but was devastasting due to massive SO2 ejection. A fissure flank would explain the SO2 peak. And a lack of ash layer anywhere in the world.

        • & from:

          “The Arabian continental alkali basalt province: Part I. Evolution of Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia” VICTOR E. CAMP1 and M. JOHN ROOBOL
          http://gsabulletin.gsapubs.org/content/101/1/71.abstract

          “The Madinah basalt spans the full compositional range of Harrat Rahat; 103 analyzed samples comprise coarse-grained, dictytaxitic olivine transitional basalt (OTB) (8%), alkali olivine basalt (AOB) (47%), hawaiite (32%), mugearite (4%), benmoreite (8%), and trachyte (2%). Here scoria cones dominate, whereas shield volcanoes are sparse and occur only in the lower Madinah basalt; domes and associated pyroclastic deposits are common.”

    • Could we please have a post co-written by you and Lurking? This is utterly fascinating stuff! To put it in the historical perspective,1258 is just four years after the Seventh Crusade (1248-54) organised by Louis IX of France that ended in humiliating defeat and the Arab victors demanding and getting a huge ransom for his release. Of course Christianity would leap at stories indicative of divine retribution on the Infidels Moslems. The story does share some elements with the Plagues of Egypt, so rather than describing an actual eruption, I consider it likely that an actual eruption was one of the horrors incorporated.

      Some 750 years on, and God has still not inflicted any gratifying retribution on the Arabs, which ought to tell us that king Louis IX of France was not that high in God’s favour or that there is another Divine Agent protecting them. ;)

  14. How fascinating! I agree with Debbie,.Talla and Irpsit……..Volcano sleuths par excellence!

  17. http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/02/the-mysterious-missing-eruption-of-1258-a-d/
    In last 1000 years, climatic disruption was apparently largest in 1258, followed by 1816, and another event circa 1180 and then the 1452 event. All other events seem to be much smaller. However I do not trust this data completely as the 1315 event must have been also as dramatic judging by the historical records.

    What about the ~1180 event, do we have a source volcano?

    On the 1258 event: First we must know about how much ash is really detected at the sediment deposits in lake Malawi in Africa in 1258. That probably gives us the strongest clue to where a large eruption happened. If that is significant then the source might be African. One example could be Fentale or any other rift volcano in Africa or even one volcano within the Cameroon line. Otherwise, if that ash is just microscopical then the source can be anywhere.

    Most likely the source is tropical. Ash is equally deposited in both polar ice cores. It’s fairly logical that conclusion. This shorterns the list to Latin and South America, Pacific, Indonesia or Africa as the source. Then, we must know if a visible haze was observed in Europe or somewhere else.

  19. Since we have all been yammering about the 1258 “SO2 spike” and discussing about where it may have come from… has any body actually looked at the spike?

    Here’s your chance.

    http://i47.tinypic.com/16gn58g.png

    About a year ago, I ran across a program called CalPal… its used for Glacial Radiocarbon Calibration. No.. I don’t know how to use it, but contained in it are a lot of trace gas info from the ice cores.

    Since the 1258 thing came back up… and I went unsuccessfully searching for the actual data, at least in a version that I could cite (got plenty of data from parts unknown… beats me where I picked it up from) I finally remembered that I had this gem sitting on my computer. I was able to extract the raw data file into Excel and coerce it’s dating scheme into something we could understand.

    I’ve taken the liberty to tag some of the higher Volcanic SO2 spike so that they can be ruminated about when we get done chewing on 1258.

    Enjoy.

    • Since I already have it qued up.. here is the same set going back to about 2000 BC.

      http://i47.tinypic.com/4kkahe.png

      Negative years will be off by 1 since there is no such thing as year “zero.”

      Vesuvius seems to equate to the one at 78.7… which make sense, historically it was 79 AD.

      Santorini is a bit more difficult, Archeology says 1500 BC, radiocarbon says 1645–1600 BC, and we have two spikes that could be it. 1693 BC, which is a bit off, and 1622 BC which is in the ballpark (and a bit smaller). Then there is the 1452 BC one that comes a bit later.

      • good, you can see Eldgjá there (939), the unknown 1177 eruption, one of the peaks around year “zero” is probably the Hatepe eruption from Taupo. Unknown what the first 3 eruptions were, around 3000 BC. Recent years peak: probably also human pollution.

    • As for what was going on in 1970, dunno, four VEI-3 eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere could be contenders.

      Jan Mayen 	Norway 	1970  Sep 18  	VEI-3
Hekla 	        Iceland 1970  May 5  	VEI-3
Karymsky 	Russia 	1970  May 11  	VEI-3
Kolokol Group 	Russia 	1970  Feb  	VEI-3

      (From GVP)

      • Anything not too distant from Greenland is a contender. Jan Mayen and Hekla from this list would be possibles. Or a larger eruption in 1969 or, at a stretch, 1968 (it takes time for light aersols to settle on the ice cap).

    • Yet Another Note….

      Just because an eruption doesn’t show up in the SO2 trace…. that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Not all volcanoes have the same SO2 concentration, also the prevailing wind may have taken it somewhere else rather than depositing it with the ice…. which depends on snowfall.

    • And now… a question. Because I don’t flipping know.

      The Volcanic SO2 plot shows that SO2 specifically associated with volcanoes. There are other data sets available, such as total SO2.

      My question… since some of those data sets show HUMONGOUS amount of SO2, and they are not the Volcanic SO2 record… where the hell did the SO2 come from? Don’t tell me a factory or some other man made contrivance… they weren’t around… 30,000 years ago.

      http://www.calpal.de/calpal/manual/ClimateLit/5_gisp2_1_So2.htm

      • Curioser and Curioser. I am intrigued by the huge SO2 spike – 62.4 BC about the same size as the 1258 one. I have done a cursory hunt and cannot find an exact match

      • How does the total SO2 correlate to ice ages? 70,000 bc to 10,000 bc was the Weichselian stage of the Upper Pleistocene.

        And where was the MAR in relation to Greenland then :?

        • Forget Greenland…
          The hotspot was 370 to 2590 meters closer to Greenland.
          We are millions of years since the Greenlandic volcanism died out.

    • Could we please have a post co-written by you and Talla? This is truly fascinating stuff!

    • This is an answer to all of your plots.
      First the missing eruption. It is so large that it is impossible that it was in Indonesia, full stop. It is after looking at it to large to have been onland. We are after all talking about an event that should have gouged out something in the vicinity of more than 100 cubic kilometers of DRE as a minimum, and it would still need to be a very gassy VEI-7. It would most likely be upwards a very large VEI-7 to show like that spike. And that one we would know about.
      So, I would go on a look about in the ocean. That is the only reasonable explanation for nobody finding it. Either a very large eruption below water, or an fairly sized Island going up into Splinters Krakatoa style.
      Since there is both ash and SO2 on both poles I would say that it was an andesitic subduction volcano. If it had been SO2 only I would have said a hotspot volcano.

      Then over to the longplot.
      The 54K spike is most likely the Pantelleria Green Tuff Ignimbrite. For those who missed it, Pantelleria is by far the largest volcano that can directly affect Europe. If that eruption happened today half of Europe would be toast together with the conflict in the middle east and all of north Africa north of the Atlas Mountain Range.

      • Aha! As I have been reading the posts about the missing 1258 eruption, one question kept crossing my simple mind – Why can’t they find it? Simple answer – It no longer exists. I posted this question a couple of days ago – Could it have been an underwater eruption or an island that blew itself into non existence? Much self satisfaction that you have come to the same conclusion. :D

        • I have had the same idea since I first heard about the 1258. Such large eruptions would have left a huge impact localy. And there simply are no traces of a local human extinction on land, and believe me, a VEI 7 from the usual suspects around the equator would have left a lot of sources to dig into.
          That “only” leaves the ocean, and there that is a lot to dig into and it would not necessariily leave any traces other than ash and SO2.

          • So, as there are no records you could put it in the new world, lots of andesitic volcanoes around. Is there a precolombian civilisation disapearing at the same time ? Toltecs ?

  21. Still puzzled by the reports of an EQ and noises again last night in El Hierro the people who reported this live in the Frontera area and have posted many times on the Avcan FB page.
    Maybe it was just a man made noise after all as IGN have not reported anything.

  22. I think I have a candidate for the 1258…
    First of all remember that both we and the Arabs have changed our calendars since then. So everything is off with a few months on both sides.

    This came to me after reading Tallas comment up above about Harrahs eruption outside of Medina. That one is of course not the eruption in question. But, rift eruptions do not happen in an subduction zone like that without having a large mother volcano somewhere.
    And there is a very large somewhere down to the south, south-west, south-east and east of Medina. Albeit a bit far.
    Yemen is famous for other things than political radicalism (previously comunism and now other nutters). It should also be famous for having had the largest ever subduction eruptions. During the last 100 million years it has exploded in a highly Blinged Style in periods. Remember last years eruption in the Red Sea? Well, there are actually eruptions there almost every year, and those are most often below the water and small so nobody notices them. Right now the region is in one of its low seasons so it will only erupt between VEI-2 and VEI-7. There are literally hundreds of sub-aquatic calderas there if one checks a bit at Google Earth, and the double-volcanic zone spans thousands of kilometers. The eruptions are also rich in SO2.
    I bet we can find our culprit there and not in Indonesia.

    If you want an onland example, look at Djiboutis assortment of Calderas. Magnificent. The port has a very nice resurgent dome/volcanic eruption cone in the middle.

    We just tend to forget this area when we are talking about the largest ever volcano. While we are running around the planet searching for humongous volcanic areas Yemen trenches are just sitting there smiling with the planets largest waterpipe.

    • Very interesting article, Ursh!
      It sort of confirms what Dr. Clive Oppenheimer describes in his book, “Eruptions that Shook the world”.
      Chapter 6.4.2 describes this hypothesis that relates changes in the rates of magnetic reversals over the past half-billion years to major extinction events (attributed by the authors mainly to LIPS).
      According to the book, Courtillot and Olsen from The Paris Institute du Globe and USA John Hopkins University, respectively, developed this theory where “superchrons” (30-50 million-year periods of no magnetic reversals) occur in intervals of circa 200 million years and are caused by mantle convection and further cooling of subducting slabs which sink back to the boundary. Intense periods of mantle convection and mantle plume formation respond for mass extinction events which, in turn, take place before superchrons. So, the core-mantle boundary should act as a “mantle plume nursery” and the process is likely to be interrupted when cold subducting slabs reach this boundary and slow down the convection processes, thence, inhibiting, for longer periods, the magnetic reversals. After another million-years period, the slabs are heated by conduction from the proximity to the hot core and, thus becoming less dense, they start to flow upwards resuming the convective processes by floating back to the lithosphere and restarting the whole cycle of LIPS, mantle plumes, intense volcanism and ulterior extension events. Hard to explain, but fascinating when you grasp the idea.

  24. As I thought he would, Sir Richard Francis Burton came up with the goods on the eruption at Medina. First he says that the he travelled over the large bed of lava (which is visible on Google maps) described as “volcanic, abounding in basalts and scoriae, more or less porous.” He made diligent enquiries about active volcanoes in the area and heard of none.

    In a two-page footnote he talks about the 1256 eruption. A chronicle called the “Jazb al-Kulub” describes what happened in the year A.H. 654 (our 1256). I paraphrase as follows: Firstly terrible earthquakes accompanied by a thundering noise, shook the town: 14 – 18 each night. This was followed by a fire bursting out in the directon of Al-Hijaz (eastward from Medina), “it resembled a vast city with a turretted and battlemental fort”, “it roared, burned and melted like a sea everything that came in its way. Presently red and bluish streams, bursting from it, ran close to Al-Madinah; and at the same time, the city was fanned by a cooling zephyr from the same direction.” An eye-witness called Al-Kistlani says that “The brilliant light of the volcano made the face of the country as bright as day”, “The interior of the Harim was as if the sun shone upon is, so that men worked and required nought of the sun and moon (the latter of which was also eclipsed?).” [That question mark is Burton's]. The light was bright enough to be seen at Mecca. Historians say the stream was from 14 to 16 miles long and 4 miles wide with a depth of 9ft. It flowed like a torrent with the waves of a sea. The rocks it melted “stood up as a wall” and kept the Bedouin out (a good thing from the citizens point of view). Another historian, Jamal Matari, says that the flames destroyed the stones but spared the trees, men sent by the governor to inspect the fire felt no heat, the feathers of an arrow shot into it were burned while the shaft remained whole. This is because of the sanctity of the trees in the area. However, another historian, Al-Kistlani, asserts that the fire was so vehement that no one could approach within 2 arrowflights. The citizens, even women and children, engaged in ceaseless prayer and the lava field turned northward. The current ran for three whole months. In the same year occurred the burning of the Prophet’s Mosque and the inundation of Baghdad by the Tigris. The following year the Tartars appeared from the east.

    All this is from Personal Narrative of a Pilgrimage to Al-Madinah & Meccah by Captain Sir Richard F. Burton, Memorial Edition, Volume II pp60-61. This is my own book so I don’t have an internet link, sorry. Over to volcanoholics to interpret! :-D

  25. And here is a list of Yemens Largest Eruptions in order of time. Sizes are in cubic kilometers.

    1. 28,5Ma Ethiopia/Yemen/Afar/Arabian ShieldShield, 350 000. Mixed eruption, half as Ignimbrites and tuffs erupted by the Yemen volcanic trenches.
    2. 29,5Ma Green tuff & Sam Ignimbrites, 6 800.
    3. 29,6Ma Jabal Kura’a Ignimbrite, 3 800.

    Hello mama!

    • The more I read, the more I see how much I missed.
      This is most likely the only place on earth where a small eruption is a VEI-2 to a small VEI-5, a medium sized eruption is a caldera forming VEI-5 to a small VEI-7, and a large is a large VEI-7 Ignimbrite and up to what can only be described as ridiculous.

    • * surface profile height-wise. From the air, they should be large but filled in now as a maar or with breccia.

  28. @ Carl, Are you refering to the Gulf of Aden volcano recorded in the IAVCEI catalog (that probably does not exist or the possible 2010 volcanic seismic swarm in the Gulf of Aden?

    • Hello, I am refering to that one and all the other calderas, cones, and whatnots that are lurking down below there.
      As I am going through my naval charts in combination with Google Earth I am getting more and more stunned. It is unbelievable. I have so far found more than a hundred sub-aquatic calderas, and I lost count of the larger cones fissures, ridges, shield and stratovolcanoes after reaching 1 000.
      If we then count that 1 in 10 of them are not dead by now (for the volcanoes, and half of the calderas since the really old ones should be filled in by silt, lava and other stuff) we get somewhere between 25 to 50 caldera forming volcanoes that are dormant or active, and somthing betwen 100 and 400 active sub-aquatic smaller volcanoes. Small here being a bit misguided. I found one that is jutting out 3000 meters straight out from the bottom of the ocean.

      • Well, send the results to my e-mail :-D

        I’ve been interested in this reigon ever since the island forming eruption in the Zubair Group. Also the Seven Brothers island’s could be Holocene.

        • Not much point in sending it since I am not doing a proper list. That would requite loads more data than I am going to bother to collect, and ontop of it I did not find a lot of good data. That is why I am resorting to naval charts and GE. This was mostly for my own private pleasure. I will though write a post of my own about it and publish it in here.

      • A very large submarine volcanic eruption near the Yemen or Gulf of Aden may have caused a tsunami in the area. Are there any reports of unusual wave / flood activity at that time?

        • There might be something in the histories that Burton quoted – see my post above – but I have no idea where to find them, if they are even on line.

        • Well if you read the story of the red sea crossing by Moses, seems the area is quite tsunami prone (only joking of course….)

          • Could explain also some of the plagues of Egypt….plague of Hail and plague of darkness.
            For the plague of frogs I can only surmise of an early settlement of french people ancestors getting to the area and chasing the poor batracians. If we found only some garlic remnants…. :mrgreen:

      • I don’t see any caldera style formations in google earth when looking to the red sea and areas near yemen. That being said, this is really interesting, and I’ll be looking forward to your post.

        • Also, wouldn’t any large VEI 7 eruption be noticed if it formed in the Red Sea? Underwater or not, an eruption of this scale would easily be noticed and recorded.

          • The tartars invaded the year before – 1257 – so the scholars might have concentrated on writing about that. The survival of historical narratives is largely by luck. There may have been quite a few records made of an eruption that have been destroyed in the seven centuries since then – either by accident (fire, flood, insect damage), or design (regarded as heretical, not relevant, boring).

    • There has been a 1.8 at only 14km deep this morning sorry using my phone cant post the link.

    • This is quite noteworthy. If Sotara has a proper eruption, it will be quite large. Sotara either erupts in an effusive manner, or erupts in a highly explosive ignimbrite / caldera forming fashion. Judging the fact that there has been no recorded activity, it’s probably more likely to erupt in an explosive fashion if it decided to blow it’s lid, then start with a more effusive stage post-caldera formation.

      • Yeah, this could be true. Sotara definitely falls under the “very understudied” volcano category (GVP has very little on it, doesn’t even have a picture).

        What is known is that it’s had 3 caldera forming eruptions, has had effusive eruptive processes post-caldera (including lava flows), no eruptions have likely occurred in the last 100 years, and the magma is pretty viscous with a andesitic / dacitic profile.

        I shouldn’t say that it’s necessarily going to form a huge eruption if it does erupt, as it could easily go into another effusive stage. That being said, I can’t remember many highly viscous stratovolcanoes with an explosive history that “wake up” after a long period of slumber with effusive activity. I feel it’s “generally” more common for effusive activity to occur after a large eruption occurs after the magma chamber and volcanic structure is severely damaged and magma can escape much easier.

        That being said, Popocatapetl has gone relatively effusive after a long period of rest, but Popo also doesn’t have a history of ignimbrite eruptions in it’s history.

        Here is about the only paper I found on Sotara – http://irdal.ird.fr/PDF/ISAG_2008/ISAG2008_tellez_al.pdf

  31. If the figures for the GPS at El Hierro are correct and not due to some other phenomena we should be seeing an uptick in earthquake activity within the next 48 hours. But, take this with a pinch of salt, it might be something else causing it. We need more data points to confirm, especially since there is not real corresponding change in ES and NE motion. And a general uniform uplift would require something rather large coming up.

  32. Location of 1258 deposits. – If I understand the last sentence well, a thick ash layer from the 1258 eruption has been located between sediments in the Lake Malawi. From “Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium” by Emile Geay et al, pag. 6-7.
    http://www.climategeology.ethz.ch/publications/2008_Emile-Geay_et_al.pdf

    “The year 1258 (1259 in some chronologies) features an outstanding volcanic anomaly (Langway et al. 1988; Palais et al. 1992) that has been found
    - in nine Northern Hemisphere ice core time series from seven cores (NGT-B20, GISP2, A77, A84, Renland, NorthGRIP1, and Crete), three of which had sulfate signals used to estimate the stratospheric aerosol loading. (C. Gao 2006, personal communication). All are from Greenland except A77 and A84, sampled from the nearby Agassiz Ice Cap on Ellesmere Island, Canada.
    - in six Southern Hemisphere (Antartica) ice cores (SP2001c1, Plateau Remote, TalosDome, G15, B32, PS1), five of which have sulfate records. (C. Gao 2006, personal communication).
    - in Lake Malawi sediments (1°S, 34.5°E), as a thick ash layer of age within dating uncertainties (100 yr) of 1258 A.D. (T. C. Johnson 2006, personal communication).”

    • Lake Malawi?
      Kibo Crater Mount Kilimanjaro.
      Ngozi, Kitulu Pumice. Caldera, Erupted last 1450.

      But the most likely candidate would be Rungwe that erupted 1250 +- 40 years. (Radiocarbon dating)
      http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0202-166

      The other option would of course be the Oku volcanic field.

      Most likely not related (Malawi Ash) since there are 3 local volcanoes that erupted around the corresponding time.

      • It seems to me that the ash has been determined 1258-proof.
        From http://www.archaeology.co.uk/articles/features/londons-volcanic-winter.htm ,
        London’s volcanic winter:
        “Despite its magnitude, the identity of the volcano responsible remains a mystery. El Chichón in Mexico, Quilotoa in Ecuador and, most recently, a site in Indonesia have all been named as possible culprits. But while the source of the sulphates remains elusive, the eruption’s fingerprints can be found around the globe. Ice cores from both the northern hemisphere and Antarctica preserve its debris, while a thick layer of ash lies among the sediments in Lake Malawi, nestled between Mozambique and Tanzania.”

        • So you’re saying the source is in the Mocambique-Tanzania area? If not, I’d like to see the explanation of how it can be just a sprinkle locally while thousands of miles away there’s a thick layer. ;)

        • Nothing new volcanically there – geologists have swarmed all over East Africa and every eruption has been noted I think. All the volcanoes in the Malawi part of the Rift are worn away to stumps.

          • (Memo to self – must not circumlocute as much.)

            What I meant by the “Mocambique-Tanzania area” is Africa except the bit above the Sahara. After all, we are chasing something big and Toba left ash deposits up to six meters thick (very local) as far away in India. A large-ish VEI 7 in the Rift up to Yemen, north (Ethipoia, Soudan) or west (Cameroon) would fit the bill.

    • I often wondered if something in the Kermadecs was involved. Check out Healy (1360 CE) or even McCauley (4360 BC) (wrong dates I know, but big eruptions).

  34. tongariro and white island together. I just asked an old relative. seems that the older layfolk in the tuwharetoa taupo are looking at Ngauruhoe as the next thing. just non scientific data collected through generations so shouldnt be worth a pinch of salt.

      • also a lot of EQ showed up in the drums for Ngauruhoe for the last couple of month and not Tongariro, was surprised when it erupted and not where most of the EQ where, I mentioned it here before a while ago

      • The Maoris only arrived on New Zealand c1200 AD or so, so I wonder what historical eruptions feature in their mythologies?

    • There is a Maori legend about volcanoes that explains the creation of the islands. The Maori are descendants of Polynesians who arrived to the islands well before of Englishmen.
      The legend says that Ruapehu and Taranaki were giants. They fell in love with Tongariro and decided to fight for it. Ruapehu Taranaki threw himself on that in retaliation the scalded with water from its crater. Taranaki Ruapehu then threw rocks and destroyed his cone. But it managed to recover some fragments of its cone, melts them and throw them back. Taranaki was defeated and withdrew to the coast where he took refuge and plans his revenge.

  36. There is talk on the Avcan Facebook Page that movements have been felt in the South of Fuerteventura today and there has been a small earthquake.

    ,En el sur de Fuerteventura hemos sentido algo extraño hoy… Un ruido corto seguido de una pequeña vibración.
    Pensaba que lo había sentido yo solo, pero mi hija que estaba al lado y mi mujer que estaba a unos 50 metros también lo sintieron.
    Que raro!!!!

    In the South of Fuerteventura we felt something strange today… A short noise followed by a small vibration.
    I thought that it had felt I only, but also felt my daughter who was on the side and my wife that was 50 metres.
    How strange! ,

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=25ivkp4&s=6

  39. Reykjanes swarm.

    Thursday
    09.08.2012 18:32:56 63.819 -22.606 5.8 km 1.7 90.01 5.3 km ENE of Reykjanestá
    Thursday
    09.08.2012 18:23:53 63.825 -22.610 5.6 km 2.2 90.02 5.4 km ENE of Reykjanestá
    Thursday
    09.08.2012 18:22:24 63.833 -22.561 1.1 km 2.4 90.01 5.8 km W of Grindavík
    Thursday
    09.08.2012 18:22:15 63.843 -22.605 6.6 km 1.9 90.01 6.8 km NE of Reykjanestá
    Thursday
    09.08.2012 18:20:46 63.825 -22.606 5.5 km 1.7 78.3 5.6 km ENE of Reykjanestá

  40. OT but stunning photos of a beauty spot and the water in France turned red because of the high salt content.

  42. I have not been able to see the island of El Hierro for a few weeks now, due to climatic conditions. This evening I could see it quite well, plus La Gomera and La Palma. However now that it is dark, I can see a light more or less where El Hierro is, which is a bit unusual because normally I can only see lights on La Gomera, never on El Hierro or La Palma as they are too far away…I cannot see anything strange on any of the graphs, so assume the light is that of a boat – but it must be quite a large one for me to be able to see it from here.

    • Can you describe the light? If the light is steady and white, it is probably man-made; flood lights maybe :?

  43. Slightly OT, but is the central turkey Cappadoccia province largely extinct volcanically?

  44. How accurate are the dates in ice-core samples? And what assumptions are made about the rates of ice build up and ice melting?

  46. The reason it may all be kicking off near Taupo, is due to my 30th birthday. This was 11 years ago, but there is a park in the middle, with a big rock in a pond with 2 eagles or something mounted on the top at each end of the rock. In my less than sober state I climbed up said small rock (nekkid!) and sat in the middle…………..only for the front eagle or whatever it was to fall off into the pond. I now apologies for this, this was not my intention, I just wanted a few pictures for my birthday! I picked up the said eagle and placed it back in its rightful place, good as new hopefully!. The water in the pond was very cold so in no way was little me responsible!

  47. Found a VEI6, which may be of interest: Quilotoa 1280? Produces dacite lavas so not the best match to GeoLurkings analysis of the ash, which seems to indicate rhyolite. Other Andean calderas / maars may be a better match but GVP does not list many eruptions for them in the right time period (there appear to be gaps).

    • There are so many andean volcanoes, its impossible to tell since most of them are under studied. If this eruption was the largest of the last 7000 years as some have speculated, quilotoa would seem a bit underpowered as a vei 6.

    • I analyzed ash? If you have a link to the geochemistry I would love to plot it and compare.

      All I had on 1258 was an interesting Google image of what may be flood basalt. I’m still seeking geochem data on 1258.

      MEANWHILE… today, I drove. It was a most interesting drive. Crestview Florida has a 4 lane unlimited access road up through the middle of it, and very little room along the side… the businesses are close to the road, and it handles all the traffic coming out of Destin, Valpariso, Niceville, Ft Walton Beach as they try to get up to the Interstate… I-10. It is notorious (in my book) for accidents. Today, it was storming. That means you watch your driving really close and allow extra room for people to mess up. I’m behind a black SUV who is being visibly cautious. At 6500 lbs, I can understand why. (it’s essentially a full size pickup, F-250 equivalent) Behind the SUV, is a very pissed off white newer model sports car.. riding his arse, maybe as close as 3 to 5 feet. I’m sitting back watching this and monitoring the outside lane in case I need to use it. Sure enough, the sports car guns it and darts to the outside lane. The first thing through my mind was “this isn’t gonna end good.” As I though, the rear end of the sports car got loose and he did a 360° spin-out across in front of the SUV, passing through the median backwards, and over the other two lanes, coming to rest in a driveway on the other side of the road.

      Then.. he/she/it did the most profound thing that I could think of. They darted back across the road, through the median, and took up position behind me… laying on the horn as if I had anything to do with it. Amused, I matched speed with the truck next to me until the car figured out what to do. At the light, they cut down the turn lane, ran the red light and took off for the Interstate.

      And not one singe vehicle was touched by another while this all transpired. I was amazed.

      Anyway… as a reward for myself… here is a plot of Total SO2 vs Volcanic SO2 from the GRIP2 data set, along with CO2 from the Byrd Ice Core.

      http://i50.tinypic.com/x4hk3o.png

      It runs back to about 72,000 BC. I have labeled the Wisconsin Glaciation period and the Younger Dryas.

      The interesting thing, is notice that the Volcanic SO2 picks up as the glaciation receded. That is probably a function of lithostatic rebound and decompression melting.

        • The thing i wonder is what eruptions causedthe major so2 spikes between 8000-10000 years ago?

          I was trying to stick annotations to the eruptions dating back through the timeline, and most of the spikes lined up with the major eruptions in the last 70,000 yrs. That being said, i couldnt find eruptions that corrollated with the large spikes 8000 to 10000 years back. I know the spikes are embellished by the overall growth of activity post glaciation, but they still must have been some major eruption.

        • Could it come from Space? My first thought was the Sun but that seems to be hydrogen and helium, sulphur does not get a mention.

          • I know that Gypsum is a ready store of suphur… in the form of sulfate. There are a lot of others (Sulfide and sulfate)… but what could cause them to release copious amounts of SO2? Coal fires can occur naturally… sort of. And there are mudvolcanoes that erupt and burn with no outside help. Both could be a potential source.

            Any one have an idea about this?

          • Hmm..

            Wackipedia:

            There is no significant amount of sulfur held in the atmosphere with all of it coming from either sea spray or windblown sulfur rich dust,[4] neither of which is long lived in the atmosphere. In recent times the large annual input of sulfur from the burning of coal and other fossil fuels adds a substantial amount SO2 which acts as an air pollutant. In the geologic past, igneous intrusions into coal measures have caused large scale burning of these measures, and consequential release of sulfur to the atmosphere. This has led to substantial disruption to the climate system, and is one of the proposed causes of the great dying.

            Dimethylsulfide [(CH3)2S or DMS] is produced by the decomposition of dimethylsulfoniopropionate DMSP) from dying phytoplankton cells in the shallow levels of the ocean, and is the major biogenic gas emitted from the sea, where it is responsible for the distinctive “smell of the sea” along coastlines.[1] DMS is the largest natural source of sulfur gas, but still only has a residence time of about one day in the atmosphere and a majority of it is redeposited in the oceans rather than making it to land. However, it is a significant factor in the climate system, as it is involved in the formation of clouds.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_cycle

            Judging from those peaks… a lot of phytoplankton was jumping around. During a glaciation.

        • It’s not the first time. I was having the wife’s car towed to the shop because it had a problem that I didn’t have time to deal with, I had a schedule to keep and calls to make. The time sink of getting her car on the way to the shop was putting me behind. After it got loaded up and on the way, I noticed that I had a flat. Pull the nail and repair it, air the tire up and I’m good.

          The next day, the wife reads in the paper that there was a multi-car incident on the Interstate… right about where I would have been at had I not been delayed even further by the flat.

          Object lesson… if something messes with your schedule, don’t curse it, deal with it. It might be there you keep you out of trouble.

          • I second that, take care on the roads, I don’t know why, there just seems to many idiots on it who think the road is for them

      • The anlysis I was referring to was the one provided in the edited table under your comment dated 08/08/2012 at 00:57:

        Component/GISP2/S Pole/E Chicon1/ElChicon
        SiO2/69.13/70.07/70.00/70.81
        TiO2/0.51/0.50/0.24/0.30
        Al2O3/15.43/15.28/16.59/15.38
        Fe2O3/3.73/3.32/1.35/1.69
        MnO/ – / – /0.04/ -
        MgO/0.95/0.86/ 0.18/0.28
        CaO/2.03/1.82/1.92/2.28
        Na2O/3.40/3.41/4.65/3.49
        K20/4.80/4.74/ 5.03/5.77

        The table looked a lot nicer in the tinypic link.

      • Volcanic SO2 picks up as glaciation receded could be because alot of volcanic activity was subglacial in the ice ages so the SO2 / ash did not make it into the atmosphere.

        Don’t know if ice-melt would in itself release SO2 in large quantities.

        • * that’s if the ice held SO2/sulphates from subglacial activity.

          Past my bed time so better retire. BBGN & schleep well.

      • Ruapehu has been rumbling for a while now, NZ has a lot of activity EQ wise, most seems to go under the radar as the rest of the world goes, another area I am concerned about is around the Banks volcano on the South Island, supposed to be extinct, just got a feeling about it

        • The use of the word extinct has more to do with wishful thinking than scientific fact it seems. Not long ago, of course I cannot remember the who, where and when, a politician was quoted as saying the local volcano was extinct because it hadn’t erupted for over a hundred years. Tell that to the people of Montserrat!

          So yes, anything considered extinct shouldn’t be considered truly extinct unless it hasn’t erupted for a hundred thousand years or so – and then there’s always the revenants to consider.

          • Ursh, the two shield volcanoes that make up Banks peninsula are truly extinct, no doubt about it. They formed about 8 million years ago, haven’t erupted since and are heavily eroded (another good sign they are in the volcanic graveyard).

          • wow, you’re keen! we’ve got quite enough happening in the TVZ (not to mention the Kermadecs, Taranaki and Auckland) to keep us busy as it is. Mind you, both Dunedin and Banks Peninsula are interesting as they are intraplate volcanoes (nice shield basalt numbers) which seem to pop up from time to time. Intriguing beasts.

            Actually Oz is not without its active volcanism either btw. I’ll see if I can find an article Erik did on it over at Eruptions. (in the middle of office work ;-)

      • Almost certainly wind (the constant tremor) and skilift operation (the irregular bursts of noise).. Ruapehu almost always looks like this. Makes it kind of difficult to watch. Ngauruhoe is another one that is dialled way up and seems to pick up every wind gust. You can see how it reacts much more sensitively to teleseisms than Tongariro.

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