Debunking Caldera Myths

Post by cbus20122:

Before this post gets read, I would like to note that I am not a scientist or geologist. If any information is inaccurate in this post, I would like to encourage the more scientifically inclined to correct me and inform readers if there are any inaccuracies!

Caldera Volcanoes.. The Mythological Beast of Volcanology

Aniakchak Caldera - Alaska

Image Wikimedia Commons : Aniakchak Caldera – Alaska

If you’ve ever paid attention to volcanoes, there is a good chance you’re familiar with what a caldera is. For those who are new to the terminology, a caldera is a collapse structure that forms when the magma chamber below a volcano empties, leaving the overlying rock to subside into the ground. Calderas are to volcanoes what an atom bomb is to explosives. They’re the largest, most destructive, and rarest variety around, and because of that, they’re incredibly interesting.

Caldera forming eruptions are interesting and notable to scientists and casual observers alike since they’re both rare, and incredibly powerful. In fact, some caldera-forming eruptions can be so powerful, that they’ve been associated with global climate change, and small-scale extinction events. Due to their potentially cataclysmic nature, there is a lot of misinformation and doom & gloom in the press and media.
Chances are, you’ve heard the title “supervolcano”. The term “supervolcano” was coined by the media to describe the largest caldera-forming eruptions on earth. Ever since the inception of the term, it’s been used to describe any massive volcanic eruption, the likes which haven’t been seen in the modern era. So what are some common myths about calderas and supervolcanoes? Read the guide below!

Debunking Myths Associated With Calderas

MythThere Are Only 6-7 Supervolcanoes on Earth

Somewhere along the line, the media decided that there were less than 10 supervolcanoes on earth. This myth is a bit difficult to dispel, because there is no real cutoff between “supervolcano” and “really large caldera” as it’s not a true scientific term.

Campi Flegrei in Italy is frequently described as a supervolcano, yet it’s not even 1/10 the size of Lake Toba. If we were to assume that Campi Flegrei is a proper supervolcano, then that means there are over 100 known supervolcanoes on our planet, and it would be on the lower end of the size spectrum. If we’re defining “supervolcano” by capability of producing a VEI – 8 eruption, then it’s true that there are only a few volcanic systems with this capability.

Myth – All Calderas form from explosive eruptions

While more calderas form as a result of a violent eruption, some caldera systems form from a gradual subsistence. Hawaiian volcanoes have calderas that formed slowly following the gradual effusion of basaltic magma, which caused a gradual drop in the size of the magma chamber. Subsistence calderas form most often in mafic shield volcanoes, which are common in oceanic hotspots such as the Galapagos, or the Hawaiian Islands.

Myth – Volcanoes that have had a violent caldera forming eruption are extremely violent by nature

Caldera forming eruptions are more of a cyclical process then they are indicative of a Volcano’s overall nature. Even extremely violent and active volcanoes such as Krakatoa show that they’ll stay active with small-scale eruptions post-collapse. A caldera-forming event typically happens only after a volcanic system has been “plugged” up for a long enough time, allowing pressure to build and magma to evolve to a degree that it can erupt in a dramatic fashion. For some volcanoes, this takes a very long time, others like Krakatoa can recharge much quicker. Some caldera volcanoes will create multiple massive caldera-forming eruptions. Others will only go massive one time, then they’ll sprout several smaller volcanoes after the initial caldera collapse event.

It’s also important to note that there are different varieties of explosive calderas. Caldera volcanoes formed from andesitic arc-volcanism behave in a much different fashion than Caldera volcanoes that form from basaltic rift-oriented volcanism, which typically erupt effusive basalt eruptions, but can create massive rhyolitic eruptions on rare occasion. These caldera systems are usually indicative of a large heat source (basaltic magma) transforming country rock into Rhyolite (the most explosive variety of magma) which later erupts after being disturbed by a fresh injection of basaltic magma.

Myth – Supervolcanoes Are Formed By Hotspots

The largest caldera systems in the world all have a few things in common, yet being hot spot volcanoes is not a similar trait they share. In fact, Yellowstone is the only supervolcano that is known to be formed in association with a mantle plume (hot spot), whereas most other supervolcanoes are located in subduction arcs. What they do have in common is extremely hot and shallow heat sources, typically produced by continental rifting. Rifting occurs when land pulls apart due to largely tectonic reasons. Rifting lowers underlying pressure and thins the surface, which in turn pulls magma and hot rock closer to the surface. Eventually, these large shallow heat sources melt and evolve country rock (often granite) into our familiar friend Rhyolite. If you accumulate enough Rhyolite, let it evolve for a long enough time, then set it off with a fresh injection of magma, you have the ingredients for a massive eruption.

For Yellowstone, the heat source comes from the mantle plume, instead of a rift-oriented heat source (although it’s likely some rifting is occurring as well).

Google Earth Overlays For Caldera Systems – Calderas Outlined in Green or Red (screenshots)

Ecuador Calderas

Ecuador has quite a few massive caldera systems, with the Chacana caldera being the largest

Kamchatka Calderas

Of the 11 large calderas in Kamchatka, the smallest is still 10 square KM..

Cbus20122

Lost Weekend…

Photograph from Wikipemedia Commons. Menengai Caldera in Kenya, one of the largest calderas on the planet.

How to kill a weekend.

As some of you have observed, last week I asked for anyone running across a caldera size and eruption volume to give me a quick shout here on the forums. Ostensibly, I was going to compile a spreadsheet in order to look at Hagstrum’s hotspot list compared to large caldera locations. Despite Carl’s disdain for the Antipode Impact idea, I think Hagstrum’s hotspot list is still pretty good, and it collates several other lists and weeds out some of the less than accepted ones.

While trudging through the calderas that were readily supplied, grabbing what info I could and trying to stay focused on DRE, the question of DRE again came up again in discussions. It wasn’t an actual argument or disagreement, but it did give me enough doubt in my data to seek other sources. Along the way, I found “Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways” by Peter L. Ward. Well, to be truthful, I didn’t find that first, I found his table that supports his paper. I had to dig around to find the paper. I HIGHLY recommend the table. It is awesome. While the focus is on SO2 and climate change, they include the names of the tephra deposits that go with specific eruptions. Not all, but quite a few.

From his table, and with the re-worked VolcanoCafe user provided data, I came up with this (distraction#1) :

The first thing I would like to point out, is that it’s a log-log plot. The formula is a bit cantankerous to work with in Excel or on a calculator. (uses 10 raised to a power from a function that then has a logarithm in it.) The log-log plot was the only way to make it come out halfway usable. This formula was derived with DPlot, and in order to minimize the sigma fight (which I lost, quite readily) I left the individual points in place so that you can see just how far the estimate can be off. In one incarnation, I came up with the estimated value being within 0.77 of the actual value, 75% of the time. At this point I needed a beer and would continue later.

Moving back to the plot, and poking around in the text of the paper, I found that Professor Yukio Hayakawa of Gunma University (Japan) had compiled a list of large eruptions covering the last 2000 years. I had to go find that. Unfortunately, the list cuts off at 1999 with the eruption of Hudson in Chile. Distraction #2 involved updating the list with everything that happened since. While using his calculation of eruption magnitude, I decided to look back at how some of the calculations compared to fresher data from GVP. The paper uses M=log(m) -7, where m is the erupted mass in kg.

That’s actually a pretty handy formula. It sort of tracks with the VEI range, (but it’s not VEI, that’s different) Eyjafjallajökull comes in at 4.62, Merapi at 4.55, and Sarychev Peak at 5.04 when using GVP combined lava and tephra (DRE) volumes.

Photograph from Wikimedia Commons. The Somma caldera of Mt Aso in Japan.

I did find a problem with the data though… it wasn’t lining up with GVP info very well. In general, it was running 1.13 times the Hayakawa data when redone with GVP info. Then I ran into the problem of GVP not having anything more than a guesstimate for the VEI of some of the volcanoes with no tephra or magma volumes listed. (and these were pretty recent eruptions) Since Hayakawa used a lower cutoff of M=3.8, anything less than a VEI-4 would not get that high. (VEI=3 yeilds an M of 3.43). Ehh… give up and go find something to gnaw on. I did find out that my stepson had retribution against the Pelicans. I had skipped the King Mackerel fishing since I was “in the groove” with the data. The bait fish they were using had a tendency to attract the Pelicans attention but was so swift that it would be gone by the time the bird got to it.

Referring to Carl’s “Did you notice the erupting Supervolcano?” post, you will note that in the reference, it doesn’t state what the size of the Tondano Caldera eruption was. Being focused primarily on the geothermal energy capability of the system, that is understandable. Using the outline from Figure 5 of the paper, and applying our handy formula, we can get a ballpark estimate of how much “stuff” was involved. At roughly 30km by 9km, it comes in at 197km³… give or take. Solid VEI-7, but the calculation has a sigma of 351km³ so it could quite easily have been large enough to be withing spitting distance of VEI-8. (900km³ is within 2 sigma, and VEI-8 is 1000km³) 

[Editors remark (Carl): I actually was a bit more devious than that. For this caldera I have a bit more data. Through drill core samples I know how much of the caldera is infilled with original ash and later ash. That gave me the actual depth of the original caldera bottom. One should recognize the difference between a subsided caldera and a blow out large caldera event. The first one gently drops with lost material, the other ejects more material due to explosion, in this case when the ocean hit the magma inside the magma chamber. I then calculated the amount of DRE by size. To get a low enough number I did not assume that there was anything ontop, ie. that the volcano was flat with the surrounding landscape. I then got a 918 km^3 of ejected DRE. Size is not everything as I discovered, depth is equally important. Add a couple of the known active volcanoes before the large caldera event and you are comfortably at the 1000 cubic range for a comparatively small caldera. I then did a sanity check against known ash depths for the layer across distance, and fount it to be within the ballpark.]

Okay, back to the data. In 2009, Deligne, Coles, and Sparks put out a paper entitled “Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions”. Yet another kick arse piece of work. In it, they use Extreme Value Theory to attack the problem of recurrence rates of large eruptions. Now that is something that I can appreciate. Extreme Value Theory deals with the failings of the Gaussian curve… out there in the tail, the realm of the infamous Black Swan that I am always yammering about exists. I have to go back and read that paper. Anyway, they mentioned Hayakawa’s list, and then using those methods, took the list back to the last 10000 years. Hmm… what can we do with that? I have the Greenland Temperature from the ice core data available, so I plotted it. It didn’t look that interesting until I ran an integral of the M value, then detrended it. That brings out the relative change in the sum that is going on without the actual data trend obscuring it. Plotted against the temperature, it look… “interesting”

There are a couple of peaks that seem coincidental, but for the most part, not a flipping thing there. I found it interesting that there was a peak in activity about 3527 BC and over all, volcanic activity has been declining ever since. I don’t know why that is. That’s just what it looks like. Being a glutton for punishment, and since it was “just sitting there,” I ran a couple of correlation routines on it to see if anything was present, but not obvious. Pearon’s correlation coefficient of 0.0111. Okay, I didn’t really expect a linear correlation. Spearman’s rho is supposed to be able to detect non-linear relationships, and I expected a higher score. I got 0.0017. What? It’s worse? “Wow.”

I have, on this computer, a program called “Formulize” by Eureqa. It’s free, unless you want to use a server farm. You can set it up and run it on your on PC and it will churn through whatever data you feed it and try to find a formula that relates the data sets. It’s the ultimate “beat the data with a stick” program. It can yield garbage… (generally if you feed it garbage) but it’s pretty good at coming up with something. So, I turned it loose. It turns out, that if you have a delay of 1405 days, it can roughly predict the temperature in Greenland from the running detrended integral of the Volcanic activity with a correlation coefficient of 0.7177. (Actually pretty good considering where we started out from) I calculated a sigma for the function based on what the formula predicted and what the actual data was.

That… was distraction 3.

What’s it all mean? Beats me. Greenland is just one point on the globe. There seems to be a 1405 and 1422 day delay relationship in the data, or about 3.8 years. Formulize also ground on a 4.13 and 4.44 year offset for a while. It was quite fun watching it dance back and forth with the delay. Make of it what you will.

And now the all important caveat: I am not a Geologist or trained in any of the fields that have been touched on in this post. My specialty is electronics and cross correlating threats… if you must know. (such as the 230 knot Shvall torpedo tested by Iran having been designed for 533mm torpedo tubes postulated as a design criteria… and the the Kilo class sub launched from Bandar Abass last week or so, having six 533 mm tubes. And that’s all from published data in various sources on the web.) But.. I don’t do that anymore. Volcanoes will have to do.

What to take away from this post, something that can be used by my fellow volcanophiles, is the first plot. You can find a hole in the ground in Google Earth and do a ballpark estimate of how much material may have come out of it when it initially formed. Remember that it may not have all happened at once.

Several thousand years of activity can produce the same effect.

Enjoy!

GEOLURKING


Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways – Ward (2009)
http://tetontectonics.org/Climate/SO2InitiatesClimateChange.pdf
And the table:
http://www.tetontectonics.org/Climate/Ward2009TableS1.pdf

Hayakawa Paleovolcanology Laboratory
http://www.edu.gunma-u.ac.jp/~hayakawa/English.html

Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions – Deligne, Coles, and Sparks (2010)
http://www.globalvolcanomodel.org/documents/Deligne%20et%20al%20(2010).pdf
Data Set
ftp://ftp.agu.org/apend/jb/2009jb006554/2009jb006554-ds01.pdf

A bit about VEI, and a numeric tool for amateurs.

Just to keep things in perspective.

Previously, Carl has pointed out just how lacking the VEI scale is.

VEI is based off of the total quantity of material that came out of the hole. In this respect, not a bad scale… but VEI means “Volcanic Explosivity Index.” What about the less energetic eruptions? Say, Kilauea? How about a volcano that makes a big show at first then oozes magma for a year afterwards? Eruptive sequences generally include the entire time that stuff is coming out of the ground, and in order to compare one eruption with another, one of the best comparison is by how much came out. VEI will be with us for some time, but it helps if you have some context as to what it means.

Eyjafjallajökull was out paced by Grímsvötn in about a day. Grímsvötn is a true monster, and fortunately for us, all it did was one of it’s lesser burps.

Here is a plot of volcanic plume height over a period of hours, and how much material, in “Dense Rock Equivalent” (DRE) that equates to. The formula was derived from Mastin et al, who essentially did an update on Sparks’ equation. The purpose was to get an estimate of the eruptive rate of a volcano based on sporadic or sparse information… such as only having plume height data of a remote volcano off in the middle of nowhere.

Image by GeoLurking. Click for larger image.

As you can see, for a sustained plume height at the indicated level, the mass adds up over time. As time goes on, eventually different levels of VEI are reached.

You can also see how Grímsvötn blew the doors off of Eyjafjallajökull’s “puny” eruption.

In “A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic
ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions”  L.G. Mastin et al there is a formula that allows a computation of the mass ejection rate based on plume height.

http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~raman/papers/MastinetalJVGR09.pdf

It’s geared mainly towards volcanoes located in remote areas (such as Cleveland) and proves to be a handy tool if you put in a little work.

VAAC reports are probably the most handy reports available for any given eruption. VAAC is most concerned about keeping aircraft from plummeting out of the sky, so they try to stay on top of the hazard. This also means that their reports, though good, are more focused on the threat than the volcano. What the volcano is actually doing is little concern for them… what it did do is the most important. This means that once a plume is lofted into the air, the max elevation of the plume sort of remains fixed until it dissipates. The threat envelope will move around with the cloud… and generally the max elevation will remain mostly fixed.

If you are lucky, the VAAC report will state somewhere in the warning what the plume height is over the volcano. That is the data that a volcanophile will keep track of. That gives you the current state of the eruption.

Taking the time stamps for each report, along with the height of the plume over the volcano, and adding in the heights and time stamps from what ever geological agency reports, you can get a pretty decent record of the activity levels, and make a rough estimation (using Mastin et al) of the total amount ejected.

You do this by interpolating the rate from one data point to the next. You could connect the dots using a straight linear trend, or you could use some sort of poly curve or cubic spline (what ever your spreadsheet or data fitting program is capable of). From this curve, you need to get the interpolated increments down to one second intervals. Once you have interpolated timestamps and the estimated column heights at those moments in time, apply the Mastin formula to determine the DRE rate.

Then you just sum those rates in order to fabricate the total amount erupted to that point in time.

It may sound complicated, but it’s pretty straight forward.

From Mastin et al

H = 2 * V^0.241

Solving for V

V = (H/2)^(1/0.241)

V = Rate in m³/s
H = Height in km.

And.. a very important caveat… the formula has an error envelope of a factor of four. That’s pretty large, but it gets you in the ballpark for eruption estimates.

A sample run:

This is about a fictional volcano.  Since it’s my construction, I choose to name it Mt. Gibbons.  (I’m a Billy Gibbons fan) On 1/15/2012  at 12:00, Mt. Gibbons erupted to an initial altitude of 15 km.  A compilation of VAAC reports and eyewitness reports from the Soso MS Volcano Observatory, show this for Mt Gibbons activity (plume height)

Fictional Mt Gibbons 1

Calculating the number of seconds since the start and re-plotting, we get

Fictional Mt Gibbons 2

Now we apply the Mastin et al derived equation, this gives us the rate of the eruption.

Fictional Mt Gibbons 3

This is where I cheat.  Using the built in integrated function of Dplot, I have it calculate the integral.  You can do something similar with your spreadsheet program if you calcuate the linear trend between each point, then put together a running sum of those calculated points.

Fictional Mt Gibbons 4

So.. as you can see, Mt Gibbons, starting to wane in activity at around the 24th of Febuary, will probably come in as a solid VEI-4. One thing that is very important, is to remember that the reference document, Mastin et al, clearly stated that there is an error factor of about four in the equation. In other words, this will get you into the ballpark, but it’s not full proof.

Enjoy!

GEOLURKING

What’s going on at Katla? Part 2

Part 2, A view of Katla

Fig. 1. Katla from Háfell looking NNW (RUV webcam capture)

So what really is going on at Katla? Well, we’re not really there yet. In this instalment, I will summarise what I have learnt from reading various scientific or otherwise papers and articles and my current understanding of it. At certain points I will supplement this with what I believe to be or could be the explanation, but when I do, I will say so. Again, I emphasise that I am not an expert in any way.

Katla is a relatively young volcano which like so many Icelandic volcanoes formed when Iceland was covered by ice. Hence it is a tuya, steep-sided with a broad, flat top. Like other large Icelandic volcanoes, it has a very large summit crater described as a caldera, but one that did not come about as a result of the collapse of the volcanic edifice into an emptied and very large magma chamber as happened at Mount Mazama a.k.a. Crater Lake in Oregon, at Krakatoa or at Long Valley.

Fig. 2. Herðubreið, a subglacially formed tuya with steep sides and a flat top. Post-glaciation, erosion has
made the sides less steep and a small post-glacial cone makes the top appear less flat than it once was. The
similarity to Katla, once you allow for the vast differences in size, is obvious. (extremeiceland.is)

One of the keys to understand what goes on at Katla is to have an idea of what lies beneath the up to 700 meters thick glacier that covers her crater/caldera. In schematic representations of Katla, a magma chamber at the very shallow depth of three to five kilometres is often displayed. From reading descriptions of other volcanoes that have suffered caldera collapse or looking up a general definition of ”caldera”, it is easy to assume that Katla too must have a magma chamber that spans the entire width of the “caldera” and which, “once-upon-a- time” collapsed to for the present-day caldera. Nothing could be further from the truth, but alas, there is no direct information available that accurately describes what Katla’s magmatic system, the true volcano, looks like. We have to fill this gap ourselves.

The first thing to do is to look at what she has done in the past. If we look up her “Eruptive History” on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program website, we find that Katla is listed as having had 27 eruptions during the period Iceland has been settled by humans, some eleven centuries and counting. Of these, only the larger eruptions seem to have been registered prior to the middle of the 20th Century. Thus the 27 eruptions are divided as follows: Two VEI 0 (1955 and 1999), three VEI 3, fourteen VEI 4 (including the AD 934 “Eldgjá fissure eruption”) and four VEI 5 with a further four not assigned a VEI number. Of the four unassigned eruptions, one is listed as “subglacial, lava flows” and three “subglacial, explosive”. Please take note of the dearth of smaller eruptions, VEI 0 – 2, as this is important and something we’ll return to later.

From this information, it is clear that Katla cannot have a single, caldera-sized magma chamber because such a chamber would contain several tens to even hundreds of cubic kilometers of magma, which in turn would have led to far larger eruptions. None have occurred. Since VEI 5 is assigned to eruptions that eject between 1 and 9 cubic kilometres of Dense Rock Equivalent (DRE) explosively, and Katla’s VEI 5 eruptions are remarkably consistent at between 1.2 and 1.5 cubic kilometres, anything much larger than some 3 – 4 cu km is rather out of the question. A caveat – given the area covered by the crater/caldera, there could be more than one such chamber responsible for her eruptions, in which case it would be fair to ask the question if Katla really is a single volcano or if not a description of her being several volcanoes rolled into one would be more accurate.

If we look at her eruptive history prior to Iceland being settled, deduced by tephrochronology – ash layers deposited being identified by their physical properties, such as chemical composition and grain size, as belonging to Katla and from the size, distribution and time derived for each individual layer of tephra, an eruption responsible for it is inferred – we find that there have been a multitude of eruptions, but only a few of which have been assigned a VEI number. Interestingly in every such case a VEI 3 or 4 has been deduced. Anything much larger must have left such extensive deposits that such a huge eruption cannot have escaped detection, hence we can conclude that no explosive eruptions larger than a small VEI 5 have ever occurred at Katla.

There have been two exceptions to the rule that Katla’s eruptions normally are in the VEI 4 range volume-wise. Both originate on her NE flank, outside the crater/caldera. Around 5550 BC, Katla was the source of the 5 cubic kilometres “Hólmsá Fires eruption” lava flow. In 934 AD, the four times larger “Eldgjá eruption” spewed forth some 18 cu km of lava and five cu km of tephra, or ash. Even if the total volume erupted in 934 AD, about 22 cu km DRE, is on the order of 50 times greater (25 to 200 times), a lowly “VEI 4?” has been assigned.

As the underlying causes and processes that drive “regional fissure eruptions” are vastly different and as they happen very rarely, seemingly with a time interval measured in several millennia in the same-ish location, fissure or rift eruptions should be considered separately – even if the visual appearance of the Katla crater/caldera suggests that a fissure eruption has at some point in the distant past intersected it. They are mentioned here because an article such as this cannot fail to do so, nor can it fail to give a reason why they are not included in the discussion.

Earlier I mentioned the apparent absence of small eruptions from her eruptive record with only two “possible subglacial eruptions” in 1955 and 1999 listed, to which can now be added the equally suspected or “possible” July 2011 subglacial eruption. As I write this, it seems that there may have been yet another, very minor hlaup. That such eruptions were not noted in earlier days is not surprising as the very small hlaups they resulted in were local nuisances rather than regional catastrophes of a major Katla jökulhlaup and would not have been seen as important enough to be recorded, even had they been observed. But how frequent could this type of small eruption be?

Fig 3. Seljansfoss Waterfall during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Binaural Waves Blogspot). Notice
evidence of several minor eruptions on the mountainside above the waterfall.

We know from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption that it was preceded by two fissure eruptions at Fimmvörduhals that intersected each other. If we look at the topography and geography of Eyjafjallajökull, we can see many areas of monogenetic cones. This indicates that eruptions of the Fimmvörduhals type greatly outnumber eruptions at the main vent. At Askja, a similarly sized volcano albeit glacier-free and with a slightly smaller summit crater/ caldera, there have been six small eruptions since the great eruption of 1875 and many prior.

Of the 24 eruptions (not counting the AD 934 Eldgjá fissure eruption) listed before it was realised that there were smaller eruptions that would only show as minor jökulhlaups, 20 are listed as VEI 3 or higher and three of the four not assigned a VEI number are listed as (subglacial and) explosive. At least 17 of the 23 explosive eruptions have been assigned a VEI of 4 or 5. The eruptive record of Katla thus indicates that in order to break through the up to 700 meters thick Mýrdalsjökull glacier, an eruption would need to be at least as powerful as to merit a designation of VEI 3. Thus – the reason for the dearth of smaller eruptions observed is that they are not energetic enough to break through thick glaciers such as Vatnajökull or Mýrdalsjökull to be visually obvious and the minor hlaups resulting have been much too insignificant to have been considered as a result of an eruption that never was seen.

Fig. 4. Pits formed by melting from below in the Katla glacier, summer 2011. The glacier was still covered
with tephra from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption which made such features stand out unusually well.
(ModernSurvivalBlog, picture may originate with Icelandreview)

With the advent of aircraft, it was noted that there were pits in the glacier as if it had melted from below and the collapsed to form an ice crater. These pits are relatively numerous and vary in size. They have been explained as due to either strong hydrothermal activity or, in the case of the larger ones, as the result minor subglacial eruptions.

The obvious conclusion is that in the case of Katla, small eruptions of the Fimmvörduhals type far outnumber the bigger, recorded eruptions. This is vital for understanding how a volcano such as Katla is built and works.

Let us for a moment return to what I like to call “Katla’s defrosted twin”, Askja. Here we can see, side by side, the effects of the two types of eruption. In 1875 she had the big VEI 5 eruption, about four times as great as Katla’s historic VEI 5s, that would eventually form lake Öskjuvátn. Here we have a magma chamber where magma collected over time, partially re-melting and absorbing the chamber walls which together with fractionating led to the body of magma collected being far more silicic than the basalt injected into the chamber, which provided the heat or energy for the process. This went on for centuries, quite likely millennia as GVP lists the preceding very large eruption at Askja as having occurred about 11,000 years ago, until a final basaltic intrusion was energetic enough to unbalance the magma chamber and the big eruption of 1875 followed. Please note that both before and after, there have been many smaller, basaltic eruptions that have evidently bypassed the main magma chamber on their way to the surface, one of which caused the miniscule crater Vítí located immediately north of Lake Öskjuvátn.

Fig. 5. “Katla’s defrosted twin”, Askja. Aerial photograph inside and above the Askja caldera with Lake
Öskjuvatn and the miniscule crater Viti barely discernible on the near left-hand side of the lake. (uwmyvatn
blogspot)

This too is what I believe must have been happening and is going on at Katla. Sturkell and his co-authors in their 2009 paper “Katla And Eyjafjallajökull Volcanoes” note that the products of Katla’s eruptions are bimodal, comprising alkali basalt and mildly alkalic rhyolites “with intermediates very subordinate”. One, or possibly more magma chambers where magma collects, fractionates and grows more silicic, a process that takes hundreds if not thousands of years which is why more than one magma chamber seems to be required in order to account for the relatively frequent eruptions of Katla, until there eventually is an eruption of “mildly alcalic rhyolites”, accompanied by tens to hundreds of smaller, alkali-basaltic eruptions which due to their location under the ice in a watery environment, gouge out small craters and fill in the bigger ones with mostly small, broken fragments of lava, piles of pillow lava or even small lava flows or easily eroded cones. When a big eruption occurs, the glacier first closes the wound, then the crater gets back-filled with loose rubble which gets pasted over with more solid lava flows from later eruptions.

This process has been going on for as long as Katla has existed. Not only has this constant remodelling inside the crater/caldera left a kilometres-deep zone of clastic, i.e. broken or fragmented, rock mixed with water, it also in my opinion explains how the caldera was formed in the first place. This layer extends down to not much above the roof/-s of the magma chamber/-s. As freshly injected basalt from the mantle makes its way up, it will eventually encounter this water-rich zone and result in intense activity, hydrothermal at first, and if the intrusion continues, hydromagmatic. It is primarily this activity we see when we look at the tremor charts of the SIL-stations surrounding Katla, in particular the one located at Austmannsbunga, on the north-eastern crater/caldera wall.

In the next instalment, it is time to take a look at Katla’s neighbours Eyajafjallajökull and the Gódabunga “cryptodome” and try and separate their activity from that of Katla so that we can finally figure out what she may have been up to over the last few years and how likely an eruption in the near future could be.

HENRIK

Why the VEI is Wonked

Eyjafjallajökull 2010-04-18.

The VEI scale might be the most ill-begotten piece of quasi-physics ever devised in the history of mankind. One thing becomes abundantly clear and that is that Chris Newhall and Stephen Self might be good volcanologists, but they are not in any way physicists.

Let us start with a basic problem. Eyjafjallajökull was a VEI-4 calculated on primarily the amount of tephra ejected, and secondarily on the height of the ash-plume. Grimsvötn ejected as much tephra, and had an even higher ash-plume. Both are VEI-4s according to the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI).

The basic requirements for a VEI-4 is that it ejects between 0.1 to 1.0 cubic kilometer of tephra, and has an ash-plume that is anywhere between 10 and 25 km high. Eyjafjallajökull ejected 0.25 cubic kilometers of tephra and had a peak ash-column of 9 kilometers. Grimsvötn is not fully tallied up, but it released the same amount of tephra in its first 24 hours, and had an ash-column that was 20 kilometers high. Eyjafjallajökull took 60 days to erupt the tephra, and only for a couple of days had a 9 km ash-column. But let us say that they both released the same amount of energy during the mentioned time spans, just for arguments sake (at least for now).

What is an explosion? It is the almost instant release of pent up energy. 1 quarter kilo stick of dynamite is the same amount of energy as 2 Mega-joules of energy, or the power equivalent of a 550 watt travelling hairdryer running for 1 hour. Guess which will blow up your car?

And here we hit the head of the VEI-nail with a stupendous physics hammer. If we go back to an explosion being your basic energy release over a specific time, then the time issue gets rather critical quickly. Why is this important? Well, the energy release over the specific time frame decides how destructive an explosion is. Dynamite is destructive, a hair dryer is not destructive (unless your stylist is a moron).

Photograph by Hrafn Óskarsson 2011. Grimsvötn seen in the evening from Reykjavik, height 20 kilometers.

Now some of you will have tallied up things and come up with a huge difference between the eruptions. If you are a normal sane person you have now calculated the difference in destructive force between Eyjafjallajökull and Grimsvötn being 60 times larger. With sane I mean that you did not study physics. To loft up the same amount of tephra in a sixtieth of the time poor Grimsvötn needed to use Eyjafjallajökulls total energy squared. This is actually simplified; Grimsvötn erupted through a 16 times wider muzzle and lofted the load to twice the height.  For those of you who own guns, you know what I am talking about. But in the end the number of 240 times more destructive will suffice. (Dear colleagues, I am simplifying things here.)

To go back to the analogue, Eyjafjallajökull was not a travelling hairdryer compared to Grimsvötn, it was more like a professional hairdryer used for half an hour. It will still though not blow up your car; it will just make your hair look un-natural quicker.

As you by now know, all VEIs are not equal, and sometimes physics is good for tearing down idiotic scales created by people who just want to have a scale named after them. When I have the time I will create a scale that actually measures how destructive an explosive eruption roughly is, but that would still not take into account all sorts of destructive forces involved in an eruption. It would just be a small component of the problem, because in the end the non-explosive Laki eruption killed more people than any other volcano in the history of mankind. VEI, yeah right! I think I will acronym my poor formulation into Destructive Index of Eruptions.

CARL