Some points on El Hierro seismic

One could argue that seismic reflection exploration is the most valuable geophysical survey methods. That because every single barrel of oil coming up is located by reflection surveys. Enormous amount of money have been spent on evolution of the method. Only space race and warfare have been using such money on RD. Earth-science has profited a lot from that.

Here is a good reference on basic reflection principles: http://pioneer.netserv.chula.ac.th/~tthanop/Seismic%20Prospecting%20PDF/Lecture%2  01%20Basic%20Concepts%20of%20Seismic%20reflection%20Survey.pdf

And here on marine seismic: http://www.iagc.org/attachments/contentmanagers/4352/Marine%20Seismic%20Operations%20Overview.pdf

The method is mainly used in sediment geology where the oil is and in those cases the top of Metamorphic or Igneous crust considered as „bottom“ like in this survey west of El Hierro:  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MiamiImageURL&_cid=271781&_user=713833&_pii=S0025322797001308&_check=y&_origin=mlkt&_zone=rslt_list_item&_coverDate=1998-04-30&wchp=dGLbVlS-zSkzk&md5=576f58486ee576c3896f57bda6f80e86/1-s2.0-S0025322797001308-main.pdf  (NB limited access.)

But there have been reflection surveys down to moho, like close to NewZealand: http://earth.usc.edu/~okaya/nz/pdfs/mortimer_sight_nzjgg2002.pdf
Oceanographic vessel (O/V) Sarmiento de Gamboa (SM from now on) is the newest vessel of the UTM, launched 2006.

The Sarmiento de Gamboa

The Marine Technology Unit (UTM) operates within the Mediterranean Centre for Marine and Environmental Research (CMIMA) and belongs to the Department of Natural Resources of the Higher Council for Scientific Research (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, CSIC from now on).

SM is a multipurpose research vessel but with main weight on seismic exploration. The equipment is state of art although it is only fit for 2D seismic.
The equipment used to perform seismic studies is divided into three groups according to the function performed: Energy sources, which provide a pulse of acoustic energy, acquisition equipment, responsible for capturing and recording the reflected signals and processing systems, to analyze and represent the seismic signals: http://www.utm.csic.es/doc/bo_sarmiento_de_gamboa/equipamiento/Configuraci%C3%B3n%20S%C3%ADsmica%20SdG.pdf

Acoustic energy source use compressed air guns, mainly from Bolt: http://www.bolt-technology.com/pdfs/LongLifeGun.pdf They can be connected in arrays giving higher output and some control over pulse shape and bubble pulse. The energy is controlled by change of volume and varying air pressure. The tradeoff here is more power for less resolution. Air gun is often towed some tens of meters behind the ship at a dept. of ca 10 m.

The sensors used for seismic in water are so called hydrophones, which are pressure sensitive crystals (piezo) giving voltage out by pressure change. Each channel has 10-20 sensors 1-2 metersapart, connected in parallel. That gives increased sensitivity but also some directivity, enhancing signals at perpendicular direction but cancelling unwanted signals along the cable. The hydrophone strings are fed into a tube called streamer ~ 50 mmdia. Along with connecting wire and filled, before they used oil, gel but now solid foam. The strings are made up in sections ca 150m long. SM uses Sercel Sentinel ® up to 480 channels, select sections 6 kilometerslength. Solid streamer. In the case of el Hierro I saw somewhere they were using ca 2 kmand then probably 120 channels. The acquisition systems is also Sercel, SEAL 408XL up to 2000 channels: http://www.sercel.com/Products/marine/systems/seal.php

Just to mention, Modern 3D oilfield seismic are done by running 8-12 streamers like those parallell behind the same ship. Even two such ships with shooting vessel in the middel!

Seismic vessel with streamers                                                                      Copyright IAGC                                                                                                                                                 

El Hierro project

It seems from news that SM was alredy underway doing a project on the west Africa continental shelf. There seems to be increased interests in this area, maybe due to oil   smell ??? First step is usually government run 2D seismic, and then results bid out to oil companies which bid for the right to to 3D seismic and then maybe test drilling. A report on some scouting here:                                                                                                         http://sbc-msu.com/assets/images/publications/Hadler_Jacobsen_et_al_2006.pdf

El Hierro got 2 days worth of profiling, most at north but some at the south. Both transverse and radials. One would expect some problems doing such work on a living volcano. One would be the seismic tremor (harmonic or not) but hopfully its freqency is below that of interest and can be filtered away. Other problem might be from basaltic lava streams possible in the sediments around the island but they tend to be rather opac to seismic energy. Anyway the data processing takes months so we‘ll not know for a while.

Course of the Sarmiento de Gamboa  29.11.2011  Course of the Sarmiento de Gamboa  29.11.2011 south and east of El Hierro

Other aspects of marine seismic is use of wide angle reflection and refraction. That takes either a second ship but usually a combination of OBS‘es (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean-bottom_seismometer) and land stations. On El Hierro there are now ca 5 digital seismic stations that have certainly received a lot of data. SM syncronages their airguns to GPS time signal as the seismometers. Given the traverses and radials from SM where each shotpoints location is known to 2 meters and time to the millisecond are KNOWN WE HAVE ALL THE MATERIAL FOR THE BEST TOMOGRAPHY WE WILL EVER GET. We have S-waves as well though they are not generated or carried in water, at hitting the bottom the P-waves generate the S-waves we need. Well they have, not we.

Reference on marine seismic: http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/operations/sfmapping/seismic.htm
http://www.whoi.edu/ships_technology/

Trial by fire for R/V Ramón Margalef

The Role of Ramon Margalef in the monitoring of the El Hierro eruption has been very important.
It is remarkable that the ship is really in it’s virgin trip.
http://www.simrad.com/www/01/NOKBG0237.nsf/AllWeb/4AE3CD4A6D90B76AC12579490025F9C6?OpenDocument
In addition to very important sampling, the bathymetry has been the main course. The tool for that is the newest, most technical of Kongsberg Simrad multibeam sonar, the 710.
http://www.km.kongsberg.com/ks/web/nokbg0240.nsf/AllWeb/993132242751F5EDC1256FA300360548?OpenDocument
Another multibeam sonar on board is the ME 70, a very important tool for fishery control.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multibeam_echosounde

Disclaimer

I am not an expert on the subject, just interested former geotech, dynamite shot master and borehole logger. Please feel free to criticize.

WAGABOND

Advertisements

1,818 thoughts on “Some points on El Hierro seismic

  1. Sooo i have been watching the footage over and over again and took this from PanCam 1 (PC1)

    I am not sure about the -red 1- where its exactly located.
    But this picture is to open up a discussion.

    when watching the PC1 it looks like they went back later on the day, could any one confirm that? because at the start you can see 3 vents (i recall someone asking earlier if the faint spot in the top (first few seconds) was also a stain. it does look like it when watching in negative. it clearly stands out against the reflection of the sun.
    anyway im thinking there either multiple vents on the sea mountain range marked or its a fisure eruption (thats what it looks like to the end of the video at least, that’s why i am thinking they might went back later.)

    • Wow great job. I can’t really add that much on the discussion end. But I am going to go run the videos again. Thanks.

    • Sativacyborg, I agree with your comments above.

      I think that this is indeed a fissure eruption, but fissure eruptions do not have to be the Hawaiian “curtain of fire” style. They can also be a series of aligned vents forming cones, and that is what is typical on El Hierro island where all of the scoria cones abound.

      http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Fissure.html

      The Spanish geologist Barrera in his Dec. 11 post mentioned 3 vents according to the then latest bathymetry. With the possible new stain, and the reduced tremor there might be more now. What fascinated me most in that post however was the average duration of Canary Island eruptions. There have been 12 of them recorded, and only one exceeded 99 days, although it blew that record away! And the La Restinga event right now is at the median point for duration, so perhaps it is winding down.

      I will post the Barrera post translation below, but follow the link to look at the duration chart, I cannot format that for posting here.

      I have also finished translating his latest (and really long!) post, so I will add it to this blog later.

      • i want to revise my “spots”. also want to add this.

        I think on the 18th we saw 2 or 3 cones and 1 small fissure.

        Yellow 1 (pink 1 also?) will become Pink on the Sea floor map
        Brown 1 Yellow on map.
        Red possibly red.

  2. Yay Leigh has full filled my request of footage of Lava entering the sea from Pu’u O’o. Thank you Leigh!

    Recorded on the south shores of the Island of Hawaii Saturday morning, December 17, 2011. Video shot from a boat without any stabilization can tend to roll around a bit … so I kept it short so you won’t get seasick 🙂

    The volume of surface lava being sent from fissures at Pu`u O`o Crater through insulating tube systems seven miles south to the ocean changes daily.

  3. Thank you. That video went nicely with coffee # 1. It was very relaxing to watch!
    Monday
    19.12.2011 02:27:33 63.912 -19.772 9.8 km 0.6 77.08 10.2 km SSW of Hekla.
    This is a bit close for comfort however. The second verified quake in that area in a few days..

  4. eruption webcam is showing a spot currently i saw it pop up on the right side of the screen, now its almost stretched out to the left. looked like it started with some pretty violent webcam shaking. (recording) around 07:40 have to look back later for exact time shaking occurred. *3 minutes in writing now it reached the left side of the screen.*
    in about 20 minutes i can check the seismo. it is not at the 40 minute mark yet.
    camera also just switched to color mode its definitly a stain.

  5. Also it looks like there is a new seperate stain on the right hand side of the large stain and I am sure I have just seen this one bubbling?

    Can anyone else confirm this?

    • do you mean on the eruption cam or village cam?

      Eruption cam has to turn more to the left to see the actual source area. both actually. hope the operator does it soon. someone was there cause the filter switch seemed manual! stain is also shrinking again.

      0710 indeed something small.
      5 minutes left until we can see the update of 0740 time i think something happening there. around that time the spot also appeared

  6. @ Sativacyborg et al. Here is the Dec. 11, 2012 Barrera post, but do check the link for the duration chart of historic Canary Island eruptions.

    by José Luis Barrera Morate, Spanish volcanologist

    “Yesterday, December 10th, the submarine volcano La Restinga marked 60 days of uninterrupted eruption. This puts it eighth in duration for all the Canary Islands recorded eruptions (see table). In the table, multiple fissure eruptions have been treated as a single eruption (for example, the Siete Fuentes-Fasnia-Arafo fissure eruption). At La Restinga, bathymetric data indicate the existence of three vents, some of which are only 150-160 meters deep. Which one is the most active, if several are? This is not well understood. The fact that for 48 hours the tremor has shown more explosive episodes in a nearly periodic manner may indicate hydromagmatic bursts, implying that the active crater is shallower than in the first eruption.”

    Table showing the Relationship of the duration of the historical eruptions in the Canaries, ranked from highest to lowest: see website

    TABLE: Updating La Restinga to December 11, 2011

    The table is self-explanatory. The headings (in Spanish) are:

    Año = year
    Denominación del volcán = name of volcano
    Isla = island
    Duración (en días) = Duration in days

    http://blogs.elcorreogallego.es/elhierro/2011/12/11/60-dias-de-erupcion/

  7. Finally, here is my translation of most recent Barrera post, very long (sorry!), in spite of my best efforts to condense his remarks. Note that this fits in well with a lot of what Lurking has been saying, especially Lurking’s recent comment on “alarmism” (Dec. 18 @ 22:00).

    December 15, 2011 by José Luis Barrera Morate

    “The oceanic volcanism arising near continental margins is affected by the sedimentary deposits of the banks. The Canary Islands are no exception. On the island of Fuerteventura, one of the oldest in the archipelago, oceanic bottom sediments from the Cretaceous period are found rising to the surface today. What is remarkable is that submarine volcanic materials are imbedded in the levels of dark marl and limestone; this is the birth of the island. These materials were deposited from turbid currents that brought limestone and terrigenous materials into the border
    zone (“fan fringe”) of a submarine fan deep within the African continental margin.
    While volcanism was developing in the archipelago there were many events where rising magma interacted with the seafloor’s sedimentary deposits from different periods. The precedents of this interaction are common in several of the Canary Islands. The last occurred in the eruption of Teneguía, La Palma, in 1971. The white, very porous and foamy looking fragments were considered rhyolitic igneous rocks in the first analysis made in 1973. Today, in light of what has happened in the submarine eruption of La Restinga, they are being reinterpreted as recrystallized sediments.

    In La Restinga, the magma passed through the sandstone sediments from some massive debris (that of the Sahara?), recrystallized them, then they lost water and changed into the white foamy textured rock. The first analyses that were made classified the rocks as igneous, indicating that they were rhyolites and that authorities were minimizing the explosive nature of the eruption by saying that the rising magma was basanite, which is less explosive. These hasty exhibitionist-tinged statements violated the basic principle that precaution must prevail in all steps of a crisis, creating social alarm and confusion among the authorities, and contributing nothing to the management of the situation. The geologist José Luis Gonzalez, crisis management expert, reiterates this in his excellent blog about Natural Hazards, on the Association of Geologists page and other publications. http://www.icog.es/_portal/inicio/inicio.asp

    The first scientist to inject sanity into this unsubstantiated alarm was Tenerife geologist Juan Jesus Coello, who denied the primarily igneous character of the rock in his November 9 report, which he illustrated with educational drawings. Recently, new interpretive data from several European universities have confirmed the sedimentary nature of the “restingolitas”, finally settling the controversy. With a bit of research, they would have realized that in the Henry Seamount area, about 35 km SE of El Hierro’s submarine rift, German geologists in 2005 had described the oceanic bottom sediments that come up to El Hierro island. [see diagram of seafloor south of El Hierro in post]. Therefore, it is predictable that the ascending magma in these places mixes with and recrystallizes the sedimentary material, as was seen the first time that pyroclasts emerged in the Las Calmas sea. In no other expulsion involving smoldering floating pyroclastics have the famous “restingolitas” appeared.

    In the future we hope for greater prudence in regard to hurried and unsubstantiated claims that contribute nothing to good crisis management.”

    http://blogs.elcorreogallego.es/elhierro/2011/12/15/las-islas-canarias-%E2%80%9Cflotan%E2%80%9D-sobre-rocas-sedimentarias-diversas/

    • Regardless of the outcome, it was just a scientific pissing contest. “Crisis management.” 2,500 tents…no, I’m sure that’s not fair…but, they did get lucky.

      • It might be a pissing contest for you but he is really talking about responsible crises control.
        As I saw it there were lots of unfunded cries about explosive rhyolitic dangers and need to evacuate.
        I am sure that did not help the people of El Hierro a bit, quite the opposite.

        • They did not move fast to do anything. It is typical of people to just hope that something goes away. This is demonstrated the world over. I felt it was unfounded to assume that the eruption would stay offshore. Wishful thinking is not responsible crisis management. At least that professor had the guts to speak out. And the only thing that has made them correct is that they got lucky. The difference between a hugely explosive eruption and a little explosive eruption is probably moot when the source is 2-5 km off the shore where your house is located.

    • Hmmm! I am sorry ,maybe I have missed something in translation but I see no reason for that last sentence. What were the hurried unsubstantiated claims? I seem to remember people discussing and making suggestions about the *restingolitas” butno scaremongering as far as I remember!

      • I think the unsubstiated claims were the results of the first quick analyses saying that the white stuff in restingolitas was rhyolitic, which would mean a more explosive volcanism than usual in Canary islands. And wasn’t then there some discussion between various authorities and some geologist from Barcelona who claimed this wasn’t so? I vaguely remember some arguments along these lines.

      • Don’t know; if there were unsubstantiated claims, I missed them. I got the impression that scientists were commenting on the rocks they, themselves, had tested. Some found evidence of rhyolites and others did not. To deny the presence of rhyolite seems odd, given that there is some in the volcanic debris from previous eruptions.

        I have not seen a report that states what was found where, when, how much and how in the eruption.

        As for good crisis management, we do not have enough data.

  8. And now I wish all of you a good day, as unfortunately I am in North America, and it is well past my bedtime. I’ll check back later, so keep an eye on those webcams and if anything interesting happens please take screen shots! 🙂

  9. @Geolurking
    Sorry for not expressing myself clearly. I asked you if CORC has anything to do with ORCHILLA, as I understood that the location of the station CORC was not known for sure.
    So I thought it was maybe the station named ORCHILLA on this map:

    It is not far from where you calculated it to be.

    • I can’t make that call. All I can tell you is where the reverse plotting lands at.

      Based on that, the position is within about 250 meters on the north-south and east-west axis. Draw a circle with that radius about that point, and there is a 68% probability that the actual station will be inside that circle. Make it a 500 meter radius, and it’s a 95% probability.

    • Essentially, this is a targeting box. If you were going to kill a ship somewhere in the open ocean, you would put your missile in a position to fly through that box to look for the target.

      You know the target is in the box, you just don’t know exactly where in the box it is.

      • BTW… Missiles are actually the first autonomous artificial intelligences that clearly violate Asimov’s First Law of Robotics.

        You give them a task, then you send them off on that task. They find the target, and kill it. Some of the more modern ones are quite adept at decision making. They execute search patterns with the radar, use logic and adjustments to overcome countermeasures, and they use pretty advanced spatial logic to get to the target.

        In my opinion, they are the first “robots” as we have popularized in our concept of what a robot is.

        • Yeah that ‘s typical…The first halfway autonomous decision making machine we have created, and Asimov’s First Law (thou shall not harm a human being or by inaction allow a human being to come to harm) is out the window already. 😦

        • @schteve

          I wouldn’t sweat it too much.

          SLAMX – (no longer experimental) Essentially a piloted Harpoon cruise missile with control done from the launching air craft. Not autonomous, that part was partially defeated due to the necessity to use an IR seeker image relayed back to the launch platform.

          It can trace it’s lineage back to the Fritz X. A piloted glide bomb that first saw action in warfare 21 July 1943.

          Psychologist B.F. Skinner (yes, that B.F. Skinner) did developmental work to incorporate trained pigeons into a bomb guidance system for the US.

          It’s just a matter of what you put in control of the killing machine.

        • Of course a human being is still needed to send one of these into action i.e give it a target, theyr’e not yet picking thier own targets, but still, are we evolved monkeys too clever for our own good..?

        • Well, that’s just those two examples and how they tie in to the past.

          The Anti Sea version of the onesystem that I know of (never fielded as far as I know) was to be able to fly out to an area and to kill the first thing that met certain targeting requirements. If you were in “the box” and didn’t perform a specific action, it wouldn’t even consider you. Perform that action and it would come after you.

          The V-1 “buzz bombs” of WW II were essentially ancestral cruise missiles that would fly out until they ran out of fuel. How much fuel you put in it determined where it would come down. Not a sophisticated system of programing but effective in un-nerving London.

          More advanced ancestral cruise missiles were the Kamikaze of WWII, they were much more reliable than pigeons.

          Now.. take a look at all the things a real cruise missile has to deal with.

          1) it has to maintain a specific altitude in order to stay below the radar horizon.
          2) It has to stay above the water and whatever seas that it is flying over. (even compensating for wave height in some cases)
          3) It has to fly to an assigned area and start looking for a target
          4) Upon finding a target (and/or rejecting false targets or decoys) it has to maneuver to intercept the target.
          5) For final run-in, it may have to take evasive action to get past the anti missile hard defenses… Rolling Airframe Missile, Vulcan Phalanx (looks like R2D2 with an erection), Goalkeeper (for you NATO guys), the Spanish Meroka system, the Russian Kashtan system… even Advanced Sea Sparrow. I won’t go into all the details…. but it’s a give and take area of warfare where advances in one system are countered by advances in another.

          And in all of these systems… automation and AI figure heavily.

          I know of at least one Helo pilot who grows very nervous making an approach to land on a Vulcan Phalanx equipped ship. Though the system was in “safe” mode and un-armed, he described how the weapon mount stared at him on final approach and just sat there and shuddered as it tried to track the tips of his rotor blades. (They met the target specifications)

          We may still have “man in the loop”… but it’s not too far of a shift to eliminate that.

        • Thanks Lurking, very interesting.
          Not quite thinking machines in the sense of AI but certainly machines making decisions. Taking out an artillary shell with a big bullet is quite a feat…
          These systems still require an operator (and more importantly an programmer) but you’re right, we’re getting closer to Asimov’s vision of the Robot.

  10. Please can I ask this question if the new vents are opening because of pressure and releasing what will happen when the pressure cannot be released through vents.

    Is this when the eartquakes will restart and it will become a danger they may be the an erruption on land.

    • If the existing vents close for some reason, or don’t release enough pressure, then the system will look for other ways to release its pressure. How? By building new pathways end new vents / fissures to let the material out.There might be some eq’s as magma seeks his way through the rock, but maybe old pathways can serve again and so there doesn’t absolutely have to be dramatic earthquaking before some new “release-features” open up, on land or under the sea.

  11. Check this, from over at Jon’s blog (comment by Irspit). Compare long-term inflation of Hamarinn:

    with yearly inflation at Katla:

    Katla had about 8 cm in 6 months. Hamarinn had about 44cm over 14 years, so about 3.2 cm per year. While Katla’s inflation is therefore much faster, Hamarinn’s is steady over this whole period and large (44cm up is in my opinion a lot).

    So, I guess yet another volcano to keep a closer eye upon (and yes we’ve been doing this already, but this comparison of uplift just points it out a bit more).

  12. GeoLoco

    We know thatt El Hierro is called swiss cheese so magma can be building and filling up right under the island itself especially the old chambers leading to Tansganagosa.

    So while the magma is still moving surely there is danger to the islanders who really IMO are just sitting on a time bomb not knowing if or when its going to go off .

    • As many said months ago, you’re right and there could be a more important, or explosive, eruption onland. It’s still wait and see. And this potential remains until it happened or until the beast falls asleep again.
      Anyone who lives on top of a volcano or volcanic system lives on a time bomb. Absolutely. And Istanbul is a time bomb, and San Francisco is a time bomb, and Hengill is a time bomb, and Vesuvius is a time bomb, and the western civilisation is a time bomb, and China is a time bomb, and mankind is a time bomb, and the sun will blow in some million years…
      You’re right, in short terms.

      • Would it not be clever then to look back wile we wait and try to learn from history what we could expect ?
        Looking over the cinder cones from the last 5-6000 years I can see no marks of explosive eruption.
        Looks more like Fimmvorduhals size craters.
        Even on top the “feared” Tanganasoga Volcano the most recent 3-4 craters (5-6000 years I understand) are similar to the new Fimmvorduhals craters.(I have been both places.)
        So I can not understand this talk of “time bombs” and big danger when all we could expect are nice tourist eruptions if the anything at all.
        There has been much criticism on all kind of astro-fearmongers but I really can’t see much difference.
        What I am trying to get to is, that it must be unpleasant and annoying for the locals to read such negative outlook and exaggeration .
        Some of theme might even think that we are some specialists here.
        I am not trying to bash anyone , Just try to think of the people affected, Please!

      • I have to make a note here.

        While the island is swiss cheese, and magma or venting could literally show up anywhere, El Hierro is NOT a hard cap volcano on top of miles of continental crust.

        Puyehue Cordon-Caulle was/is one of those. That eruption is typical of a re-awakening continental volcano that has had thousands of years to build pressures and stress.

        Being on top of thin oceanic crust, and layered with Jurassic era sediment and mostly basaltic flow and trepha, you can’t really get the massive pressures of a Cordon-Caulle type of volcano… or a Helens, or Pinatubo.

        The most energetic forces are likely to come from interactions with water, which is why every one was waiting for a Surtseyan type of volcano. By my calculations, (amateur) we are not going to see that this time around, unless something closer to shore opens up.

        Can the island rift like Heimaey? Yes. Is it likely based on what we see? Probably not. The deformation field shows nothing that even hints at that. But even is it did, it’s not going to be an stupendously energetic as Cordon-Caulle.

        In my opinion, Wagabond is dead on accurate with his assessment.

        • It only became exaggeration when it didn’t happen. No one said the island would disappear. But one good whiff of a volcanic gas can ruin your whole day.

          That’s right, no pros here. It has been said over and over. What’s the point of this blog if you cannot discuss all aspects of an eruption? This blog isn’t held out to be scientific evidence. There’s no posturing here. We’re not writing papers.

          I asked early on what was considered fearmongering. Well? No one answered. How can you well discuss the evolution of an offshore volcano or the birth of a new island without having some aspects become unpleasant or give rise to some imagination of the outcome if this happens, or that happens, or…?

          I think it is unfair to say that there is no difference between “astro-fearmongers” and this blog. I think people have bent over backwards to avoid that. I want to thank everyone who posted here these last weeks for a superb job in picking over the nuances of the volcano without such extremism.

          I have done a lot of reading of papers available on the web, and the one thing I learned for sure is that nature will do the unexpected. NO ONE knows for sure exactly what will happen. Is that fearmongering?

        • I always assumed the main things to fear on this eruption was either gas or if the quakes continued at the level they had been then a possible major problem from rockfalls. I am not sure anyone expected catastrophic vulcanism on land on El Hierro, if they did I missed it. I was just hoping for a nice surtseyan eruption with a small and probably temporary island but unless this goes on for a remarkably long time or the eruption strengthens that is looking very unlikely now. A shame really as it would be a major tourist draw I would have thought.

  13. The first fearmongers are the spanish scientists (I am spanish this is not a racist atack).

    Where are the last bathymetries?

    Spanish scientists might cut all the fearmongers publishing bathymetries…
    They didn´t it.

    • It has been said that the greatest fear, is the fear of the unknown.

      With the unknown, the mind is free to conjure up scenarios that fit and extrapolate upon what little data that is available.

      And.. in keeping with some philosophers, (paraphrased) “Always expect the worst, that way if it doesn’t happen you rewarded with a series of happy occurrences”

      Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.
      Benjamin Franklin

      Always expect the worst, and you will never be disappointed.
      Peter Wastholm

      Don’t expect the good life, don’t expect anything, then if you get something, it’s a bonus.
      Frank Zappa

  14. Interview with Carmen López (IGN) Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the status of eruptive seismic process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The volcano continues to emit, but the eruptive process began in July, the eruption began on October 10 and since then has not stopped as shown in the tremor signal. There is a constant vibration produced by the magma as it leaves the crack and this has not stopped in recent months, but there is a much reduced activity that accompanies an eruption, which is the seismicity and deformations. Right now there is very little seismicity. The seismicity was the parameter most notorious and what we found earlier, on July 19 began to see that there was an anomalous seismicity in the north of the island of El Hierro, and this number increased seismicity and also migrated, was from the area north of the Gulf, across the entire island from north to south, migrating through which he would open, allowing the magma moved forward and finished in the sea calms and on October 10 began to surface, but at the surface of the ocean floor, not on land, water was over, but the rash is exactly like it was on the ground. Digital Journal Canary Matters: now CO2 emissions both in La Restinga as in La Frontera, what level are you? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The parameters that are most anomalous seismicity, which has fallen and the deformation that might collect 5 cm of deformation, the bulge that this intrusion beneath the island created. And the gases have been less spectacular, has been an increase especially CO2, but it is quite natural because there are less intrusive and at the end of small cracks makes it to the surface, but levels are not too large, and in the last steps to be non-tip which is the body which is now doing more campaigns, they even say they are stabilizing and referring. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the next phase? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Wait, this is a flare-up, has no seismicity, but it has deformations, surface when you look out to sea once there is a brown head and a very large green spot is because it is emitting, and part of the materials reach the surface. The brown part is thin material, which are ash, and continues to spew, and certainly continues to spew lava fragments, such as those seen in the cultural center of La Restinga, only to fail to emerge. You are creating the building and have to wait for that magma is exhausted, that this reservoir, which is very large, since it takes more than 60 days feeding an eruption will come a time that fails to have enough pressure to keep it and finish. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much longer could be erupting eruption in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not really know for now what we’re observing and analysis that we are seeing is that the magma evolves, it will crystallize, and if he is to be crystallized by cooling, and seems to be There blend with new magma, which is not fed back bone, and that shortens the phase of eruption, but we can not rule that any time there is a new feedback and if not there must be quite late in the process. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What level is the volcanic cone now? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We know of bathymetry made by research vessels, and the last has a bathymetry is the “Sarmiento de Gamboa”, and the shallower water is 150 meters above. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Is it possible that the final surface to surface the volcano? Carmen Lopez (IGN): For now it is very difficult because it has a lot of water and it still is seen to be a fissure eruption, that is, not only out of that cone but comes in other areas of the fissure. Moreover, it has crumbling, there flank collapses and is a very unstable material, then it is not easy to go to surface, but also depends on how much time is being broadcast. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you completely rule out an eruption in the north? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not discard anything, this is a seismic event that is partly predictable behavior, but in the short term, then all we can say is that now with the parameters to activity, has no that is, but we can not say that in future, if these patterns change was more likely. Canary Import Digital Journal: appropriate measures were taken to Los Roquille and evacuations? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We never question such as IGN emergency measures, our role and our obligation is to have a network of surveillance and alert and advise the leadership of PEVOLCA Plan, but we do not question the emergency measures for the population . Digital Journal Canary Matters: What do you think the president does not attend council meetings PEVOLCA? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I’m saying is exactly what we’re here as an institute responsible for the volcanic surveillance and warning can not be responsible, rather than this, and not think about other issues. Canary Import Digital Journal: Was there fear with earthquakes greater than 4 degrees, a rash on earth? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Yes. It was really a bit of a shame, and sometimes it is inevitable but at the time an official of the centers that are responsible, there is information created in a very random people not only irresponsible, but he has no knowledge . Digital Journal Canary Matters: Like what? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I say I can not for example, but the idea was to see a rash on earth is supported options sometimes people who were not professional, and that is dangerous. It is especially dangerous because sometimes a negative image is created rather than a positive one, and these things must be very careful because the wind to launch an idea makes you responsible for it, and there are people who have been very scared and has unnecessarily through a lot I think. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you ever known the truth of what happened in El Hierro? Carmen Lopez (IGN): No, of course by IGN have a website where all the data, and that has not ever done. In real time you can see the real-time seismic signals and deformations, have all the seismic catalog of 12000 earthquakes. It really is all the information there. Of course besides that is information that is a replica, there is much work already has a scientific level that is not to put on a website, but really the information displayed is as evident in the evolution of the eruptive process , here it has happened to people after 4 months to meet and talk to us can interpret the tremor, learn, tell us why this has less magnitude earthquake has been felt? I mean, really, and there is knowledge and what we say at times, has had a positive part science, but has had a training which I think is very good that the islanders and in general the Canary Islands and Spain, have learned many concepts and to see an eruptive process from the beginning in July until you know you know it’s a rash, you see the products of the eruption, which I think is not forgotten, and in reverse, which serves as education. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you think that after the eruption will continue to serve and report on the volcanic phenomena? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I hope so, because there is no doubt that there are sites that are part of culture. In Madrid, is part of the culture of a child to learn these things, but here is part of everyday life, then I think that in the Canaries have to join the process of education from toddlers all the knowledge needed to live with volcanoes assets, to live with earthquakes, live with a process that can be repeated and may not be at sea. The next may be on land, not known, then we believe that we must not lose this opportunity and have to keep reminding the kids, they now know what the magma, which is the lava, which is a pyroclastic , which is the tremor, and do not forget. That makes the time you know live with risk, which is a very important thing for people Canaria. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How long does it take to recover the Sea of ​​Calm? Carmen Lopez (IGN): That’s what biologists know more, we are experts in surveillance, we are not experts in biology, but they are saying it will be faster than expected, there really is a huge amount of nutrients in water, in fact here the neighbors have told us that now there are algae that were not years green algae on the rocks, and is having nutrients and have left many shells, and probably end in an explosion of life at the time as possible, in which a little clean water. What I have listened to the experts is that within a period of 6 months / 1 year, no one knows of course, since then the recovery will be total, even going to reach cleanup levels greater than before. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Why did it take so long to get the Spanish Oceanographic Institute ships? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Because the eruption could have been on the ground and was no good you have a boat you pay a lot day to have it seasonal here, is the same, because it has come at sea, for if it had come ashore would have needed some planes to make a photogrammetric survey of the progress of the lava, I mean you can not have ships and planes waiting to know where you are going out, and really until the last minute really did not know where. I was actually 1.5 km from earth, but really did not know if he would be grounded if it would be at sea, if I was going to start offshore and would continue to ground. So I think that is natural, you can not have 4 months a research vessel waiting to see if it is useful or a plane. And I think it really starts when the rash is when you put all the means for the study. In that sense I think that the criticisms that have been made to the performance of the vessels has been based on ignorance of what it means to have these resources. Digital Journal Canary Matters: It is assumed that studies are conducted with the same equipment … why there are different interpretations of the results (IGN, CSIC, Carracedo …)? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The interpretation of the data makes it who have the data, and data are held by the IGN, ie belongs Carracedo and has participated in the scientific committee and I think that has no other interpretation of that There, I think not. In science the gap is very important, this is not an exact science and 100% predictable, then even good, I think it’s a good job to question things. It makes the best scientific method is to see the data and begin to speak, and there are times when great things contrary expert opinion and that makes you the summary of that process of questioning what the data means that the answer does better, is more reliable. So I think it is a difficult process, realize that when the eruption comes out you know everything, you know it’s a volcano, but what began as an intrusion to 15 km depth that is migrating underneath all the building’s volcanic Hierro. Who knows if it will come out? We are 15 km, that in our heads is a number, but in reality 15 km of a rigid material is much, who knows if it will reach the top. And I really could not have come. We did not know we were talking about magma, which has pressure, which is broken at that depth that allows them to ascend, it really is normal to question and I think that’s not bad, and does not mean they know less, not you mean that scientists found, means that the scientific method is based on questioning the observable data that is incomplete, it is measured from the surface something that happens in the inner bark, has a normal partial data and question the interpretations. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you invited foreign scientists to this monitoring process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): As this is a committee of experts and there is much renowned Spanish experts and experienced both in the Canaries, as in Spain, which are those involved, but there has also been consulting with people with whom scientists are working on for years, and whether it has consulted with them, have seen the data, and have argued, bone has sought counseling. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the vision of scientists from other sites regarding this process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): First of each volcano is different, meaning that you speak with a Mexican expert and he is accustomed to its volcanoes, that maybe are more frequent eruptions in them, who already know, this case was not as easy as 300 years ago there was virtually no eruptive activity in El Hierro. In fact there was no instrumental record of how one thing starts here. Then he also had a chance of large underwater volcano off, since there are many volcanoes, there is very little territory outside the water, then I think they have followed with great interest and has had difficulty tracking. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Can any science influence eruptive process? I’m thinking about the weather, for example. Carmen Lopez (IGN): The most influential are the tides, that people have mentioned, and of course will have a tidal component, because it is a fluid, just as there is an ocean tide, earth tide there. Even on land that is rigid has a tidal effect, and bulges and back again subject to the gravity of the moon, sun and even other planets and of course the magma is a fluid will be subject to a tidal effect of any other material of the earth has a tidal effect, but in this case was the effect certainly ruled over the rash. When there were more earthquakes there was some correlation between the seismicity with the tides, but one thing is that this phenomenon exists and another is to explain everything about it. We are here 24 hours and while there is light we observe the phenomenon on the surface and there was no more or less, in fact today (yesterday) brown spot appears larger than when the moon was full, what happens is that sometimes it is very nice to think that the moon alone can command a rash and not true. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What has and that this phenomenon can contribute to science? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Very much so, first the experience of this phenomenon makes us who are the responsible institution in Spain volcanic surveillance and warning have more knowledge. This is like if you have a surgery, you are a doctor and have never had a patient, know a lot of books and are even able to do an operation but have never done it and here has been a patient, we had a rash. Since 1971 there has been no eruption in the Canary Islands and throughout the Spanish territory. First experience, and that makes you re-evaluated and have seen that you were wrong in the instrumentation, what would you do with this experience if you were to ride again, with all this knowledge into the next eruption will we know much more, the monitoring network that always works with or without rash, always operating networks, and daily work. We are about 35 people, working with a rash or no rash, we will make things much more informed. And more often than if we would know far more eruptions. So to us has been scientifically very well and will get better or just the management aspect of the next eruption, volcanological knowledge but itself. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much time passed Jan l IGN data center in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): 24 hours. There are three shifts of people rotating every 8 hours, at night there are people, for the day. Digital Journal Canary Matter: But have life? Carmen Lopez (IGN): If we have because we rotate that’s the good part, we are a very large group, then we rotate. So we’re here a week, then we fly to and come to cas others and virtually the entire team has already happened in these 4 months here on El Hierro, and IGN is strong that not only has instrumentation, but has staff., and endure the months that may be required here. Javier Gil Perez Digital Journal Canary Matter Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the status of eruptive seismic process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The volcano continues to emit, but the eruptive process began in July, the eruption began on October 10 and since then has not stopped as shown in the tremor signal. There is a constant vibration produced by the magma as it leaves the crack and this has not stopped in recent months, but there is a much reduced activity that accompanies an eruption, which is the seismicity and deformations. Right now there is very little seismicity. The seismicity was the parameter most notorious and what we found earlier, on July 19 began to see that there was an anomalous seismicity in the north of the island of El Hierro, and this number increased seismicity and also migrated, was from the area north of the Gulf, across the entire island from north to south, migrating through which he would open, allowing the magma moved forward and finished in the sea calms and on October 10 began to surface, but at the surface of the ocean floor, not on land, water was over, but the rash is exactly like it was on the ground. Digital Journal Canary Matters: now CO2 emissions both in La Restinga as in La Frontera, what level are you? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The parameters that are most anomalous seismicity, which has fallen and the deformation that might collect 5 cm of deformation, the bulge that this intrusion beneath the island created. And the gases have been less spectacular, has been an increase especially CO2, but it is quite natural because there are less intrusive and at the end of small cracks makes it to the surface, but levels are not too large, and in the last steps to be non-tip which is the body which is now doing more campaigns, they even say they are stabilizing and referring. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the next phase? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Wait, this is a flare-up, has no seismicity, but it has deformations, surface when you look out to sea once there is a brown head and a very large green spot is because it is emitting, and part of the materials reach the surface. The brown part is thin material, which are ash, and continues to spew, and certainly continues to spew lava fragments, such as those seen in the cultural center of La Restinga, only to fail to emerge. You are creating the building and have to wait for that magma is exhausted, that this reservoir, which is very large, since it takes more than 60 days feeding an eruption will come a time that fails to have enough pressure to keep it and finish. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much longer could be erupting eruption in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not really know for now what we’re observing and analysis that we are seeing is that the magma evolves, it will crystallize, and if he is to be crystallized by cooling, and seems to be There blend with new magma, which is not fed back bone, and that shortens the phase of eruption, but we can not rule that any time there is a new feedback and if not there must be quite late in the process. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What level is the volcanic cone now? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We know of bathymetry made by research vessels, and the last has a bathymetry is the “Sarmiento de Gamboa”, and the shallower water is 150 meters above. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Is it possible that the final surface to surface the volcano? Carmen Lopez (IGN): For now it is very difficult because it has a lot of water and it still is seen to be a fissure eruption, that is, not only out of that cone but comes in other areas of the fissure. Moreover, it has crumbling, there flank collapses and is a very unstable material, then it is not easy to go to surface, but also depends on how much time is being broadcast. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you completely rule out an eruption in the north? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not discard anything, this is a seismic event that is partly predictable behavior, but in the short term, then all we can say is that now with the parameters to activity, has no that is, but we can not say that in future, if these patterns change was more likely. Canary Import Digital Journal: appropriate measures were taken to Los Roquille and evacuations? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We never question such as IGN emergency measures, our role and our obligation is to have a network of surveillance and alert and advise the leadership of PEVOLCA Plan, but we do not question the emergency measures for the population . Digital Journal Canary Matters: What do you think the president does not attend council meetings PEVOLCA? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I’m saying is exactly what we’re here as an institute responsible for the volcanic surveillance and warning can not be responsible, rather than this, and not think about other issues. Canary Import Digital Journal: Was there fear with earthquakes greater than 4 degrees, a rash on earth? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Yes. It was really a bit of a shame, and sometimes it is inevitable but at the time an official of the centers that are responsible, there is information created in a very random people not only irresponsible, but he has no knowledge . Digital Journal Canary Matters: Like what? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I say I can not for example, but the idea was to see a rash on earth is supported options sometimes people who were not professional, and that is dangerous. It is especially dangerous because sometimes a negative image is created rather than a positive one, and these things must be very careful because the wind to launch an idea makes you responsible for it, and there are people who have been very scared and has unnecessarily through a lot I think. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you ever known the truth of what happened in El Hierro? Carmen Lopez (IGN): No, of course by IGN have a website where all the data, and that has not ever done. In real time you can see the real-time seismic signals and deformations, have all the seismic catalog of 12000 earthquakes. It really is all the information there. Of course besides that is information that is a replica, there is much work already has a scientific level that is not to put on a website, but really the information displayed is as evident in the evolution of the eruptive process , here it has happened to people after 4 months to meet and talk to us can interpret the tremor, learn, tell us why this has less magnitude earthquake has been felt? I mean, really, and there is knowledge and what we say at times, has had a positive part science, but has had a training which I think is very good that the islanders and in general the Canary Islands and Spain, have learned many concepts and to see an eruptive process from the beginning in July until you know you know it’s a rash, you see the products of the eruption, which I think is not forgotten, and in reverse, which serves as education. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you think that after the eruption will continue to serve and report on the volcanic phenomena? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I hope so, because there is no doubt that there are sites that are part of culture. In Madrid, is part of the culture of a child to learn these things, but here is part of everyday life, then I think that in the Canaries have to join the process of education from toddlers all the knowledge needed to live with volcanoes assets, to live with earthquakes, live with a process that can be repeated and may not be at sea. The next may be on land, not known, then we believe that we must not lose this opportunity and have to keep reminding the kids, they now know what the magma, which is the lava, which is a pyroclastic , which is the tremor, and do not forget. That makes the time you know live with risk, which is a very important thing for people Canaria. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How long does it take to recover the Sea of ​​Calm? Carmen Lopez (IGN): That’s what biologists know more, we are experts in surveillance, we are not experts in biology, but they are saying it will be faster than expected, there really is a huge amount of nutrients in water, in fact here the neighbors have told us that now there are algae that were not years green algae on the rocks, and is having nutrients and have left many shells, and probably end in an explosion of life at the time as possible, in which a little clean water. What I have listened to the experts is that within a period of 6 months / 1 year, no one knows of course, since then the recovery will be total, even going to reach cleanup levels greater than before. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Why did it take so long to get the Spanish Oceanographic Institute ships? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Because the eruption could have been on the ground and was no good you have a boat you pay a lot day to have it seasonal here, is the same, because it has come at sea, for if it had come ashore would have needed some planes to make a photogrammetric survey of the progress of the lava, I mean you can not have ships and planes waiting to know where you are going out, and really until the last minute really did not know where. I was actually 1.5 km from earth, but really did not know if he would be grounded if it would be at sea, if I was going to start offshore and would continue to ground. So I think that is natural, you can not have 4 months a research vessel waiting to see if it is useful or a plane. And I think it really starts when the rash is when you put all the means for the study. In that sense I think that the criticisms that have been made to the performance of the vessels has been based on ignorance of what it means to have these resources. Digital Journal Canary Matters: It is assumed that studies are conducted with the same equipment … why there are different interpretations of the results (IGN, CSIC, Carracedo …)? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The interpretation of the data makes it who have the data, and data are held by the IGN, ie belongs Carracedo and has participated in the scientific committee and I think that has no other interpretation of that There, I think not. In science the gap is very important, this is not an exact science and 100% predictable, then even good, I think it’s a good job to question things. It makes the best scientific method is to see the data and begin to speak, and there are times when great things contrary expert opinion and that makes you the summary of that process of questioning what the data means that the answer does better, is more reliable. So I think it is a difficult process, realize that when the eruption comes out you know everything, you know it’s a volcano, but what began as an intrusion to 15 km depth that is migrating underneath all the building’s volcanic Hierro. Who knows if it will come out? We are 15 km, that in our heads is a number, but in reality 15 km of a rigid material is much, who knows if it will reach the top. And I really could not have come. We did not know we were talking about magma, which has pressure, which is broken at that depth that allows them to ascend, it really is normal to question and I think that’s not bad, and does not mean they know less, not you mean that scientists found, means that the scientific method is based on questioning the observable data that is incomplete, it is measured from the surface something that happens in the inner bark, has a normal partial data and question the interpretations. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you invited foreign scientists to this monitoring process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): As this is a committee of experts and there is much renowned Spanish experts and experienced both in the Canaries, as in Spain, which are those involved, but there has also been consulting with people with whom scientists are working on for years, and whether it has consulted with them, have seen the data, and have argued, bone has sought counseling. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the vision of scientists from other sites regarding this process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): First of each volcano is different, meaning that you speak with a Mexican expert and he is accustomed to its volcanoes, that maybe are more frequent eruptions in them, who already know, this case was not as easy as 300 years ago there was virtually no eruptive activity in El Hierro. In fact there was no instrumental record of how one thing starts here. Then he also had a chance of large underwater volcano off, since there are many volcanoes, there is very little territory outside the water, then I think they have followed with great interest and has had difficulty tracking. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Can any science influence eruptive process? I’m thinking about the weather, for example. Carmen Lopez (IGN): The most influential are the tides, that people have mentioned, and of course will have a tidal component, because it is a fluid, just as there is an ocean tide, earth tide there. Even on land that is rigid has a tidal effect, and bulges and back again subject to the gravity of the moon, sun and even other planets and of course the magma is a fluid will be subject to a tidal effect of any other material of the earth has a tidal effect, but in this case was the effect certainly ruled over the rash. When there were more earthquakes there was some correlation between the seismicity with the tides, but one thing is that this phenomenon exists and another is to explain everything about it. We are here 24 hours and while there is light we observe the phenomenon on the surface and there was no more or less, in fact today (yesterday) brown spot appears larger than when the moon was full, what happens is that sometimes it is very nice to think that the moon alone can command a rash and not true. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What has and that this phenomenon can contribute to science? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Very much so, first the experience of this phenomenon makes us who are the responsible institution in Spain volcanic surveillance and warning have more knowledge. This is like if you have a surgery, you are a doctor and have never had a patient, know a lot of books and are even able to do an operation but have never done it and here has been a patient, we had a rash. Since 1971 there has been no eruption in the Canary Islands and throughout the Spanish territory. First experience, and that makes you re-evaluated and have seen that you were wrong in the instrumentation, what would you do with this experience if you were to ride again, with all this knowledge into the next eruption will we know much more, the monitoring network that always works with or without rash, always operating networks, and daily work. We are about 35 people, working with a rash or no rash, we will make things much more informed. And more often than if we would know far more eruptions. So to us has been scientifically very well and will get better or just the management aspect of the next eruption, volcanological knowledge but itself. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much time passed Jan l IGN data center in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): 24 hours. There are three shifts of people rotating every 8 hours, at night there are people, for the day. Digital Journal Canary Matter: But have life? Carmen Lopez (IGN): If we have because we rotate that’s the good part, we are a very large group, then we rotate. So we’re here a week, then we fly to and come to cas others and virtually the entire team has already happened in these 4 months here on El Hierro, and IGN is strong that not only has instrumentation, but has staff., and endure the months that may be required here. Javier Gil Perez Digital Journal Canary Matter Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the status of eruptive seismic process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The volcano continues to emit, but the eruptive process began in July, the eruption began on October 10 and since then has not stopped as shown in the tremor signal. There is a constant vibration produced by the magma as it leaves the crack and this has not stopped in recent months, but there is a much reduced activity that accompanies an eruption, which is the seismicity and deformations. Right now there is very little seismicity. The seismicity was the parameter most notorious and what we found earlier, on July 19 began to see that there was an anomalous seismicity in the north of the island of El Hierro, and this number increased seismicity and also migrated, was from the area north of the Gulf, across the entire island from north to south, migrating through which he would open, allowing the magma moved forward and finished in the sea calms and on October 10 began to surface, but at the surface of the ocean floor, not on land, water was over, but the rash is exactly like it was on the ground. Digital Journal Canary Matters: now CO2 emissions both in La Restinga as in La Frontera, what level are you? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The parameters that are most anomalous seismicity, which has fallen and the deformation that might collect 5 cm of deformation, the bulge that this intrusion beneath the island created. And the gases have been less spectacular, has been an increase especially CO2, but it is quite natural because there are less intrusive and at the end of small cracks makes it to the surface, but levels are not too large, and in the last steps to be non-tip which is the body which is now doing more campaigns, they even say they are stabilizing and referring. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the next phase? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Wait, this is a flare-up, has no seismicity, but it has deformations, surface when you look out to sea once there is a brown head and a very large green spot is because it is emitting, and part of the materials reach the surface. The brown part is thin material, which are ash, and continues to spew, and certainly continues to spew lava fragments, such as those seen in the cultural center of La Restinga, only to fail to emerge. You are creating the building and have to wait for that magma is exhausted, that this reservoir, which is very large, since it takes more than 60 days feeding an eruption will come a time that fails to have enough pressure to keep it and finish. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much longer could be erupting eruption in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not really know for now what we’re observing and analysis that we are seeing is that the magma evolves, it will crystallize, and if he is to be crystallized by cooling, and seems to be There blend with new magma, which is not fed back bone, and that shortens the phase of eruption, but we can not rule that any time there is a new feedback and if not there must be quite late in the process. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What level is the volcanic cone now? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We know of bathymetry made by research vessels, and the last has a bathymetry is the “Sarmiento de Gamboa”, and the shallower water is 150 meters above. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Is it possible that the final surface to surface the volcano? Carmen Lopez (IGN): For now it is very difficult because it has a lot of water and it still is seen to be a fissure eruption, that is, not only out of that cone but comes in other areas of the fissure. Moreover, it has crumbling, there flank collapses and is a very unstable material, then it is not easy to go to surface, but also depends on how much time is being broadcast. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you completely rule out an eruption in the north? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not discard anything, this is a seismic event that is partly predictable behavior, but in the short term, then all we can say is that now with the parameters to activity, has no that is, but we can not say that in future, if these patterns change was more likely. Canary Import Digital Journal: appropriate measures were taken to Los Roquille and evacuations? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We never question such as IGN emergency measures, our role and our obligation is to have a network of surveillance and alert and advise the leadership of PEVOLCA Plan, but we do not question the emergency measures for the population . Digital Journal Canary Matters: What do you think the president does not attend council meetings PEVOLCA? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I’m saying is exactly what we’re here as an institute responsible for the volcanic surveillance and warning can not be responsible, rather than this, and not think about other issues. Canary Import Digital Journal: Was there fear with earthquakes greater than 4 degrees, a rash on earth? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Yes. It was really a bit of a shame, and sometimes it is inevitable but at the time an official of the centers that are responsible, there is information created in a very random people not only irresponsible, but he has no knowledge . Digital Journal Canary Matters: Like what? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I say I can not for example, but the idea was to see a rash on earth is supported options sometimes people who were not professional, and that is dangerous. It is especially dangerous because sometimes a negative image is created rather than a positive one, and these things must be very careful because the wind to launch an idea makes you responsible for it, and there are people who have been very scared and has unnecessarily through a lot I think. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you ever known the truth of what happened in El Hierro? Carmen Lopez (IGN): No, of course by IGN have a website where all the data, and that has not ever done. In real time you can see the real-time seismic signals and deformations, have all the seismic catalog of 12000 earthquakes. It really is all the information there. Of course besides that is information that is a replica, there is much work already has a scientific level that is not to put on a website, but really the information displayed is as evident in the evolution of the eruptive process , here it has happened to people after 4 months to meet and talk to us can interpret the tremor, learn, tell us why this has less magnitude earthquake has been felt? I mean, really, and there is knowledge and what we say at times, has had a positive part science, but has had a training which I think is very good that the islanders and in general the Canary Islands and Spain, have learned many concepts and to see an eruptive process from the beginning in July until you know you know it’s a rash, you see the products of the eruption, which I think is not forgotten, and in reverse, which serves as education. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you think that after the eruption will continue to serve and report on the volcanic phenomena? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I hope so, because there is no doubt that there are sites that are part of culture. In Madrid, is part of the culture of a child to learn these things, but here is part of everyday life, then I think that in the Canaries have to join the process of education from toddlers all the knowledge needed to live with volcanoes assets, to live with earthquakes, live with a process that can be repeated and may not be at sea. The next may be on land, not known, then we believe that we must not lose this opportunity and have to keep reminding the kids, they now know what the magma, which is the lava, which is a pyroclastic , which is the tremor, and do not forget. That makes the time you know live with risk, which is a very important thing for people Canaria. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How long does it take to recover the Sea of ​​Calm? Carmen Lopez (IGN): That’s what biologists know more, we are experts in surveillance, we are not experts in biology, but they are saying it will be faster than expected, there really is a huge amount of nutrients in water, in fact here the neighbors have told us that now there are algae that were not years green algae on the rocks, and is having nutrients and have left many shells, and probably end in an explosion of life at the time as possible, in which a little clean water. What I have listened to the experts is that within a period of 6 months / 1 year, no one knows of course, since then the recovery will be total, even going to reach cleanup levels greater than before. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Why did it take so long to get the Spanish Oceanographic Institute ships? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Because the eruption could have been on the ground and was no good you have a boat you pay a lot day to have it seasonal here, is the same, because it has come at sea, for if it had come ashore would have needed some planes to make a photogrammetric survey of the progress of the lava, I mean you can not have ships and planes waiting to know where you are going out, and really until the last minute really did not know where. I was actually 1.5 km from earth, but really did not know if he would be grounded if it would be at sea, if I was going to start offshore and would continue to ground. So I think that is natural, you can not have 4 months a research vessel waiting to see if it is useful or a plane. And I think it really starts when the rash is when you put all the means for the study. In that sense I think that the criticisms that have been made to the performance of the vessels has been based on ignorance of what it means to have these resources. Digital Journal Canary Matters: It is assumed that studies are conducted with the same equipment … why there are different interpretations of the results (IGN, CSIC, Carracedo …)? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The interpretation of the data makes it who have the data, and data are held by the IGN, ie belongs Carracedo and has participated in the scientific committee and I think that has no other interpretation of that There, I think not. In science the gap is very important, this is not an exact science and 100% predictable, then even good, I think it’s a good job to question things. It makes the best scientific method is to see the data and begin to speak, and there are times when great things contrary expert opinion and that makes you the summary of that process of questioning what the data means that the answer does better, is more reliable. So I think it is a difficult process, realize that when the eruption comes out you know everything, you know it’s a volcano, but what began as an intrusion to 15 km depth that is migrating underneath all the building’s volcanic Hierro. Who knows if it will come out? We are 15 km, that in our heads is a number, but in reality 15 km of a rigid material is much, who knows if it will reach the top. And I really could not have come. We did not know we were talking about magma, which has pressure, which is broken at that depth that allows them to ascend, it really is normal to question and I think that’s not bad, and does not mean they know less, not you mean that scientists found, means that the scientific method is based on questioning the observable data that is incomplete, it is measured from the surface something that happens in the inner bark, has a normal partial data and question the interpretations. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you invited foreign scientists to this monitoring process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): As this is a committee of experts and there is much renowned Spanish experts and experienced both in the Canaries, as in Spain, which are those involved, but there has also been consulting with people with whom scientists are working on for years, and whether it has consulted with them, have seen the data, and have argued, bone has sought counseling. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the vision of scientists from other sites regarding this process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): First of each volcano is different, meaning that you speak with a Mexican expert and he is accustomed to its volcanoes, that maybe are more frequent eruptions in them, who already know, this case was not as easy as 300 years ago there was virtually no eruptive activity in El Hierro. In fact there was no instrumental record of how one thing starts here. Then he also had a chance of large underwater volcano off, since there are many volcanoes, there is very little territory outside the water, then I think they have followed with great interest and has had difficulty tracking. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Can any science influence eruptive process? I’m thinking about the weather, for example. Carmen Lopez (IGN): The most influential are the tides, that people have mentioned, and of course will have a tidal component, because it is a fluid, just as there is an ocean tide, earth tide there. Even on land that is rigid has a tidal effect, and bulges and back again subject to the gravity of the moon, sun and even other planets and of course the magma is a fluid will be subject to a tidal effect of any other material of the earth has a tidal effect, but in this case was the effect certainly ruled over the rash. When there were more earthquakes there was some correlation between the seismicity with the tides, but one thing is that this phenomenon exists and another is to explain everything about it. We are here 24 hours and while there is light we observe the phenomenon on the surface and there was no more or less, in fact today (yesterday) brown spot appears larger than when the moon was full, what happens is that sometimes it is very nice to think that the moon alone can command a rash and not true. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What has and that this phenomenon can contribute to science? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Very much so, first the experience of this phenomenon makes us who are the responsible institution in Spain volcanic surveillance and warning have more knowledge. This is like if you have a surgery, you are a doctor and have never had a patient, know a lot of books and are even able to do an operation but have never done it and here has been a patient, we had a rash. Since 1971 there has been no eruption in the Canary Islands and throughout the Spanish territory. First experience, and that makes you re-evaluated and have seen that you were wrong in the instrumentation, what would you do with this experience if you were to ride again, with all this knowledge into the next eruption will we know much more, the monitoring network that always works with or without rash, always operating networks, and daily work. We are about 35 people, working with a rash or no rash, we will make things much more informed. And more often than if we would know far more eruptions. So to us has been scientifically very well and will get better or just the management aspect of the next eruption, volcanological knowledge but itself. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much time passed Jan l IGN data center in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): 24 hours. There are three shifts of people rotating every 8 hours, at night there are people, for the day. Digital Journal Canary Matter: But have life? Carmen Lopez (IGN): If we have because we rotate that’s the good part, we are a very large group, then we rotate. So we’re here a week, then we fly to and come to cas others and virtually the entire team has already happened in these 4 months here on El Hierro, and IGN is strong that not only has instrumentation, but has staff., and endure the months that may be required here. Javier Gil Perez Digital Journal Canary Matter Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the status of eruptive seismic process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The volcano continues to emit, but the eruptive process began in July, the eruption began on October 10 and since then has not stopped as shown in the tremor signal. There is a constant vibration produced by the magma as it leaves the crack and this has not stopped in recent months, but there is a much reduced activity that accompanies an eruption, which is the seismicity and deformations. Right now there is very little seismicity. The seismicity was the parameter most notorious and what we found earlier, on July 19 began to see that there was an anomalous seismicity in the north of the island of El Hierro, and this number increased seismicity and also migrated, was from the area north of the Gulf, across the entire island from north to south, migrating through which he would open, allowing the magma moved forward and finished in the sea calms and on October 10 began to surface, but at the surface of the ocean floor, not on land, water was over, but the rash is exactly like it was on the ground. Digital Journal Canary Matters: now CO2 emissions both in La Restinga as in La Frontera, what level are you? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The parameters that are most anomalous seismicity, which has fallen and the deformation that might collect 5 cm of deformation, the bulge that this intrusion beneath the island created. And the gases have been less spectacular, has been an increase especially CO2, but it is quite natural because there are less intrusive and at the end of small cracks makes it to the surface, but levels are not too large, and in the last steps to be non-tip which is the body which is now doing more campaigns, they even say they are stabilizing and referring. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the next phase? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Wait, this is a flare-up, has no seismicity, but it has deformations, surface when you look out to sea once there is a brown head and a very large green spot is because it is emitting, and part of the materials reach the surface. The brown part is thin material, which are ash, and continues to spew, and certainly continues to spew lava fragments, such as those seen in the cultural center of La Restinga, only to fail to emerge. You are creating the building and have to wait for that magma is exhausted, that this reservoir, which is very large, since it takes more than 60 days feeding an eruption will come a time that fails to have enough pressure to keep it and finish. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much longer could be erupting eruption in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not really know for now what we’re observing and analysis that we are seeing is that the magma evolves, it will crystallize, and if he is to be crystallized by cooling, and seems to be There blend with new magma, which is not fed back bone, and that shortens the phase of eruption, but we can not rule that any time there is a new feedback and if not there must be quite late in the process. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What level is the volcanic cone now? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We know of bathymetry made by research vessels, and the last has a bathymetry is the “Sarmiento de Gamboa”, and the shallower water is 150 meters above. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Is it possible that the final surface to surface the volcano? Carmen Lopez (IGN): For now it is very difficult because it has a lot of water and it still is seen to be a fissure eruption, that is, not only out of that cone but comes in other areas of the fissure. Moreover, it has crumbling, there flank collapses and is a very unstable material, then it is not easy to go to surface, but also depends on how much time is being broadcast. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you completely rule out an eruption in the north? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Do not discard anything, this is a seismic event that is partly predictable behavior, but in the short term, then all we can say is that now with the parameters to activity, has no that is, but we can not say that in future, if these patterns change was more likely. Canary Import Digital Journal: appropriate measures were taken to Los Roquille and evacuations? Carmen Lopez (IGN): We never question such as IGN emergency measures, our role and our obligation is to have a network of surveillance and alert and advise the leadership of PEVOLCA Plan, but we do not question the emergency measures for the population . Digital Journal Canary Matters: What do you think the president does not attend council meetings PEVOLCA? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I’m saying is exactly what we’re here as an institute responsible for the volcanic surveillance and warning can not be responsible, rather than this, and not think about other issues. Canary Import Digital Journal: Was there fear with earthquakes greater than 4 degrees, a rash on earth? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Yes. It was really a bit of a shame, and sometimes it is inevitable but at the time an official of the centers that are responsible, there is information created in a very random people not only irresponsible, but he has no knowledge . Digital Journal Canary Matters: Like what? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I say I can not for example, but the idea was to see a rash on earth is supported options sometimes people who were not professional, and that is dangerous. It is especially dangerous because sometimes a negative image is created rather than a positive one, and these things must be very careful because the wind to launch an idea makes you responsible for it, and there are people who have been very scared and has unnecessarily through a lot I think. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you ever known the truth of what happened in El Hierro? Carmen Lopez (IGN): No, of course by IGN have a website where all the data, and that has not ever done. In real time you can see the real-time seismic signals and deformations, have all the seismic catalog of 12000 earthquakes. It really is all the information there. Of course besides that is information that is a replica, there is much work already has a scientific level that is not to put on a website, but really the information displayed is as evident in the evolution of the eruptive process , here it has happened to people after 4 months to meet and talk to us can interpret the tremor, learn, tell us why this has less magnitude earthquake has been felt? I mean, really, and there is knowledge and what we say at times, has had a positive part science, but has had a training which I think is very good that the islanders and in general the Canary Islands and Spain, have learned many concepts and to see an eruptive process from the beginning in July until you know you know it’s a rash, you see the products of the eruption, which I think is not forgotten, and in reverse, which serves as education. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Do you think that after the eruption will continue to serve and report on the volcanic phenomena? Carmen Lopez (IGN): I hope so, because there is no doubt that there are sites that are part of culture. In Madrid, is part of the culture of a child to learn these things, but here is part of everyday life, then I think that in the Canaries have to join the process of education from toddlers all the knowledge needed to live with volcanoes assets, to live with earthquakes, live with a process that can be repeated and may not be at sea. The next may be on land, not known, then we believe that we must not lose this opportunity and have to keep reminding the kids, they now know what the magma, which is the lava, which is a pyroclastic , which is the tremor, and do not forget. That makes the time you know live with risk, which is a very important thing for people Canaria. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How long does it take to recover the Sea of ​​Calm? Carmen Lopez (IGN): That’s what biologists know more, we are experts in surveillance, we are not experts in biology, but they are saying it will be faster than expected, there really is a huge amount of nutrients in water, in fact here the neighbors have told us that now there are algae that were not years green algae on the rocks, and is having nutrients and have left many shells, and probably end in an explosion of life at the time as possible, in which a little clean water. What I have listened to the experts is that within a period of 6 months / 1 year, no one knows of course, since then the recovery will be total, even going to reach cleanup levels greater than before. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Why did it take so long to get the Spanish Oceanographic Institute ships? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Because the eruption could have been on the ground and was no good you have a boat you pay a lot day to have it seasonal here, is the same, because it has come at sea, for if it had come ashore would have needed some planes to make a photogrammetric survey of the progress of the lava, I mean you can not have ships and planes waiting to know where you are going out, and really until the last minute really did not know where. I was actually 1.5 km from earth, but really did not know if he would be grounded if it would be at sea, if I was going to start offshore and would continue to ground. So I think that is natural, you can not have 4 months a research vessel waiting to see if it is useful or a plane. And I think it really starts when the rash is when you put all the means for the study. In that sense I think that the criticisms that have been made to the performance of the vessels has been based on ignorance of what it means to have these resources. Digital Journal Canary Matters: It is assumed that studies are conducted with the same equipment … why there are different interpretations of the results (IGN, CSIC, Carracedo …)? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The interpretation of the data makes it who have the data, and data are held by the IGN, ie belongs Carracedo and has participated in the scientific committee and I think that has no other interpretation of that There, I think not. In science the gap is very important, this is not an exact science and 100% predictable, then even good, I think it’s a good job to question things. It makes the best scientific method is to see the data and begin to speak, and there are times when great things contrary expert opinion and that makes you the summary of that process of questioning what the data means that the answer does better, is more reliable. So I think it is a difficult process, realize that when the eruption comes out you know everything, you know it’s a volcano, but what began as an intrusion to 15 km depth that is migrating underneath all the building’s volcanic Hierro. Who knows if it will come out? We are 15 km, that in our heads is a number, but in reality 15 km of a rigid material is much, who knows if it will reach the top. And I really could not have come. We did not know we were talking about magma, which has pressure, which is broken at that depth that allows them to ascend, it really is normal to question and I think that’s not bad, and does not mean they know less, not you mean that scientists found, means that the scientific method is based on questioning the observable data that is incomplete, it is measured from the surface something that happens in the inner bark, has a normal partial data and question the interpretations. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Have you invited foreign scientists to this monitoring process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): As this is a committee of experts and there is much renowned Spanish experts and experienced both in the Canaries, as in Spain, which are those involved, but there has also been consulting with people with whom scientists are working on for years, and whether it has consulted with them, have seen the data, and have argued, bone has sought counseling. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the vision of scientists from other sites regarding this process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): First of each volcano is different, meaning that you speak with a Mexican expert and he is accustomed to its volcanoes, that maybe are more frequent eruptions in them, who already know, this case was not as easy as 300 years ago there was virtually no eruptive activity in El Hierro. In fact there was no instrumental record of how one thing starts here. Then he also had a chance of large underwater volcano off, since there are many volcanoes, there is very little territory outside the water, then I think they have followed with great interest and has had difficulty tracking. Digital Journal Canary Matters: Can any science influence eruptive process? I’m thinking about the weather, for example. Carmen Lopez (IGN): The most influential are the tides, that people have mentioned, and of course will have a tidal component, because it is a fluid, just as there is an ocean tide, earth tide there. Even on land that is rigid has a tidal effect, and bulges and back again subject to the gravity of the moon, sun and even other planets and of course the magma is a fluid will be subject to a tidal effect of any other material of the earth has a tidal effect, but in this case was the effect certainly ruled over the rash. When there were more earthquakes there was some correlation between the seismicity with the tides, but one thing is that this phenomenon exists and another is to explain everything about it. We are here 24 hours and while there is light we observe the phenomenon on the surface and there was no more or less, in fact today (yesterday) brown spot appears larger than when the moon was full, what happens is that sometimes it is very nice to think that the moon alone can command a rash and not true. Digital Journal Canary Matters: What has and that this phenomenon can contribute to science? Carmen Lopez (IGN): Very much so, first the experience of this phenomenon makes us who are the responsible institution in Spain volcanic surveillance and warning have more knowledge. This is like if you have a surgery, you are a doctor and have never had a patient, know a lot of books and are even able to do an operation but have never done it and here has been a patient, we had a rash. Since 1971 there has been no eruption in the Canary Islands and throughout the Spanish territory. First experience, and that makes you re-evaluated and have seen that you were wrong in the instrumentation, what would you do with this experience if you were to ride again, with all this knowledge into the next eruption will we know much more, the monitoring network that always works with or without rash, always operating networks, and daily work. We are about 35 people, working with a rash or no rash, we will make things much more informed. And more often than if we would know far more eruptions. So to us has been scientifically very well and will get better or just the management aspect of the next eruption, volcanological knowledge but itself. Digital Journal Canary Matters: How much time passed Jan l IGN data center in La Restinga? Carmen Lopez (IGN): 24 hours. There are three shifts of people rotating every 8 hours, at night there are people, for the day. Digital Journal Canary Matter: But have life? Carmen Lopez (IGN): If we have because we rotate that’s the good part, we are a very large group, then we rotate. So we’re here a week, then we fly to and come to cas others and virtually the entire team has already happened in these 4 months here on El Hierro, and IGN is strong that not only has instrumentation, but has staff., and endure the months that may be required here. Javier Gil Perez Digital Journal Canary Matter Digital Journal Canary Matters: What is the status of eruptive seismic process? Carmen Lopez (IGN): The volcano continues to emit, but the eruptive process began in July, the eruption began on October 10 and since then has not stopped as shown in the tremor signal. There is a constant vibration produced by the magma as it leaves the crack and this has not stopped in recent months, but there is a much reduced activity that accompanies an eruption, which is the seismicity and deformations. Right now there is very little seismicity. The seismicity was the parameter most notorious and what we found earlier, on July 19 began to see that there was an anomalous seismicity in the north of the island of El Hierro, and this number increased seismicity and also migrated, was from the area north of the Gulf, across the entire island from north to south, migrating through which he would open, allowing the magma moved forward and finishe
    • Is it me, or do you get a sense of déjà vu while reading that… ‘I think I’ve read that before… oh yeah a few paragraphs ago” 😀

      So, in a nutshell, they clammed up when the politicians got involved since politicians and their entourage tend to mis-interpret and make bullshit statements that are not backed by the actual data.

      Makes sense.

      As for what data “is only of a scientific nature” and not published… what? The viewing public is not advanced enough to understand it?

      That’s all I’m going to say about that… a litany of profanity will not help the matter.

  15. Talking or Rashes 🙂 Iceland’s weekend rash has cleared up. Do you thinK Katla and Co.are allergic to the local beer? They only seem to get bad rashes at the weekend.
    I am saying nothing about the above post except to say I thought my scroll button was playing up :(…I have heard it all before. Nobody really knows anything. Everyone including scientists are as wise as each other. here on this blog we have been very careful to state that we are not scare mongers. That Bob is a fissure eruption that nobody really knows how it is going to behave. We have taken great pains to calm fears about land slips, tsunamis& mega eruptions etc. I think we have played a part in giving the local people support and being honest.
    I for one will still be here when Bob fades into a memory, OK I may be talking about another eruption somewhere but i will never forget the patience and bravery of the people of El Hierro. I honestly hope Bob will go back to sleep before Christmas and give those Islanders chance to relax and find some peace of mind.

    • Nice. I have now spent about a half an hour looking for some of the cited reference material… while cooking breakfast and lunch. (I typically eat breakfast and lunch at about 3 pm depending on my schedule)

  16. I did not wish to scaremonger anyone regarding El Hierro its just been in my mind today and I wrote down what I personally feel that it must be like waiting for a TB. If you wish to delete my post about mentionin a TB please do.

    • I just cannot imagine anybody considering your comments as “scaremongering”. Personally, I find it much more scary when people do not (want to) see possible dangers.

    • Living with this level of uncertainty must be very unpleasant and unsettling for the people on El Hierro.

      As Sissel says, it is better to recognise risks and deal with them, rather than play them down – or be seen to play them down.

      • Oh, I don’t know if it’s that bad.

        Imagine living on the Gulf Coast and keeping a eye on a wandering Cat 5 that doesn’t seem to know where it wants to go.

        Is it unpleasant? Yeah. But it’s also part of life.

      • During hurricane season, half of my time is spent second guessing the weather guessers and keeping my wife sane despite what some idiot bobble-head says on TV.

        After a while you get pretty good at reading 500 mb wind barbs.

        • But dear Geolurking, if a hurricane heads at your home and you see the monster coming – I am almost sure you will take action and seek shelter. You won’t say “oh that happens so often and it never hit me yet”, will you?

          Wonder if my friend looked upon me as a bobble-head when I begged him to use the safety belt in the car.

  17. Suppose (only suppose) than what told yesterday to Angel in the CAP out truth, then we are saying: 1. installers unable to fix some solar panels, leave them floating in the wind, and IGN see how they affect the seismograph and say nothing, not even send someone to reinforce the installation so that they do not shake moreno break and the sensor readings are reliable.
    2. IGN has had a bug in the computer program that has left in the dark about what is happening in the CORC station, in the midst of a volcanic eruption. The bug began on the evening of last Friday and today still has not fixed.

    It is what it says IGN, no one is what is inventing… in my house this is called incompetence (Translated by Bing)

    • Or lack of resources: money and personnel.

      Looks like decision makers have still not got their head round the fact that no-one really knows for sure what will happen and that constant monitoring has to be a priority.

  18. hmm this thread is getting rather long for my tired old PC, any chance the volcano cafe dragon can start a fresh blog post?

  19. I agree with E Lane about the new thread thing. Might be a good idea.

    Meanwhile, here is a picture of a rock that I took. I think it’s in Egypt, but I’m not sure. It’s definitely somewhere in the Red Sea.

    It looked interesting, so I took a picture. No, I don’t know what it’s make up is.

  20. Keeping things cool is very good, and El Hierro is not Yellowstone, and Wagabond is basically right to put things in the context of the past (even if that gives no guarantee in matters of potential evolutions), but it pisses me off to be told a fearmonger because I say it is dangerous to live on a volcano. Even if I know that 90% of us will die of heart problems, cancer or car accidents. Those starving normally don’t have internet…
    Walking on the ground of Vulcano/Vulcanello crater is dangerous because of the accumulated gases that some days might build a layer of 1 to 2 meters of thikness. That’s not fearmongering avout this volcano, for example. Stating volcanoes are not to be taken with total cautiousness is just like giving a shit on tire pressure when you make 200km/h on the highway.
    Who among the interested in volcanology would now go and buy a house on El Hierro? Who? If the only thing that is to expect is a “tourist attraction” kind of activity… If I was a local it would be the lack of transparency in informations that would make me mad, not some volcanophiles exchanging thoughts, especially if they have the decency to repeat and repeat and repeat that they are not pro’s.
    Those who know exactly what is and will be might still have a lot to learn. Lack of humility, especially when facing nature’s powers and complexity, is no sign of maturity or intelligence. Signs of an arrogant society that now pisses its pants when one can’t have his easy jet flight for 3 days. Is it fearmongering to imagine that we might see something more than Eyja’s fart in terms of volcanism an during our lifetime? Of course it will not come from Bobby, that we have as a time killer waiting for more interesting activity – be honest…
    Imagining that a differentiated magma and pressure build up could lead to some kind of more explosive ans onland activity in the El Hierro context has nothing to do with fearmongering about a CME triggering global seismicity.
    Oh I’m so not made for socializing. Between the 2012ers and those who don’t want to accept that it can be uncool to live on an active volcanoes, it’s hard to find people to talk with. But let me please the hardcore non-fearmongers: on a global scale, whatever the worst-case scenario in the El Hierro case will be – the damage and consequences, including maximum human losses, just doesn’t play anything like the tiniest role. The world and humanity doesn’t give a sh… about whatever will happen there. We have other problems. So go on, live on this hill and don’t bother with what could be or not. Wouldn’t like to dissapoint anyone’s pink-world phantasies with commenting the fact that an active volcano can be good for surprises. The real specialists know that eeeeverything is under control.
    Don’t answer this – you can’t imagine how I would stupidly smile reading it…

  21. ER report.
    Famous last words!!!
    Update 20/12 – 10:18 UTC
    – Harmonic tremor is further decreasing the last couple of hours. We would not be surprised that this eruption will come to a complete stop very soon (at least for now).

    • Hmmm. ER has declared Bob dead multiple times already. First wait and se
      e. Another thing, isn’t anybody worried about Carl not showib
      ng up yet? Or have I missed something?

      • Nelly, I got an email from Carl on Sunday saying that he is exhausted after travelling. I expect he’s just taking some time out to rest and perhaps take care of last minute Christmassy stuff and hopefully he’ll be back soon.

        In the meanwhile, this thread is getting to be very long, I agree, and the volcano cafe is preparing a new post to show up today…

        • Thanks for the update Ursula, I paused in the middle of my note ….and you beat me to it. Glad he is home, but not surprised that he’s exhausted. Looking forward to new post….

        • I am glad to hear that. Hope that he can get his rest and look forward to him posting on the blog again. Thanks for the update!

      • Yes, I’m concerned, especially given the risks where he was…. but maybe he has business or family issues that he needs to put before volcano-watching. I’m sure he’ll be back with us when he is able. Hope he knows we ARE thinking of him!

        • @Kathryn, he was back in Sweden when he emailed me on Sunday, so that should be fine. 🙂 I am sure he will be very pleased that so many people are asking about him when he is back.

    • Yes, people, let’s move to the Little Prince’s asteroid, please – this comment thread is getting to be too long for some participants…

  22. The spot is since this morning and longer in some cases wider. I think the color is light gray again. Someone had explained in this blog that are ash constituents in the water. Since it is very stormy today, can be deceiving.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s