El Hierro – Day 3!

Photograph by photosaereasdecanarias.com Tanganasoga volcano, one of the possible places where the new eruption will occur.

Today we have seen a change in the behaviour at Pevolca, now they have changed the level of alarm from green all over the island, to yellow for Julan and La Dehesa. They are also asking everyone on the island to familiarise themselves with the plans for evacuation and self protection.

Image courtesy of IGN for Volcano Café. The image is showing the Seismograph station of Julan. It was during yesterday giving the highest values of all the stations on El Hierro. The center of the probable source yesterday was in the area from Tanganasoga to Humilladores.

The center for the current magmatic earthquake swarm has moved slowly since yesterday to the west and south. And the magmatic component of the waveforms have increased in clarity. As you can see in the image above (provided directly by courtesy from IGN to Volcano Café) the center of attention yesterday was at Julan. There has also been rapid inflation during the last two days with clear movement patterns associated with magmatic movement, and new magma arrival. The numbers are high for such a short time period, between 2 and 3 centimeters. Commentator Vishy pointed me to a paper by Stroncik regarding chrystalization in magmatic chambers, and in this case the depth necessary is somewhere between 16 and 23 kilometers down. This means that the earthquakes we have seen in this depth region is where the magma chambers are.

Image by IGN. As you can see the band of red and blue is moving to the southwest. The area is showing part of the magma chamber system under El Hierro.

As you can see in the image this increases the risk for an eruption occuring in the southern fissure zone ranging from La Restinga up towards Tanganasoga. If a new feeder channel is opening up we will first see migratory earthquakes in the region between 16 and 8 kilometres, after that we will most likely see an onset of eruption within a few hours. It is therefore very important to study carefully the plots to see where the conduit is forming. The likelihood of a new eruption starting is now very high. I would like to tell any readers of this blog who lives on El Hierro to check often for new data, especially the IGN Earthquake positioning map. If you live in the area ontop of where the earthquakes are forming in the 16 – 8 kilometer depth level, you would do well by moving yourself away to safer grounds, best and safest part is to the northeast on the island (very low risk for eruption there). You are of course welcome to check in here also for new information in the comments, if anything happens it is most likely to find the information you need there. http://www.01.ign.es/ign/resources/volcanologia/jpg/Eventos_HIERRO_2D.jpg

Image by IGN. A nice and very clear image of a Longperiod Earthquake (LP event). Thanks to commenter Judith who pointed it out for me.


860 thoughts on “El Hierro – Day 3!

  1. Just whizzed by for a bit, ate some (tons!) of spam and found total information overload in the comments. You people are remarkable!! 🙂
    /back to semi-lurking until the large deadline has passed, should be back to normal by the weekend

  2. You get what you vote for. Our Senate hasn’t passed a budget in over 1000 days.

    As losses mount, federal officials insist they have enough resources despite the fact that their firefighting budget has been cut by more than $200 million since 2010.

    They now face 19 large, active fires across the West.

    The big air tankers that drop fire retardant are a key resource that’s diminishing. There were 43 tankers a decade ago; now there are 17. One tanker crashed last week, killing two pilots. Another made an emergency landing when a gear failed to come down.

    It’s such a serious problem that Colorado Sen. Mark Udall got a bill through Congress to let the Forest Service sign contracts to lease seven more tankers.


    • You got this all wrong. Of course the reason for the fires isn’t budget cuts, it’s global warming – just like Katrina. (Who is going to write “A convenient lie”?)

    • Hi Lurk, you are right,I am a former Airtanker Pilot, near 10 years in the industry.
      When the USFS decided to eleiminate the “old” piston engine tankers they eliminated
      all of the DC4’s and DC6/7s these aircraft had the best safety record three fatalies in 40
      or so years of use, two mid-airs and pilot error. period. Now we see Convair 580’s in Colorado from Conair in Canada, When Butler’s three DC7’s are only used in Oregon and California these are heavy tankers 3000 gallons. The newest Convair is four years
      older than the oldest DC7.The USFS has all but eliminated Airtakers from Inial attack.
      This is now showing…
      With the demise of Aero Union (Due to some internal company problems not politcs btw.)
      Their P-3s are gone. at least for this year. There are some new aircraft, the BAE146,
      a four engine (I like four engines btw) that seems to be good choice if they can get the
      load dispersal down. Then there are the VLA Very Large Airtankers. The two DC-10’s and Evergreen’s 747 one DC10 is flying but it is sitting in Boise…The other two are
      cooling their heels?jets? with no contract…Seems 11-14,000 gallons of retardant.
      isn’t a priority ….
      One other thng Tood Tomkins the Captain of Tanker 11 that crashed, was a good
      friend and he and I shared a Captain in our early day. His leagacy and others deserve better…

  3. Etna – tremor rising sharply, already past 9 on EBELZ and 7 on ECPNZ. Keep an eye on, could be the start of the long-awaited umpteenth paroxysm of the current cycle, but it could also turn out to be no more than another one of the small ash explosions prevalent after the last paroxysm.

  4. Good evening everyone, Greetings from Tenerife…. wow what a lot has been going on here today…information overload – it has taken me ages to catch up. Just a quick note to inform that I think the Calima in the Canaries is on it´s way out…the temperature at this time yesterday was 36 celcius, and tonight is has gone down to 25 celcius (where I am anyway). Visabilty is still pretty bad, but now that we have a much cooler temperature and at least a bit of a breeze going on to blow the sand away, I am pretty sure that the dust cloud will start to diminish by tomorrow…if there is anything worth seeing on El Hierro, I bet that Joke Volta over on ER.com will have her camera at the ready…or if they were to re-install the webcams on El Hierro that would be even better..but i suppose that is just wishful thinking…

  5. Didn’t they receive some money to help the population? This would be a job for someone, right? It’s not like they have to purchase the equipment.

    • You beat me to it Bobbi, however it certainly looked larger than a 3.5 mag. Just goes to show. What it goes to show I am not so sure of. 😉

      • Hi there Newby, how are you feeling today? Hope you are not getting too confident and disobeying the doctor´s orders already…LOLUV xx

        • Ermmm, 😳 I am trying to be good. I now know that when I get breathless it is a time to stop and rest but it is SUCH a nuisance. I don’t enjoy resting at all. Mind you, this blog helps, keeps me sitting at the computer anyway.
          !s anyway taking any estimates as to when or if anything will surface this time? As the quakes seem to be staying deep I will go for a week.

          • well as you know I am definitely the furthest thing away from an expert as you could hope to find, but from what I have been reading here, I think I would go for less than a week…but what do I know??? Please be good and don´t overdo things xx

          • Thanks Debbie. That just reminded me to check the clock and as it is 10:05 here I must soon be off to bed, so time to say Goodnight All.

    • They MUST be getting worried. Seems they are now prepared to let people see that something could happen now. Mind you, any tourists there now would have to be deaf,blind and without and sense of feeling to not realise something is happening. Can’t cover it up any more.

  6. copied from Earthquake-Report.com
    “The Volcano Watch CAP center in La Restinga, where Joke was a daily admirer and client, will be reactivated because of the continuing volcano crisis. CAP was the local IGN control room and IGN personnel was following all the locally installed instruments. After the closure, the CAP tasks were transmitted to the IGN headquarters in Madrid” – it seems to me that someone has found some money from somewhere to fund this….which I find very reassuring…usually government or local authorities take so long to approve funding issues that by the time they are ready to be put into realtime effect, it´s too late..I think this is a very good sign of how seriously they are taking the situation…I just wonder, have any of them had the courtesy or taken the time to thank Carl Le Strange and Volcanocafe for the early warning……doubt it somehow

      • oops Hi Bobbi, you beat me too it…I get so busy composing my little post, taking time to check my spelling etc. then forget to refresh before I post, and look what happens!

      • But was that not PEVOLCA? Unless I missed something.. PEVOLCA is not just taking care of El Hierro, it stands for something like PLAN OF CIVIL PROTECTION FOR VOLCANIC RISKS IN THE CANARIES or something like that –

    • Yes because they get all their information from this blog and not from the various differing official sources. Right. Don’t flatter yourself over the impact of this site. This is just chattering in the background. I doubt the powers that be give it so much as a second glance. ‘Early warning’ from this site? Don’t make me laugh.

        • Maybe his words were not that soft, but he has a point. I think no one ever intended this to become whatever too serious. What comes out comes out, and this could be great, but it takes much more than clicking around in the net to do some real hazard and risk management.
          I’m very unhappy with spain’s communication politics in this situation. But we’re not an authority and should really not begin to think we have power, or should have some. I’m sorry to say reality is that it takes more than scientists to manage a crisis. Even if in this case for sure scientists should probably been given more importance.
          Please, guys, don’t start a big argument around that. Keep it all friendly and going on wildly and “happily” sharing views and infos.

      • @ Sam Taylor, yes you are probably right, but the first warning to the general pubic of what was going on in El Hirrro, happened here 3 days before the “Powers that Be” announced there could possibly be a “situation”. Living on a volcanic island myself, I will definitely have a better chance of an early warning here by following this blog, if anything is going to happen here i Tenerife, I would rather know sooner than later… what´s that old saying, forewarned is fore-armed…

      • You’ll be surprised how powerful blogs, facebook and other media can be now. This is not just a small-time blog. With up to 10,000 hits (I think I saw Carl post this figure recently) a day, this can carry some clout. Not to mention that it attracts visitors with considerable expertise to debate and analyse with those who just have an interest – authorities would be wise to take note of what is posted here. There is little political influence here – so we say it as it is – no bull. I am no expert but this blog is important to me and the many thousands who may follow without necessarily posting. This blog can tease some truths that may never otherwise surface and I’m sure influences how much information and data is eventually released for puiblic scrutiny. Long may the good work continue.

        • Yes. And I’m a lover of this community and the idea. But put yourself in the situation of the guy that really has to decide. Maaaaaybe it’s an element to ponder, but you have so much problems and influences to deal with that you don’t spend a 10% of your time reading blogs.
          And who would rely one something that is out at the slightest power failure to manage a crisis? 🙂

          • Sorry guys, this is one time I should better have “shut up”. I don’t mean to minimize anything that happens here. Just a side of me that makes me think that internet won’t make this a better world. There are more people dying from pollution by computer-production and the subsequent garbage problem than this blog is gonna save from volcanic eruptions.
            But who am I to say anything. How much comfort does it offer to have found other aficionados…

          • Good point. During the “Ice Storm” in Quebec, the first thing that went out was power. And internet service providers by cascading effect. The Web is dependant on so much infrastructure that it was a very frustrating mean of communication. At the time when we would have wanted it the most.

          • @ GeoLoco and Summer in Canada

            “….The Web is dependant on so much infrastructure that it was a very frustrating mean of communication. At the time when we would have wanted it the most.”

            Ahh… but that’s where the “human” of being human comes into play.

            Hurricane Ivan kicked this towns arse… and we were without power for a few weeks. However, I did have access to the Internet prior to that and saw full well what was coming and the need to prepare. I had run wind field projections and was quite sobered at the pending events.

            I also knew from the Internet, what ratios of chlorine I needed should my potable water stores ran out.

            I have never been one that craves constant public contact, and am quite comfortable “in my own skin.” Part of it is how I was brought up, the other parts are just accumulation of practical knowledge along the way. All in all it’s the adaptability that being “human” gives us.

            The Internet is cool.. and crucial to data freaks like me… but it’s not critical.

    • Wow. We all like our little club here, and Carl for sure is a fine, brilliant minded fellow. But we shouldn’t forget what this is. Even if it might be of interest for whatever, it’s basically hobbyists wildly exchanging thoughts, plots, some gathered facts; and sharing passion and fun. We are what we are, and that’s cool, but don’t imagine the 12’000 views we might get today make it official or give it real influence or something.

        • I think I understood that too. But then what did that change? And if it had a positive impact, then it’s super, but it’s his personal achievement or credibility as a pro physicist with solid knowledge in volcanology. Not the “happy bunch” we are. Most of us just don’t have the background to pretend influencing authorities in such important decisions. Wikipedia, blogs and looking at quakes and spectrograms doesn’t make a volcanologist or risk specialist you can rely on to evacuate people. In the best case it’s a hint that you could follow, or that gives you another, fresh view. But you can’t start to follow that blindly. Your job as a pro is to stay focussed and apply the rules that have been set for crisis management.

          • Lurking,
            I’m not a native speaker, but I tried to chose my words a little bit. I said “most of us”… 🙂
            And the corpulent one for sure is not really the whole machine we would call authorities.

          • I don’t speak native either. Choctaw and Blackfoot never were in my learning bucket. I also don’t know Natchez, Seminole, Creek, Algonquin, Cherokee, Arapaho, Cree, Pueblo or any of the various other native languages.

            German, Scotch, Gaelic… nope. Though I have heritage in that direction. Matter of fact, even my English is somewhat questionable… when I go back and read some of the tripe that I post. 😀

            My only point was that even the pedestal dwellers can be affected by us down here in the peanut gallery. It’s a good thing too… since it sure would be irritating when we start throwing rocks at them to get their attention.

        • Debbie at 21.29 is completely right. It’s the info that lacks from official site, and that’s a fantastic achievement.
          But I don’t think the authorities would have done anything different if that warning in here had not been issued. They have the info, and they have the necessary stuff. It’s political decisions that influence how it’s communicated. Some scientists “there” didn’t think anything different than we do 3 days ago…

          • Oh shucks GeoLoco, I really don´t think anyone has ever said that I was completely right about anything before,,,,,´but I do totally think that you are completely right too…it is the lack of offical information that leads people to look on the internet for any information..and this can be dangerous as not all sites are as reliable and as responsible as this one…the only reason I found Volcanocafe, was because i was looking for information that the offical bodies were not giving…and believe me before I found VC I happened accross a number of really stupid and rubbish blogs….what the authorities need to learn is that in this day and age of the internet, the public want more and more information and it they don´t get if from official sources then they will look elsewhere and that is not always a good thing, but on this blog thankfully, it is a brilliant thing

      • I just think the huge importance of this blog, for me at least, a daily lurker, and I think lots of others, is the fact that info and references and links are coming from many different directions and as you said many different people with each their own expertise—what is happening wherever, whenever can be found here in ‘a nutshell’. I choose what I want to investigate further or follow links as time permits or just do a quick scan. And it is great fun following the folks that keep this place moving and shaking!

    • This is my official opinion in this matter.
      We are a not in a direct way influencing things, Sam is absolutly correct in stating that.

      I do call and disturb people, but that is for confirmation of technical details and such.

      We are though one of the larger (if not the largest) blog concerning volcanoes on the planet, and as such we carry a wee bit clout, not on Pevolca per such, but for the politicians. 11 651 viewers per day is a rather large number to have pissed off.
      During the previous eruption we did not manage to change a lot.
      This for two reasons.
      1. We did not get a massive presence like today, we had been around for a too short time. Today we get first hits on almost any subject we write about. El Hierro chiefly.
      2. The last time they had a better grip on it, they simply could not get any input from us really. This time around we kind of cought them with their pants down.

      I would also like to note that some of the staff at IGN and Pevolca do read this site.
      This time around we did do a bit of public voice pressure, no more than that.

    • I’d been keeping an eye on for a while and just recently tabbed out of that window. Looked like it wasn’t moving anymore. Go figure – when the cat’s away, the mice will play. LOL

      • Time to go pick raspberries, strawberries, and wild red huckleberries and salmonberries for salad tonight.

        • Salmon berries? I have never come across those…… Another thing to Google….My! It’s amazing what new things I find on this blog.:D

          • Diana,
            They get their name from the color which can range from light salmon to dark salmon color. They have a delicate flavor and resemble a blackberry in morphology. They are very common here in the Pacific Northwest of US and Canada.

  7. Following the Spanish Newspaper El Mundo, a small submarine eruption has taken place 7 km out of the coast. The eruption occurred at 1200 meter below sea level. The eruption took place in the Las Calmas sea to the south of the island at 10.43 local time (09:43 UTC). We expect an official statement soon.
    The news comes from 4 boats presently navigating in the Las Calmas sea.
    – The present conditions are however totally different than on October 10 (earthquake parameters). Another difference is that todays action took place at approx. 20 km out of the coast.


    • Hi Karen, if that happened at 10.43 this morning, why is this the first we have heard of it? I have to say that today I have been suprised by the amout of coverage that the TV and Radio have given to the magma movements on El Hierro and the possibility of a volcanic errution…it seems a bit strange that this morsel of info has not reached main stream media yet.could it be that El Mundo is becoming a new version of the Daily Fail?

      • OMG sorry Karen, must be having double vision,,it is obviously Ilel100 at who I should have directed my comment to…,anyway after all that, it has been realised that it was a really old comment, so no harm done… Hi Ilel100…no worries here, just relieved that it was a false alarm….and that the authorities were hiding something from me– all the best, Debbie

  8. Iceland: nice swarm near the north side of Bardarbunga volcanic region, where there is a related shield volcano. Curiously, there has been a few quakes in recent days in another shield volcano south of Langjokull Skjáldbreiður.

    • And a deep one, almost as deep as the one at El Hierro but of course not even comparable in size

      28.06.2012 17:17:26 64.757 -17.224 15.9 km 0.4 99.0 2.8 km SSW of Kistufell
      28.06.2012 16:59:38 64.834 -17.237 16.8 km 1.3 99.0 6.1 km NNW of Kistufell
      28.06.2012 16:58:43 64.827 -17.237 15.8 km 0.9 99.0 5.3 km NNW of Kistufell
      28.06.2012 16:54:55 64.824 -17.305 21.4 km 0.6 99.0 6.6 km NW of Kistufell
      28.06.2012 16:54:13 64.821 -17.254 17.1 km 0.9 99.0 4.9 km NNW of Kistufell

  9. Henry from Avcan has just psoted this comment on the Avcan Facebook page.

    ,,On the map of seismicity of updated today, the seismicity is changing, because it is not concentrated, indicating that the pressurization advances and efforts begin to repartise,…but it has not found breaking point or weaker and are expanding efforts to failure, especially in NNW-SSE direction systems and not just to the South, also for the northern areas where also is moved, indicating the progress of the pressurization advances and is gaining strength… (Henry)…,,

    • Hi Judith, firstly I would like to congratulate you on your recognision on the post as the commentator that found the graph that helped to lead to this latest series of Blogs about El Hierro…(well that´s what I think it mean´t)..you are the most persevering person I have ever “virtually” or personally met… and in my opionion you do really deserve to have your moment of glory after all the hassle and the learning curve you have gone through..so from me personally, and publicly “BLOODY WELL DONE”!

  10. Completely overdue for some sleep.
    Good night, or whatever if your sooooo far away from my cosy mountains. 🙂

      • Sorry but I must also say goodnight too.. I am exhausted and need to go to bed…thanks to everyone commenting here for their excellent company this evening….especially to “my GeoLoco” who said I was absolutely right about something,….there´s a first …just gotta luv him don´t ya! Hope to see you all tomorrow…xx

  11. Hmmm, reading some of the comments above, do not dismiss the findings/opinions of some of the clued up on here. There are many supposed experts in many fields who are employed to be experts on that field. Many can not see the bigger picture. See economic types who are doing such a good job of predicting the global economy right now, or climate change experts who have wildly varying predictions.

  12. Can anyone point me to clear evidence that there is any vertical inflation on El Hierro?
    I know there are deformation charts here : http://www.ign.es/ign/resources/volcanologia/html/deformacionHierro.html
    but they are limited and do not cover the whole island – and what does the ‘u’ mean in the right-hand column ? What may show as inlfation in one part may mean deflation in another part. I have seen comments that there has been inflation but as far as I can tell, this is hearsay. There is only so much you can glean from charts showing lateral movement.

        • Can go to schleep but will not yet. Thanks KarenZ.
          Been away all day today (and finally read up on most posts today ) and find CHIE has certain uncertainty look about it. It has had three periods where the graph is certainly more active. This makes me uneasy of the whole South-West quadrant of El Hierro (I be there and in charge – which I am not – I would start plan to have all unneeded people prepare move away from the La Restenga area.) *not expert*

    • Looks otherworldly, like it’s own little ‘universe’. . .and wow, those 3’s look like a layer cake! Thanks KarenZ!

      • @KarenZ and @Maggiemom, I’m 99% sure that the “layer cake effect” is not ‘real’ it just that KarenZ has plotted the dots of the quakes on the nearest ’round number’ vertically. And that leaves what look like horizontal gaps through the big mass of quakes. And that’s just a n artifact of the way the plot was displayed. I’m pretty sure KarenZ explained something similar a few months ago on another similar plot.

        If you want the real ‘3D shape’ of the quake cluster you need to squint at teh plot (just enough that you can’t see the gaps between the layers).

        Hope that’s some help

  13. OK – shoot me down if you have evidence to the contrary.

    Last few days of EQs suggest (just considering basic averages) that they are getting deeper 24 – 26 June 18.7km ; 27 june 19km; 28 June 20km

    If I have it right – some Inflation is showing at FRON but is inconclusive at SABI and appears to show deflation at REST

    In the absence of any evidenc of eruption or flow, I’m suggesting that what we may be seeing is an EMPTYING of the magma chambers (not a filling) causing the quakes…… Tectonic – maybe ! The land will shift and creak as the chambers empty. No exhaustive analysis yet, as I’m just going to bed before I see anyone having a go at shooting this down. Just a hypothesis to discuss.

    OK – standing here like a target ……..
    and if it all erupts tomorrow, I’m going to join a gardening blog !

    • err… didn’t mean to say tectonic as I don’t believe it is ! What I mean is that the land may be quaking as a result of the magma deepening and retracting from the chambers – filling the voids. If this is, we may see also see further deep quakes and some nearer the surface but scattered as the land continues to settle and reducing in numbers.

    • I gather some of the updated vertical displacement data may not have been updated – some of them use ‘ultra rapid updating’ which I think means it only has a 2 day delay before the info from the sensors gets updated to the list. And some of the stations don’t have that so may not have been updated yet – so what might appear to be inconclusive uplift at SABI might just be ‘older data’.

      I’m just going on memory here I’ve not checked it out yet, but do double check the page for dates of last updated info for each GPS station before drawing any firm conclusions.

      Also the GPS spots are not I gather in the area that has the highest quakes, so if you take a sample of them it might not be indicative of the uplift or lack thereof at the earthquake swarm centre.

      Someone was asking in a previous post about ways to interpret data when you get both upward and downward motions.

      If you have a ‘solid object’ and you rest it on say the edge of the table, and then lift the bit that if over the edge everything goes upward, but if instead you lift the end that is on the table the bit that hangs over the edge goes downward. I don’t know whether that exactly can apply to magmatic uplift and if ‘solid’ sections of the crust ‘rest’ on anything, but it sort of makes sense in my mind.

      *I am not an expert*

    • yes but equally there were many at below 20 and as deep as 26km. The average shows a deepening. I can also see that if it IS a filling chamber then the upper levels are more important than the deeper ones. But hey – something to think about.

    • Jim is correct about the trend.

      However retreating magma is not going to do so with force… so, it’s not gonna break rock in order to leave.

      Keep in mind that the last time we saw the quake focus go deeper, we wound up with Bob. The quakes migrated south and then dropped deeper.

      You can see this in the purple and blue quakes on the westward looking side profile I did earlier of the full quake set.

      Where the tone of blue starts to lighten, at about 27.65 N is where they stayed for a while… then the Jacuzzi started. Purple is oldest, then blue, then light blue.

  14. 00:39:11 27.6661 -18.1049 17 3.0 mbLg SW EL PINAR.IHI
    Ht/EQ is slowing down after that one, having a breather

      • with so many unanswered questions hanging around, I started to go back to the beginning and I was hoping you would find some answers, was a bit to technical for me early this cold morning and being up most of the night with one thing and another

    • BTW… a very nice snag!

      Juicy tidbit from the paper:

      First, the Title to you you all worked up proper like…

      Evidence for distinct proportions of subducted oceanic crust and lithosphere in HIMU-type mantle beneath El Hierro and La Palma, Canary Islands

      Shallow-level crystal–liquid fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene and associated early-crystallizing minerals (e.g., spinel and HSE-rich phases) controlled compatible element and HSE abundances; there is also evidence for sub-aerial degassing of rhenium. High-MgO lavas are enriched in light rare earth elements, Nb, Ta, U, Th, and depleted in K and Pb, relative to primitive mantle abundance estimates, typical of HIMU-type oceanic island basalts. Trace element abundances and ratios are consistent with low degrees (2–6%) of partial melting of an enriched mantle source,

      From Wackipedia:

      Rhenium is a chemical element with the symbol Re and atomic number 75. It is a silvery-white, heavy, third-row transition metal in group 7 of the periodic table. With an estimated average concentration of 1 part per billion (ppb), rhenium is one of the rarest elements in the Earth’s crust.

      • Err… could one of the dragons fix that ending blockquote just after “source”

        It will be the second one… it should have a / in it.

        • I have this and several other brilliant papers from the last time round. Carl do you have this and the others in a library link somewhere? I couldn’t find links to any of them on-line, apart from the Stroncik which I posted a few days ago, and I realised a while ago that I cannot post them as ‘My Documents’ as I tried to do once before…

          As I said yesterday – things went quiet last year when quakes went above the 9km depth – after Bob emerged. I’m still not clear what the mechanism is under El Hierro but the feeling I get is that the pockets of magma and gas which lift and tip and tilt the island are under a lot of weight from the land above, and so, with any luck, can get squished sideways out along the ridge arms of the island, where the pathway to Bob allowed the steady release of gas and ash, which acted as a safety valve with the last build-up.

          Things are happening fast at the moment though, and there is a huge worry about where it is all moving towards at present. Fingers crossed a safety valve off-shore eruption will act the way that Bob has.

      • “Western Canary Island lavas were sulphur undersaturated”

        Okay, that might explain the paucity of SO2 signals.

      • Just from the abstract: the main point is that depsite being generally mafic, the petrology of “western Canary lavas provides powerful support for recycled oceanic crust and lithosphere to generate the spectrum of HIMU-type ocean island basalt signatures.” In other words, despite being a generally Hawaiian type volcano, there is also recycled ocean crust in the signature.. now to read on at the weekend to see at what depth this recycled lithosphere is coming from. I suspect it is at some depth and is not related to the crust El Hierro is sitting on.

        but first.. back to the coalface..

        • Reminiscent of Foulger’s interpretation of Iceland – exeplaining its variation in petrologies by remobilised ancient subducted material

          • I though that too, though I suspect it puts paid to your slow slip/decompressional melt hypothesis if this melt is getting generated at depth — or at least the mechanisms are working in parallel.

  15. Etnas tremor is rising again. It was at 15 last night, fell again, now it is almost back to 15. Yeah i know the paroxisms happened when it was over 150 or more. But people, please keep an eye on it for me today. ( Need to go to an all day first aid schooling session.)

    • … and thats the reason I never put an audio track in my vids.

      But I do appreciate the plot work. That’s good!

    • Probably from the same place I did…. some plot that they ran across on the Internet. It’s actually quite good work, Did you notice that at about mid point they selected a quake and the specifics popped up? Then a link to the tremor plot?

      There’s some code work in there. Whoever it is, fat ass needs to contact them and get them to do this sort of work for them. IGN could eliminate a lot of fear is they had that level of info flow to the public as an officially sanctioned product. A little refinement, and whoever put that together could make a bit of money from it.

  16. There has been a lot of discussion on the Avcan Facebook Pageabout how IGN could be changing the strengh of the earthquakes and as far as I have undersood its because if a EQ registers at over 5.0 the central goverment will then take over which the goverment of the Canaries does not want

    .,,Rosy eso es cierto, de hecho el sismo de disparo de 4.6 la mayor parte de la población decían que parecía superior…5.1 o 5.2, de hecho como bien comenta Enrique se sintió en varias islas…pero evidentemente superior a 5 pasaríamos a manos del Gobierno central y eso no les conviene…

    Rosy that is true, in fact the earthquake of 4.6 firing most of the population said it seemed top…5.1 or 5.2, in fact as well says Enrique was felt in several islands… but obviously greater than 5 we would spend at the hands of the central Government and that does not suit them… (Translated by Bing) ,,

    Henry from Avcan Comments

    De hecho, hay una anecdota bastante curiosa de la que estuvimos hablando en el FB creo, y fue que el año pasado en noviembre, cuando se dió el valor de 4.6 para el sismo de mayor magnitud en el Golfo, paso lo mismo y a posteriori hicimos calculos de que magnitud tenia con datos precisos de otra estacion, con datos en abierto, que si habian detectado claramente el sismo y el resultado de esa estación fue de un 5.45 en magnitud.. la verdad nos dejo un poco frios, pero lo cierto es que la gente lo noto en la Palma, tenerife, la gomera y gran Canaria … ahi lo dejo….. (Enrique)
    7 hours ago · Like · 22

    ,,There is indeed a story quite curious of which we were speaking on the FB I think, and it was than last year in November, when is gave the value of 4.6 for the quake of greater magnitude in the Gulf, way as well and a posteriori did calculations that magnitude had accurate data of another station, with open data, which if detected had clearly the earthquake and the result of that station was a 5.45 in magnitude… the truth left us a bit cold, but the truth is that people do notice on la Palma, tenerife, la gomera and gran Canaria… there I leave… (Henry)7 hours ago · Like · 22,,

    http://www.facebook.com Avcan


    • I’m not going to accuse them of that sort of subterfuge. Preliminary calcs by automatic gear constantly has to be looked at to ensure you aren’t getting bogus data. We see this happening in the Icelandic gear all the time. It has to do with the specifics of how the crust behaves and really, only those familiar with it can do proper sanity checks.

      If a quake breaches 5.0, no amount of fiddling with it will be able to hide it. Too many seismos will say differently.

    • A magnitude 5 quake would show up on online published seismographs in many different countries and as such be impossible to keep secret. I smell paranoia, which of course is understandable considering how the agencies handled the beginning of this seismic crisis

    • They do not fiddle the data.
      I recalc myself manually all above 4M and some between 3.5 and 4M.
      Sofar I have not seen anything pointing towards them hiding or fubbing the quake data.
      My opinion is that someone at AVCAN is doing serious miscalculations.
      The 4M was a 3.9 when I had recalced it.
      Thing with AVCAN is that many there know less about seismology and volcanoes than we do, they are not an official source of information. And should be treated as such.
      They are doing good work though to help the local people understand what is happening, and a good source for local information.

      • also many of the people stating that, are not even members of avcan, but readers who comment, Avcan members themselves have never (so far as I know) stated that IGN changes its data for any unknown mysterious reasons…

  17. Hope you all have a great day, I am off to bed now as I am seeing double. I sure hope Bob behaves, catch you tomorrow. BBGN.

  18. Good morning/evening everyone.
    ……And so we still wait!
    The quakes still seem deep, this one way down
    1152510 29/06/2012 4:03:35 27.6637 -18.1006 31 2.2 4 SW THE PINAR.IHI
    The rest appear to be still banging on the door at around 20 km.
    Right now things are very quiet. Maybe a resting period.
    Husband’s birthday today so a day of packing and shipping sales, Tai Chi class then cooking for an”impromptu” Party..You know how it is, once one lot of family say they are coming over the rest seem to follow and before you know it a quiet evening meal turns into a free for all :D…..Two large trays of Pizza, sausage rolls, assorted salads and of course Cake! (all home made. I really don’t like frozen bought in pizza) I may be late again for the Lava Quiz! 😦
    …….To start GeoLoco’s day off………… Off for a shower now….. BBL or should that be BBBBL?
    (Baaaa Baaaa Be Back Later)

  19. Look, the islanders (at least M Armas) do not seem worried to have an eruption.
    Instead he would like to have one, preferably on land (of course !) … to attract….tourists !


    No need to worry of the volcano, when you have brilliant officials like these….

    Of course with this line of thought (if I may dare !), earthquakes are just a nuisance, all that crockery rattling in the shelves…bad for business (and not good for tourism ans the “souvenirs” break 😀 )

    citation :

    A.. reconoció que la probable erupción podría darse tanto en el mar como en tierra y que si se diera este segundo caso “sería una bendición” para la Isla porque atraería a turistas

    • Blame Iceland (for once…)!

      He has just noticed that the Icelanders make a good deal on volcano tourism, he even mentioned it the last time around. Problem is that he does not understand the difference between El Hierro and Iceland size-wise.

    • Official Avcan site has a tab for choice of language translation which impresses me. Would that diarioelhierro have the same be not impressive?

  20. Update 29/06 – 07:21 UTC
    – The magma pressure seems to be calming down. This based on the number and the strength of the earthquakes since midnight. The same decrease occurred in data terms in 2011. We will show this comparison chart later in the day.
    – Thursday June 28 recorded finally 180 earthquakes
    – Since midnight today IGN has listed 30 earthquakes, which means a decrease of approx. 30% compared to the same period yesterday
    – The strongest earthquake since midnight was a M3.1 quake at a depth of 21 km at 00:25 UTC. 2 earthquakes reached M3.0 or more.
    – Even when the process slowed down a little based on the earthquakes, readers should continue looking at any fundamental change in earthquake depth and migration of earthquake epicenters….

  21. Hello Everyone!
    I am sorry about the mysteriously missing post yesterday. I got a sudden and serious case of real life.

    I have a really good, and very important post directed directly and the Residents of El Hierro. I am going to post it as fast as possible.

    It is about how to survive a volcanic eruption. It is written by our own Icelander. It is also translated into Spanish by our own Renato Rio.

    • I would like to congratulate Icelander for the great work.
      It should be published in English, as well, Carl, I suggest.
      I might send a copy to Brazilian authorities concerning how seriously natural hazards should be taken. I bet the number of casualties from floods and landslides in my country outnumber the total death toll from Icelandic volcanoes and EQs… not to mention “spontaneous collapsing buildings”. 😦

  22. Good morning!
    Another early waking here.
    They have just rescaled CHIE, right before my eyes. But this time, they raised it.
    What the heck this magma bolus is doing to us! Graboids? It seems alive!

  23. Morning all!
    For me is an Bob’s (El Hierro hot spot bulge) activity pattern we assist here:
    so if we take a look at

    we may notice that it should be an decrease in activity for today or next day.
    There are 3 let’s say ups of seismic activity in crescent maximum of about 15 days then was the leak of Bob and Bobetts…
    I don’t know how to explain this technically but for me is related to injection, magma melting, saturation in pressure than again injection…etc reset. So the key factor is pressure in some magma pocket up to a balance where the rock fractures/layers/old lava conduit cannot maintain therefore bang!…
    The eq movements goes downward now just because the lava path toward pocket is enlarging after initial melting that brings more efficiency to the already altered path.
    So for today, maybe tomorrow, a short break then a stronger pick than the one of 24,25 of June.

    • Hi criseh, do you mean seismic activity and GPS movements might actually drop off before an eruption because the lava has already found a channel to the surface and is now on the move without having to make room for itself? That is kiind of what happened last time with Bob.

      • Nope, will calm down just because the room (volume) of last days due to the eq activity increased, then the intruded magma starts to melt the chopping, therefore appear one relaxation in eq number. Then due to melting and rock transform is a pressure relaxation, then from bottom the new bigger vol starts to be filled up, that’s means moree downward eq activity, follow up a pressure increase then the magma will go (horizontal thru a weak layer or upward thru cracks, so on..
        Basically, I consider that the pressured magma volume in order to go up need some steps to get its force to climb to surface.
        Then I consider that this El Hierro volcanic mount got in inner schematic so old and therefore on short term will got its “mechanic” unchanged …simply will follow up same movement pattern like last year. Of course with gear up just because is already lubricated since 2011.
        Hope that I make myself clear, this writing activity kill me. I like to draw!!!

        • keep it up! it’s great to hear your views. when you say chopping, it sounds like you are referring to “stoping” where country rock gets fractured by the intrusion and falls into the magma body.. is this what you are referring to?.. and downward sagging of the chamber too, it sounds..

          though I think, even once the magma has made room for itself there is still an enormous amount of top pressure on it .. in fact, you touch on something I have always pondered about, that being the structural integrity of the rock surrounding a magma chamber.
          In an idealized (i.e. very simplified schoolbook) scenario, you could imagine that melt carves out a nice spherical chamber for itself and the surrounding rock acts like a solid vessel, like a steel tank. In this idealized scenario, pressure in the chamber would be a mere product of how much melt has been pushed up from below, or even, conversely, evacuated out of it at a later stage, leaving an empty vessel.
          (as an interesting aside, I think some kind of vessel type structure exists at a shallow level under Etna’s SE crater leading to the mechanics of periodic lava fountaining).
          However, I think this schoolbook scenario probably doesn’t exist in the real world very often. Erik was quite strong on emphasizing that most “chambers” are not chambers at all but regions of crystal mush where I think the surrounding rock has nothing like the structural integrity we could expect from the schoolbook view. In this case, the “chamber” is not so much a chamber as a sponge subject to the ambient pressure acting on the country rock.
          If this is correct, then there would be a number of forces acting on the magma dynamics:
          • pressure from depth conveyed by the magma intrusion
          • top pressure from the weight of the all rock above it (and sea water and, yes, the atmosphere too) pushing it
          • internal chemistry (the effects of crystallization and exsolution of gas – gas will stay in solution under high pressure but be released at low pressure, vastly increasing the volume of the magma

          /excuse the long ramble!

          • whoops something went wrong there… delete this sentence to make it more legible:

            though I think, even once the magma has made room for itself there is still an enormous amount of top pressure on it .

            it somehow got pasted into the wrong place.

    • PS Don’t forget, the first real sign of magma approaching the surface will be true and sustained harmonic tremor from degassing and magma wagging in the conduit. This will be clearly visible on the charts.

  24. Day 4, and still no eruption of El Hierro.

    Just replying to criseh’s comment. This waning activity usually comes just before a larger eruption (remember Tambora). A well known saying is “Calm before the storm”
    So i think we should be worried now.

    • Nope…It come to my mind that will be no fatal eruption from Hierro.
      On second thought I start to consider that just because it grew so fast eons ago, is weak as building edifice (too porous?). That’s why in the last thousands of years just manage to melt some weak layer down and therefore everything goes falling apart. Him….

    • Nice catch Renato. Boris once said the normal pattern after a period of repeated lava fountaining was a flank eruption (with the associated long lava flows). Is that what they are talking about?

      • They don’t openly say it, but you can “read” in between the lines that something of the kind could occur.
        Albeit the Italian FB regulars are saying that this discussion always comes about when there are changes in Etna’s behaviour.
        If you look at the EQs locations and depths you might suspect there could be a flank eruption, which, by no means, would be welcome for the populations of Zaferana Etnea and even for Boris’s dwellings.

          • I must be more exact here.
            The INGV scientist only said that “Etna has always been an active volcano”.
            But the way the whole article puts it makes you think that all the rest (the quakes, the lull) was also pointed out by the same guy, but in reality, was the author’s own take on the present swarm.
            You must be careful when making statements of the kind, and I think Boris colleague has been clever.
            It reminds me of theatre people in Rio, when they have a certain name: they go behind the stage to greet the actors and they say something like: “theatrical experience is always thrilling !” or, “how gorgeous… the costumes!”. You never know how they really felt about the acting.

  25. Morning all! Tiny drop at HEK – nothing to worry about, I think. Just saying this for the record! The British Summer has returned to it’s usual constant drizzle. What makes it more annoying is that it has been raining non-stop since 6.30 (5.30 blog time) and the weather forecast is for light showers, mainly in the north. Grrr! 😀

  26. Good morning all
    Recovered from my ramblings last night. Let’s see what happens over the next day or two !

    EQ averages for last few days
    26 June Depth 18.7km mag 2.3
    27 June Depth 19 km mag 2.3
    28 June Depth 20 km mag 2.3
    so far today 29 June Depth 21.5 km mag 1.8

    Must do some work now ! Catch up later…

  27. The new magma that has caused the high level of earthquakes has most likely broken through into the old feeder channel of Bob, and magma is most likely moving freely upwards as I am writing this according to information I have received.
    The lessening amount of Earthquakes and changes in tremor behaviour, together with the halted uplift figures support this.
    An eruption is likely to occur within the next 72 hours.
    Most likely point of eruption is upstream (closer to land) from the vents of Bob.
    A contact within IGN affirmed changes in the pattern.

  28. New viewer record:
    12 441 for yesterday, 1 120 during the busiest hour.
    The reason I am mentioning this is both that it is fun that our little comunity is active and vibrant, but also as a way to make people “out there” listen. There is after all Power in numbers.

    • I am not at all surprised at the viewer figures. This is a wonderfully friendly place but with some very educated people giving us so much information and their own personal views making that information lively and informative. Thank you so very much to the founders of this blog for setting it up. What a wonderful job you have done in educating so many of us in the wonderful world of volcanoes. Very many thanks to all the contributors.

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