Ruminarian IV – You asked for it.

CAVEAT: I am not a Geologist, Seismologist, Ornithologist, Hematologist, Banker (I have a soul), Congressman (I knew my parents), Auto Mechanic (well, professionally I’m not) or formally trained in any of this. I am an amateur, just like you. In other words, take it with a grain of salt, I can be wrong.

This sort of falls in with my previous “It’s a Gas” post from August 14th of LAST year (Originally “this” year, but the Mayan Doom thing came and went and went before this post made it out… it is 2012 that it refers to.)

The other day, I was a bit stoked by finally locating an SO2 dataset for the southern hemisphere. I knew it was out there, many times data from that have been mentioned in various papers. The data set is from the Taylor Dome, located at latitude 77.66°S. GISP, the source for the Northern data set is at around 65°N. Plotted together (with the Taylor Dome set inverted so that each can be clearly seen), you get a reasonably decent look at SO2 for both hemispheres.

Note that both of these plots are for Total SO2, and not just Volcanic SO2. All we are interested in are the peaks/spikes. (Likely volcanic in origin).

Interesting things in the plot:

52.9 BC shows a sizable spike in the Northern plot. According to GVP, Apoyeque in Nicaragua went up around this time with a VEI-6, so it’s a candidate (± 100 years).

78.2 AD could be Vesuvius, there is enough slop in the resolution to where it could be a fit with the 79 AD (historical record) eruption that killed Pliny the Elder (and gave us the archetype for a Plinian Eruption based on the writings of Pliny the Younger). An additional candidate (or co-emitter) could be Furnas in Portugal (80 AD ± 100 years) Both of them are listed as (or likely) VEI-5.

640.1 AD may be Shiveluch. GVP places an event there at 650 AD ± 40 years.

1612 BC is quite interesting. There is a monster spike in the Southern Hemisphere, and smaller one in the Northern hemisphere. GVP places the Santorini VEI-7 in this time frame, but logic says that it should have had the greatest effect in the northern hemisphere… so what happened about this time in the south? Fuego (Guatemala), Chacana (Ecuador), and Taapaca (Chile) all erupted with unknown VEI around 1580 BC, (± 75, 10, 75 years respectively), so any or all of them could be a candidate.

Since we are now in the southern hemisphere, that topic that came up when I posted the original plot: “Where is Taupo?” To put it simply… it ain’t there. Taupo went big in 230 AD at VEI-6. Yet not a blip. It also had a large event in 1460 BC (± 40 years), again.. nothing in the SO2 record to speak of.

dfm noted that the Taylor Dome series may be stunted in what it can record due to the “roaring 40s.”

For those of you that don’t know… 40°S latitude is notorious for it’s storms and high winds… it’s fairly persistent feature of that latitude. There is almost no land along that latitude… maybe 1100 km total out of 30,384 km of latitudinal track. It’s also right at the boundary of the Southern Hadley Cell and the Southern Mid-Latitude Cell.

At the surface, stuff north of the boundary tends to flow north, stuff south tends to flow south. That is, unless you shove the plume up towards the stratosphere where the flows reverse… and then if it gets to the stratosphere, well, things are different there. The stratosphere is above something called the “Tropopause.” The Tropopause is the very top of the troposphere. All weather that we encounter… Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, Derechos, Typhoons, Monsoons, Lightning, Gales, Gusts, Waterspouts, Snow, Sleet, Rain, Hail… are products of the troposphere. The stratosphere is above that. It’s called the stratosphere due to it being layered… layered in temperature. The reason it is layered, is that not a lot goes on there. Well, not a lot of mixing, at least as compared to the one below it. Yet stuff still goes on there. This is the region where SO2 in a volcanic column is converted to Sulfate and can operate as a screen, reflecting sunlight.

You can see the boundary region in an averaged tropopause height plot. The red region around the equator are the two Hadley cells straddling the equator. Just north and south of these two regions are the mid-latitude cells that run to about 50°N and 50°S. Beyond there and you are into the Polar cells.

So… did Taupo produce an SO2 signal but both GISP and Taylor Dome ice miss it?

In Bolivia, there is a “extinct” stratovolcano called Nevado Sajama. GVP doesn’t have a listing for it, so that implies that it has had no Holocene activity. Davidson et al (1995) places the Nazca Plate Benioff Zone at between 150 to 175 km under the volcano, so it is likely that it is outside (barely) the region that produces magma for arc volcanism. However, that paper also lists Sajama as a Holocene volcano. Some of the ejecta from it overlies 2.2 mya material. So its last activity is at least younger than that. But the thing about Sajama that we care about, is that it has glaciers.

From the Sajama Ice Core descriptor:

In June-July 1997, two ice cores to bedrock were recovered from the summit of the extinct Sajama volcano, Bolivia (18°S, 69°W, elevation 6540 m) and were subsequently transported back in a frozen state to the cold room facility at the Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC).

This record goes back to about 23000 BC. It only has 100 year resolution, but it at least gives us a peek at something inside the Southern Hadley cell.

An important note: This is Sulfate, not SO2. Sulfate is the end product after SO2 is converted through interaction with water and radicals.

But we are still left with the question of where is the Taupo SO2 signal? The best bet? There isn’t one.

In a previous post on the topic of the TVZ, we found that Taupo’s last eruption showed almost no zonation. Zonation is where different levels of the magma chamber have chemical signatures representative of the crystal formation process that was present at the time of the eruption. As the eruption progresses, different groups of signatures come out as the point source of the eruption gets to them. With no zonation, the likely reason is that that chamber was well mixed and highly dynamic. Convective currents were keeping everything stirred up really well and the chamber was very homogenous. It doesn’t explain the lack of SO2, but it may lend a clue. (something for you and I to ponder)

Is it possible that since Taupo is under a lake, that the SO2 was leached out early in the eruption by the large quantity of water?

Havre Seamount in the Kermadec Islands of New Zealand erupted (significantly) in July of this year… here is the Aura OMI Level 3 SO2 vertical column for that period. (May through August in order to make sure we caught it)

Hmm… nada. Up north around Vanuatu there are emissions, but nothing in the Havre Seamount area. It doesn’t prove the point, but it supports the idea of the SO2 being leached early.

Now we move on to 1258. It shows up on the GISP data set, but not in the Taylor Dome set. It also seems to be missing from the Sajama core, but as noted, it has a 100 year resolution and could still miss it. No matter how you slice it, there is still that glaring item about it showing up in the North Hemisphere, but not the South. If it were an equatorial event, one would expect a coincidental signal in both sets…. weather permitting. Zooming in on that year, sure enough, there is a signal in both sets.

But the northern signal is 6.4 times the size of the southern one. Whoever comes up with the source for the 1258 SO2 spike is going to have to address that. If not, it will be a rather large monkey wrench to deal with .

And now for something completely different. (maybe…)

Ever hear of e-folding? How about continuous interest compounding on a banking instrument? They are related. E-folding comes to us from the world of atomic physics. Continuous interest compounding comes to us from … banks. Both have to do with how you figure out how much “stuff” you have after a certain amount of time.

The top equation would be used to find out how much “stuff” you would have left in a half life equation with a given decay rate of “r” time. “t” is the amount of elapsed time.

The bottom equation does the same thing, but instead of the rate to wind up with “half”, it’s the rate to wind up with 1/e. “e” being a natural logarithm. (about 2.718281828)

The only reason I bring it up, is because Bluth et al (1997) did in their paper “Stratospheric Loading of Sulfur from Explosive Volcanic Eruptions” They come up with the conclusion, that SO2 blown into the atmosphere, is converted to sulfate at an e-folding rate of 35 days. That means that after 35 days, 1/e of the material will be left. (about 36.7%). Sulfate, on the other hand, shows an e-folding rate of about 12 months for the really prolific SO2 eruptions, and 6 months for the more moderate emitting eruptions. In both cases, wintertime sulfate removal rates are slowed down by about 20%.

Not having a handy eruption to run the equations on… let’s go back to my fictitious Mt Gibbons. For the sake of argument, Mt Gibbons erupted 1.0 Mt of SO2. Here is how it would play out according to Bluth et al.

What this plot does, is to apply the SO2 conversion and the Sulfate removal rates simultaneously (well, as close as I can get) to the eruption… which for the model, is assumed to be one large ejection of the SO2. As you can see, peak loading occurs about 2 to 3 months after the eruption.

Where the model fails, is when the SO2 is emitted over time, as in a series of SO2 emissions. Keep that in mind as you ponder how this works.

Okay.. that’s the show. Hopefully you weren’t bored by the post.



OT side note for the true purveyors of arcane bits of knowledge.

Refer back to the Tropopause graphic. Notice anything interesting about it? Hint: Earth’s aphelion is in the first week of July. Thats the furthest point of our orbit. Perihelion, or the closest we get to the Sun is in the first week of January.

Now notice the tropopause heights at each time of the year. In January, the equatorial regions swell quite a bit, and then this flattens towards the poles in mid-year, around July. At that point, the poles are more inflated than during perihelion.

Essentially, the orbit of the Earth drives an oscillation in the atmospheric thickness.

No reason to note it other than it’s quite cool to see it plotted out.

Stratospheric Loading of Sulfur from Explosive Volcanic Eruptions” Bluth et al (1997)

Click to access BluthJG.pdf

Late Cenozoic magmatism of the Bolivian Altiplano” Davidson et al (1995)

Sajama Ice Core Data


53 thoughts on “Ruminarian IV – You asked for it.

  1. Hi GeoLurking !
    My very best wishes for the new year.
    Your (very nice) article raises quite a few questions (but gives some clues too).
    As for Taupo, my hypothesis with the roaring forties stemmed from the Vendée Globe sailing race (which is taking place right now) where the ships sail around the antartic continent. So a lot of water there and nearly no land but a lot of wind (and bad weather meaning some rain…). But I think your SO2 chart referring to Havre Seamount is probably part of the explanation for Taupo. SO2 is really very soluble in water so any submarine or under water emission will be strongly affected. To give an example, @20°C, H2S has a 4 g/kg (or liter) solubility, for SO2, it’s….120g ! CO2 is only 1.7 g or so…

    As for Bob’s recent evolution, well let’s see what happens, there seems to be some upward moves. I have not done a new plot because there were “only” 20 or so quakes yesterday, but the quakes semm to get a bit deeper.

    • The roaring 40s could certainly have a lot to do with Taupo. That and the fact that the eruptive material was really low in SO2. Re the interaction of water, here’s Walker and Wilson on the various units of the Hatepe eruption:
      “Minor initial phreatomagmatic activity was followed by the dry vent 6 km$^{3}$ Hatepe plinian outburst. Large amounts of water then entered the vent during the 2.5 km$^{3}$ Hatepe phreatoplinian ash phase, eventually stopping the eruption, though large amounts of water continued to be ejected from the vent area, causing gullying of the ash deposits. After a break of several hours to weeks, phreatoplinian activity resumed, generating the 1.3 km$^{3}$ Rotongaio ash, notable for its fine grainsize and for containing significant quantities of non- or poorly-vesicular juvenile material. The vent area then became dry again, and eruption rates and power markedly increased into the 23 km$^{3}$ Taupo `ultraplinian’ phase, which is the most powerful plinian outburst yet documented. Synchronous with this ultraplinian activity, lesser volumes of non- to partially-welded ignimbrite were generated by diversion of ejecta from, or partial collapse of, the eruption column. The rapid rate of magma withdrawal during this phase removed support from the vent area, to trigger local vent collapse and initiate the catastrophic eruption of the ca. 30 km$^{3}$ Taupo ignimbrite.”

      In other words the ultraplinian burst that punched well into the stratosphere was a dry event. Otherwise, I like the idea of water leaching out the SO2. Considering that the chamber was shallow and pretty well mixed, it is possible that any SO2 present had already exsolved and exited the system in the first phreatic phases of the eruption before the ultraplinian phase kicked in. This might help to explain the absence of a signal too.

      But first a more mundane question: do mafic magmas have much higher SO2 levels than felsic magmas? There seems to be an inverse relationship between SO2 output and the amount of silica involved. Is this actually the case?

  2. 1st pertinent question – Why are the two data sets so different and why don’t eruptions that really should show up in the records do so?

    2nd pertinent question – Where are the data collection points located?

    3rd pertinent question – How do the two hemispheres differ and how does that affect atmospheric circulation?

    I have this sneaking suspicion that as a result of PQ 3, the only eruptions that show up in Antarctic ice cores are Antarctic ones and possibly some Chilean ones. Could be terribly wrong of course!

    • Dye-3: 65°N 43°W (Gisp) (upper trace in the plot)

      Lake Vostok: 77°30′S 106°00′E (stuck this here just because I ran across it)

      Taylor Dome: 77°40′S 157°40′E (lower trace in the plot)

      Sajama volcano, Bolivia 18°S, 69°W

    • Ref #3. There is a difference. I have no idea how it plays into it, but if you take a look at the tropo elevation plot, you will see a “lump” that happens in the Southern Polar cell around August every year. While the Northern Hemisphere Polar cell also has a higher elevation at this time… it doesn’t get anywhere near as pronounced as what the southern one does.

      Other things that are going on… the QBO. “Quasi-biennial oscillation.” It’s an observed and measured variation in the stratospheric zonal flow. (at what elevation things flow west as opposed to east.)

      I still have a lot of digging to do on that one.

      • Here you are:

        “The Ferrel cell, theorized by William Ferrel (1817-1891), is a secondary circulation feature, dependent for its existence upon the Hadley cell and the Polar cell. It behaves much as an atmospheric ball bearing between the Hadley cell and the Polar cell, and comes about as a result of the eddy circulations (the high and low pressure areas) of the mid-latitudes. For this reason it is sometimes known as the “zone of mixing.” At its southern extent (in the Northern hemisphere), it overrides the Hadley cell, and at its northern extent, it overrides the Polar cell.”

        In the Northern hemisphere, the Ferrel cell (lat 30 to 60 degrees) lies mainly over land whereas in the Southern hemisphere, it’s over water. Land doesn’t hold heat which means that in the Northern hemisphere it’s the atmosphere and you get Arctic cold sweeping in from the North, Siberian or Alaskan depending on continent. In the Southern hemisphere, the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans form a much more efficient barrier against such atmospheric exchange.

        This I guess is the main reason the two sets are so vastly different. The geographic location of the sampling points (+65 against -77 degrees) only serves to exacerbate the discrepancies.

        • My guess is you are probably correct.

          When Puyehe erupted… the ash cloud took off for Australia with little north-south deviation once it got started moving.

  3. Very interesting post. Thank you, GeoLurking. 🙂

    I just don’t get what knowing or not knowing one’s parents shall have to do with one’s work quality or person – generally speaking, I know nothing about the special congressman you seem to be refering to. ❓

  4. Great post again.
    Anyone red this article?
    The Taupo Eruption, New Zealand I. General Aspects C. J. N. Wilson and G. P. L. Walker

    It speaks of hughe amounts of water (2km3) ejected from the vent area between the initial ash eruptions and the later utraplinian eruption. This shows because of widespread erosion between the layers. This is not counting water ejected during the eruptions them selves. So all and all a water rich happening, Maybe this casued relatively low so2 emmisions.

  5. “Okay.. that’s the show. Hopefully you weren’t bored by the post.”
    Boring? Sir Lurking, you have a strange concept of boring. Your posts are some of the most exciting stuff on the internet!!

    • Seconded. This post is “brain food” of very highest quality, and exactly the sort of thing that keeps me coming back to VC to read every day. I have a feeling, also, that Oliver is onto something with his conjecture that Antarctic cores show very little other than Antarctic & southern Chilean events.

  6. Writing on my mobile now because our new internet provider decided not to stirr into motion to connect us before the previous one cut us off. This could last until holiday weeks are over…I feel so mutilated 😦

    Gives me time to read A BOOK, this ancient thing written on paper.

    Interesting rumination, will look up SO2 in my xmas present Encyclopedia of volcanoes, by H. Sigurdsson (great read, really!).

  7. First time checking out Volcanocafe this year – A Happy New Year to all.
    I see my favourite – Bob, has stirred into action again and in a new area too. Reading the previous post and the question why El Hierro attracts so much attention – I second others’ sentiments in that it is special to me too – it has so much to analyse, despite nothing much ever happening. It is a good place to learn the mechanics of volcanism…. and it’s close to home (UK) which adds further interest. I echo Newby’s comment regarding Surtsey which I also remember fascinating me as a boy, introducing me to the amazing power usually hidden beneath the cust of this earth.

    • Hi Jim
      Best wishes also to you.
      You’re right about the location. The canary islands are relatively easy to get to (even if El Hierro is probably one of the less easy to get to with La Gomera and La Palma). Plus there’s the possible bonus of the possibility of a Sursteyan eruption one day.

    • Hello, still a healthy new year to everybody 🙂

      Also for me El Hierro is something special(particular).
      It was he which has led me in this forum.

      And by him I learnt to understand the first one sometimes how volcanoes tick. Yes by him I learnt to love the volcanoes.

      However, above all these were the quiet and clever comments of Carl which my interest in the volcanoes woke up.

      I miss him … 😦

      • Hi georgiade, happy and healthy new year wishes to you too. I have to say I totally agree with you – El Hierro led me to here and Carl sparked off my interest in how volcanos work..I miss him too…not only for his clever and interesting comments, but also for his sense of humour, and the “off the cuff” comments that sometimes shocked me but always were so true….I just hope he will come back “home” soon….

      • Hi Georgiade & DebbieZ –
        I would like to second everything you said. I check this blog at least two times a day, and I must admit that the first place I always look is the “Recent Comments” column to see if Carl’s name appears there. It seems so sad that he founded this wonderful community and now he is not here to enjoy and animate it! 😦 Hopefully he will return soon to what I believe he fondly called his Zen playground! :mrgreen:

  8. Great Post, Lurk, I have a question- Say a bad boy like one of the Kamchatkan Ganstas,
    decides to make a mess- you are saying that the time of year is important as to the amount
    of SO2 that gets into the Stratosphere.? Due to the thickness of the Tropopause?
    Thanks in advance. -I think I know the answer, but I want some opinions…

    • Yes… but not by much. It’s about 20% longer for the precipitate to glom together and sediment out. And this is only for whatever hemisphere happens to be in winter.

      Where this becomes sort of important is after the big eruptions, but I can’t say how much of an impact it will have on the effects from it. There is always a background sulfate layer, with or without volcanic eruptions.

      Other things contribute to keeping that background level there.

  9. Evening

    Here is the update on El Hierro earthquakes up to the sole earthquake for Jan 3rd (around 9.8 km depth).

    There are small changes on the video.

    The color of the “old” earthquakes (prior to Dec 31st 2012) are now shown in cyan, I hope to get a better view. I tried black but it was too dark -:) and the new earthquakes did not show as well, and green seemed a bit too light.

    I have added some text to identify the Moho interface (at around 15 km, this is not a correlation).

    Also in the second part of the video, the date is shown on the colorbar instead of the number of days since the beginning of the plot.

    Otherwise, each “new” earthquake is first shown as a big red dot, then as a blue dot with size according to magnitude (see scale on the side with pink color).

    In the first part the color bar shows the island elevation.

    In the following parts the color of the dots is according to date.

    There seems to be deeper earthquakes locations on Jan 1st and 2nd than on the previous day.
    Also the epicenters seem to be more to the north and east than the earthquakes of the 31rst (in deep blue).

    For the sole Jan 3rd earthquake (up to 20h45 UTC), the depth is set at 9.8 km and the quality of signal is good (root means square error is less than 0.3), so this depth seems to be quite reliable. However, as it is alone, we cannot know if it is related to the new swarm as it is not in the same zone and at a different average depth.

    In conclusion I would say it looks to me like a new small magma intrusion, as the earthquake density was quite low in this zone previously.

    • Small intrusion or stretching the edges under a tough layer. The last days there was also an uplift if I remember well. Let’s wait and see if that is ongoing the next days. IF so, we might see some stronger EQs in the next days snapping the perimeters at the moment..

    • Would someone care to comment on the relevance or significance of the moho when looking at these EQ depth plots?

      In addition to the posited compositional change at the moho is there a thermal or physical discontinuity? Do EQ’s above the moho indicate more energy–fracturing of harder more brittle rock than that below the moho?

      Apologies if that is a naive/stupid question.

      • The first thing to note, is that the Moho layer in this plot is a rough estimation. It actually forms a keel of sorts, and drops down to around 17-18 km beneath the island. The quakes, for the most part, are above this.

        Directly above the Moho is the oceanic crust. Then a layer of Jurassic era sediment lies above that. The pressure isn’t really high enough to form schist, but it is high enough to make phyllite. Phylitte is a foliated mineral that is probably derived form the mudstone→shale→slate of the ancient basin.

        Above the Jurassic era sediment is modern era sediment that was laid down after the region became part of the sea.

        On top of that is the volcanic breccia and flows that make up the island.

        The quake swarms are likely indicative of magma flow into and through the different strata.

        Sill and Dike stuctures. (Plutons)

        If you are up for it.. math wise, look for hoop-stress and how much force it takes to pop through it, and you will probably get close to what the magma pressures are down there.

  10. Watching El Hierro. Watching Iceland. Lurking your ruminations lead to more ruminatons! I certianly agree that “The Roaring Forties” would have an effect on the dispersal of SO2. Also I think it important to remember that the jet streams do tend to meander. They change course altering weather considerably and so also the global transportation of volcanic emissions

  11. I whish a Happy New (Volcano) Year, to All.
    – A small Off Topic, do not know if this has been discussed here in the last few days,
    “No ticking timebomb” in Icelandic volcanoes – we know so – right? Hello Laki!
    Do not know if any here know of two PBS shows aired yesterday night, one on doomsday volcanoes in Iceland, the other one a little less “doom”. “There is none” (timebomb) says Prof. Páll Einarssson in this interview, “but Hekla continues to expand, leading to eruption, Katla is still restless”.. etc. – my translation – further online-translator needed for full article.
    Professor Páll is an expert. Better listen when he speaks out (?)
    – Maybe this sums up the Volcanic situation here – Nothing special is going on – nevertheless “DV”, Völvuspá, in printed paper edition 28.12.2012, Page 4, has “forecest” no fewer than three eruptions in next year, in Iceland, 2013 : One small at/near Askja, north of Vatnajökull, in late spring, one (or only a half) in Mýrdalsjökull in early summer, with large mudflow into Markarfljót that damages the new harbour at Landeyjahöfn – possibly coming from north of Emstrur? It does not say. This I have waited for since forecast last year, by another “Valva”, so kind of re-used, and finaly an “Plinian” large one in …. Öræfajökull, in late summer / autum this yearm that lasts a long time, into winter. Wise to sell off Airliner stocks it this goes as “predicted”, if trading across the Atlantic…. Ok. An Explanation: “Valva” is a (Lady) person that look in her magic crystal ball, but often taken quite seriously here, many of them are printed in late year or early year editions. I totally belive in all they said (not)… of sorts. The weather forcast is more accurate each day.

    • It is a ridicule forecast. First, I agree with the possibility of an eruption in both Askja and Katla, but not necessarily this year. But Oraefajokull? Why? The volcano has been long sleeping, no signs of unrest, why they forecast that? Unless they know of something we don’t know, they are probably behaving like psychic kids.

      Concerning a “ticking time bomb”. No! Iceland is not like that. That title is a typical sensationalism journalism type. Yes, Laki-sized eruptions do happen roughly every 300 to 1000 years. But most eruptions in Iceland are smaller than Eyjafjallajokull or Grimsvotn. Ocasionnally there is a large Hekla or Katla eruption, but most often there are only small sized fissure eruptions.

    • Yes, I saw the show. The first one was overly dramatic, and if I was to believe the hype, I would think that all volcanoes are “doomsday machines”… Overall I thought it was pretty misleading.

      However, I was happy to see the footage of the eruptions, was surprised that I could recognize some places I have never been to, and see people I hear about, like “Sigrun”. She doesn’t know, but she has “fans” on the Net.

  12. Here in Iceland it rains, rains, rains, rains…. non-stop, it has been like this for the past weeks.

    I still haven’t see real snow here in south Iceland this winter. Perhaps 2 or 3 snowy days, not more. And I though I was living in Iceland. It has been a winter without snow, without cold, without northern lights!

    Yes, even that. No northern lights. But that is because of the very weak solar maximum (I dont even want to call it that way). And a winter of a truly non-polar winter. Where is the cold?

      • @ Irpsit
        Just the weather we’ve had since May! 2nd wettest year on record, zero soil moisture deficit and aquifers just about at their maximum. Some boreholes/aquifers have gone artesian and springs appearing from nowhere! (yet still the planners/developers want to build on flood plains……..)!

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