The rifting which was discussed in the last posts is still happening in Iceland but the quakes seem to have tranquilized a little bit.
Still lots more earthquakes as on a regular day in Iceland in the last few months…
El Hierro seems to go dormant at the moment too. There were earthquakes in the region today but not on the places we watched around El Hierro. So most likely normal tectonic earthquakes.
And the run-up time for Etna next ( maybe) paroxysm is probably at least another week.
As for the run-up for Hekla. This is the very best image i have seen so far from the 2013 (possible) eruption:
Drawing by Icelander
The Hekla strain meter is still dropping
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/hekla/thensla_hekla.html
But this does not show on all the other Hekla stations:
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/hekla/
And the alert level was lowered: http://almannavarnir.is/displayer.asp?cat_id=8&module_id=220&element_id=3019 (Thanks IngeB)
So what to report.
The alert level on several volcanoes in Indonesia was raised.
Difficult to get information on this. There was an earthquake Mag. 7 in Indonesia today. http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/event.php?id=gfz2013gryc
The riddle pages were updated.
Spica
VolcanoCafé 
Thank you Spica. Interesting to note that in that last picture of Hekla’s activities the bombs dropping were white. Ice bombs? Or more exciting Iceland’s versions of Restingolites. 😀 😀 😀
I am totally innocent of that Hekla eruption pic, not done by me!
*ok, I am “islander” but his done by “Icelander” so must be some other bloke.
With all due respect that image was mine. So if CNN needs it they need to ask me first. 😉
Thanks for the post Spica, Interesting to see that Hekla strain is still dropping but no other signs of unrest. Well I am the latest to be eliminated from the Hekla Eruption Sweepstake as my time ran out at 7:00am today.
Not even looking very likely that the next two on the list for the 9th will guess correctly now either.
Cowboy Andre April 9th 1pm to 5pm
El Nathan April 9th late afternoon
Oh yeah, predicting a volcano is a very wild guess.
I (and most of us) did it, based on the fact that most Hekla eruptions (and they are not that many to be a significant relationship) occur in late winter to mid spring months.
So spring goes April and May. The timeframe most likely for Hekla. My bet is already gone. But someone could pick it right.
But even predicting the next volcano to go off (in Iceland) is a tricky business. We could say Hekla, Askja or Katla. But what if Krisuvik, Kverfjoll, Hamarinn or a submarine volcano at Tjornes surprise us?
The volcano world is full of surprises.
Hekla strain looks really jittery!
And here is some information on Indonesian volcanoes:
Status of 142 volcanoes with some additional information. As a nice treat the list can be exported to Excel: http://geospasial.bnpb.go.id/pantauanbencana/data/datagunungapi.php
And ash information: http://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Klimatologi/Informasi_Gunung_Api.bmkg
I didn´t find anything special about activity of Tambora on these websites.
This site seems more up to date:
http://pvmbg.bgl.esdm.go.id/1-2.php
Thanks for the link Chryphia, on this I have also found the back webcams
http://pvmbg.bgl.esdm.go.id/1-3b.php
So when this Hekla strain build up is big enough, bigger than the bedrock can bear with, things could goes bang then?
Hekla is essentially, a large rift cone. So large that is has characteristics of a stratovolcano. When one side’s strain massively operates the opposite of the other side, it can cleave open.
Hekla tends to be eerily quiet with the quakes. Most volcanoes give you a heads up with quakes, Hekla tends to “sneak it out”. In fact, for Hekla’s last eruption, the quake swarm started about 61 minutes prior to it popping the cork. Even with that, the quakes were not humanly detectable (in other words, with no equipment) until about 15 minutes before full on eruption. This hazard is one reason Hekla is not safe to hike on right now. You get virtually no warning if you are just standing around on the top of it. By the time you feel the quakes, you probably wouldn’t get very far before it went off.
Partially related.
If you run across a table in a pdf document, you can highlight the table and data and with a right click, occasionally have the option to export the table to a spreadsheet.
I’ve used this many times when they send me my inventory data in pdf instead of spreadsheet format. It doesn’t work on all pdfs, but it does work on many of them. Even a few geology and volcano related ones.
(file under “stupid data mining tricks”)
…not so stupid trick, the power of the right click 🙂
This is what separates craftsmen from bumbling amateurs… 🙂
When I say bumbling amateurs; I mean me…
Its Sunday. I’m doing something that I haven’t done in a while… watching a NASCAR race. (go fast, turn left)
One of the entertaining aspect of it, is listening to the commentators. They can be… puzzling in the choice of words that they use. “Delta,” (δ) as in the ‘amount of change’ is not something you ordinarily hear in a non math setting, yet one of them used it when referring to the handling of the cars. It was proper usage, but I’m not sure that many of the viewing audience picked up on it. We are, after all, supposed to be knuckle dragging cretins if you listen to the stereotypes that are used by the MSM.
completely OT I stumbled upon this
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2013/04/05/arts/design/20130405-CIVIL-7.html
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2013/04/05/arts/design/20130405-CIVIL-9.html
2 serious bunches of serious guys? i’m amazed at the handmade sabers/swords
Hi Dfm,
following on from your link re rockfall seismogram signals; I noticed this:
http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesDiasAnterioresHora.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2013-04-07_01-02&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2013&Mes=04&Dia=07&tipo=1&hora=01-02
http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesDiasAnterioresHora.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2013-04-07_01-02&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2013&Mes=04&Dia=07&tipo=2&hora=01-02
Just after 9 minutes on the charts…
Hi – if the pic is true – but could be
just look at the size of the stones. It is probably (we hope) not so quite common on El Hierro (just like Eh Honey I just found a 3 tons rockie in tha garden we got a new picknik table !). I understand more now the Ign concern about rockfall..
to schteve. Yes I think we found the Raymond’z Lost signal. All those small events not noticed (or covered by) IGn are ….rockfalls. which must be quite a few
look around 1’25
I certainly think we would find a lot of these in the seismogram archives, with the shaking that’s been going on since July 2011 and the steep inclines, I would guess there’s been a goodly number of these…
Just found something from you in the VC trash, is that where you want it?
the plot is not that bad…
Shall I rescue it?
No I got it wrong (sorry) this is the corrected version. Trimmed And over Mag 3 and until yesterday. I think we’re not done yet.
I have played around with eliminating the smaller quakes, I think there is some value in this approach. I think it MAY (imhao) give a clearer view of magma movements… When you think of the difference in (normal faulting) displacement between a 1mblg and a 4mblg quake this makes sense…
The larger eqs appear to be in the periphery of the swarm – reflecting a gradient in ductility, due to the thermal gradient away from the stack?
A commentor on AVCAN’s FB page linked to this article: http://www.cuartopoder.es/mecanicamente/el-hierro-vive-una-oleada-sismica-mayor-que-la-que-antecedio-al-volcan/2945
Non-Spanish readers will have to used Bing / Google to translate. 😉
Also a TV programme: Monday, 08/04 at 13:30 at the Odyssey channel (83, Imagenio), special volcanoes documentary: “The bowels of the volcano”. http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/la-noche-tematica/noche-tematica-volcanes-mas-mortiferos/1751567/.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Actualidad-Volc%C3%A1nica-de-Canarias-AVCAN/163883668446 under “029 NOTA ESPECIAL DE SEGUIMIENTO DEL PROCESO SISMO-VOLCÁNICO DE LA ISLA DE EL HIERRO (07/04/2013 – 21:30 Kuwait, 19:30 Canarias, 18:30h UTC)”
Thanks Karenz,
That taxed my newspaper level spanish, but an interesting article… Nemesio Perez had nothing very definate to say as usual, but the other interviewees were more enlightening…
Repost from the TFZ-Thread: (thanks schteve42)
Hi GeoLurking, tgmccoy, Peter, KarenZ, Diane and inannamoon667
Thanks for all your Advice, I think that you really helped me to clear my mind. I was able to get in touch with the agency which was helping me with the booking of the Cambridge Course in Vancouver. First of all, the option of part time studying wouldn’t have worked, because I’m from Switzerland. Now I’ve had three days to think about your recommendations and the advice from my friends and family. I really would have loved to study english in Vancouver, but the Job is simply to good. Tommorrow I’ll tell my new employer that I’ll cancel the booking for the english course because I would love to work with and for them. It really is a dreamjob in a great local advertising agency with great clients and an awesome team. There is a lot i can learn from all of them and in the end, I can allways study english later or go to an evening course in a local language center. So in a few hours, a new phase in my life beginns and with some time passed, I think I’ll not regret that decission.
And just for info, I’ll only have to pay some administrative fees (~200-400 Dollars ) and not the whole costs of the course.
So again, thank you all for your help in those difficult few hours in my life.
Best whishes from Switzerland
Stefan
You’re most welcome, and all the very best of luck 🙂
Cool. I love it when things work out. 😀
Congratulations for getting the new job. You should be able to find a good English course in Switzerland.
Glad to help my Gr.Gr. Grandfather was from a little village near Zurich. Ended up in
West Virginia, married one of Native American ancestors. Always wanted to see Switzerland…
Hopefully it was peaceable.
Dunno how far back it was, but I had an ancestor with a wife and a mistress. The offspring of that arrangement never did get along. The family actually had a feud with itself which eventually led to a self imposed diaspora throughout the county for safety reasons.
Now that is a lovely word I haven’t read for ages. The last time was many, many years when I was reading up on history of the Middle East areas and came across information about the diaspora of the Jews. I do love words and especially the etymology of them. In fact the English language is so fascinating just because of the multitude of words from so many different languages.
Lurk it ws peaceable enough for eight children 😉
They all lived an produced progeny…
which was uncommon in those days..
Stefan. Congratulations. My Son, Rob, has just gone freelance Copywriter. This after a long and upward climb in the advertising industry. He now earns figures I could only dream about. If you wish to know more I would happily give you links to his career to date. This just so that you know where you can go. Rob was never “Academic” I think he inherited my anti- math gene. 😀 Despite lack of high “academic” qualifications ,what he does have is self motivation, some no mean artistic talent and a quick wit.
After a rather unorthodox route he did gain the highest degree grade in Advertising but it is his personality and abilities that got him the jobs. His ambition was to work for Saatchi. After years they actually head hunted him. His accounts included Porsche……and the bonus was he had to drive the cars before he could write about them 😀 😀 Another was UNICEF and he was sent to Africa to take photos and again create ads. So you are about to embark on a career in which the only boundaries are created by yourself.
All the very best for the future and well done. XXXXXX
Hi Diana
Thank you for all the lovely words and your great advice, I really apprechiate it and I’m very glad that there are so many great people like yourself, GeoLurking, Peter, and many more in the Volcanocafe. For now I think everything has worked out fine for me (from a job-perspective), even if there were a few hard weeks I had to go through (grammar?)
Thanks to all of you I can now again focus my energy on beeing creative in my job and enjoying reading about all the volcanic burps and bobs in the world. 🙂
Best Whishes to all Volcanophiles 🙂
And if Volcanocafe ever needs any advertising; we know who to ask first 😀
Not often I comment on stuff apart from Friday riddles, but must say well done to you Stefan for choosing the advertising job over the language course. I am a bit biased though as I worked in advertising sales for many years and loved every minute of it. Had to give up that career eventually, long hours and children do not make for an easy life. The kids grew up but the industry is so different now, I wouldnt even consider the challenges….am too old anyway 🙂 Happy to say that my daughter had planned a career in Law, got her degree and everything, but Law was not for her and she made a ‘leap of faith’ just like you and now is an account manager working for the number one agency in Scotland. They have just opened an office in New York and she may well move over there for a while to help set things up – her Dad is American, so that helps a bit. Anyway what I’m trying to say is that you will win if you want to. It’s hard work, long hours and sometimes you will wonder why you do it….but in the long run, nothing beats the satisfaction of being part of a winning team. Media agencies are reknowned for having a ‘work hard, play hard’ attitude – so there are many social benefits if you are up for it, don’t party too much on a ‘school night’ though 🙂 Go for it – and btw I think you will pick up the English language pretty quick without a course, the new job will probably help you on the way.
I love reading Good news 🙂 Best to all youngsters ( and oldsters) on here in their life’s path
XXXXX
Hi Kelda
Thanks for the encouraging words 🙂 I know, advertising is hard work and that means long workdays, but with the right clients, a great team and dedication to the job, it will be a great reward. For now, the first week in the job is almost over and I’ve had the opportunty to work on some great projects. Also I was allready able to learn some new things I didn’t know before, thats cool too. 🙂
Now I whish you all a happy Friday and a good start into the weekend.
while things are ‘quiet’ for now, it is a good thing to have a look what a volcano can do hence the recent history of the largest eruption in the last century of Mt Pinatubo
I think this should be made compulsory viewing for all Volcanoholics. It’s tense, frightening and reminds us not to become complacent. Mostly it should remind us what not to wish for!
I know that technology and monitoring has moved on since Pinatubo but throughout watching this I am thinking of places where evacuation will be more difficult. such as Vesuvius.
it also highlights the “on ” Off” “on” Off” activity. The huge difficulty of prediction. Hats off to the professionals who bear such responsibility. I am sure others will think “Bob”, although Bob and Possibly Bobbette are but small compared to these giants.
Also hats off to the Director of the Philippine Inst of Volcanology for recognising that there could be a problem.
Interesting the area covered by EQs preceding the eruption.
yes Karen. I think we should never ignore quakes around Volcanoes even if they are not under the recognised “magma chamber”. Thinking Hekla here.
Carl rated PHILVOC as second only to IMO in terms of expertise, hazard mitigation and all the other extremely complicated aspects of being the “authority” on volcanoes and seismicity etc.
Annndd I have to say the situation in the Phillipines is far more difficult.
There is a vastly larger population with a much higher proportion of them “living off the land” which meaans they will be living in the fertile volcanic regions etc etc
And the potential for massive devastating eruptions/ events is much higher int Phillipines…
you are good with words, not my strong one, it is exactly the reason I put it up, thanks
I think when the instruments between the observatory and the volcano completely failed would be when I would have shat bricks.
…….Always put jam in your pockets when messing with volcanoes……. I loved that dark humour 😀 You must watch to understand this..
So, the Hekla strain meter starts it’s dive again. In contrast to the beginning of the post this trend seems to get clear as well from Búrfell, Hella and Stórólfshvoll.. or do I make a mistake that these are in the vicinity.
No, i think you are correct and the downward trend shows clearly on all stations at the moment. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/hekla/
Some nice photos in this Daily mail article.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2305745/Is-magical-cave-world-The-chambers-carved-Kamchatkas-glaciers-volcano-fed-hot-springs.html
Wow! Stunning! Thanks for sharing that! Wonder who the hut belonged to? He said a vulcanologist but wonder if he knew or speculated? Surely they would have seen footprints or some other evidence other visitors had discovered the entrance too-it’s a wonder of nature for sure.
awesome ! fractals everywhere. The Islanders should see this, they probably have some like it at home !
In Kverkfjöll area: http://isafold.de/vatnajokull04/img_cavemen.htm 🙂
yepp, one in my back yard, totally overbooked, so popular 🙂
CHIE was a bit livelier earlier today: http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesDiasAnterioresHora.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2013-04-08_10-11&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2013&Mes=04&Dia=08&tipo=1&hora=10-11
http://www.ign.es/ign/layoutIn/volcaListadoTerremotos.do?zona=2&cantidad_dias=10
One @ 19 km and all others above that-even an 8 and last two @ 11 km. I saw last animation by schteve going deeper-but that doesn’t seem to be happening now.
Hi Maggiemom
sorry to be a wee miffed up there. I don’t think schteve does animations. I do. Schteve has many other qualities of course.
What a dunce I am-sincere apologies dfm!
Hi maggiemom and Dfm,
I planned to point out the mistake when I got home from work… but you’d already got there…
I do do animations actually, but it’s been a long while since they’ve been seen here… 🙂
I’m not set up to do the 4D rotating singing dancing stuff though.
The position of the animation in the thread and the way my comment was phrased could easily have given the impression that it was my plot, but of course that was not my intention… 🙂
Hi Schteve !
it’s not singing yet :grin:, I had some suggestion to put some music on it however…
Careful which music you choose, it may alienate some of yr viewers, how about some Ravel; La Valse perhaps or even Bolero… 😀
Totally my own fault for not scrolling farther up. . .and should have known intro is before animation. . just a goof up.
Found via Erik Klematti’s Eruption Blog, a seismic profile of activity at El Hierro posted by GuillermoChile:
it’s a Delaunay triangulation. I’m not over convinced especially as I do not know if they trimmed the data beforehand…..but the picture is pretty.
Hi all, bit of incandescence at White Island again.
And some activity evident on the drums:
http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/info/whiteisland/drums
ha! we killed it!:
http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/info/whiteisland/drums
Bob and El Hierro won the NASA-competition! Great 😀
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2013/04/08/longshot-captures-the-first-tournament-earth/
Wow, first time somthing I voted for one anything. I feel fairly chuffed now. 🙂
Oh dear. Need my tea, I will rewrite the above properly!
Wow, first time something I voted for won anything. I feel fairly chuffed now. 🙂
Hope Bob doesn’t celebrate too madly with the lava champagne corks – leave that the people on El Hierro.
* leave that TO the people on El Hierro.
Bob Hope 🙂
yep, he was a joker just like bob
Thanks for the memory…..
Since we won the contest, it should be fair enough to ask them to take a couple of fancy pictures of the area. Preferably with some nice scans of Co2, So2, elevation and temperature of the ocean, the land and the air around el hierro.
Does anyone here know how to give them a hint? :c
You may have just done that. It depends on how wide ranging their web exploration is.
Well let’s hope it will bring some more people to go to the island. I would have loved to, but it will be another time.
I’ll be at la palma with the whole family in june. If there’s anything going on at that time, i will pop over to experience it. But only if there is a new swarm. Its a bit expensive to get there.
I would like to experience a real quake, the netherlands is not the best way to experience it :p
91 % of the votes went to el hierro. That is redicolous! i think the encouragement from vocano cafe mst have helped.
That’s nice. 😆
😉
That picture was “seeded” 7th at the beginnig of the contest!!!
Armand over at earthquake report was also canvassing for the El Hierro pic, but if you’ll pardon the pun 91% is a landslide 😀
Hi arjanemm,
La Palma is absolutely lovely, have you been before?
https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/volcanic-mishaps-1-teneguia/
This is a little something I put together… The follow up is here:
https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2012/12/13/teneguia-technicalities-and-context/
This’n has some good, free- access references included…
If you want some more tips; just holler x
Thanks schteve, i’ve been there about 4 times i think. The island is absolutely beautifull. i hiked tenequia up the west side all the way to the top and skated down just on two shoes :C
Got scary when a big area of scorea started run down with me. Also waked down in to the crater from the west. Basicly walked the lava stream up to the source.
I allso hiked the Cumbra Tamburiente. An amazing walk with steap cliffs 700 m down to the left and 700 m straight up to the right, That’s when i found out i do havee a bit of fear of height.
The eiland is totally lusious and green espacially in the north.
We didn’t quite make it to the top of Bejenado, and failed to get organised for Los Tilos so I am gonna take Lizzie back as soon as I possibly can 🙂
Have you done La Ruta de Los Volcanes? El Refugio to Fuencaliente; challenging but well worthwhile…
BTW: A little bit of degassing going on at beautiful Alaskan volcano Augustine: http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Augustine_-_island.php
Dunno, what I saw looked more like a bug on the windshield after the wipers streaked it up.
I must have missed the gas emission.
Akhtarma-Pashali mud volcano in Hajigabul region of Azerbaijan has erupted, head of the ANAS Institute of Geology’s Mud Volcano Department Adil Aliyev told APA.
http://news.az/articles/society/78607
Updated ratios of Vp to Vs for the latest swarm on El Hierro: http://youtu.be/OOARBkMlmxU
Ignore the ratios of less than 1.0 (yellow on the 2D plots); these are solely due to calculation method used.
Could you please explain exactly what is shown? What is Vp and Vs ?
I’ll let Karen do the detailed explanation of her plot.
Vs and Vp are the velocities of the seismic waves (P and S) that you see on the seismograms. They are affected by the nature of the rocks and the presence of liquids and gases. Some techniques, mainly used in the petroleum industry use theses velocities to locate oil or gas.
Earthquakes generate several wave types: compressional (P); shear (S); body and surface waves. P and S waves are used to determine the time and location of the orgin of the earthquake.
Vp is the speed of the P wave – the first wave arriving at the seismometer
Vs is the speed of the S wave – the second wave arriving at the seismometer
As dfm has stated, the waves are affected by the nature of the rock they travel through. For example. S waves cannot travel though liquid.
More on Seismic waves: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_wave
Ok, Misunderstanding. I do know what is a P or S wave. But I know also the average velocities (in basalt, using your notation, Vp = 5200 – 6400 m/s and Vs = 2900 – 3400 m/s) so it was unclear to me that Vp is velocity of the P and Vs velocity of S. How do you compute your values?
The plot is of the ratio of Vp to Vs so here just match the waves, calculate the arrival times and work out the ratio.
Corrected video: http://youtu.be/Ie9I5naSmfg
Rogue data removed.
Very interesting. Thank you, KarenZ. 🙂
Would somebody among you perhaps be interested in doing a plot about the TFZ quakes series in Iceland? (hint)
I intend to, but I need to rework a bit my code.
I can do a clip later this evening for TFZ.
But I can’t do seismic wave speeds as I do not have access to the source data for these.
Great plot KarenZ. I’m tringing to crasp what you plotted. In the center of the swarm you clearly see less S waves. So i quess it’s more liquid there. The quakes furthest out are more P wave rich. Could be breaking of fresh strata due to stresses from the influx of magma in the center. I think these his deformation/cracking/quake are causing crevices for the magma to poor into. Does this make any sence ?
To calculate the ratio of Vp to Vs, you have to match the P waves to the S waves, so there are the same number of P and S waves in the plot.
Hi karen, well ofcourse they come in same numbers, but the ratio you ploted means wich one is more evident in the signal or not? 0.6 means a very low S ratio. 6.7 would mean a stronger S signal. Or is it about te diffence in speed. differnce in arival times ?
Don’t forget that Vp varies too.
incoming 4 R quake in North of Iceland
15 min ago
08.04.2013 23:38:34 66,664 -17,788 14,5 km 4,0 90,02 16,8 km NE of Grímsey
Hope you get a quiet night.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
most likely, but one never knows, swarms have tendency to alternate between north and south Iceland, so earth will shake here, eventually 🙂
Yee Haw. “The Excitable Ones” are jumping up and down about nuke weaps and EMP and that certain subs are unlocated. None of the vessels that I know of have a “boomer” capability, unless someone has managed to work out how to do a ballistic missile out of a 533mm torp tube. (purchaced cruise missile tech is a possibility though) Then there is the prob of EMP dynamics. Even at optimal speed, the sub crew is gonne be quite “ripe” by the time they reach Hawaii. (something like 360+ hours non stop, not counting the fuel issue on a diesel boat.) Provided they can do it.
Spooky? Yeah. Loonatics usually are. Add to that that NK is a bit unpredictable also.
Is there any truth that nk subs are missing as nothing on any news channels that I can find. Any links to other this information
two NK subs “missing” is absulut peanuts to worry about, re attack capabilities, only them on “one-way mission” they be used as flame-setter (then we hope it be recognised as no real further threat, for prevention of escalation) *sad face*
I agree on the peanuts aspect of it. I find it laughable that someone thinks that these boats can shuttle a ballistic missile to someones shore and then launch it.
Open ocean transits are not the easiest thing to pull off for a limited range diesel boat. Subs roll like a son of a @#$@# at the surface and thats where you need to be at to get air. (snorkel). Potentially puke central for even the hardiest sailor… or getting slammed into a piece of gear. (done that… not fun)
Dunno. I had to sift back through news articles to even find evidence that any got underway. As for missing, to us, the civilian populace, a sub goes “missing” once it dives since we have no way of tracking it. The Military on the other hand, {usually} can track them. What is “missing” to us is generally not missing to them. It doesn’t mean that something can’t be missing to them, just that its usually not the case.
None of NK’s subs are ballistic missile capable. They don’t have really long legs and they take forever to get somewhere. A Diesel on batteries can be very quiet if the equipment is designed properly and you have good crew discipline. If a particular sub is a threat and they loose track of it, the area will generally get flooded with assets in order to re-aquire it’s location.
One thing that a sub can’t counter is mad gear. A P-3 Orion can stay on patrol for an obscene amount of time. From geology, we have all seen the magnetic anomaly maps. That technology came about (in part) from the military’s Anti-Submarine Warfare work.
My main concern are those 533 mm tubes. NK has done quite a bit of trade with Iran, and Iran reportedly has test fired Шквал torpedoes (ostensibly acquired from Russia). They are used in 533 mm tubes. Essentially, they are 200+ knot torpedoes.
If they have them, and if those small subs are dispersed to wait it out in key locations along the shoals (they can bottom and hang out, almost invisible) then they could be setting up traps. Even with normal torpedoes they would be an effective surprise.
Recently, Japan’s PM told the JDF to shoot down the next missile that NK launches. Both South Korea and Japan have Aegis boats, but I think only the Japanese ones carry the SM-3 missile. SM-3 equipped ships are the only ones that have a chance to pop a ballistic missile… and they probably have to catch it near the apex of it’s trajectory. I know the SM-3 can do it, it was first tested against ultra high altitude targets on the R.K. Turner. (part of one seriously bad ass AA cruiser class that was deemed obsolete) The SM-3 essentially uses the whole SM-2ER ensemble as a boost phase for a Lightweight Exo-Atmospheric Projectile. Given the phenomenal capability of the SM2-ER tracking and engagement gear, I can see why the SM-3 would be as capable. Not getting skin to skin was always a problem on test shots. (you’re supposed to miss by a certain distance so that the other ships can shoot at the test target)
Here are a collection of SM-1 and SM-2 shots. The ship use a missile director to illuminate and track the target. These are large gimble mounted parabolic antenna covered with a radome. They always reminded me of the ED-209 from the movie RoboCop. (about the right size, loaded with servos, and just as un-predictable to someone standing nearby when they activate)
fairly well versed (for average person that is) in all things subs and patrol planes, from wartime PBY-5 (Model 28) to P-3C Update (default), about time for the P-8 Poseidon to burn some JP-4 lo-level 😉
Otherwise modern subs do not interest me, but seen one or two old diesels in port.
Subs never were of much interest to me either. But being able to discuss the threat with the wardroom was something that I always had to be able to do.
Personally, I think there is a world of shit to be had. It just depends on who gets the stinky end of the stick.
Magnetic anomaly detection is of very little value these days as it only works over very short range and against subs at shallow depth. It has largely been overlooked in ASW for many years, and was used really only as a last-chance check to make sure that you had a real sub as opposed to a whale just before prosecution.
As far as I am aware the US Navy’s new P-8s don’t have MAD (although the Indian ones do). The US Navy figured that as the P-8 is primarily intended for a high-altitude mission where MAD is useless the extra time on station gained through weight-saving is a lot more useful than lugging around a hunk of draggy 1950s technology.
What would you consider shallow depth? The Sang-O shows a max depth of 150 meters. (but then it is a follow on to the Yugo midget sub, and this is Wickerpedia data)
most of the Nork boats are of Russian either Romeo or Whiskey class subs. Both copies and improvements on the German XXIV u-boats. but they are still old diesel boats. IF they are smuggling a Nuke they should have a fair radiological signature.-unless it’s a Plutonium bomb.
Not to say they can’t do it, bu ti think we have an idea where they are..My concern is they can use a disgused “milch cow” for supplies and cover…
“Know your enemy” A saying we all know but who said it?
Sun Tzu was an ancient Chinese military general, strategist and philosopher from the Zhou Dynasty. He is traditionally believed to be the author of The Art of War, an extremely influential ancient Chinese book on military strategy.
During the 19th and 20th centuries, Sun Tzu’s The Art of War grew in popularity and saw practical use in Western society. His work continues to influence both Asian and Western culture and politics.
“Know your enemy” is good advice in any situation from something personal such as Job interviews to the world of warfare and the present sabre rattling from North Korea.
However sometimes it is impossible to understand exactly what is going on and to make any informed predictions. Just like Volcanoes it is not always easy to interpret the outward signs accurately as observers have little experience of hidden construction or true strength of fire power.
I think this quote from Sun Tzu can be applied to any Challenge whether personal, scientific, (Volcano watching and the challenge of prediction ) or military
” In respect of military method, we have,
firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity;
thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances;
fifthly, Victory”
ttp://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html
Here endeth my morning rumination and coffee #1 >>>>>>Potters off to get coffee #2 muttering something about how Lurking and tgmccoy always seem to somehow get her going by their written antics whilst she’s fast asleep………..
The complete link 😳
http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html
” In respect of eruptive method, we have,
firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity;
thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances;
fifthly, Waiting”
Lol 😀 So true 😀
Most likely to have very little radiological signature. I spent 21 years working with nucs while in the US Navy and total exposure was .43 millirems. Until they go bang there is not a great deal of radiation.
Obviously people underestimate NK a lot. An enemy in war would of course like to give the impression of being weaker than it is and hide its weapons.
Also: NK being in a state of war for 60 years, had plenty of time to prepare and develop weapons to attack the US and also to spy on them. It also had the help of its former ally the Soviet Union, through a obscure border.
Also did a lot of tunnels, so there is plenty that they develop we simply cannot observe.
If it has smugled a nuke over the US, or delivers a single EMP over its atmosphere, it is already game over for the US. And since this has been known for decades, the US already has a change of losing quickly and dramatically a possible war, especially when it stands so arrogant thinking that NK is a rather “weak” opponent possessing primitive nukes and balistic missiles.
However likewise, I am sure that the US possesses many secret weapons and secret plans to defeat NK. I just do not understand clearly if one opponent already developed these, why it had not use them yet. Of course there are the catastrophic consequences everyone would suffer. And perhaps no one wants to open another pandora box.
“No country “should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain”, President Xi Jinping…”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/07/us-korea-north-idUSBRE93408020130407
I think it is a very good sign for the world when China rebukes NK.
With respect to Ursh ‘s Comment and accompanying video of the Pinatuba eruption (Ursh says: April 8, 2013 at 09:02 )
I thought of the scenario of Vesuvius starting to grumble. What a nightmare! Much as I would like to be a professional Vulcanologist, in this situation I would not like to be in their shoes. This is one place where I think sleepless nights and major stress would be understatements for those brave people.
This site is good for following Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei Monitoring and pretty detailed information about all aspects of the monitoring of the Naples area.( Bing does quite a good translation for those who do not understand Italian).
The link is to the Vesuvius recent events data
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fsismolab.ov.ingv.it%2Fsismo%2Findex.php%3FPAGE%3DSISMO%2Flast%26area%3DVesuvio%26mode%3Dstatica
I omitted to say my thanks to the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) for such a useful and comprehensive Site. My apologies.
Yes, I think that too, and the collegueas at Catania are also doing a great job. 🙂
BTW: I don’t know which one is worse, Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei.
Don’t think that all the plates on earth are moving more than usual at the moment (prove?). And heightened activity at iceland’s volcanoes could partially be due to climate change (glaciers melting, land uplift etc.)
Also meteors have nothing to do with volcanoes.
I think Vesuvius is more of a problem, Campi Flegrei is always active bubbling away keeping energy releases in check, I think/hope, looking at Vesuvius gives me an uneasy feeling, always has, even Etna is more active lately, maybe the African plate is putting more pressure on the European plate, getting more energy/lava to form which has to go somewhere, all the plates on earth are getting a bid more of a workout in the last couple of years. There is a saying as above so below, Iceland in the north, NZ in the south to name one, Meteors etc in the sky versus undersea volcanoes, just thinking
Answer went astray. See above, 13:36.
Campi Flegrei is not always just bubbling in the same way, there were uplift episodes up to some meters, changes in gas composition etc. Parts of the population centers of the Naples area are literally sitting on it. And it is a big caldera.http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pozzuoli_NASA_ISS004-E-5376_modified_names.jpg
The Civil Protection services were rather concerned not so long time ago.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027313000127?np=y
Erik Klemetti on Campi flegrei caldera:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/01/the-restless-campi-flegrei-caldera-volcano/
Ursh, the fact that a volcano bubbles (geothermal activity) does not release any pressure by any means. It is just a sign that there is magma near the surface that heats the water and mud.
The scale of comparison is astonishing. Just a small amount of magma stuck next to the surface makes water boiling. But its a large amount of magma in deep that can create further pressure.
Just cause Camp Flegrei “bubbles” does not mean it is near an eruption or very relaxed and away from an eruption. Example: Grimsvotn has large geothermal activity and erupts often. Hekla erupts often and has no geothermal activity. Geysir has geothermal activity and rarely eruptions. And some volcanoes (like Snaefellsjokull) rarely erupt and do not show any geothermal activity. So, one thing has nothing to be with the other.
However, if geothermal increases or changes suddently, it can be caused by a influx deep of magma which creates changes in geothermal activity. This is what happened with Katla in recent years, but per se, does not mean a pending eruption for sure.
So far, an increase in earthquakes together with deep earthquakes, and sustained inflation seem to be the better indicators of a coming eruption, to any volcano anywhere. But still they are not sure indicators. Sometimes volcanoes do not erupt with all these signs. And sometimes they do erupt without any of these signs! How about that? 😀
In the meantime, though not producing paroxysms, Etna is not sleeping neither. This morning the New Southeast Crater showed off that he is also able to do something Strombolian again: http://www.meteoweb.eu/2013/04/esplosioni-sulletna-patane-ingv-nessuna-novita-particolare-e-la-normale-attivita-del-nuovo-cratere-di-sudest/196874/
Etna tremore looks kind of….tremory
http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/tremore-vulcanico.html
Could be that the strombolian activity just was a precursor to something else.
Ok, now I know what the top of Iceland orói graph was some hours ago. Likely the 6+ in Iran
yes that looks fairly nasty – earthquake report.com currently have the figures at 31 dead with 800 injured, I hope that the numbers stop increasing soon
oh and there is a beachball on ER but I still have not figured out how to read them properly, so if someone wanted to give us a bit more info on the quake and the region that would be interesting.
There is often interesting information on quakes and their context at USGS: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000g2y5#summary
Thanks Inge, and @dragons I wonder if sites like this ought to be listed in the crows nest above ?
Edward
Give me some more minutes
I am writing a post on this right now!!!
Oh well not quite this, on volcano webcams.
80% of a town at the epicentre flattened and widespread damage, because of a lot of mud brick constraction which crumbles in an EQ, there was a report 32 dead, most likely to rise
OT – Apologies to any Argentinians who pass by here, but this is outright funny.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/ferret-poodle-argentina-125901615.html
Ferrets on Steroids ???? Keep your fingers out ! So Steroids are really cheap, 150 US$ a ferret……
ROFL ! I had not seen the pictures ! The guy’s blind or what ?
” come here, heel ! Argghhh it chewed my finger ! bad doggie ! ”
Never trust a poodle they are vicious dogs….
Also dangerous. ferrets tend to dive up trouser legs 😀 Not sure if Poodles can do that 😀
Knew a Yorkshire Terrier that did that- neighbor in my old town had a quite cute
18-year old daughter-she fell in with this klown that was abusive to her- one day,
he finally decided to rough her up while her parents were gone. The yorkie went up his pant leg and proceeded to chew on the way up; 33 stitches worth he bolted out of the house trying to get the yorkie out of his pants..The girl had a black eye. We saw the
whole dog shaking episode.
The yokie, ‘Luvvie” got a steak dinner that night…
He got charged..
Good doggie. 😀
Would have been worth a youtube vid had it been around!
Reminds me of a doggie treat commercial… “Snausages!”
Etna is again doing something, probably in the Strombolian class: http://www.guide-etna.com/webcam/#
What regards the tremor chart: I’d suppose it being upscaled from sometime this morning on: http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/tremore-vulcanico.html
There is a lot of this activity of smaller explosions incl. ash emission now going on.
Quite a funny coincidence,
Three days ago a 6.0 earthquake in North Korea
Today a 6.5 earthquake in Iran.
With all the current war tensions, this sounds like a funny coincidence, or secret and undisclosed tests by those nations, or tests of a secret weapon creating earthquakes by the US or any other third party. Or “God” has a sense of irony.
And of course, the epicenter of the earthquake in Iran is right in Iran’s nuclear site.
These quakes are as a striking coincidence as the Russia meteor happening in the same day as the fly-by asteroid, but different trajectories.
I must say I am strongly skeptical of coincidences as big as these ones.
Where is GeoLoco now, when one needs him? 😉
How about a GeoLurking?
The Iranian Quake had what appears to be a pretty solid focal solution with 86 stations contributing. Had there been anything fishy about it, I’m pretty sure someone would be raising unholy hell about it. The solution seems to match the prevailing fault systems.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/fm/neic_b000g2y5_fmt.php
It also has aftershocks galore and they seem to be following the Gutenburg-Ricter power law. (yet more evidence that it was just a quake)
As for power, at about 2 megatons, it would have been quite news worthy, and Iran would be jumping up and down about it like a kid who just discovered his “extremity”.
Just as the Roman & Greek Gods enjoyed playing with human life paths I am sure “Him Up there” by which ever name you know him likes to keep us on our toes. I have always been of the opinion that “Heaven” would be a pretty boring place if all you do (If you get there) is play harps and lounge about singing with the angels. So There must be many times when the human race is “tested” to relieve the monotony. 😀 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBHZFYpQ6nc
my thoughts, if quacks like a duck…..the main quake in Iran was 89km from the reactor and it was reported to and is regarded as save by the international…
This sloping trend on Hekla strain, do you think this pose somewhat a higher risk to generate earthquakes?
I mean, something could possibly break apart if the strain is big enough.
The strain seems to me to be going down rather than up at the moment. It does not seem unusual to me (except that it usually goes up) but I will wait till one of our Icelandic friends comment. 🙂
I have no idea if this downwards trend in Hekla strain is normal or not. So far, no earthquakes as of lately. Hekla is really hard to figure out!
The only thing I know for sure about this chart is that they keep resizing it and I have no idea how to read it at all apart from the fact that it seems to go down for days then go up for days, (with minor changes of course) whereas up until now I haven’t noticed that the other charts, Burfell, Hell and Sto show such a slow rise up and down. Having said that the overall trend of them all seems to be generally downward in the last few days. What this signifies for Hekla i have no idea!
@ inge : TFZ plot is on its way
@ Volcanic : I did a few plots myself on VP Vs , poisson ratio and the like a few months ago. You can find them on my YT channel. I made an assumption, by computing directly Vp and Vs from the arrival times. I know the calculation is wrong, but I choose this method for simplicity and to get an approximation on the results, just to see if it showed something. KarenZ calculation I think was a bit more complex. It would be interesting to compare the results.
I think you have a better understanding so feel free to comment.
Re. TFZ: Merci beaucoup, hein. 🙂
Calculation for the Ratio of Vp to Vs is a straightforward ratio of the P wave and S wave arrival times.
The calculation for wave velocities is a bit more complex, but not used above.
Sorry, but I still do not see how this make sense. Could you add an example?
Very simple mathematics:
Vp = X/Pt where X is the distance between hypocentre and seismometer and Pt is the time the P wave takes to reach the seismometer.
Vs = X/St X as above and St is the time the S wave takes to reach the seismometer.
In the ratio of Vp to Vs, X cancels out so you are looking at the ratios of the wave arrival times.
No, you don’t. You are looking at the ratios of time travel, not the arrival time. Not at all the same.
Suppose two earthquakes located at the same place (same mechanism) and recorded by the same recorder but at two different times (one hour difference). The distance is the same, only the arrival times differ. I should have the same ratio.
First one: Pt = 23:00:01 and St = 23:00:04
Second one near midnight Pt = 0:00:01 St = 0:00:04
According to you I compute 23:00:04 / 23:00:01 = 1.000036231 (Excel time) and St/Pt = 4. Huh ?
What is kept constant is the difference of time between the two arrivals.
Now the earthquake occurs (first case) at 22:59:57
Travel time second case: P: 23:00:01 – 22:59:57 = 4 second
Travel time second case: S: 23:00:04 – 22:59:57 = 7 second
Ratio : 7/4 = 1.75
Second one at 23:59:57
Travel time first case: P: 0:00:01 – 23:59:57 = 4 second
Travel time first case: S: 0:00:04 – 23:59:57 = 7 second
Ratio : 7/4 = 1.75
What’s the real issue?
Most EQs had Vp to Vs in the expected range; i.e. 1.73. +/- You can tell from the plots that most values fell in the expected range.
Yes I think there is a little misunderstanding. The velocity means that you’re using arrival time and earthquake time given by the ign data to calculate the velocity of the wave by using travel time. That’s all.
So there’s apparently not a lot of “strange” values. So no magma intrusion ?
Dunno – about no magma instrusion as I have not found expected Vp to Vs ratios for magma, rocks near magma or crystalline mush. There are values outside the range 1.5 to 2.0, and even 1.5, itself, may be an odd value.
Etna seems to be having a few burps….
Been going on some part of today now.
Boris Behnke, INGV volcanologist, has two new posts about this activity on his blog – they think there is another paroxysm in the making.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/etnaboris/8633872979/in/photostream and http://www.flickr.com/photos/etnaboris/8635829134/in/photostream
Etna tremor: http://www.flickr.com/photos/etnaboris/8635829134/in/photostream
This was a bit too fast, wron linlk, sorry.
Here comes the correct one: http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/tremore-vulcanico.html
And again too fast … ehm .. should read: wrong link … ehm ..
damn, just missed a blast. I opened the webcam this morning and all looked totally calm and quiet. Went to the kitchen, and when I came back a huge ash cloud was drifting off to the east.
Plot of EQs in TFZ for 2013. I have focused on time periods as dfm is also doing a plot.
Thank you, KarenZ. This helps a lot for identifying developments in the swarm. 🙂
Real nice. the cumulative effect brings a lot.
Thanks Karen. A nice concise view of the activity.
Spica, we hang on your lips and seem to be a really eager bunch 😉 !
This is my version of the eq matrix:
The current swarm is well within the range of previous swarms, but there are some significant deep earthquakes down to or below the assumed Moho. I am still impressed about how the eq swarm is contorted, which I think is named décollement, or basal detachment faulting, which can occur in extensional settings. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A9collement
Here http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/prenlab2final/node82.html is reported that the Grimsey lineament is extending 5 mm/yr and one can distinguish between superficial and deep dislocation in the TFZ.
Sorry, it were Inge´s lips 😉
🙂 😉
Do you think the deep earthquakes imply the involvement of a magmatical component?
Like this also very much, thank you. 🙂
In my no-expert opinion I would hazard a vague yes? But we don´t have seismograms or tremor plots to see if the earthquakes are “wet” or not…
There is the TFZ submarine volcanic field not far away, so it is well possible I would think.
Lovely.
🙂
Thank you chryphia. Another magnificent plot. Just showing how deep some of those quakes have been.
So is there Etna … http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/terremoti-recenti-etna/catalogo-strumentale.html
🙂
Apropos Etna, do you also think, the tremor plot was upscaled / recalibrated or so today?
I don´t think so because the units on the y-axis did not change, still up to 500.
Wisdom caught in the spam dungeon: The particular elevator for you to success is out with friends involving buy. You’ll need to utilize the stairs… just one move during a period
Huh? 😯
Second that….huh?
Fortune cookies’ wisdom
Hello all! I am delighted that some of you find my webcam collection useful (I know, some others put watching webcams in the same league as knitting scarves 😉 ) I have somewhat beautified and added my page for Indonesia, with mainly the “back cameras” as georgiade said above, from the badan geologi website. Now, from the 11 cams I have there 7 are not working… If one of you knows of another volcano webcam in Indonesia or on other Pacific Islands, please, please, let me know the link! Thanks in advance!
So far I have
Lokon, Ijen, Tangkuban, Sinabung, Merapi, Semeru, Papandayan, Galunggung, Bromo 2x, Yasur (Vanuatu). There are supposedly 2 more in Vanuatu, but I cannot find them.
And this the link to the Indonesian page:
http://www.malinpebbles.com/Images/FOTOS/Meine-Webcam-Seiten/pubweb/Indonesia.htm
Any suggestions for improvements are welcome!
Good night!
Sorry, but just after I posted the link, the server went down 😦 Must be something serious because that has happened only twice in the last 6 years…
For all.
Do not forget that earthquakes occur when rock fractures. The hotter the rock at a given pressure, the more ductile it is. (bends or oozes). If the stress accumulates faster than the rock can bend to accomodate it, you can get a quake.
This reminder was brought to you by the number “blue”
Is blue the new red?
This blast Bruce?
Inge B mentioned Etna earlier in the tread, keep watch on this volcano. If Dr. Boris says it is getting worked up for the next paroxysm ( that would be #10 this year right? ) it is most likely happening.
Etna does burp without a rising tremor occasionally, But ever since i watched it, the tremor was always rsing high before a full beautifu paroxysm happened. So we should pay attention to this site, http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/tremore-vulcanico.html and we will be ready to watch the cams.
I guess that was it Spica. There have been a couple more since. Seems to be picking up. I can’t remember the activity before the paroxysms ever being so, um, vulcanian, I guess is the right term. Etna looks more like Sakurajima this morning than Stromboli.
Thanks for posting the pictures Spica, I too missed it. This is the first time I have seen Etna just ‘burping’ so find it really interesting.
New post is up: https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2013/04/10/watching-volcanoes-from-your-livingroom/