Lazy sunday afternoon ( evening)

/ April 14, 2013
Webcam screenshot by Graniya

Webcam screenshot by Graniya

El Popo / Popocatepetl showed some action and distrubuted a cloud of ash.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/04/13/popocatepetl-volcano-spews-ash-over-central-mexico-state/

Sunset at Puebla with erupting Popocatépetl:

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-popocatepetl.html
2nd eries
Commenters speculated what the “second” plume could be. A forest fire? A industrial plume from a factory? Gas emissions? I still dont know for sure.
Geolurking provided a helpful link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.htmlPOPO0053
Parent page is at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html
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Etnas “paroxysmic eruption” ( very nice word Newby)  was most active very late in the night of April 12th.

Boris Behncke opinion: Paroxysm or no paroxysm?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/etnaboris/8642730164/
and
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/04/brief-explosive-eruption-from-etna/#disqus_thread

Some activity  ( glow) can still be seen on these cams: http://www.lave-volcans.eu/webcams_etna.php?numero=2
http://www.etnaweb.net/nunziata/webcam.php
( Thanks KarenZ)

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Alan C´s Evil riddle: The Answer was Ulexit:

Graniya: “Gigantic hunks of Ulexite are found in the form of fibrous, compact veins. When polished, these specimens become the well-known “Television Stone” or “TV Stone” sold to amateur collectors. The optical effect exhibited by Television Stone is caused by each of its individual fibers acting as fiber-optic cables, transmitting light from one surface to the other. Since all the fibers are parallel and compacted together, any image at below is transmitted through each crystal fiber to the top surface. For this effect to be seen, the specimen must be polished with smooth surfaces. Fibrous Ulexite bundles can also be carved into cabochons that display strong chatoyancy. However, due to its low hardness, it is unsuitable for gem use.”

Alan C: “Well, ’tis obvious that our Granyia is well read-up on AA Milne!
Winnie the Pooh fell into a gorse bush honey hunting
gorse is genus Ulex – the prckly subject – so we have Ulexite!! DING!!!
Ulexite (NaCa hydroxyborate) – nickname TV Mineral from optics c/f fibre optic cables”

Graniya had not read AA Milne but still got the right answer. 😉

0107490001245608923
http://www.mindat.org/photo-237267.html
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El Hierro

dmf: “Here is the update on the density plotting for El Hierro. Up to the 12th.
In this plot the first part shows daily earthquake density with a mesh of 90 x 90 m.
For the last days the plot shows the limitation of the system. Too few earthquakes and too much dispersion (see the scale on the right blocked at 0.9)
The second part shows a cumulated earthquake density, with a day by day cumulation.
Data is from IGN & NOAA, made on Gnu Octave.
The second part shows very well the most active areas and the evolution of the quakes focus.”

——————————————————————————————————-
And in Iceland:
The TFZ earthquake swarm is progressing north and now active around the island of Kolbeinsey, about 75 km north of Grímsey.http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/atlantic/ ( Thanks IngeB)

Spica

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212 thoughts on “Lazy sunday afternoon ( evening)”

  2. Thank you Spica.

    Love the picture of uxelite. Followed the link and discovered that it is growing on colemanite.

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  3. @ Clive, You said in your last post, “Had another look at Grimsfjall and it is way more than the storm showing up elsewhere.” I am inclined to agree with you on that Clive. The storm has shown up in a raise in the lower tremors on other tremor charts, notably Hekla ones that I have watched, but it is slowly decreasing on them whereas on Grimsfjall there has been no decrease yet. I think we should see in a few hours if it decreases so will have a better idea of what is happening. One thing I have learned from this site is ‘Wait and see’.

    @Spica, Thank you, a good summary of the weekend and it reminded me to check on El Hierro too.

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  7. Admin-check out the news about WordPress under attack, and how to avoid the coming botnet. Sorry, did not check that anyone has already shared what has hit the news today. Forbes has a good news article with advice. . .

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    • I am a cynic, at heart. I have been working in the IT field forever (well, it feels like it) and know a bit of the innards on how it all works. I also don’t trust governments… at all.

      Who is to say that these “attacks” are not part of a way to promote fear and crisis by entities who wish to push greater and greater control on networks? In order to do that, you have to shape and mold public opinion in order to get the populace to accept greater governmental control. Remember, government exists by the consent of the governed. If there were a bona-fide threat, all the government would have to do is to locate and arrest the perpetrators. Locating them is not that difficult, even if they are using “bot-nets.” (not really what you would call a “new idea” by the way). No, can’t insist that people learn how to effectively use firewalls. You have to scare the larger sites into using a managed hosting service.

      Now… what would be the purpose of pushing sites into a managed hosting service? Well, I can think of several of reasons that are beneficial for those wishing to control what is published. It’s similar to the threat posed to groups/individuals/companies who opt for outsourced backup solutions. Once your data is on someone else’s machine, it can be mined. Sifted through, useful stuff extracted. All without the knowledge of the actual owner of the data. Legislation pushing it’s way through various legislative bodies will prevent carriers from even letting the end use know that their data has been requested by an investigative entity. To me, that violates the meaning of due process. Isn’t one of the the purposes of a subpoena to let a person know that they are being investigated so that they can seek counsel?

      Yeah… “attackers” are hacking the system. My ass. If looked at deeply enough, I would not be surprised to find a government entity at the other end of the attack.

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      • Plausible explanation, Lurk. If we all had your brain we wouldn’t be taken that easily.
        Unfortunately we, normal humans, are caught into the freaking turmoil of novelty and tech-treats. 😉

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        • Haven’t had a good Vodka binge in years. (My head is thankful for that. I nearly got in trouble at high school for a rather animated display of displeasure at a basketball game. I at least had enough clarity of thought to shut up when the principal began to sternly observe our behavior. One more drink and I probably would have flipped him off. I had not yet learned the importance of hydration and had a hangover beyond belief the next day.)

          Back on that data-mining thing. It is amazingly easy to write an application that digs through web accessible data and to parse it out into a database. I had toyed around with the idea of rummaging around through the arrest blotter and compiling a map of where the criminals resided. Something like that could be handy when selecting a place to live.

          I never wrote it (ethics and I don’t want anyone knocking on my door), but it would be easy to do. If some idiot (me) can puzzle out how to data-mine, you know good and well that someone with government backing and cryptologic resources could put together a really scary implementation.

          For years I used to while away the time looking at public relations notices put out by companies. The ones that alway got my attention were the ones where In-Q-Tel™ made investments. They are the investment arm of an intelligence agency. (Founded by Gilman Louie, formerly of Hasbro Toys).

          Some of the stuff they invested in is a bit telling. Mostly it has to do with data mining and data-base management.

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          • …(My head is thankful for that. I nearly got in trouble at high school for a rather animated display of displeasure at a basketball game. I at least had enough clarity of thought to shut up when the principal began to sternly observe our behavior. One more drink and I probably would have flipped him off. I had not yet learned the importance of hydration and had a hangover beyond belief the next day.)

            2nd part of the Don’t drink and drive bit…

            “…also, don’t drink and yell profanities at the other team while leaping up and down on the bleachers.”

            And to think… somehow I, and my liver, survived and managed to graduate.

            I have since given up on following sports for the most part. However I do enjoy a good melee or watching downhill skiing. That is pure insanity. Some people are good at it… others eat trees.

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            • Lurk, being a westerner, I love Downhill Skiing. My personal role model and hero for
              skiing was/is Franz Klammer of Austria. Retires from skiing-goes motor racing.
              my kind of guy… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Klammer
              Taken two years to recover from my torn muscle in my left leg so haven’t done much
              latley. That was from walking my Dog!! Who decided that a squirrel did not have the right to cross the street…
              I quit drinking years ago when it was discovered that there was a little Cherokee
              in the McCoy line (Granma was 4’11…) and decided that like my wife, Drinking
              shouldn’t be done if the Native genes overrule the Euros…
              Do miss a good single malt Scotch ….
              About tree skiing.- I was never good at it-Ursh is right . There is an area on
              the local Ski Hill that has the most incredible powder and sings to the unwary
              who cross the rope with the sign-DO NOT SKI OUT OF BOUNDS!-with a signature
              at the bottom that looks like “Charles Darwin…”

      • Okay… so what is the little box at the bottom right of my screen that now says ‘+ follow’ ?

        I didn’t notice it there before, though I might not have been suspicious of it before either…

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        • Curious here too. It has been there since at least the weekend-I’m leery of it so i just have ignored so far. There is a larger window about following when site first opens and then disappears except for that little ‘follow’ that scoots down to the lower left and stays there.
          Any admin know what’s up with that?

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          • Ok, when i change windows the big box pops up every time for 1 sec and says- FOLLOW VOLCANOCAFE. GET NEW POSTS SENT TO YOUR Mailbox. . .once it disappears the little box does it’s thing and never goes away.

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      • No don’t delete. Inannamoon, thanks for posting that. I was looking for it as i had lost the link. I think it was a couple of pages back now.

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        • Newby, or anyone else, if you ever lose a link to a webcam, check my camera pages if it is there. If I have the cam, you can find the link to it on top where it says “O-web” (Original website of the camera). In many cases I have listed additional webcams for the same volcano underneath. Exception is the Hawaii page, where you can click on any image to get to the HVO website.

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          • Hi Granyia,
            From the previous post, I watched colima for a while… Not convinced after all about the pyroclastic flow, I think your idea was probably right 🙂
            @ Spice thanks for the update, nice collection of pictures. The Popocatapetl happening was exciting…

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            • Steve, have you seen the 2 Colima videos above (Inge B., 21:25) They show clearly what is happening there. Good night!

            • It was a (Geo)Tweet by J. A. Stevenson from “Volcano 1010” yesterday evening, and the comment said it was rock fall /lapilli and ash eruption as far as I remember. He didn’t mention pyroclastic flows.

  9. I got faked out by the wide angle Popo cam this evening. I kept doing image difference processing and got fooled into thinking the glow was the moon by the way it tracked. A few min later it was gone. Last I checked, the moon wasnt known for having warp drive. That was likely incadescence (sp) from the eruption site.

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    • Interesting Ursh. Most likely I think though is that it will stay just as it is the same as volcanic spring in parts of Spain do. I also think we/mankind know less than we think we do about the forces of nature around us.

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      • Oh boy! Santa Anas and Volcanic ash. That is a comforting thought as the possibility of going south in this year’s Fire Season increases….
        “There was a desert wind blowing that night. It was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make your nerves jump and your skin itch. On nights like that every booze party ends in a fight. Meek little wives feel the edge of the carving knife and study their husband’s necks. Anything can happen. you can even get a full glass of beer at a cocktail lounge.”
        — from “Red Wind” by Raymond Chandler wonder what Chandler would’ve thought about that…?

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    • … then again, there was that sizable quake in the area where the San Andreas turns west. This could have been a stress reliever that allowed the block on the west side to shift a bit north, if so, then the region at the south end of the Salton Sea would probably have less compression. I have no idea how long it takes for decompression melting to occur and manifest itself as fresh magma.

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      • decompression melting would be an interesting topic, would most likely solve a few other things we try and get our heads around as far as volcanoes and eruptions or luck of them goes

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    • Though if you compare this shot with the current shot, it’s mostly muck on the lens… 😀
      Looking at the thermal cam stromboli is quite busy…

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      • Acc. to this rapport, there have been some explosion quakes and VLP (very long period events) at Stromboli and there have been small landslides at Sciara del Fuoco (communicato Stromboli 14/04/2013 http://www.ct.ingv.it/it/comunicati.html , in Italian) As you can see from the list, there is continuous survey over developments at Stromboli.

        As far as I remember, I read somewhere that also Stromboli changed his behaviour in 2001 – more or less at the same time as Etna.

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  14. Hey guys.

    When it comes to both earthquake activity, and volcanic activity, it seems that when something happens, more things happen, and when something stops, other things also stops..

    Is this just random, or is there a reasons for this?

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    • There is always a reason for stuff happening 😉

      On a more serious note though, if you look at datasets with loads of events spread out over time you will find out that every random distribution will have periods with hardly any activity and periods where several events happen close to each other or at the same time. This is what just bare statistics tell us, and given that there is no arguing possible with math anyway, I’d say that accounts for most of it if you are looking at large datasets of those events.

      Some events might trigger each other though, but if they are geographically not close to each other those correlations are generally very poor, leaning towards statistical insignificance. For forecast purposes they are pretty much useless. Some correlations are really strong, for example registering aftershocks after a big quake, but those are geographically very close and the mechanisms are well understood, but even there forecasts of aftershock timing, location and strength are nearly impossible.

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      • an analogy, a swing goes up one end and down the other, like cause and effect, earth is a whole organism, ripple effect surely will come into the equation

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      • The ripples in the water. Interference patterns much like the odd power distribution in the SISZ in my plot.

        (BTW, that is what this is. A rectangle around the SISZ that encompasses Hengill through and past Hekla… energy plot of each quake in the box)

        Carl had a couple of ideas about why it looked like that. Ya see, it looks a lot like an interference pattern that you see in wave mechanics… but this is rock, not some flowing medium like water or air. Well, not flowing like water or air, though on geologic scales it does flow.

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  15. I think its all random to be honest, its just the Earth doing what comes naturally. Its just natures way of doing things, nothing much we can do but stand back and admire it in all its natural goodness and beauty. just my opinion of course.

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    • Hello Mw! Funnily, about a year or so ago, I made an almost identical animated gif of this same cam! At the time I have searched on observaty websites, blogs and looked closely at newly taken photos. My conclusion then was that it was Eyafjallajökull still venting some steam from the crater at times. Nothing more came of it. But… as I am not watching the Icelandic seismic charts these days, somebody else will be able to say more.

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    • I wonder if it could be a very strong wind blowing ash around. I looked at those cams and first thought it was another paroxysm but the thermal cams don’t show much.

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    • Oh so lovely. Seeing it with it’s tongue poking out made me laugh out loud! Looked just like my son as a baby when he was tanked up on milk!

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      • If you lived where they lived you probably would too. Who coined the phrase, ‘Survival of the fittest?’ Humans certainly aren’t the fittest!

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        • Actually… we are. We got this gizmo that lets us figure out ways of dealing with things that want to eat us.

          But… we also have others of our kind that won’t let us use common sense.

          Recently, four armed guys broke into a house in the Carolinas. Two made it out alive. I was discussing this with a friend earlier today. The homeowners solution was much less messy than mine would have been. I would have to redo sheet rock if my method of dealing with the threat were used.

          For their sake, I hope these four were after more than just an eggbeater (like the two idiots in Hillsboro county in South Florida)

          Pistol wounds are much more tidy than a 12 gage or machete. If I have to resort to the machete, I probably won’t survive… but someone is gonna leave with at least one less appendage. I don’t like thieves, so if they wish to leave behind an arm or hand for what I have, I’ll trade.

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          • I had someone breaking in during the day while out, they came back of a night like 3am and picked up some stuff they hid under the scrubs in the front yard, close, very close to the house, I was to scared to do anything about it at the time, knowing what I do now I would have challenged them, especially since I know who did it, but it is water under the bridge, the only thing is, it never leaves you, even now sometimes I wonder and have to banish the ghosts

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    • Hello, a good lazy Monday evening all! And a big thanks to stoneyard for this video! I may not have read AA Milne, but Simon’s Cat videos I may have seen all. And do not mind watching them again and again! 😀

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    • Stoneyard, that made me think of my husband and our pet. Almost identical circumstances except ours is a dog. LOL. He can twist that man round his paw like I never could!

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      • !Meg has the measure of my Husband too. I refuse to let her sleep on the bed. She is far too heavy and also I don’t like the hairs….. but she looks into husband’s eyes and I swear she hypnotises him, then somehow she slides on like an SAS sniper, then upwards in the direction of my pillow as soon as I get up on a Sunday,.

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        • Hahahahahahaha. I swore when we got this dog from a rescue centre that he was NEVER coming into the bedroom. Yep you guessed it, every morning guess where he is?
          At least I have been able to insist he sleeps in his bed OUTSIDE out door overnight!.

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          • outside the bedroom door that is. Even I am not hard enough to banish him outside the house and he is gradually worming his way into my affections too despite being a terror of a terrier.

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            • :D, Thanks for the light relief after that dreadful news from Boston Diana. I am already struggling a bit with a bout of depression, that news didn’t help 😉
              Now to happier things, I will leave you to guess the answer to you question. 😉

            • I am a husband, so I think I can weigh in on this thought.

              There is no real difference. We are but utility items that are kept around the house to accomplish tasks that are within our skill set.

              Much like a clothes dryer or washing machine.

              The dog acts as a warning system or vermin eradicator. Husbands are similar… and act as a sort of defense against the more willy intruder. And we can occasionally fix stuff.

              Speaking of such.

              Today, I was working on a machine… in this case, a printer. It had a stripped gear that I had to replace. About halfway through this process, printer parts laying asunder, I notice a 40 something relatively attractive lady intently watching me. She averted her eyes when I glanced up. Several minutes later I look up again, and she is still watching. To me, a bit on in years, this was an ego boost. Somewhat miffed that I caught her watching again, she gathers up her teenybopper and they leave.

              In retrospect, I don’t think that she was actually attracted to me, but more to the act of a man actually fixing something… and knowing what he was doing. (it’s a complicated gear to replace, unless you’ve done a few)

              Either way, it allowed me a bit of solace at still being able to draw interest as I grow older. (by some standards, I’m still young at 50+)

            • GeoLurking. WOOT of WOOF. Thanks for the laugh. This place always provides things to amuse me.

      • a few years ago, a couple came and bought one of my Bichons Frise, a litle girl, the lady was petite and her husband was a big buff head full of himself, like let the darling have her pet (on my terms) he was very insistent on what the pooch was allowed to do or not, I thought, yahhh, a few weeks later she sent me a picture of him laying in bed asleep with a blissful expression on his face and the pup curled around his neck

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    • I’ve been watching on the rolling news sites – awful attack on defenceless people. My sympathy to anyone affected by this terrible event.

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    • Oh how dreadful. Whatever goes through the minds of people to do such a wicked thing?!!!!! Or do they not even have their own minds any more? So very, very sad.

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      • Simple. To stay in power. To motivate people to willingly accept yet more deprivations of liberty.

        Count me as a loon as you wish, I’m an old fart and don’t give a c@#$.

        (rant off)
        While this was still rolling out, I was on site and had an officer curiously watching me… with my tool kit working on a piece of equipment. He later lost interest after he talked to the site’s manager. That manager is ex LEO and he himself run my prints into the state database, so he knew I was crystal clean and probably mentioned it to the curious officer. At least the officer was looking for the ‘out of the ordinary’… which at first glance, I was.

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        • Now, counter to my idea (above) the double tap explosion(s) are characteristic tactics of certain mid-east terror attacks. The idea is to catch the first responders unaware. Whether that was intended or not, or if it was used to point at another group as being culpable has yet to be determined.

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          • I was at the home of a retired US Marshal.helping him with his Case Traxcavator.
            (somewhat too familiar with Case products.) phone rings- one of his buddies from
            US Marshal days. This was about the Bombing. We turn on the TV-CNN..
            He says just by looking; “Middle east connections.IED like-possible use of Shrapnel
            (later shown to be ball bearings) ” He also used the term ”double tap.”.
            This was based on his experience.He was at 9/11 12 hours after it happened..
            Then co-operated with London Police in the Bombings there. Also others….

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          • There is already some weird stuff connected with this event. CNN put up a memorial page on Facebook for the victims and families… several hours before it happened.

            It will probably be explained away as a timezone thing.. much like our posting times here on VC not always matching our local time, or someone else’s local time. When you have systems scattered around the world, oddities like that can pop up.

            Here is another oddity. note the date, and what the equipment is… and note where it will be first used.

            On the volcanic side of things, if it works, this sort of thing would be quite handy if one erupts near a population center. (not the autocrib it thing in the picture. Cribbing is another area of first response that is a royal pain to do, but necessary for safety. Done wrong you can get someone killed)

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          • The “double tap” was also used by the IRA in its bombing campaign in the UK in the 1970’s. It was usually successful. I was in Bristol during both IRA bombings there. These Bristol bombings were notable for the lack of casualties – purely by luck. On one occasion two bombs were placed on a main shopping street (Park Street). The first one went off and the fire and police services responded quickly – it went off at night as by this time the IRA realised that killing women and children out shopping was not doing their cause any good. The second device was much bigger and timed to kill the maximum number of first responders. However the Fire Chief had called an emergency meeting of everyone to co-ordinate what they were going to do. They were all on one side of a Fire Engine when the bomb exploded – on the other side. Huge damage to shops and windows, very little to humans.

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        • “Simple. To stay in power. To motivate people to willingly accept yet more deprivations of liberty.”

          Wait, what?

          Who on earth will be more likely ‘to stay in power’ as a result of bombing a road race in America??!!

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          • If you look at it from the viewpoint of liberty, then the government is in power, and this attack will most likely strengthen the basis for more government-provided safety and security. It’s not a matter of who or which party is in power. I think that is what he meant.

            But please let’s not rant about politics, politicians or political figures here, since it will only lead to arguments and (lots of) friction, especially if emotional responses to actuality are involved.

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            • I took it that geo was replying to the question “Whatever goes through the minds of people to do such a wicked thing?” – which to me implied that he thought that those “in power” (i.e. a government; I’m not clear which) *carried out* the bombing.

              I was going to take severe umbrage with that (to put it massively politely), and agree with your suggestion that this isn’t the place. It isn’t the time either.

  23. Heads up. Whilst Hekla Volcano has been quiet in the last weeks there appears some inflation going on. The measuring station “FEDG” is on North-west side of the mountain, whilst “HEKR” is on north-east side. Looking at N-S and E-W plots, it shows rather rapid changes too, this happening mostly on only last three-four weeks or so.


    Does it say something will happen anytime soon? I do not know. At least climbing the montain seen not avdisable.

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  25. Looks like a 7.8 in Iran, nr the Pakastani boarder (M7.8 – 86km ESE of Khash, Iran 2013-04-16 10:44:13 UTC). Hope it hasn’t caused too much damage or fatalities.

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    • Looking at the USGS earthquake map, there seems a movement ongoing, Australian / Indian plate pushing nothwards these days. There is a lot of quakes over magn. 5 following the northern plate margins these last days, and the now 7.8 sitting at a triple junction. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ The latest again on this plate margin, a 5.2 in Indonesia.

      Hopefully, there won’t be more fatalities now. German television news talk about that there could be hundreds in Iran and that the quake was even felt in New Delhi. http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/erdbebeniran108.html

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        • Looking at Google images for area, I suspect that the area may be similar – mix of modern buildings and older ones.

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      • From a geologic perspective, it is quite different. Bam was almost pure strike-slip, this one was reverse faulting.

        (that is, if I read the beach ball correctly)

        Meanwhile, at least it isn’t raining. That stuff from last week scared the bejeevous out of me.

        I don’t drive a (real)truck, but I feel the sentiment.

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        • Makes sense, since the Bam quake happened in a north-south moving fault. The Arab plate is moving north, so it must indeed have been a strike-slip. The area of this quake also shows a couple of volcanoes, which means there is probably a subduction going on, hence the reverse faulting.

          One small (or big) difference is that the epicenter of the Bam quake was right below the city and very shallow, less then 10 km I believe. This one is at least remote, and much deeper.

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          • It probably has resonance dampers in the structure. (well, it should have them.) These are massive gimbaled weights that act to lessen building sway in an earthquake or high winds.

            Since the Burj Khalifa came up. It is a most impressive tall structure, but is still lower that the height of the Laki fissure eruption plume height.

            Its the center building in this scaled comparison image.

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            • Do you mean lava fountains or an eruption plume? Because the picture here shows not a plume, but lava fountains – btw. the ones of Etna have reached up to 2.000 m in 2000/2001 eruptions.

          • But… Etna’s fissure wasn’t quite as long as Laki.

            As for plume height, Wickerpdia puts it at 15 km. Sort of makes ya wonder how Laki’s sulfur load could have had much of an effect on the stratosphere. Carbonyl Sulfide maybe?

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            • Possibly and Wiki calls it a convection eruption column. There were reports in the UK of volcanic ash in addition to SO2. Not sure if the UK also got HF.

  29. @ Islander. I watch Hekla. I Don’t trust her. All the time I have been watching Iceland quakes, never has the Hekla area had such odd movements. Nothing really dramatic but they seem to be occurring sort of around her “base” . It’s as she has a very wide magma chamber skirting round her “roots” and the magma is, in desperation, squeezing into every nook and cranny. Sooner or later something’s got to give.
    ……..Ole Blue Eyes for us ladies and the magnificent MM for the gentlemen here.

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    • I was expecting maybe this time of year (Feb thurgh May) but maybe she has changed pattern again (extending Time) Between Eruptions, to give larger one next time. I suppose she be very, very unpredictable now?

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      • Is the two micro eq’s within the hekla area? 90% at the mo, could move and nothing showning up on the other charts.

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        • these quakes (like the small one today) are not Hekla, they, I think, however reflect the strain field around the “crack bondaries” – Hekla is a crack – about 8+ km long – that has built itself up from “ground level”. And area Hekla sits on end of SIFZ, there it turning direction and spreading – “down” to Torfajökull, Tindfjallajökull, Eykjafjallajökull and Mýrdalsjökull (Katla). I think larger quakes 2000 and 2008 “delayed” Hekla, but it probably be larger instead. I think there are enough “I think” in here so will skip the usual “no expert” title!

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  31. Well we saw above how the quake showed up on the UK seismographs, now look at Gran Canaria
    http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=EOSO_2013-04-16&ver=s&estacion=EOSO&Anio=2013&Mes=04&Dia=16&tipo
    NOW look at El Hierro!!!
    http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2013-04-16&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2013&Mes=04&Dia=16&tipo=1
    Proof positive (as if any of us needed it!) of how greatly the charts for El Hierro are downsized.

    Reply

      • Yes that’s one way of seeing it. I suppose they set the dampening to get information about the rockfalls, or maybe they do not want people to be too much concerned. If you look at the avcan FB, a lot of people get there and discuss. Also there seems to be an ongoing feud between ign and Iter, so maybe it is to keep the data to themselves. Your guess is as good as mine.

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        • Given that you can get the data from other stations, I understood that it was due to the nature of the seismometer and to make it easier to see local events.

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          • You’re right, the data is quite available. If Ign does not give all its data, it’s perfectly understandable, plus we get to learn with them. I think we ( a collective “we”, I’m not yet mad thank you 😉 ) have much progressed in the deciphering of seismograms Rockfall, wet quakes and the like are now our “bread and butter”

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    • I usuall check other charts as well and seems to me there some HT on El Hierro just before the last quake series started, no expert, just observing

      Reply

    • Obviously Iran is hiding the news then as initially there were reports of many dead there and there is no way somewhere further away has so many fatalities without Iran also having many casualties. Very sad for everyone there, I hope they get plenty of support from their own people if they are going to deny to the world there is a problem. 😦

      Reply

      • Or more difficult to get accurate information from a remote sparsly populated mountainous region 😕

        The reports of 40 dead came out too fast; some (Earthquake Report and others) are saying that there is confusion between this earthquake and a previous one in which 40 people died.

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      • KarenZ’s shakemap link shows 1 report of IX (violent) shaking and heavy damage, a bit west of the epicenter. The rest of the region is not showing anything catastrophic, but that may very well be because of broken lines of communication.

        An almost M8-quake in an area where people live in houses built from mud, clay, dredge, straw and other shit cannot have no casualties, that is inconceivable to me. Khash has 55.000 inhabitants, the whole Sistan and Baluchestan Province about 2.4 million. It doesn’t add up.

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        • After reading up on the EQ-report messages I think I might have been too firm in my statement. Let’s hope the depth is indeed deep and the location is indeed so remote and that the Iranian reports so far are indeed true, but I’m still somewhat skeptical of the ‘no’ or ‘one’ fatality reports.

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          • I am a follower of the Black Swan idea. (something I have yammered on about ad nauseam)

            Basically, a Black Swan is something that is considered highly improbable, and that probability is usually determined by a Gaussian or similar probability distribution with short tails. After the highly unlikely occurs, by Talebs definition, it is rationalized away “if only we had known about (insert reason)”.

            One less observed thing about Black Swans, is that they work both ways. According to the USGS PAGER site, and event of this type will cause between 100 to 1000 deaths, 33% of the time. Pager takes into account the MMI rating, the distances and composition of population centers, and the type of terrain involved. Some terrain amplify the shaking, other terrain minimizes it. One of the amplifying terrains are basins. These tend to act as low pass filters and attenuate the higher frequencies.

            Anyway, here are the PAGER calculations of the quake. (provided I got the right one)

            http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000g7x7#pager

            Reply

      • Iran has a rocky, mountainous soil, while the hard hit Pakistan region is built on a dry lake. This explains the difference in deaths for me. The first reports were also way to soon. After an earthquake, certainly in a remote area, it normally takes several hours before there is a reliable report.

        Reply

        • Yes the quake is deep, but the construction is really bad over there. I remember the Bam quake, and all the houses, which are built with adobe collapsed. I only hope for the people over there that he quake was deep enough not to cause too much damage.

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          • Checking out Google Satellite, there are small villages near the epicentre and the buildings seem to be made of local stone / mud (i.e. they blend into the surrounding landscape). They would be very lucky if they escaped with a low death / damage toll.

            Reply

        • From BBC news website.
          “Tuesday’s earthquake was about 180 times stronger in energy release than a 6.3-magnitude quake that struck on 10 April near the nuclear plant at Bushehr in south-western Iran. That quake killed at least 37 people and wounded 850.”
          http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22168202

          Reading that report I find it impossible to believe there were not serious casualties and sadly perhaps many dead, despite it being a sparsely populated area. I REALLY hope I am wrong.

          Reply

          • The depth at 80 km makes a huge difference compared to the 15 km listed in some media. Also the area is really sparsely populated, with the first sizeable city being 85 km away from the epicenter.

            Combined with rocky soil instead of sediment this can make a huge difference. Just compare it to the Christchurch quake to see the difference, which was a M6.3 at 5km depth, 10 km distance on relatively soft soil.

            Reply

            • Thanks for that information El Nathan, I am learning about quakes as well as volcanoes on this site and that is great! I remember reading that houses built on reclaimed land when subject to a big quake are severely affected so a similar thing in Pakistan then with the sediment. I didn’t know that rocky areas were less affected.

    • Haven’t been many aftershocks reported as yet. Only one on USGS:

      4.1M 117km E of Khash, Iran 2013-04-16 13:54:01 28.172°N 62.407°E 65.2km

      Reply

  34. Two more small quakes close to Hekla. One may perhaps be a ghost I am not sure but it was 7 minutes after the first.
    uesday
    16.04.2013 17:36:45 63.958 -20.008 7.2 km 0.2 90.01 15.1 km SE of Árnes
    Tuesday
    16.04.2013 17:29:38 63.957 -20.007 7.6 km 1.0 90.01 15.2 km SE of Árnes

    Reply

  35. I posted this on the eruptions blog, and figured I’d transcribe it here – this is regarding Popocatepetl.

    I’m curious about volcanoes that have history of plinian eruptions as well as strombolian eruptions. Have any volcanoes with history of this style of activity ever transitioned from strombolian eruptions to larger eruptive styles in the same cycle of activity?

    I’m under the assumption that the reason a volcano like Popocatepetl has been “burping” with strombolian eruptions for almost a year is due to the lack of overall energy to create a large scale eruption combined with a weak plug that allows for frequent eruptions. On the other hand, I’m not a volcanologist or geologist and I can see another possible scenario for what is going on.

    I would think the other scenario would be that instead of a weak plug and low energy, it could be a relatively strong plug, and the highly pressurized magma chamber is able to force some emissions through every once in a while due to the huge volume of pressure that’s been built up.

    Reply

  38. OT: Non-specific yammer.

    The sense of smell is closely tied to the evocation of memories. Today, I experienced this first hand. While traveling on a backroad, I ran across the aroma of freshly cut hay. Instantly my mind was transported back to my grand dads farm and the hot hours that my cousins and I spent loading bales of hay. The smell of hay eventually became that of freshly caught catfish. Until that moment, I had not connected just how close those two aromas were. We aren’t talking the rank, been laying dead overnight fish smell, just fresh catfish, right off the bottom of the pond. Eventually those smells were miles behind me and out of mind. As I approached Defuniak Springs, a new smell greeted my nose. Old house fire. There is a certain pervasive aroma from a house fire. If you have been in or around one, you know the smell. As an ex volunteer fire-fighter, I have a Pavlovian response to the smell that generates a surge of adrenalin. It’s pretty cool, but it makes you fidgety.

    Like I said… smell evokes memories. One that came to mind was the supply line incident.

    Our county departments use 5″ supply lines when they “tag” a hydrant. The truck pulls up, a firefighter gets off, lifts the hydrassist valve off the bracket (which is attached to the hose), makes a half turn around the hydrant and puts his foot against it to hold it in place. The driver then motors down to the scene and attached the other end of the hose to the truck. The speed that he drives determines how straight the lay will be. If you go too fast, you run the risk of snatching the hose around the hydrant and taking out the guy holding it in place, or damaging the hose couplings when they hit the pavement.

    One of our drivers was out with his lieutenant on drivers training when they got a call from the station chief who wanted to know what the @#$%@$ they were doing. It seems that the hydrassist valve had fallen off it’s bracket and they had just laid the straitest prettiest 1000 foot supply line run you had ever seen… at about 45 mph.

    We had to muster up a crew and go flake the line back onto the truck. We were pissed, but it was funnier than hell. We never let him live that one down. About the only damage was to the hydrassist valve itself… and the nerves of the drivers who were following behind as this gigantic 5″ diameter yellow snake fed off the back of the truck.

    BTW: That is one of the reasons the sign says to stay 300 feet back from the vehicle. So you don’t get tangled up in mishaps like that, or so you don’t hit anyone falling of the truck.

    We actually dumped two guys out the back of the rescue squad on one call, the Ford 460 has an obscene amount of torque. Either they weren’t buckled in properly or something failed. When the driver let out on the clutch the doors opened up and these two fell out the back… with their bottles on. (I think the county is still paying for the injuries)

    I have driven this particular squad and can attest to the power of that engine. I was alone at the station, having missed the main units going out. They radioed back that they needed the extrication gear which was on the squad and to head to the scene. One side of the interstate was fully shut down and I was instructed to cross over and use that side… and to get there as quickly as possible so they could get the patient out of the car.

    I tell you, that squad could boogie. At 85 mph is where my nerves gave out and common sense took over. At speed, it kept wanting to float the front end. The drag from the box on back kept wanting to lift it. But, thats still the quickest that I ever got to the state line. (yes, the patient lived, thanks to the extrication crew and EMS)

    As a passenger in this same unit, I nearly jumped into the drivers lap. Some idiot had topped off the tank with diesel and it was blowing fireballs out the exhaust that would detonate about 4 feet from the exhaust pipe. It first did this under an overpass so the echo was quite strong. Scared the shit out of me… almost literally.

    Yes, I do miss being a firefighter. But the organizational structure of the county is way too politicized for me.

    Reply

  39. if I get a smell of something burned, I know straight away what it is, if bush I scan the horizon to find out where and of course the adrenalin kicks in, these days I have to sit down and catch my breath and tell myself settle girl nothing to worry about

    Reply

    • Interesting that you both were talking about that. I just got the call-I report for flight training on May 15th. I get current, get carded and will be a DC-7 airtanker co-pilot again. Base , probably Medford ,Or. No more clients, vendors, or suppliers. The horn,
      bell or siren goes off.,load and go… The sound and fury of a fully loaded DC7 at takeoff.. This is T-66 my second most amount of time in a 7 is in her. Fox Field,
      Lancaster Ca. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YcmwwE7kcU
      Lord I’ve missed that… It gets in your blood..
      This is an State of Oregon contract, with a California option-I hear, BTW Calfire is great to work with-they actually want to put the fire out….

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  40. Good morning all, Etna is back to strombolian/vulcanian activity.
    oops, should have done a screenshot… now it has disappeared again.

    Reply

  43. Thank you Michael for your heads up. This of course sent me trawling the net for more info about a Volcano I knew nothing about. Here’s a little of my catch…….. Firstly Scientific info . details about past eruptions and it would seem this quake swarm would be worrying to the inhabitants.
    http://staff.aist.go.jp/a.tomiya/miyakeE.html
    Secondly a Human view of an amazing community living on the edge of a lethal time bomb.. This Island is not a place you would expect to find “happy dancing natives” WRONG!
    http://all-that-is-interesting.com/the-town-where-everyone-wears-a-gas-mask
    Hats off to the Japanese Tourism industry and government bodies who have, like Iceland and other Volcanic areas, utilised the danger, the beauty and the power and turned potential disaster into a lucrative industry for the locals. Authorities of El Hierro take note!
    Here is the most brilliant piece of advertising copy ever. It turns around the images and real threat of death and destruction and encourages would be holidaymakers that this is the ideal place for a Vacation of all vacations. It looks beautiful…….. Please read all 3 sections……
    http://tokyo.digi-joho.com/tokyo-islands/miyakejima-1.html

    Reply

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