Countdown to Hekla


It has been a long time since I wrote about Hekla. But, I guess nobody is surprised at what I am about to write.

Everyone with a genuine interest in volcanoes have their favorite volcano. As many in here know Hekla is my favorite volcano to bang my head against. Few volcanoes are as intricate as Hekla, and few have such a short run up before an eruption as Hekla. Normal run up time to an eruption is between 30 – 80 minutes from the first sign.

This time around has been different. But let us first recapitulate what has happened since the last eruption. For those who are curious about how Hekla works I would like to recommend my own post about her innards:


In 2004 Hekla had received as much new magma as was discharged during the 2000 eruption and sometime during late 2008 to early 2009 that figure had doubled. After that the inflation stagnated and no real uplift was measured at the GPS-stations with the exception of what was most likely magma moving between the different magma chambers.

During the summer of 2011 earthquakes was registered and a public safety alert was issued stating that Hekla was close to erupting. From then on Hekla has had earthquakes ranging from miniscule to 2M+ without erupting. For those who are not familiar with Hekla one should notice that she normally is aseismic, or in other words, that she does not have a lot of earthquakes.

From 2010 and onwards Hekla started to show a new feature that I dubbed “transients”. The transients are sudden rapid drops in the strain measured at the borehole strainmeters. These transients have only been seen before as Hekla erupted. They had before 2010 never been seen without an eruption occurring. A transient is in short happening as the mountain strains to open up.


On the 13th of March and onwards Hekla had a swarm of earthquakes and once again transients were noticed on the strain-meters. There was also harmonic tremor measured indicating rapid movement of magma. This caused IMO to issue a public safety warning, and the London VAAC issued a flight code warning Orange. This followed the exact pattern of how all the previously instrumentally monitored eruptions had started so far.

As we all know nothing happened in the end. We can now safely say that we know even less than we did before about how Hekla acts before an eruption. Because now we have to figure out why Hekla did not erupt when she should have. I guess someone will have a research career out of it in the end.


After this Hekla entered into a new phase never seen before, this time a phase of very rapid and unbroken inflation started. What happened is most likely that the earthquake swarm removed blockages inside the deep feeder tubes of Hekla enabling fresh magma to flow into the volcanic system.

The rate of inflation varies a lot depending on where the GPS station is placed. The big exception is Mjóaskard situated to the west of Hekla. It has only suffered an uplift of 5mm in the last 5 weeks. For the other stations the rate of inflation is between 15mm in Hestáalda and 32mm at ISAK. Average uplift is 16mm, and 21mm if MJSK is not counted. This type of rapid inflation has so far never been measured at Hekla.

During the entire inflation phase there have been scattered earthquakes and micro-quakes.

If the current rapid inflation continues there is a very low chance of Hekla not erupting. Yes, we do not know what is happening with Hekla now since we have never seen this type of behavior. But Hekla is constructed in such a way that she can’t take a huge increase in pressure without erupting.

Image by GeoLurking based on data by the University of Iceland and Professor Sigrún Hréinsdóttir. All areas are showing uplift on this image covering the period from 4th of April up untill now. The area with the highest uplift are due north of Hekla.

Image by GeoLurking based on data by the University of Iceland and Professor Sigrún Hréinsdóttir. All areas are showing uplift on this image covering the period from 4th of April up untill now. The area with the highest uplift are due north of Hekla.

If the inflation continues at the current rate Hekla will erupt. When? Well I am not going to make any bets, but any time from 1 hour from when you read this to 4 weeks. Remember that 4 weeks into the future the combined uplift in 2 months will have exceeded 50mm at many GPS stations. As seen on the image above the largest uplift is happening on the northern slopes. This is a known site for one of Heklas primary magma chambers. The area to the northeast are not showing correctly, there is uplift there too, but due to lack of a GPS station there the model get scewed.


Image courtesy of the University of Reykjavik and Professor Sigrún Hréinsdóttir.

I personally would not at any cost get closer to Hekla then 10 km from now on. And then I would stay in the car on the road. If you are closer the chance of you surviving is not good and 5 km the chance of you surviving the initial blast is pretty much nill.

What will the eruption be like? Here I will be guessing since Hekla has changed her behavior compared to the last eruptions. I would say that Hekla has remobilized old evolved magma during all that moving of magma, and this latest inflation phase seems to fill up a lot of old magma chambers. This causes me to fear a rather explosive start of the eruption. I would also say that there is quite a high likelihood of there being more lava erupted then was seen during the last 3 eruptions. I will hedge my bet by saying that I would expect it to be anything between a VEI2 and a VEI4 on the volcanic explosivity index, and that Hekla will effuse between 0.1 to 2 cubic kilometers of lava. Based on the GPS plot above my best judgement is that the eruption will start at the top of Hekla proper and then open up the fissure both to the south, but mainly to the north. Most probably the Hekla fissure will open over all of Hekla proper with a fissure extending to the Northeast.

For those who wish to follow the eruption, here is the Hekluvöktun page:



541 thoughts on “Countdown to Hekla

  1. Many thanks for the info, Carl. I’ll be honest, I’m very excited to see Hekla go since I wasn’t interested in volcanoes the last time she erupted.

  2. I hope to be able to update this post soon with a plot or two of the current uplift so things will be clearer for everyone.

    • Every time you mention nautical charts, I get pissed off. I don’t have access to nav charts anymore and know perfectly well just how cool their resolution is. At one time I had a set of digital charts but can only find the PG disk.

  3. Exciting perspectives here for Hekla. I don’t remember what it was like when it last erupted, so I’m curious about how this one will look with so many webcams and locals reporting live what is going on – like it happens with Etna – , it is so interesting to learn from eye witnesses about the roaring sounds and the magnificent display of fireworks.
    My only hope is that it follows Etna in the way it goes off almost harmless to people, even though, after Eyjafjallajökull, I have started to get more concerned about Icelandic volcanoes – Hekla being the meanest of them all (well, let’s not talk about Katla for now).
    Let us keep an eye and pray that this would go beautiful and harmless.
    And Irpsit, no hiking from now on, please!
    Thanks , Carl le Strange!

    • One should remember that Etna’s 10 last years have not gotten up to more then a medium VEI2… And here we will see that in a day or two. Or even up to a large VEI4 in a few days. The Icelandic ones are so much bigger then the others we see.
      If we really had been able to see Grimsvötns 2011 eruption (probably a small VEI5) we would have crapt ourselves.
      But the Icelanders know how to behave, and IMO and Almannavarnir are the best on the planet in volcano mitigation.

      • Yes, I really admire the Icelanders for how they calmly (well perhaps they don’t feel that way inside?) and orderly follow any emergency instructions they are given. I am sure their stoicism and obedience to instructions has saved very many lives in past eruptions.

        • One should remember that they also have a lot of experience with their big brutes. On average on of them go boom every 3,5 years.
          And to top it off they have by far the worlds best volcanologists to help them. So they are scientific, mitigative, and populationwhise world champions on dealing with honking huge volcanoes.
          They have also learned to A) not live on the slopes of them, and B) how to run like hell when needed.

          The sheep are less brilliant though.

      • 🙂 ohh Carl I missed your style of writting!

        But I saw grimsvotn 2011 eruption and I did not crap myself 😀 But it was rather scary and big compared to Eyjafjallajokull. But very short living.

  4. As requested… sort of.

    Re-Digitizing the GPS has the hazard of introducing errors into the dataset… so take it with a grain of salt.

    This is the apparent uplift from 4 April to 28 April. Even with that, I didn’t expect such a large uplift 13 km north of Hekla.

    The entire plot shows uplift, the coloration indicates how much. The scale is in mm. I’m not the one who can make a logical interpretation of this, expect commentary on it as follow ons to this by people more knowlegable than I.

    THE DATA FOR THIS PLOT WAS DERIVED FROM GPS DATA published by Sigrún Hreinsdóttir. For further information, see

    About the plot. This is a polysheet fit to the data for stations HEKR, FEDG, NORS, GLER, MJSK, HESA, ISAK, HAUD. It IS NOT KRIGGED data. Just a polysheet. Think of a sheet of rubber deformed so that it passed through the values presented at each station location.

    • And due to the lack of a GPS to the NE there is a lack of inflation showing there.
      There is inflation there, you bet, but due to no data it shows here as almost no inflation.

    • The inflation in the North of the plot to the north of the Hekla system is interesting. A quick look on Google Maps seems to show some what could be old volcanoes nearby

  5. There is a lot of snow cover on Hekla. I believe that, even if it erupts only effusively (albeit not likely) I would consider the danger of interaction between ice and lava, just like we’ve observed in Etna lately. Snow driven p-flows?

    • No snowdriven p-flows. Way to much Oompf in Hekla for that. What goes up stays going up for at least 20 km…
      We are talking about a plinian eruption here.

    • As Carl noted, when she goes, she like to go high.

      Most of the teprha geochemistry sites that I can find for Hekla, are in Europe and the UK. (yeah, I know it’s part of Europe… sort of)

      The snow will likely help to mitigate the SO2 by converting it to sulphate early… that is unless that sulphate is then carried the rest of the way up past the tropopause.

      That probably won’t set to well with what some Russian Scientista are saying about the upcoming cooling phase that they are predicting based on solar activity:

      Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: “we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years”

      Now… for the loon minded. Just prior to each re-glaciation, there is a spike in CO2 levels. And right now, we are at a peak. (Just ask Al)

      • When I was at school 48 years ago we were told that by now the earth would be starting to go into an ice age. Now they say the earth is warming up! I am afraid that between them scientists have badly dented even the little bit of belief I had in them to get things right.

        • Nah, you should see it the other way. See it as the strength of science. When new data comes into light the paradigm of science will change. It is actually a victory of science.

          • Fine if it is new true data. But is it? And why can scientists seldom admit they might have got it wrong? I have never heard of one say they were wrong anyway. Perhaps I don’t read enough science nowadays. 😀

        • Well, don’t get your hopes up. The IPCC is having an issue with the actual temps falling below what they predicted… even showing a declining trend over the last 15 or so years.

          One observer over at WUWT thinks he may have seen a tell tale indicator of the onset of another La Nina. He’s not certain, but that cold finger of water in the East Pacific showed up just before the last one.

          • Actually the IPCC is not having a problem with anything.
            So far it is within the span and normal deviation. It is warmer, but not with much. But then we have a solar output minimum, and to be quite honest, we are also riding into what should have been onset of a small iceage. So far the solar minimum and the small little iceage is holding back the warming effects.
            One should read the IPCC and not what the Koch brothers pay to have writen by their bribed scientists.

            For thos who do not know. Koch are two brothers that are richer then God who is spending a billion dollars every year on proving that global warming does not exist. Only thing they have really proved is that if you spend enough money people will believe you. Did I mention that the Kochs are into oil…?

            • Uhm, there is a lot of evidence for that out there. And loads of it have been written by journalists allready.

              Regarding George Soros, he only made money on idiots who had run the pound into the ground allready. For instance the swedish crown back then was seriously over-rated and was kept up by moroons who just felt that we should have a strong currency. In the end we had a 500 percent interest rate for a week before we let the crown slide. 20 years later we are literaly having the best economy on the planet. I think I will send a bunch of flowers to George for making the idiots see the light.

              Could we please keep this civil without references to peoples backgrounds and so on.

      • What? And have another geophysicist pissed off at me? No thanks.

        SLU chided me for my interpretation of the seismicity at New Madrid, and Nemisio had a cow about the El Hierro GPS data.

        • The icelandic volcanologists are not as easily pissed off. 🙂
          She has no resemblance with Nemesio at all…

          “Fluoride analysis. Ash from previous Hekla eruptions has often been the cause of fluorosis in grazing animals. However, during this time of the year most domestic animals are kept indoors, so fluorosis is not expected to become a problem. Freshly fallen ash was measured for soluble fluoride ions (F-). The result was 800-900 mg F/kg. Snow melted by the ash contained about 2,200 mg/l (ppm) of fluoride.”

          Only thing I have found about the fluorine content. This is from 2000 eruption.

          Nasa also hold extensive data from 2000 eruption since they flew through the ash column with a DC8 by accident. They have complete gas data at 13000 meters height.

          Mark Shoeberl at NASA, Arlin Krueger and Michael Fromm (also Nasa) would have the data for you. I have emails for them, but I do not know if they are still vallid.

          • Nasa also hold extensive data from 2000 eruption since they flew through the ash column with a DC8 by accident. They have complete gas data at 13000 meters height.

            NASA…. yeah, that’s about their speed. They probably have pristine samples of ash that they had to scrape off the compressor blades.

            • Well, they do have the data you wished for.

              And it is not entirely unlikely that they can point you to where the data was published.

  6. Uhm… this is not good.
    If ya’ll bend your heads backwards in time you will remember that during the weeks before Eyja erupted pretty much every GPS in Iceland started to move?
    Same seems to be happening now. I found a station 50 km away from ISAK to the north that is uplifting.

    • BUDH is close to the extension of the fissure of Hekla, it is slightly to the west of that fissure. Here is one even further away on the fissure, still on the left side. STKA is inbetween to the south of Vatnajökull and Hofsjökull.

      And GRVA is almost between Langjökull and Hofsjökull… Same there.

  7. I just recognized that many here have not really grasped the size of the Icelandic eruptions. Even though some saw Eyja who are here.

    Here is a short guide to what to expect!

    Imagine that you are out running for an hour. You are a pretty good runner. You ran eight kilometers. Those eight kilometers is the fissure that opens up during a Hekla eruption. It opens in about one minute.
    If you are one kilometre away the initial schockwave will pulverise the bones in your body and rip your flesh apart, your skull will explode from the sonic boom, a few seconds later all that you where will be carbon dust in the air.
    15 minutes after onset of the eruption a mushoom cloud 35 km high will loom in the sky. Inside the mushroom cloud there will be fire curtains throwing molten lava continously 800 to 1500 meters straight up for the entire 8 km stretch.
    A day or so later the eruption will change and be less explosive, now you will see long lavaflows. They will be so long that if placed on Etna they would reach into Catanias harbour. About now sheep are starting to drop dead from fluoridosis and gas poisoning.
    Now it is time to look for new vents forming. It is not uncommon. If you are lucky it will just last a couple of weeks.

    Remember, this is a fairly standard eruption. A large VEI3 to a small VEI4. A week long walk in the park for Hekla. 100 years of continous Etna activity.

    It is truly the greatest show on earth.

    • Ahh… the spookshow.

      Hekla can be a bit larger than that. VEI-5 is within the system’s capability. The following GVP listed events were all VEI-5

      5150 BC Hekla 5 tephra, 4110 BC ±100 Hekla Ö teprha, 2310 BC ±20 Hekla 4 tephra, 1100 BC ±50 Hekla 3 tephra, 1104 AD ±5 Hekla 1 tephra.

      According to , the chemical makeup of any eruption depends on how long the repose time was. Likely being more silica rich for the longer duration wait time.

      My inclination, based on what I have read here and elsewhere, is that the multiple chambers of Hekla may have unique characteristics specific to themselves. I don’t have any supporting data for that, but if one chamber has a noisy run-up before venting, that doesn’t mean that another chamber would necessarily be the same. Following that line of thinking, the chemical make-up of each chamber may be quite different than the other chambers. Just how noisy one is would depend on how much residual heat is there and the state of the rock in and around it.

      Again, not a geologist. Just some guy that likes to plot stuff.

      BTW, most of those VEI-5s that I listed can be found in sample sites in Europe.

    • Not good if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. But would a fissure eruption produce a large ash plume? or is there more to it?

      • When you had Laki erupting those fire fountains you had Grimsvötn whack out a simultaneaous VEI-6. Add to that Thordarhyrna bopping a VEI-4, and a couple of VEI-2s down the line from other volcanoes like Geirvörtur… Hm, well, I would feel uncomfortable around a regional fissure eruption caused by a large central volcano.

  8. Before Hekla erupts…I really want to repost my answer to Alan’s riddle here……..And thank you carl for a very concise post with facts and other relevant details. I too am more than concerned about Hekla’s power. However I have great faith in the Icelandic organisations and the strength of her people.
    Alan’s riddle (My head is hurting now!)…another go…..
    Cryptomelane From the Greek for hidden and black.
    It is a potassium manganese oxide mineral with formula K(Mn4+,Mn2+)8O16.
    Found at the Ojuela mine, Mapimi, Druango, Mexico and also Chindwara, India .
    Related to other manganese Oxides such as chalcophanite & manganite

    • I am very leeward of what is coming. I can’t dig into a peat bog without finding Hekla ashes.

      You should see the church books around here from when Laki erupted. Mortality rate was huge.

      I will put you plot in the post tomorrow. Now I am too tired to edit.

      • What color and texture does this ash have? Will dig a hole tomorrow 😉

        Just recently found a quick way to embed youtube videos into a post: On youtube, click on Share below the video, then Embed, copy the code, update the post and wordpress will convert and embed it automatically.

        • Ah, that simple…
          If you wish you can put it in instead of the image of yours that I used… 🙂

          Where do you live? Best places for Hekla ash layers in bogs are in Norway, northern Sweden and Northern Scottland.
          The colours you can see in the ashy Irpsit posts.

    • Seems that magma comes to Hekla from the southeast.

      This fits well with my theory that the hotspot at depth divides into a branch that feeds the 6 volcanoes in south Iceland (Katla, Eyja, Torfa, Tindfjalla, Vatnsfjoll and Hekla). Hekla magma seems to come from the center of that whole region,

      • In 1150 and 1177 Katla erupted after 200 years of silence. And these eruptions were VEI2 and VEI3. This is another proof that long sleeping volcanoes do not have to erupt violently. Likewise, volcanoes that did erupt recently, can erupt shortly after with a very big eruption, like Grimsvotn in 2011.

        I guess this can apply for Hekla too. I think trusting the GPS is the most reliable (if there is such thing) indicator of the intensity of a future eruption.

  9. Thank you chryphia and Lurking for your plots. The fact that there isn’t a very dense collection right under Hekla now could show the magma has already filled up any spaces. About The white collection, would I be right in thinking that is right of the border of Hekla’s magma chamber and the SISZ or am I totally disorientated?

    • I missed this on Friday… but found it on you tube. This may help to understand how BIG these volcanoes are and what they are capable of producing. Food for thought!

        • Bardarbunga, Grimsvotn and Oraefajokull have done a VEI6.

          Hekla largest Holocene eruption was also likely a VEI6.
          Most other big Hekla eruptions, as well as the Katla big ones, or askja, were only VEI5.
          Eyjafjalljokull, most Katla eruptions, and last Grimsvotn were all good VEI4.
          Most Hekla eruptions are VEI4 or VEI3.

          • I got the impression the programme was more into “What Icelandic ash can do for you” rather than “How big is a big eruption” . Plenty missing I agree. I think if they had added those the UK doomsday preppers would be emigrating to Australia very soon 😀

            • I still say the same: people nowadays are a bit of paranoid with this all prepper stuff. Lots of fear. Its good to have resilience but sincerely here in Iceland you do not have to prepare for anything. Unless you live right next to a volcano. If an eruption happens you deal with it. Even a big one can be dealt with, as Icelanders have shown. Do I prepare for a snowstorm here? No. I just check the forecast in case I have to drive. If I drive and I get stuck, then I deal with it. Same for a volcano.

              I think that preppers should do something worthwhile for the world and themselves rather than being thinking all the time about disasters. Its almost like preppers are only a different sort of their cousins the doomers. Both fascinated by disasters perhaps due to a lack of something exciting in their life. It all comes down to simple psychology. Preppers and doomers both suffer from an obsession. Its a waste of energy and focus.

            • I am a bit of a prepper.
              I have a bit of canned food at home, enough to last me two days. And I have firewood.
              I also have candles and matches. Only reason that I have it is so that I wont have to go out if a big enough snowstorm hits, or the electricity goes out.
              It is all the prepping I am ever going to do. Anything more would just be overkill.

              If anything happens that would need more prepping I allready have what I need. My brain…

  10. HI

    This is a summary of Hekla sismicity between 2010 01 01 and 2013 03 18. Coulour of the dots is roughly time dependant.
    I’ll do better tomorrow. Please do not hesitate to suggest views.

    • Thanks dfm. Again it shows what appears to be very littleunderneath the volcano itself. There is a small series of quakes near the surface right under Hekla proper. When on field work in the past I found often what is expected but is not observed or recorded is often the lead to discovery.

      • The blank space is where the magma chambers are. The quake stack under Hekla proper are the only real Hekla quakes in this set. The quakes outside belong mostly to other systems or just to Iceland in general. The interessting thing is that the quake stack is near identical to the one that happened in 2000 before the start of the eruption.

  11. Carl, thanks for your excellent post on Hekla! Enjoyed catching up on her. Every so often I check the web cams and watch in case she explodes while I am watching. Never does. She’s playing a waiting game with me. She’ll go the moment I switch off and go to bed! It’s the eruption we’ve all been waiting for, though I know we all worry about the folks in Iceland and hope she doesn’t cause them too much suffering. Thank you also to DFM, Chryphia, and Geolurking for the additional informational diagrams. Oh, the anticipation….

    • So let me see…if I have a lamb Rogan Josh (insert lamb dishes of your choice) using one of these, do I then get to glow in the dark? Interesting…. 🙂

    • For a while, I did own a few shares of GTC Biotherapeutics. They had goats that produced insulin in their milk. The stock never did anything of note… I held on to the shares just so I could start a conversation by saying I owned goats. I eventually sold the shares and bought a set of tires for my truck. I think I made upwards of $5 on the stock. The tires seem to have been a better investment, I’ve done about 500 service calls with them.

      As for the glow in the dark sheep. They claim that there was no specific reason to make them glow in the dark… but it does make inroads in getting them to do something useful, like GTC’s goats, in the production of medicine. (BTW, you need UV light to get the sheep to glow)

      Now if they can fab a gene for them that makes them grow silk instead of wool…

  12. NO SPECIFIC REASON. Just something I was fiddling around with before my wife called me to supper… where I discovered that the Pekingese doesn’t catch noodles so well. They sort of go “splat” on his face and then he realizes that someone actually tossed him some of the food he was begging for. The other dog actually comes up to meet the noodle before it has a chance to get away. I’ve actually seen that one stalk and kill flies.

    All data from

    x=SiO2 y=Na2O+K2O

      • I think I ran a set for all 1104 samples. The dominate signature (by far) was Rhyolite. Granted, it could be natural filtering for Rhyolite due to the distance of the tephra samples… Rhyolite is usually from the more energetic degassing and gets lofted higher and harder, and travels further. (In part due to the fine particles from the fracturing of the magma shards on the way up)

  13. Now it is time to get to bed before the eagles get up and start catching the cats.

    Nature is fun. Humans produce the perfect breading grounds for pidgeons and gulls by creating a lot of food residues in the cities.
    Here the infestation of pidgeins, gulls and mini-crows got so bad since nobody hunted them (illegal in the city) that the large eagles moved in and started to munch on them. And the eagles are a protected species. Nobodoy complained about them infestous birds being eaten, after all they poop on you. Okay, the eagles poop too, but they are far fewer. And it is kind of cooler to be pooped on by an eagle then a pidgeon.
    Problem was that idiots keep on putting out their cats at night so that their cats can be run over by cars. Why people find this to be a good idea is beyond me. The average life expectancy of a an outdoorcy city cat is 2 years due to cars.
    Now add the eagles. Little kitty cat is no match for a top predator like a King Eagle. So now and then in the morning you see a King Eagle majestically swoop by with a very disgruntled cat in its claws.
    I blame people, people blame the Eagles, and the Eagles crap on their opinion.

    200 meters from where I live there is a football field. It was untill 4 years ago home to the worlds best female football team, then Martha moved away. The field is surrounded by light-pylons. Ontop of one of them a pair of King Eagles are hatching Prince and Princess Eagles. It is a majestic sight to see them big ass predator birds swoop by in the middle of the city. The cats are not as easily impressed as I am.

    Good night!

    P.S. No cars was damaged in this narrative. D.S.

    • I was listening to the radio last week. Over in the next county, they are widening a road. This is pretty cool since I use it a lot to bypass Gulf Breeze. Gulf Breeze’s major industry is producing traffic tickets and selling bait and tourist supplies… such as floaty things for drifting out to sea on.

      This roadway construction had a delay. Three times the contractor had to contact the game and wildlife commission in order to get permission to remove an Osprey nest from the top of it’s crane. I think they have since resorted to parking the crane with the boom down in order to make it a less optimal nexting platform.

    • Carl that story reminds me of back when the old Wenatchee Washington, tanker base was operative, there Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife office next to the Fire Cache..
      Well, being interested in wildlife and one of the pilots was an old friend, I’d spend time over there. Well, Wenatchee has odd vibes, strange things happen, Supposed UFO hotspot, bigfoot and all that. Seems this upper crust neighborhood (one that sits upwind and higher than all the Apple orchards and the attendant pesticide spraying ) It was missing cats. Not only
      outdoor night cats, but cats on ledges, patios open windows..
      Mystery. Spooky.X-files. Ok,not X-files. That sort of thing. my friend, whom I shall Earl, was
      called to investigate. Local news media speculation-Satanic Cults! no kidding. Earl was
      thinking maybe Cougar, Coyote, but there ain’t no flying Coyotes. How does the perp snatch
      kitty cats from an open window. Well they found the perp- an old Grey owl who made her home in a old Apple shed- surrounded by cat skeletons.. So, Earl and his cohort catch her,
      take her to the west side of the State up by Glacier Peak. they use a pickup truck and let her
      loose free to roam the mountains.
      She almost beat them home… So when cats start disappearing again-the next week, here the find her-with fresh cat skeletons, in the same shed. Alllliiight, into the WDFW’s Cessna they put her take her across the Sound to the Olympic mtns. The let her go, again. At least the Cessna 172 could out run her. Two weeks later the cat population thinner,(it was getting thinner, btw.) she came back. This time Earl, just for grins, checked the shed .Now they decided
      to take her to a game farm/petting zoo near Squim, Wa. on the north coast of the Olympic peninsula.. She had all the mice, and hamburger she could eat, the cat population of Wenatchee was safe….
      I keep my pets indoors at night, too.

    • We could do with the occasional fly over here. Outdoor moggies are rife and very streetwise! They also know a good seed bed on which to toilet themselves. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

  14. Carl, nice article. However I disagree when you say “if Hekla keeps this pace of inflation, then it is very unlikely that it does not erupt”. Well, we do know that Hekla already had LONG periods of sleep, more than 250 years, and then erupting very violently.

    What does happen before such periods? No one knows. But there is the change that Hekla does inflate on and off, just like many other volcanoes, before such big eruptions.

    We only know of Hekla behavior in terms of these signs, since 1947. In other ocasions, apparently there were no *detected* earthquakes prior to the devastating eruptions. But swarms of up to M2.5 quakes could have occurred and no one would have known.

    Second interesting point: you said that on 13 March Hekla did a transient, a swarm, tremor and did not erupt. Was that 2010? If this is the case, then Hekla, did its aborted eruption just a few days before Eyjafjallajokull went off. I found that a startling coincidence, especially when in 2011 did another very close call (which prompt the IMO to declare risk of eruption) in July 2011, just a few days away from both the Katla and Hamarinn subglacial events.

    Yes, these are 2 close-up calls and coincidences (within a few days) to other volcanic events in other volcanoes in the neighbourhood. I found that VERY interesting.

    I do completely agree with your “The chance of you surviving is not good and 5 km the chance of you surviving the initial blast is pretty much nill.” That’s why I did not hike Hekla earlier this month 😉 my colleagues did and heard a loud mysterious blast when doing it. Add that to your “Hekla being very close” collection of signs.

    Finally, Hekla does erupt in a (very good) correlation between intensity of eruption and period since last eruption. This leads me to guess an eruption of a large VEI3 / weak VEI4 style. A release of 0.1 km3 tephra and 0.4 km3 lava. probably lasting from something between 3 to 8 weeks. All of this, if it erupts this year. Because it could remain sleeping for decades, as it often did in the past.

    • No, I was talking about 2013. So no correlation at all with Eyja.
      Also the Hamarinn event was most likely just a geothermal event. I would say that it is just a coincidence.
      But, the always inferred law that a volcano that erupts often does get smaller and smaller eruptions is just a bunch of hoey. History is actually filled with volcanoes that have erupted very often before going off in a very large style. Krakatau is such an example. Grimsvötn another before Laki.

      Hekla is actually another. Note that the eruptions from 1947 onwards have varied quite erraticaly. Yes, the first was the largest of the set. But not really by much compared to 2000.

      Yes, Hekla had perhaps long periods of rest. Problem is that we do not really know. We know about the largest eruptions from Hekla from older times, but nothing on the smaller eruptions. The smaller ones are covered up.
      We should though remember that Hekla is very young. We do not even know how young. But most likely she is only 8000 years old. And we know that the 1947 eruption added 50 meters in height. So, let us say that Hekla is 30 eruptions old. No more. In all likelihood the actual volcano is younger and the first violent eruptions where streight out of the fissure before the volcano proper was produced.
      I am judging from the data we have from previous eruptions. And as such this is a lot of activity. And the fissure is very easily opened since it has erupted so much lately. So, there is no way that she can take prolonged increase in pressure. I stand by my guesstimate. And if I am wrong I am so with a year or two, not decades.

      • Hekla is a young volcano, and a sort of a hybrid of a very big crater row, and a not well defined stratovolcano, which one day will probably go caldera.

        Therefore, yes, I also expect it to have larger eruptions in the future.

        And yes, Grimsvotn did a very big one in 2011, just after a few years of sleep. No one would guess it.

        Sometimes I wonder whether the Tjorsáhraun, which is 8000 years old, was not really the result of the very large eruption that lead to Hekla first and its birth. Because the lava seems to come from that region and is as old. And it is basaltic: first Hekla eruption could have been basaltic and a large volume.

        I also think it is more likely for Hekla to erupt in soon, that not.

        • Actually we spotted that eruption about half a year before it happened… 😉
          I would raise a finger of warning. There is a wopping huge basaltic only volcano just a few kilometres to the east of Hekla that completely dwarfs her, Vatnsfjöll.

  15. Geolurking and Carl: to excite you, about the VEI5 possibility in Hekla, yes it did happen several times in the past. Most likely, judging from the 1947 and 1104 eruptions, after long periods of sleep (100-300 years long).

    But what does that VEI5 implies? Well, guess what, i live 50km away from Hekla. At this distance, Hekla deposited a thick 3cm layer of white ash. This is already compacted over the ages. It should have been thicker probably. In this ash layer, I can occasionally find pieces of pumice. So I would have pieces of hot pumice falling on my head, 50km away from Hekla.

    But this is a rare eruption however. Only a few times (4-6) over the last 5000 years. Or once per 1000 years. Quite unlikely to happen. Much more likely is a fatty VEI4, just like Eyjafjallajokull. Or a VEI3, which is still huge compared to Etna, but minor per volcanic terms.

    • Statistically, a VEI-5 is way beyond unlikely. I’m not trying to fearmonger, but I also believe in the infamous Black Swan.

      Note: “Infamous” only because I don’t seem to be able to shut up about it…

      If you account for the fact that Black Swans do happen, and you plan accordingly, then what would have been a Black Swan to you, is only a Black Swan to those who dismiss the likelihood of it. The problem with that method is that prepping for a Swan can get expensive fast, and those that are the least prepped for it, think you are flipping bonkers for putting more validity to the possibility of it happening.

      In your case, I would have non-perishable food stashed away, along with an ample water supply. That’s what I have here, but in my case, it’s for the wild hair hurricane threat. You know, like that 115 mph 3 hour wind field that went through here with Ivan. There was literally no way into this area via the Interstate Highways or the old US highway. Ivan had cut the bridges. The only route was down 29 from Alabama, and that had to be cleared of debris first. I kept my freezer running with a generator, but after a while, fuel for that becomes a concern.

      Taking a page from my Uncle, I became adept at cooking non-ordinary stuff with the bar-b-que grill. Corn and other canned vegetables. (making a foil packet works great, toss in a dab of butter, fold it over tight and throw it on the back of the grill. By the time your main course is done, so are the vegetables.) I never had to resort to snaring the squirrels. (I couldn’t have anyway, they were spooked away by the storm, and the constant roar of chainsaws kept them at bay)

    • A VEI 3 will do nicely for me thank you. I would not have to sit at my PC (We would still have power) worrying about our Icelandic friends and guarding the poor quantity of fresh food growing undercover on my allotment. Also facemasks play havoc with my hairdo.

  16. Thank you, Carl for a thought-provoking post.

    The $64 million question is what disaster planning have governments in the northern hemisphere done to prepare for this? For example, no / reduced transportation or power in the UK for a fairly short period would lead to serious food shortages (we rely very heavily on imports) and probably fatalities, especially if a large Icelandic eruption happened in winter.

    • Depends entirely on the country in question. Scandinavian countries would just shrug it off. The others I do not really know about. I just know we would get stuck with the bill for it. As usual.
      But, normaly countries survive more then one would think possible. England was in no better condition when WWII broke out, and still England survived. Remember that almost all food arrive via ship, and those wont be affected.

      • I guess the real issue is that nearly everything we do here relies on electricity supplies which would be affected by the “wrong type” of ash. No electricity = no computers, no heating (gas supplies rely on electricity) and no / reduced internal transportation. Food may get to the ports but what then? It might not be pretty.

        • (Diana should not hold liquid in her mouth at the end of this)

          It would take copious amounts of electrostatic ash to do that.
          Remember that the same electric wires are constructed to take a lot of beating during a normal thunderstorm.
          In a worst case scenario you would be out of electricity for 24 hours before most of the system was up and running again.
          The worst case scenario I am talking about is though not based on ash per see, it is based on projections made for a once in a 1000 year thunderstorm. We used to do those projections all the time when I worked in the business.

          People tend to forget how resilient a society is. We have survived rather spectacular things, and we still would if needs be. We would probably not like it though.

          Take for instance Laki. The death rate today would have been much lower then back then due to the fact that we today know much more about how to protect ourselves against sulphuric gasses. Even a thick gause mask that is wet gives enough protection. And ontop of that we are outdoors a lot less nowadays.
          Also international commerce makes it fairly easy to bring in food over long distances making us much less vulnerable.

          But, in the end it is the resilience and initiativeness of the common man that would carry the day. I flat out refuse to believe that we are that much more puny as humans then our forefathers where during for instance WWII. And if we are we deserve to get a beating so we get back on track.
          Some will get going emediatly, the majority will curl up and cry for a day and then get going, and a small portion will give up totally.

          And ontop of that some stubborn drunkard will get up and hold a speach rousing the masses…
          “We will fight the ashes on the beaches, we will fight the ashes in our streets and our homes. My wife for instance has a knife, on that knife she has etched the word “Ash”, she will not shy away from using that knife on the ghastly ashes.”…

  17. Just a little surprise when Diana comes on with coffee#1. She blew Alans Riddle
    Quote: Alan’s riddle (My head is hurting now!)…another go…..
    Cryptomelane From the Greek for hidden and black.
    It is a potassium manganese oxide mineral with formula K(Mn4+,Mn2+)8O16.
    Found at the Ojuela mine, Mapimi, Druango, Mexico and also Chindwara, India .
    Related to other manganese Oxides such as chalcophanite & manganite

    His answer: the mineral is Cryptomelane, one of a complex suite of manganese oxides formerly grouped as Psilomelane
    Others – manganite, pyrolusite
    As at Tombstone, Arizona
    (ie Kryptos – Hidden; Melas – Black)

    Congratulations Diana!!!

      • There is a version of this I saw a little while ago.
        Someone thought that the chinese flag had a yellow panda on instead of the normal stuff. Somehow that got hoisted during a state visit. Funny thing, not even the chinese VP noticed it.

  18. Good morning everyone, I woke up so sleepy…

    To Geolurking: being specific, about 30-35km east of Hekla, near Laugarás and Árnes I found ocasionally pieces of small pumice. I can´t remember now which layer of ash it is. The pieces of white pumice they are lost within the ash layer and are up to 1cm. But I do know that in 1510 eruption, a lava bomb from Hekla killed a person near there in Skáfholt. That is 35-40km in straight line. It should have been very violent eruption therefore.

    To the northwest of Hekla, just a bit north of Geysir, I found large white ash deposits, which I assume to be from Hekla, and there you find moderate pieces of pumice up to 2cm and quite several. But that’s a region near the glacier Langjokull, so I dont risk to trace the age of it. But it seems a few thousand years old.

    Further away, next to Thingvellir I found another region with a thick ash layer and pieces of white pumice also up to 2cm. I did not expect to find white ash layer there. I do not know whether that is really Hekla, or whether it is Snaefellsjokull (because from there to Snaefellsjokull you find many white pumice ash layers, larger as you get closer to it). Both Hekla and Snaefellsjokull are 100km from this spot. Thus that white pumice is a mystery for me. It could have been also the southern region of Langjokull or Hengill itself which are only 10km away.

    Next to Snaefellsjokull I also found large chuncks of white pumice, a proof of violent recent eruptions of it, something like 2000 years old. And next to Askja, from 1875 eruption, and around Oraefajokull from 1362 eruption, but these last two do not seem to have been that near violent as probably some eruptions of Hekla and Snaefellsjokull.

      • I live 40km straight line from Hekla. We really do not worry about it here. Actually we do not worry about any volcano.

        We live almost inside Grimsnes volcanic field, long dormant and also very tiny volcano. But Hekla only reaches lava bombs here in very rare eruptions. But ash from several volcanoes can deposit even where we live. It all comes down to the size of eruption, and as Carl said, icelandic volcanoes are fat ones in eruptions, so we only worry seriously if something is VEI5 or more. But I dont wish Hekla to erupt because than I have to cover my garden from its ash. But I do not stock any emergency food or anything. I live in the moment and I guess I trust my own intuition 🙂

        I never met islander, inge or jon. I dont know where they live…

    • got shivers waching and listening to this, that eruption was (some) plagued by bad visibility and snowy-weather, especially 500 cars stuck in snow on mountain road on Sunday night, most were returning from Sunday drive of watching Hekla.

    • Yes it will, it was built to survive pretty much anything. But the camera might get whacked if the eruption is large enough.

  19. I’ve got the mila webcam on another window, came back after a toilet break, flicked over to it and had a black screen – I thought, wow, that’s some powerful eruption if it’s done that in a couple of minutes. A quick F5 and normality resumed!

    • You are not the first one…
      My best spook is flipping back to the screen and there was this enormous dark mushroom cloud rising rapidly from Hekla. With the heart pounding I looked at another camera and only saw a nice white low cloud. When I checked the third cam I got what happened.
      A low cloud hit Heklas side and was pushed straight up, and the sun came from behind so the backside turned really dark. It was, interesting… 🙂

    • I think the problem is we have now more refined equipment and recordings. I think we are seeing Hekla’s secrets for the first time here.

    • Look at Google maps…
      It shows quite clearly there. And if one is lucky and have naval charts for the area it is pretty evident.
      Problem is just that nobody bothered looking for a caldera there.
      “Hm, wait a minute, we have islands placed around the edges of a deep thingamabit and an almost circular seamount… And on the bottom of the deep thingamabit we have a lot of what looks like stratovolcanoes poking up? Hum…”

  20. Hi Carl, welcome back, I found some info you might be looking for, I am not fluent in portugise, the link should get you there under sismos

    • So more then 20 earthquakes ranging from 15 to 2 kilometres depth.
      I so wish to have a tremor station to look at…

      Thank you for the link, it really shows well all the earthquakes at Fossa da Povocao.
      If this is a volcano causing it I name it Wim after the filmmaker Wim Wenders.

  21. Hekla looks awsome now, I remeber last year I was thinking it should go when the mountain looks in a smooth line which it does now, before there was ‘a step’ below the peak

  22. An afternoon’s ruminations. I think we are very lucky right now. We are seeing events within hours and precursors to events as they happen. We are the first generation of amateur Volcanoholics to have access that only the elite few in various universities had a few years ago.
    I still cannot get over the “magic” of the internet. I am lucky because I can appreciate what I am experiencing. Young people may take all this for granted . This is their time. It’s us “wrinklies” that understand fully the enormous strides that have been taken over the last 30 or so years.. Likewise it is us wrinklies that can see what may happen. Our collective memories and experiences can almost see into the furure to a time where electronics may fail. I do think we are the one who will be able to advise and take this “Catastrophe” in their stride. Sigh……. I really don’t yearn for the days of cold linoleum . Admiring frost ferns on the inside of the windows. Actually having to make conversation and entertainment by candlelight. 😀

    • Hi Diana, I so agree with you here. The reason I came to love webcams was the great wonder of what was possible nowadays. Who would have been able to watch beavers in their underwater lodge, 10, 20 years ago? Or watch a butterfly develop from a caterpillar, black bears having cubs in their den? Or watch a remote volcano doing an innocent burp, for that matter? Today, everybody except the poorest can have a webcam in their garden watching the blackbirds hatch, and on youtube you find almost everything. For the younger generations these are no wonders anymore, they are normality. For me, watching a pair of barn owls laying the eggs and raising six owlets two years ago made me feel like Roald Amundson must have felt on his south pole expedition: seeing with my own eyes what nobody had seen before.

      • Hi Granyia. I think you may find this link fascinating then.
        It is a totally fascinating live webcam of Peregrine Falcons nesting on Chichester Cathedral.
        Every year now they raise young and it is totally fascinating (to me anyway) to be able to watch the eggs hatch then the parent birds feeding the chicks and the chicks take their first
        wobbly steps around before they finally fly the nest.
        The young from either last year or the year before are now nesting on a high building in my town too and my husband loves watching the parent birds swooping into the local park and then flying off with one of the multitude of feral pigeons or collared doves.

        • day before yesterday we had a peregrine on the fence about 3 meters from me through the window 🙂

          • I love watching Eagles soaring on the thermals in spring mid morning taking their off- spring for some training along the coastal ridges

  23. Hy carl & all, a little OT
    there is anyone of you wide-minded who had red this article?
    I don’t manage geophysic (and english writing), but seems to be of general interesting for us,
    “The Earth’s Centre is 1000 Degrees Hotter than Previously Thought ”
    talks about a new determination of the temperature at earth core


    • Thank you Vittorio. I read it but I am not good at physics. It is interesting though as it shows how quickly scientific knowledge and ideas change.

    • Thank you!
      This paper gave me a lead on something I have been working on for a while.
      I have been trying to develop a modell of how on earth the Kirunawaara deposit of iron ore happened.
      I speculated that it was core iron due to size and almost impossible purity in the emplacement of the ancient magma. But it was impossible for a blob of molten iron to rize and mix with mantle material at the previous boundary temperatures of the core.
      Now I know that it is possible for that to happen.
      Hint, do not be around the spot where the blob comes up.

    • Scary, It was almost immediately clear that the plane was going to crash. For me, the planes behaviour looked just like the kites we played with at the beach. Completely out-of-control and impossible to keep in the air.

        • Very possibly. T-storm approaching at the time so windshear also a possible factor. Perhaps another contributing factor MAY have been the (understandable) penchant of most crews leaving Bagram to fly as steep a climbout as possible to get away from the threat of ground fire. It’s more than OK in a C-130, but a 747-400F is not quite so amenable to such a profile, especially at nearly 5000 ft runway elevation. Either way, RIP.

            • It looks like the plane is already upside down at the start of the vid. Wtf?

            • Got home late from meeting last night . so I couldn’t comment. I see much speculation how or
              why this happened. Not familiar with the 747 per se, but lord, anytime the c.g. is suddenly changed like that and at a steep angle, not good. Strap breaking, piece of equipment starts moving, They had time to think about it.. Sometimes ”Fate is the hunter.” RIP..
              Noted most of the crew was under 40….

    • Very. Thank You!

      And many thanks to my wife for loaning me her nail clippers. One thing I really hate is picking up a box and unexpectedly snapping off the tip of my thumbnail. Sometimes they don’t break clean and you wind up with an oddly shaped nail tip that is irritating as all get-out.

      This mundane missive is not needed for this response, and is probably TMI. As for He3 vs He4 ratios, higher He3 indicates “more pristine” material… such as fresh magma arriving on the scene. He3 is quite rare, and is only produced in radioactive decay of Tritium or in supernova explosions… or the bombardment of some materials with neutrons.

      So, unless you have someone operating a reactor nearby… and the He3 ratio goes up, the only viable source is fresh(er) magma nearby.

      BTW, He3 is not radioactive… but He can make some Congress critters seem to be total flipping morons when they try to talk about it with an air of authority.

  24. The seismicity of Helka is fascinating me at the moment. The wind is actually very light right now so what is making this “noise”? It seems to be happening in about six hourly cycles. Most intriguing.
    The tremor graphs at Haukdalur are showing busy long wave activity also. This doesn’t look like water activity patterns as seen a couple of weeks ago and discussed.

    • Why am i thinking of ghost busters two for?? 🙂 congrats on the riddle points, nice one. 4 weeks ago it was not like that and it was -4 last night and it looked like that at 3:50 local time. Maybe Islander is on to something.

      GL Edit: Added Vigo

      • Love it darlings… more slime. Slime everywhere… I want it all reddish pink by the end of the night now… off to get my baby now. :0 love it. 🙂

    • Carl seems to think it’s man-made or water thawing, Islander thinks it may be Hekla “squeezing” the water out prior to eruption (if I’ve read their comments correctly). I rather think it’s volcano related than otherwise – but I’d be happy to find out whatever it is!

      • … so, if we fill Hekla with grapefruit will we get grapefruit juice?

        I like grapefruit juice. (unsweetened, and so sour that it will wipe a smile off of anyone’s face)

        • next you will say that you love beetroot after a glass of that stuff, The answer is no and I understand that lots of things could cause this signal and down the bottom would be Hekla. I just do not have enough info to think what it could be, so I guess like an man holding an M60 firing bullets at a F35 taking off the runway.

          • Nah, you can keep the beetroot. I have on many occasions expressed my like of grapefruit juice. I would have used oranges in my example, but I didn’t want anyone inferring that I was making an anti-semitic comment. With the exception of the USS Liberty, I don’t have any issues with them.

            • I just got promoted to Captain. 🙂 Captain of the ship “I do not know what’s going on ship”. We set sail tomorrow to join the fleet “complete mystery”.

              USS Liberty, anti-semitic, Lost in internationalization is guess…

              O.T. I do not recall ever meeting a Jewish person before, If I did the religion part was visible or discussed. I attempt to follow the teachings from the School of Ferris Bueller and keep isms out of the class, my home work is below. 🙂 Good and bad people in most parts of the world, indeed my generalist paint brush is big tonight.. 🙂


            • “Lost in translation”

              Several months (years?) ago, there was a protest where one if the antagonists were blaming the Juice [sic] for all of the world’s troubles… you know this because that’s what his sign read.

              It has since become somewhat of a meme unto itself. Rage boy’s misspelling was somewhat funny, and elicited a chuckle from many. So many that some random hosebag who wanted to start crap over it might have done so. I changed it from oranges to grapefruits in order to distance my thoughts from that meme.

            • As for the Liberty… it was a signals intelligence ship, much like the USS Pueblo in purpose. Sit around, collect RF signals, analyze. In the Liberties case, it was monitoring a war. Israel claimed that they mis-took it for an Egyptian horse freighter… despite the fact that it was flying a holiday ensign off the rear of the ship. Holiday ensigns are farking huge.

              So, they attacked it. Even machine gunning the life-rafts.

              There is some discussion and anti-discussion about why they did not get helo from Sixth Fleet, who they sent a distress signal to. Allegedly, the aircraft sortie that was sent to help was turned back on orders from the White House. The guy in charge, thinking that that the WH was concerned about the aircraft possibly being armed with nukes, had them removed from the AC, refueled, and sent back out. Upon telling his higher ups what he had done, was told to bring the AC back again. So, the Liberty sat there and weathered the attack… by “allies,” alone. With no help.

              The real pisser is that there are some accounts that a US submarine sat off at a distance and watched the attack. “Frontlet” was some sort of call sign associated with it. One of the survivors ran across one of the subs crew who asked incredulously “You were on that ship?”

              No world on the actual identity of the sub has been discovered….

              Having worked in a similar field, and not liking the idea of a Chain of Command leaving you to die… while being attacked by supposed allies… the story just pisses me off to no end.

            • Thank you for explaining that GL. Human history is full of these events, A similar story could of started the Irish civil war in the 1920’S, Could Sudam Hussien or Ignacy Mościcki have the same view point as you explained. Sometimes the oath and meaning of the word “Allies” depends on what time of the day it is. Sometimes “Allies” creates legends, like the Battle of Vienna of 11–12 September 1683.

              P.S. I could not reply under your last comment. (Also I am not giving reference to any person above, just giving random examples.)

            • You couldn’t respond because of the depth of nested comments. It has to stop somewhere or else we would have a column of letters that only read as a combination of vertically stacked words.

              BTW, in my above, I specifically avoided more modern examples. There are certain zombies that would take exception to it. Can’t have the zombies pissed off ya know. 😀

      • Me too. I have never seen this before. The threads showing the strains from the four locations at the top looks like Ms Hekla has her knicker elastic very twisted 😀

          • 🙂 yep, likely bad stomach … I know how these days. But I might not be up to anything. The grapes (likely “Grapes of Wrath” ) might be the ever present, never escapable, and unstoppable … wind. Yes, there is some visible in Jóns helicorder trace tonight. Sorry guys and Gals, hold your grapes.
            Here is what I think may pre-ceede next eruption at Hekla,
            cast in order of appearance…
            1. Quakes near HAU and MJO (and possibly in North West of Hekla, towards Burfell)
            2. Quakes near and in Hekla
            3. Tremour rises at HAU, MJO and FED (and possibly other stations too)
            4. Strain drops at HEK, or BUR first, followed by HEK, HEL and STO showing rise
            (*drops/rizes of dramatic proportions*)
            5. Eruption follows.
            However if quakes start at Isakot, then GL has correctly plotted that Burfell has already inflated and is reay to blow. That mountain is also volcano, a table one, very old one, but it is a ridge , like Hekla.

        • As long as she doesn’t get Islanders ‘runs’ just yet! I have places to go and people to see so not much time for Hekla watching. So I am really sorry folks but you now have to wait two weeks for Hekla to erupt. I ORDERED it. 😀

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