The most dangerous volcanoes of the world. Your choices are ?

I was asked to prepare a talk for a “Deep Space” Live show on September 26 in the Ars Electronica Center, Linz ,Austria. “Deep Space” in this case is our special presentation room with 2 screens 16 x 9 meters on one wall and the floor.

I am starting to prepare my talk today and will eventually also use my research to write posts for VC. Your input is most welcome!

My number 1 most dangerous volcano of the world is Vesuvius. Carl wrote 2 posts about it…
Monte Somma & Vesuvius Author: Carl June 7th.
The world’s most ill-begotten piece of real estate, Author Carl, April 30th.

The reason for my personal choice is the number of people which could be affected in case Vesuv (german name version) blows up in a big eruption and the effects this could have are very well documented with the eruption of 79 which, as we all know, destroyed Pompei and Herculaneum. Recently cientists found an even bigger eruption 3800 years ago which harmed people living in the Bronze Age called the Avellino eruption.

Next on the list could be Nyiaragongo in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is so dangerous because its lava is so fluid and the lava flows can reach a speed of 100km/h. Absolutely no chance to outrun such a flow!.

Another candidate for a possibly very dangerous eruption to me is Mount Ranier.

Image Wikimedia Commons

Image Wikimedia Commons

And this hazard map shows exactly why Mount Ranier could one day again bring devastation to the surrounding countryside most especially to the cities Tocoma and  Seattle.

Webcam screenshot by me.

Webcam screenshot by me.

Popocatépetl  is erupting right now. Not a huge big explosive event but still. Mexico City is close and millions of people are living in that area. If you wanna watch what is going on at the moment, best use this link. http://www.malinpebbles.com/Images/FOTOS/Meine-Webcam-Seiten/pubweb/CuS-Amerika.htm#MX

popoTlamacas2-3

Merapi last erupted on 2010 and many of us tried to follow the event using webcams and discussing on Erik Klemettis blog Eruptions. But it is by far not the only dangerous volcano in Indonesia. Bromo comes to mind and many others.

Taal in the Philipines is not to be underestimated. GeoLurking wrote about it.

Image Wikimedia Commons

Taal. Image Wikimedia Commons

In South and Middle America quite some beasts can be found too. Galeras or Nevado del Ruiz or Colima in Mexico.

No candidates for really dangerous volcanoes are Yellowstone or Kilauea to me. Yellowstone.. because ,yes it was a supervolcano but nothing points to another really huge eruption in the near future as Erik often explained. And the surrounding countryside is not heavily populated.

Hawaii´s Kilauea. I am sorry to point out, if someone builds a new house on a lava flow that is not even 100 years old. Loosing said house because of a new flow cannot really come as a big surprise. The vents are fascinating for certain but i would not consider the volcano one of the most dangerous ones in the world.

I know little about volcanoes in Japan. This list is not about the most active volcanoes at the very moment, because Sakurajima would most   likely be top ranked,  but about those which might cause a lot of harm one day in the future.

I will do more research on Pantelleria and submarine volcanoes which might be dangerous but for now, i am asking for your input. Which volcano do you consider to be dangerous. We are all no experts just volcanophiles and of course i/we know about the Decade Volcano Program  about which Henrik posted. ( The Decade Volcano Programme Author Henrik, December 25th.2012)

t.b.c.

Spica

 

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127 thoughts on “The most dangerous volcanoes of the world. Your choices are ?

  1. I would put Mayon in the Philippines into my personal list, it is geologically very close to going caldera with its huge size, steep walls and the ring faultline that is developing. And if it goes caldera there are five million living within strikeing distance.

    The second one is Amatitlan Caldera under Guatemala City. I will get back to that one soon since it is part two of A tale of Three Cities.

    I totally agree with you Spica about Yellowstone and Kilauea.

  2. Hi Spica – nice to see you!

    Food for thought there certainly – I guess there are a lot of potentially big caldera-type places that can threaten millions of people, but Nevado del Ruiz showed us that there are a lot of smaller but potentially very dangerous volcanoes in the ‘wetter’ regions because of the lahar threat. Not in the Vesuvius league, but 25,000 is a horrendous number of people any way you look at it.

  3. Good afternoon Spica – nice to meet you 🙂

    Mt. Vesuvius is, without a doubt, the sleeping giant for me. I was truly blessed to have received a first-hand account of the March 1944 eruption from my Neapolitan Grandmother, who was living within the city of Naples at the time. She vividly recalled the ash raining on the city, the heat on her feet as she walked across ‘the hot snow’. The 1944 eruption was only minor (a VEI of 3, if I recall correctly), yet was quite destructive in nature. And Vesuvio was only clearing his throat at the time…

    … the other volcano that comes to mind is the Uturuncu stratovolcano in Bolivia, which displayed renewed activity in the form of notable uplifting from about 1992 onwards after what was believed to be 200,000 years of slumber. I haven’t heard of any recent updates on the uplifting situation but it’s certainly worth keeping an interested eye on.

    Willow.

  4. Popo had that gas expulsion in a semi circle several meters down from the summit. If that was part of a ring fault, it could more dangerous than it seems.

    Hawaii is a large threat due to the Hilina Slump. And… the island system is known, geologically, for impressive mass wasting episodes. Everybody hoots and hollers about La Palma, but I think Hawaii will be the first actually do it. Yeah, tsunami threat, but what about the innards that get exposed to the ocean?

    Ranier, lahar, lahar, lahar. Much of the summit is altered rock.

  5. I wouldn’t under-estimate Sakura-jima; she has produced some large eruptions in the past and is close to a large city.

    But has the definition of dangerous been updated since Eyjafjallajokull reminded us of our dependency on air traffic, international trade and electronic communications?

    • No, not really.
      But, I still say that there is a big difference between inconvenience and dangerous.
      Yes, a Laki sized eruption would be a rather big nuisance, but it would not be particularly dangerous. And now we know how to protect ourselves and have the capacity to do so.

      And no size of eruption would cut electronic communications.

      Edit: Yeah! You did not get dungeonized now!!! 🙂

      • And no size of eruption would cut electronic communications

        No, leave that up to the NSA…

        http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23752-submarine-internet-cables-are-a-gift-for-spooks.html#.Ud2sg22NGrQ

        However, a submarine volcano could sever a trunk quite easily. Due to the way the internet works, traffic would be re-routed across operable pathways. I dunno if dedicated voice circuits have the same built in redundancy though.

        Satellites and uplinks? Location and intensity will determine that (uplinks). If a volcanic plume can hit geostationary satellites… I don’t think that calling aunt Marge will rank very high on the list of priorities.

        Good Lord at the size of the subsequent base surge when that column comes back down…

        • Nope, no plume could ever hit a geostationary satellite. They are all at geosynchonous orbit, and that is way to far out for that to happen.

        • My point exactly…

          If it could happen, using the telephone would probably not be a priority.

          (35,786 km)

          Or about FL→ 1,163,045

          For comparison, Pinatubo’s column reached 34 km.

      • A Laki-sized eruption would not be good for modern Europe if the ash and gases emitted were the wrong type.

        • It would not be good, it would be nuisance, but nothing more really. It would though be bad for Iceland.

          • Hmmm ………. the last Laki eruption caused deaths in the UK, France and Germany (& possibly elsewhere in Europe) and damaged crops – not as harsh as the effects on Iceland but a bit more than a nuisance.

          • Depends on your point of reference.

            If you are a worker, or are simply trying to make ends meet and feed your family, a large impact.

            If you are part of the bureaucratic ruling class, you could give a shit less. Your taxes will still be collected no matter how bad the situation is for the commoner.

            This is why I go to bed each night, hoping for a liquefaction event of biblical proportions on the swampland that Washington DC is built upon.

            …arseholes can dream ya know :D. If it happens, it’s karma. If it doesn’t, its also karma and for some reason, we deserve to keep being screwed by those criminals.

            • Well If you think about the real fuss over the last smallish 2011 iceland eruption (compared to Laki I mean) a quarter of the same thing will probably wreak a complete havoc on northern europe (at least). For the last little Laki caper we had several revolutions, and a small corsican guy roamed over europe bringing war and desolation for more than 10 years. The only positive point (from the volcanic point of vue) was that Fourier, a french mathematician, when searching how to calculate heat dissipation coming from the boring of cannons invented the Fourier transform. Thank to that we can see the psd from El Hierro (and other vocanoes), among other things.

            • And “spéciale dédicace” to Sa’ke, a few years later, Belgium was invented. 😀

              So Belgium is the daughter of Laki. CQFD. Vive Philippe !

            • Actually there are ample evidence that the economics did not go down during Eyjafjallajökull. People were really good at finding other ways of doing things.

              Me for instance, I did all my meetings via Skype. Worked beautifuly, and the company saved 2 500 000€ in airfare only that month without loosing a single coin and productivity went up all across the board since people actually had their asses parked behind the desks. Same goes for all the other large companies.

              Food? Not a problem since 99.5 percent are being shipped by train, ship or truck. The remaining 0,5% are luxuary items.
              In reallity almost no critical items go by airfreight.

              @Karen: Yes people did die. Why? Well, those who died were farmers that worked heavy labour in the fields. Very few farmers do heavy work in fields nowadays. They mainly sit in comfy airconditioned tractors. And also, back then they did not know what they died from. Today we know that it was sulpuric gases that turned into sulphuric acid when breathed in. Here is the fun thing, it does not even take a gasmask to filter it down to be harmless. All you need are four layers of cotton cloth sown together in facemask that you damped down. Then the sulphuric acid would be created in the damp cloth instead of inside your lungs.

              Sorry, but I am not buying into doom and gloom. And it does not have anything to do with being rich or poor really. So, in reality we will loose our trips to get plastered in sunny places and it will stink a bit.

              For the Icelanders? Well, it wont be fun, but they will also survive since they today are not as dependent on homegrown food. I would though not want to be a sheep there…

            • I for one do not buy into Laki creating anything in history. Whenever Laki had happened something historically interesting would have been attributed to it. There is just no causality between Napoleon (who came to power as a side effect of the revolution that started 6 years after Laki)

            • @ Carl, it shouldn’t be doom and gloom if there has been proper contingency planning.

            • There should be planning for any contingency anyhow… 🙂
              Shit will always happen, but it is the unknown shit that really bites the ass. To be honest, I think the the most likely show stopper for humanity is our own stupidity, ie that we start WWIII.

              And the food shortages in France was local. England and Germany had food surplus at the time of the revolution. Remember that the food shortage associated for Laki happened in 1784, 5 years before the revolution started. If memory serves (unlikely for my befuddled brain) it was an unusual draught in France that caused the food shortage.

            • I guess I am easily amused.

              There is just no causality between Napoleon (who came to power as a side effect of the revolution that started 6 years after Laki)

              I would call that a pretty significant coincidence. But then, I also agree with the correlation between wheat prices and solar cycles.

              The big difference is that Napoleon is a short “one off” event, and the other one can be watched for repeat occurrences.

        • Laki would make Eyjafjallajokull look like a walk in the park. Eyfjallajokull was a very minor event, from the perspective of the whole history of Iceland. No one died, farmers had problems yes, but that’s common stuff, and actually was good for Iceland as it made Iceland more famous than before, attracting tourism.

          A repeat of Laki would be severe. Haze would cause a chaos for long time in Europe. Flights would keep disrupted for a long time. Agrioculture and economics would suffer (because nowadays even a politician comment can send markets down, imagine what a Laki event would do!). But that only if the wind patterns would keep the north to south pattern, which is not so common occurance. They occur most often during spring and early autumn in my experience, so those are the most risky times for a large Icelandic eruption. Still Iceland has more dominant east winds (especially during winter) and more southerly winds during summer. But this is just a generalization.

  6. So you like this kind of brain provocation. Cool. I got the invitation to do that Deep Space show only yesterday evening. And just started making up my mind, what to cover. Of course i will speak about the different volcanic hazards. I started a series with Lahars a while ago but never continued. This will happen soon now as long as i need to research it anyway. My personal oppinnion is that not all of the different dangers a volcano can bring along with an eruption are fit to put lifes in danger iright away. Carl mentioned Laki. Not all to many lives would be claimed directly in Iceland if such an event should happen again but the gases and the ash could bring death to people living far far away from the actual volcano.

    • Dunno what sort of media will be involved, but getting footage of a truck pouring concrete may help to convey the idea of what sort of consistency a lahar has.

      • Very good comparison, i ll use that. Thanks GeoLurking.
        And thanks all the others for their ideas. I wont be able to mention all because the talk will last 1 hour.. but i ll most certainly research more on every volcano which was suggested.

    • Hi Spica. Nice to read you.

      Vesuvius for Southern Europe for me. When you see the Napoli area, with all its highways, small towns, high population density, und so weiter, the good point is that the monitoring is very good. For the rest of the world ? I won’t make a guess.

  7. I’d like to post a few volcanoes that are highly dangerous, yet perhaps not all that well recognized around the world. These aren’t ordered in terms of danger to society, but I just felt I would add a few to here that deserve some attention.

    1. El Misti – El Misti is Peru’s most famous volcano, but that doesn’t make it well known worldwide. The danger with Misti is the fact that Arequipa sits at the base of it’s summit, with a total population probably nearly a million within striking distance of a large eruption. Further, as is true with most andean stratovolcanoes, el Misti is quite potent and has had two caldera collapse events in it’s history according to GVP. Even worse, Arequipa is situated downhill from the volcano, making landslides and pyroclastic flows more likely to affect populated areas.

    2. San Salvador – Since Carl already mentioned the amatitlan caldera, I think it’s pertinent to mention the fact that the capital of El Salvador is sitting between a large caldera that is responsible for one of the largest eruptions in the last 3000 years, and a massive stratovolcano named San Salvador (same as the city). Llopongo being the caldera likely won’t erupt for a little while, but San Salvador is a more typical stratovolcano that has a history of flank eruptions, which could literally erupt into the middle of the city as much of the city sits on the slopes of this volcano. Couple that in with potential lava flows, not a lot of mitigation or monitoring, and the fact that San Salvador has a caldera collapse history as well, and this is another really “begotten” piece of real estate.

    3. Chacana Caldera – Chacana is a massive caldera that isn’t likely to erupt, but if it does erupt, it will be a big deal. Chacana sits only 30km from the capital of Peru, Quito, and has had massive VEI-7 eruptions at least 3 times in it’s history. According to GVP: “Chacana is a massive, eroded caldera complex of Pliocene-Holocene age that forms one of the largest rhyolitic centers of the northern Andes. The caldera is 32-km long in the N-S direction and 18-24 km wide in the E-W direction. Chacana was constructed during three cycles of andesitic-to-rhyolitic volcanism, with major eruptions about 240,000, 180,00, and 160,000 years ago.”Count chacana in the group of “very unlikely to erupt soon, but very bad if it does erupt”.

    4. Ata, Aira, Aso, Kikai, and Kakuto Calderas (Japan) – In southern japan, there is a north-south trending arc that notoriously produces huge caldera complexes. Most of these calderas have produced multiple VEI-7 eruptions, all of which would devastate Japan if a similar even were to happen in historical times. Among these calderas are Aso (mainland), Aira (Sakurajima’s mom), and Kikai (likely the largest eruption in the Holocene). While the 3 previous calderas get a lot more publicity, the Ata caldera also is equally dangerous, and isn’t nearly as well publicized. Ata sits beneath Kagoshima bay south of Aira, making it so that water would play a large role in amplifying any presumable eruption.

    Truth be told, if any of these volcanoes went caldera, the entire southern island of Kyushu in Japan would be devastated, and there would be severe global economic repurcussions. Part of the problem with volcanoes in Kyushu is that evacuating would be incredibly difficult due to high population as well as the fact that it’s an island, and the large eruptions have a tendency to affect the entirety of the island. To me, any of these volcanoes going caldera is a true “worst case scenario” for a devastating volcanic catastrophe. And while they’re not super likely to erupt in such a fashion, there is a much higher chance than other caldera complexes as they’re more active and there are 4-5 volcanoes that can all erupt violently in such a fashion. I would say that the repurcussions may be even worse than a VEI-7 at Campi Flegrei. I would wager that if someone were to calculate probability of large-scale eruptions vs. potential for destruction, southern Japan would be the highest area in the world for overall catastrophe risk.

    For anybody interested in learning more on these volcanoes and the history of southern japan volcanism, there is a very good free paper that can be found at http://www.numo.or.jp/en/reports/pdf/TR-09-02-5.pdf .

    5. Avachinsky – What else needs to be said aside from it being a large stratovolcano overlooking Kamchatka’s largest city? It’s had big eruptions and edifice failures in the past which have directly affected areas within city boundaries, therefore, it’s a huge risk to people living in the vicinity of the volcano.

    6. Shikotsu – While southern japan wins the award for being the most disaster prone area in Japan, the Shikotsu caldera is one of many in northern japan that sits within 10-20 km on all sides of major cities, including Japan’s 5th largest city Sapporo. The 13 x 15 caldera formed in a massive eruption around 31,000 years back, and it’s had subsequent eruptions in historical time that have been among the largest in japanese history.

    • Dont forget Uturuncu. It’s the one that Dr. Shanaka de Silva noted that actually has the correct heat flow to eventually be a “large caldera event.” And its surrounded by other previous large calderas.

      This came up in one of Dr Klemetti’s posts on Eruptions where he opened up a period for questions to Dr. Shanaka de Silva.

      http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/02/dr-shanaka-de-silva-answers-your-questions-about-supervolcanoes-uturuncu-and-more/

      • This is true, although the one thing about Uturuncu is that it’s not even remotely close to any civilization. Even if it were to do something stupidly large, I don’t think it would have any massive direct impact on people since it’s in one of the most desolate areas of the earth. The biggest question for a volcano like Uturuncu would be how it would affect the climate after a large eruption.

        • Puyehe Cordon-Calle would be a grain compared to what Uturuncu would do, if it would went a VEI7-8 caldera style. Then, a severe Laki-like haze hanging most of our countries, for years not months.

          • I think if Uturuncu would form a VEI-7, even if it’s a larger one, the global effects would be noticable, but hardly disastrous. Yes, climate would most likely be very cold for a year or two, but after that, I feel we would recover pretty well.

            A vei-8 is anybody’s guess as to how it affects the climate. The biggest concern would be a bottleneck in the global foodchain if it would cause weakened crop failures due to colder weather.

            With that said, I really think a VEI-7 in Naples or southern Japan would be just as disastrous as a smaller VEI-8 from Uturuncu. Location is a big big deal.

      • Geolurking is right. If Uturuncu would do a VEI7, then expect a major crises in the western civilization, yes survivable and probably just an annoyance for most of us, but a true 1816-like climate disruption worldwide, would be damaging at least. Many would die in third world countries and agriculture in the western world would get seriously disrupted with a severe economic crises following it.

        And if it delivers a big VEi7, then damage is even worse. Think of 536 events repeated once again. Its not a walk in the park.

        Uturuncu in my oppinion is the only supervolcano that could erupt in the near future. All others seem to be rather stable. However most likely it will only erupt many years or centuries in the far future.

  8. Hi Spica! Much food for thought here. My candidate is called “Currently Ignored”. I think the most dangerous volcano could be currently classed as ‘extinct/dormant’. It could be in a country where they think there is no threat or a country that has plenty of volcanoes but they are not monitoring “Currently Ignored” because it poses no threat. It may have a short run up time, or it may have a small eruption and then be deemed to have gone back to sleep. Then, out of a clear blue sky, it goes bang.

    Second candidate is Vesuvius.

    • If I remember correctly… recent research looked into just how fast a volcano can reactivate. Rather that a period of years, it turned out that months was a better metric.

      • I think for situations like these, it’s probably better understood they were never actually extinct in the first place.

        If a new large wad of magma is emplaced into a magma chamber that has been crystallizing for 10,000 years, chances are it’ll be able to erupt pretty quickly. Given gas content and pressure associated with evolved magmas, it makes sense that they don’t take long to form a sizeable eruption (looking at you Cordon Caulle)

        • ex·tinct (k-stngkt)
          adj.
          1. No longer existing or living: an extinct species.
          2. No longer burning or active: an extinct volcano.
          3. No longer in use: an extinct custom. See Synonyms at dead.
          4. Law Lacking a claimant; void: an extinct title.

          I thing that whoever allowed the term “extinct” into the volcano lexicon should be denigrated and/or secluded on a remote island for the rest of their life. “dormant” sure, it fits, “extinct?” No freeking way.

          Even Jackson Volcano, and ancient island volcano that has been eroded flat, and had millions of years of sediment layered over top of it, still has had some amount of uplift. You can see that in the strata maps around Jackson Dome. Wells drilled into the area produce copious amounts of CO2, so much so that it is used as the source of an industrial gas. I grew up on top of this thing, and had only heard rumors of it’s existence. The liklihood of it ever doing anything is pretty remote… but extinct? Nah.

          Flip it on it’s side and erode away on half of it, like that ancient “supervolcano” in Italy where they have a profile view of the morphology of it, then you could probably say that it is extinct. But it’s structure remains…. so how is that “no longer exists.”

          If you can walk up and poke at it with a stick… it’s still there.

    • Mt Fuji might be one to put on the list. Last eruption 1707. Still a stratovolcano but may go caldera one day (no imminent signs that she will that I know of).

    • I’ll second the vote for “Currently Ignored”. A previous version of “Currently Ignored”, aka Mt Lamington, took out ~3000 people in Papua New Guinea in 1951. Wasn’t even recognized as a volcano, just a bit of a peak in jungle. The 3000 or so people in surrounding villages suffered a similar fate to the residents of St Pierre in 1902.

      With my Southern Hemisphere hat on, I’d like to add votes for:

      1. Taupo / Okataina. Lots of rhyolitic mush waiting to be reactivated by fresh basaltic injection, water everywhere to interact with it, and a known history of minimal precursors and runups in the days to hours. That sucker could throw a large VEI6 to VEI7 within days to weeks of the first rumble.

      2. Also in NZ: Auckland Volcanic field. If the premise of that turkey of a movie “Volcano” could ever come true, it would be in metropolitan Auckland. They are even talking about building some nice new rail tunnels through the city for the flows to run through ;). Mitigating factors – well recognized, well monitored, good civil defense plans and reasonably aware population. Would be a minor fart compared to Taupo going all “Hatepe eruption mk2” on us.

      3. I’d be willing to wager that there’s more than one “currently ignored” that will run up to a major eruption somewhere in the Americas between Mexico and Southern Chile, or possibly in Indonesia or Phillippines. Uturuncu has already been mentioned, but are there others? Do we even have baselines for measuring inflation at many of them?

      4. Global economic implications only, but the formation of even a small Maar in the Eifel Volcanic Field in Germany would probably throw a spanner in the EU for a while. I’m not going to do the Daily Mail thing and claim the Laacher See is a ticking timebomb, but what is the monitoring like there to check for a new intrusion in this still active monogenetic field?

      5. What about the Colli Albani 20km or so outside Rome? Unlikely to be a big eruption, but still would be highly disruptive.

      As you can see, I think there is a huge range of potentially disruptive eruptions from quite small but economically damaging ones in inconvenient places, to unexpected truly huge eruptions. In terms of potential for major death & disruption, I think the frontrunners have to be Vesuvius (for megadeath & social/economic impact), Taupo, or an unknown in either South America or Indonesia.

  9. Spica, what a nice and provocative post!
    I agree with all our fellow bloggers and suggest you to re-read Dr. Oppenheiemer’s book, Eruptions that shook the world.
    Mayon, Machin, Santorini and Flegreii come to my mind…

  10. Hi – interesting question, Spica!

    Size isn’t everything though!

    Mt Merapi I think showed me how dangerous an island volcano can be – with hot lahars, bridges washed away, and everything ‘downhill’ – because the volcano is the highest point on the land. At least in Italy there are places to go – assuming you make the move to evacuate soon enough.

    Japan has lived with its volcanoes and earthquakes for millenia – but New Zealand was uninhabitable at times, following episodes of crop-destroying volcanoes and – again – nowhere to go within rowing distance…. The Polynesians were amazing explorers though, and surely many of them must have missed landfall completely when they colonised such widely separated islands.

    Their rugby-playing proves their strength and skill, still, today!

  11. Uturuncu in Bolivia (in my opinion, the most likely next supervolcano, very dangerous but not so likely to erupt within soon)

    Lake Taupo in New Zealand (several large Holocene VEI6-7 eruptions, so this can be another likely “big one”)

    Also a new dead zone eruption, like in 1783. They occur once about every 200-400 years.

    • I agree Irpsit…
      Dead Zone regardless if it is from Veidivötn or Askja fissure swarm is the most likely large eruption. But, I do not think it will be that deadly.

      • Other dead zone eruptions might have had an impact but the problem is that they were not so recent as Laki, I reckon that Laki is hyped up in comparison to Veidivotn, Edlgjá or Vatnaoldur. We know many historical records from the events of Laki, but there are no records as I know of, of Edlgjá, Veidivotn or Vatnaoldur. They could have caused a volcanic winter and anomalies in Europe, but this is unknown. Tree ring analysis would be nice to compare 1783 with the other years of eruptions in the dead zone.

  12. Good to see you back and on top form Spica. I have missed you!
    I agree with Talla probably the most dangerous one is that ” dormant” one that is not monitored. Next to Vesuvius I would also add Campi Flegrei,. Lying mostly underwater, the area comprises 24 craters and volcanic edifices. Water and magma make for a real messy eruption, tsunamis and the area is so densely populated it would be difficult to evacuate so many people. Scary!
    cbus20122 has written concisely about the Japanese Volcanoes. that would be devastating.
    Every Volcano is potentially a hazard and causes some grief and hardship when they erupt even in less populated areas. One death is one too many and turns a volcano into a “Killer”

      • Linz cleaned the (tons and tons) of mud away. In some places one can still see that there was a flood but most damage is gone BUT a small village nearby called Goldwört was flooded heavily. After the mudwater was gone, the groundwater started pooring in. 90 houses are still flooded. A friend told me when you dig a whole only 5 cm deep it fills up with water within a few seconds.

    • Very nice. Thanks. Was totally unaware of this.

      Heavy Cypress stands occur all along the coast. The ones I usually see are about 40 miles inland along the bottom land next to rivers.

      Here is a lat and lon that is probably representative of what that stand may have looked like 52,000 years ago. This position is along the Choctawhatchee River at Cowford. This is one of the roads that I travel quite regularly.

      30.451157°N – 85.898283°W

      Due to recent rains, this whole region is probably inundated. Imagine the water level up about 10 feet. * over the parking area at Cowford on the south side of the bridge if you use street view. But the roadway and the bridge the view is from will be above water.

      I have to go down through here tomorrow, so If I remember, I’ll shoot a photo or two. (weather and traffic permitting)

  13. @CBUS:

    You know, you wrote so well on the Japanese Brothers in Arms above that I would love to see you attack them in a post 🙂

  14. Hm, this was a bit unusual and interesting for being at a boring place… (trying to not alert Daily Fail here), the interesting thing is the depth.
    Wednesday
    10.07.2013 18:28:59 63.613 -19.187 13.5 km 1.3 99.0 4.3 km SE of Goðabunga

  15. I would add the entire caldera zone of New Zealand as underestimated for danger.

    I’ve posted before about the Tarawera eruption; a bloody huge basaltic dyke that came up from the mantle with very little warning. Even with modern monitoring equipment, I don’t think we would have that much warning of such an event.

    Tarawera was bad enough, phenomenally energetic and violent, but my real concern is a similar event intersecting a large body of almost-eruptible rhyolite – and there may be an arbitrary number of such bodies lurking under the TVZ. THAT could be catastrophic; NZ is one of the few places in the world which I believe is potentially capable of going from zero to VEI7 or possibly even 8 with only days or weeks of precursory activity.

    Unlikely in our lifetimes, but supremely dangerous.

    • The paper that I referenced (“Silicic volcanism: An undervalued component of large igneous provinces and volcanic rifted margins”, S.E. Bryan, T.R. Riley, D.A. Jerram, C.J. Stephens, P.T. Leat, Geological Society of America, Special Paper 362, 99-120, 2002) noted a similarity between TVZ and SLIPs.

    • I really agree: New Zealand big ones are really underestimated and forgotten. All the hype goes for Toba or Yellowstone. But Taupo has shown a few big ones in Holocene, and other New Zealand ones have done very big ones in recent millenia. Its almost as threating as Indonesia or Central-South America.

    • Indeed, Mike. Irpsit mentioned Taupo and I don’t know how I forgot to put NZ in my list.
      Another bet would be an Indonesian volcano… they are mean… but not Bromo or Merapi (a “regular” killer) – something in Sumatra – I haven’t seen anything of significance there since the 2004 boxing day EQ/tsunami. It was an unbelievably hard blow on that whole area. I know, there is no proved relation between quakes and volcanoes, Caulle being an exception, but I wonder why John Seach keeps mentioning all the earthquakes happening around a volcano,,,
      Spica, you’ve made doomsdayers from us all ! 🙂

  16. OT → Asiana crash info. Flight Data Recorder “black box” data.

    From the Vid:
    The aircraft was below speed.

    The crew had noted that more speed was needed, and just a few moments before impact, had noted that they needed to do a “go around.”

    The Glide Slope Indicator for that runway was not available due to construction.

    … and, yet to be confirmed. I have seen on some news reports that one of the fatalities may have been due to the victim being run over by Fire apparatus.

    • There is a long shot ideo of the landing you can see that they clearly got too low on approach.
      If you can’t land such an aircraft without glideslope then you shouldn’t be flying as a capitan.
      I’ve landed at SFO myself, a bit like landing on an island or a 9,000ft long aircraft carrier, but,
      if you can’t plan an approach better than what is apparent…I’ve flown planes both large and small, they key here is a planned, stable approach. in good weather it is reliant if the ILS
      or glide slope or even any visual aids are working,

    • My main concern, is that they were below speed. Now, I’m not a pilot, but I do understand the dynamics involved. With low speed, nuanced changes in pitch to correct for elevation begin to create stall conditions.

      This is also the first statement (the guy interviewed) that indicated the plane had wobbled. All the other witness statements (to the press) have indicated no wobble.

      • On modern fly-by-wire aircraft there would be all sorts of warnings. Stick shakers, horns going off, I’d like to hear the the cockpit tape…BTW “reliant’ should have been “relevant”..
        Even the old DC-7 would have been shaking your teeth out 10kts above the stall..
        But there could have been low level shear, However there are some reports that the crew was
        blinded by a “bright light” from the ground.-don’t know what that means…

        • Yes I read that about being blinded. I have a strong suspicion that he’s trying to find an excuse for making a total balls up of the landing. No glide slope active? On a manual landing on a clear day and got it all wrong; probably used to lighter equipment and had only done 43 hours on the 777. So what was the more experienced co-pilot doing?

        • “bright light” from the ground.

          Infers that someone hit him with a laser or that someone else caused it. The end of that runway is a Loooong way from where someone could have hit him with a laser and been an effective deterrent at seeing the runway.

          Now, if they were using a military grade target designator… that might be a different story. An opthalmological exam would detect retinal burning in order to verify his claim.

          Sun glinting off of a windshield? Where ya gonna park the car?

          I’m thinking he’s grasping at excuses.

          • I agree with both of you glare can be a problem, but it is fishy- you said it Clive-‘Balls up.”
            and locked…

  17. if no one said it yet, we forgot Laacher See. Another volcano that last erupted VEI6, and sits right smack in the middle of Germany,highly populated area, and in the core of Europe.

    can’t imagine what that hypothetical ash cloud would do for Europe.

    • I did not forget Laacher See. At the end of the talk i will also talk a little about volcanoes in Austria. None is likely to ever erupt again, but people do not even know we have volcanoes here. And after that i ll mention Laacher See and the Eifel volcanic field. Because it is th closesest active volcano(es) to my area. But thanks for reminding me.

  18. From the parent post:

    Recently scientists found an even bigger eruption 3800 years ago which harmed people living in the Bronze Age called the Avellino eruption.

    From Wicker Peek at Ya

    A study published in 1990 by Vogel and others suggested that the Avellino Eruption was responsible in part for the climatic disturbances of the 1620s BC. The latter were verified by “tree-ring series” and “ice-core layers.” The authors had just obtained carbon dates of 3360±40 BP, or 1617-1703 calibrated BC. They were suggesting a coincidence of a number of eruptions, such as the Santorini explosion, that destroyed Minoan civilization.[7] The hypothesis remains unverifiable a generation later, due to the overall imprecision of the dates.

    From the Thera article, an olive tree under the tephra puts it at “1627 BCE and 1600 BCE with a 95% degree of probability”

    So, even with the fluctuating date details, that gives us two hefty eruptions within just a few years of each other. The Middle Kingdom of Egypt probably didn’t have much of a chance. The leaders after the Pharaoh Sobeknefru would have had unreliable crop production and much strife to deal with as Egypt entered the Second Intermediate Period.

    And remember, actual extinction events usually are from the coincidence of multiple stressors to a population (or culture) that it just can’t deal with at the same time.

    • I would actually argue that extinction events are more of a chain reaction of events that causes the climate to all go out of whack, not the coincidence. At least when referencing large-scale extinction events, there are a few things that have been noted as common for these events.

      Large impact events, flood basalt volcanism, and Anoxic ocean events all have been related to each other in a cause and effect manner, and all contribute towards mass extinctions in their own way.

      In a very very simplistic step by step process, it works like this:

      1. Large Impact event strikes the earth: The event itself causes an abrupt climate change while devastating any nearby lifeforms.

      2. If your species manages to survive the impact event, you then have something else to have fun with – an antipodal flood basalt event resulting from the directional impact of the comet or asteroid. While not as sudden as the impact event, the flood basalt event will gradually choke the climate, and may also form some mega-eruptions while gurgling out basalt.

      3. As the flood basalt causes problems on land, it’s even more devastating to oceans. Massive volumes of sulfur dioxide released over the course of hundreds of thousands of years during the flood basalt event eventually turns into Sulphate and is absorbed into the ocean. For those who aren’t familiar with agriculture, Sulphate is essentially fertilizer. It’s good in small amounts, but when a large volume comes into a water system, it results in algae blooms, jellyfish blooms, and the overgrowth of bacteria that literally choke all oxygen out of a body of water, making it impossible for oxygen breathing life to exist. There are actually small slightly anoxic areas around the world today mostly caused by fertilizer runoff and pollutants in the ocean.

      4. The death of life in the oceans causes global food-chain collapse. In other words, it’s game over.

      • I’d mostly agree with this in outline… at least for the K-T (except that the boundary itself is half-way through the Deccan Trap sequence, so the coincidence must be fortuitous rather than causal). In that case, the situation was made worse by the Chixulub impact vaporising vast quantities of sulphates, leading to rather nasty acid rain problems… but that’s just the K-T.

        However… the far more severe Permo-Triassic event seems to have been a result only of the flood basalts in Siberia. There was speculation about an impact, but the evidence seems to be very weak to non-existent – at least for anything of a significant size. The problem with the Siberian Traps seems to have been that there was enough of it to cause all sorts of shenanigans – setting fire to massive coal deposits, for example, and there’s isotopic evidence for massive methane clathrate release as a side-effect of the CO2-induced warming.
        What I have no idea about is what caused the Siberian Traps to go berserk in the first place… anyone?

        • A core plume, or what is jokingly known as a superplume. A core plume is a hypothetical entity consisting of core material rising up from the core containing almost pure iron/nickel at very high temperature. There is though evidence found for the theory at the Kiirunavaara mine and at Norilsk.
          Only 3 are suspected. The Kiirunavaara Iron ore deposit, the Siberian Traps Norilsk Nickel deposit, and the current one eating away the craton under Ol’Donyo Lengai. When the current one comes through we are in for a rough ride. But that is most likely a few million years away.
          A core plume is much hotter than a regular plume since it contains core material.

          I wrote a post about it a couple of months ago after I had studied the heat stress fractioning line at the new 1356 meter deep level at the Kiirunavaara mine.

        • Keep in mind, the PT extinction event was much longer ago, and the impact crater may be bured miles deep beneath oceanic sediment by now. The other possible problem is that if the impact crater was subducted, there would be zero evidence of it outside an iridium layer, which I believe does exist around the PT boundary (although some suspect iridium can come deep inside the earth’s mantle as well as asteroids).

          • Agreed about the crater being likely gone, but there are other bits of evidence you would expect, including iridium (which as you say is ambiguous due to volcanic sources). Unfortunately, the data for it are also very localised, and an order of magnitude lower than the K-T spike, so this could be a result of the volcanism (which was also in part pyroclastic). You’d also expect other evidence: tektites, for example, or shocked quartz grains. Both occur through many of the K-T boundary sections, but are rare or absent from the P-T, which has now been very intensely studied. Claims of stishovite textites have been disputed, and the spherule abundance is very low. There were claims for shocked quartz, but as far as I know, these have all been questioned, and some have been shown to be tectonised rather than shocked.

            Probably the best evidence for a bolide impact seems to be the existence of fullerenes containing helium with non-terrestrial isotopic ratios… but that too seems to be treated as less convincing than it was when it first came out (although I’m not quite sure why – people seem to have just drifted away from its significance). Overall, I’m getting the impression that there might have been a bolide impact around then, but if so it was small – perhaps a tenth the size of the KT impact. Such events are not all that rare, and they don’t normally cause flood basalts, or mass extinctions. In other words, if there were was a near-planet-killing impact… we really ought to see more evidence, even without a crater.

  19. I would add Redoubt in Alaska, which has been active. At least a VEI 3 in 1902. It is within a hundred miles of half the population of Alaska and controls port access to Anchorage.

    http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/activity.php?volcname=Redoubt&eruptionid=437&page=basic

    Aniakchak Caldera in Alaska formed around 3600 years ago in a VEI 6. The caldera is 10 miles across.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Aniakchak

    Okmok Caldera in Alaska had a 6 mile caldera and cooked of VEI 6 eruptions 8300 and 2400 years ago. Cheers –

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okmok_Caldera

  20. hmm unexpected seems the most likely to cause problems.
    I notice nothing is suggested for africa or the middle east yet (are there jut a lack of dangerous volcanoes?)

    just installed googleearth for the first time – trying to figure out what this circular feature was
    20.784363,34.631538
    and now I want to know what this one here is too
    21.615303,35.14781

    hmm I could try mapping africa from home – where are the place names, elevations etc – sigh….

  21. Welcome 5ive.
    No ruminations or anything useful from me today as I have had a Lurking sort of Day! That means s@*T Happens…Not just a little teensy weensy bit, but a whole Tonne load dropping from a great height!
    Customer wants item he bought like tomorrow.. It’s BIG. I need to send it courier. Courier needs delivery address and PHONE number. Customer takes exception and refuses phone number. Get the picture? Stress levels caused by distance selling rising as fast as Hekla’s magma before an eruption. Courier due within half an hour for pickup…Customer gives in and sends phone number… I go to print out the label and waybill for parcel. Printer tells me “NO INK!” Printing Ceased… Foiled Sod and his law by going next door to Sis in law and use her PC… Gets label and way Bill just as UPS Van draws up.. I Beat Sod and his Law… As UPS drives off next door lady in tears on doorstep… she’s locked herself out….Husband to the rescue and does his burgler bit through open bathroom window….high up so long ladder… and pulls his bad arm and back as he falls through said open window…. Been to Doc he has to go hospital… Back home with prospect of him returning to the operating table soon…..and yesterday we booked a few days away for the first time in three years. Sod and his law has his revenge…..I think we will go away if possible and just potter round country village and hotel.
    OK! Back on topic
    Reading so far pretty well every Volcano looked at is going to cause someone somewhere problems….that’s a lot of stored up trouble. Nobody has mentioned Iceland Volcanoes apart from Laki…. to Icelanders, no matter how patient and stoic they are there is still danger and disaster possible. Look at Haemey. That nearly wiped out the living of a community. I too looked at African Rift Volcanoes.. a disaster for those nearby but the population is not too dense near most of them so are they “less dangerous?”
    It’s very hard to quantify what “Dangerous” means in this context. Bob threatened danger to a whole community does that make him less dangerous than a Hekla eruption that may not affect many and cause more of an inconvenience to the world in general but havoc and a load of fallout if the wind blows toward Reykjavik, not to mention people and animals breathing in the ash. Now lets have a look at Iceland today…..
    The strain looks interesting at hekla
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/strain/1sec/index.html
    and as Carl mentioned something is hammering under Vatnajokull
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/hus.gif and also here

    In fact all SILs down the western side of Vatnjokull show quite aggressive activity. Is this because the SILs are new and more sensitive……..or.?????

    • ah yes good question about the tech advancement – that could be it – anyone actually ‘know’ ?

      • Technoskew is a real phenomena. You find it when looking at most seismic catalogs over long periods of time.

        I ran across a study done on a European catalog where the researcher was trying to get a better handle on background seismicity. When binned, the slope of a linear curve over segments of time can be seen to change as the detection rate for quakes goes up with the new equipment.

    • Yes, hope your hubby gets better soon, maybe the holiday could help or amend it to inculde a Spa trip?

      Ireland has a long waiting lists for Hospitals . As for the Sil, I agree with you, soon is all I can say.

  22. I’d say, volcanoes of Indonesia are probably the most dangerous, remember the 19th century Tambora and Krakatau eruptions?

    Not only that, the size of Indonesian population should be considered too, 230 million people live there

    Also, the volcanic chain from Anak Krakatau to Tambora is also dangerous, because the majority of Indonesians live in Java (60%, AFAIK),

    To be watched are Anak Krakatau, Galunggung, Merapi, Kelud (AKA Mt. Broom), Semeru, Agung, Rinjani, and Tambora. They had large eruptions in the past and now are surrounded by dense population areas.

    Also, calderas here and there (Maninjau, Batur complex, Tengger, Tambora) and that deceptively beautiful Supervolcano (Toba)

    • I agree. My number one dangerous volcano is Mayon. It is overgrown, highly active, and have formed a ring fault. The top crater have grown very narrow and can not any longer take the full pressure of an eruption and will sooner or later be blown away. The ring fault form the line where the future caldera will be. So, in a short geological timespan we will have a 8 km caldera formation at Mayon. And with 5 million people within a 50 km radius out from the volcano it will be very deadly.

      • Ouch, never thought of that before, that’s the entire population of Norway around that 50 km radius. Would the eruption be Tambora-esque in occurence? That would be awfully nasty…

        • It could be either a mountain overload like Mount St Helens or a full caldera formation. It all really depends on the amount of available volatiles and the amount of pressure in the system.
          The last eruption though caused a side vent to form in the ring fault. So, it is anybodys guess really. At best it could mean that a side vent forms. But, Mayon is my guess for being the most dangerous current volcanic system if I have to make one.

      • The top of my list would be the unknown one or the unexpected volcano. Could be any of the list from the post, something happens that was not planned and make things worse. Could be a surprise to us all. Just for the giggles, maybe a metor straight onto the Vatnajökull or Hekla area, size around 800 meters, just as most EU heads of states were in Iceland to welcome the country into the EU. Just to make sure, They are staying at hotel is around the lake lands. Love the post Spica

        😀 Maybe I should direct Hollywood movies?

        • Well… as you wish. Can’t make it happen, but I can obtain some variables to help ruminate upon the scenario…

          Hydraulic hammer is a phenomena where pressure exerted into a closed fluid system travels along the various pipes and fittings, exerting a force and occasionally breaking fittings. It’s most commonly seen in the form of chattering pipes when a faucet is left on at just the right amount to cause a resonant effect. In the fire service, you try to lessen the effect on installed water mains by slowly opening or closing the valves. I’ve seen instances where neighborhood hot water heaters were imploded due to fire trucks, but that was from taking such a hard suction on the hydrant rather than a fast opening valve.

          Anyway, impart a shock to one end of a piping system, and the shock will travel throughout… with varying effects.

          Your scenario. 800 meter rock smacking into Vatnajökull. For the sake of argument, I assumed that it was made up of porous rock of about 1500 kg/m³. probably a good approximation of a cometary nucleus or a fragment of one. Typical comets have a relative speed of about 51 km/s, I shaved it back to 45 km/s, putting it towards the less energetic end of the scale. The impact angle was selected as 45°, which is about the middle of how something of that nature would be oriented. ( 0° would be parallel with the surface, 90° would be straight down. All impacts are somewhere between the two)

          Here’s what ya get…

          The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 88100 meters = 289000 ft
          The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 44 km/s = 27.3 miles/s
          The impact energy is 3.90 x 1020 Joules = 9.32 x 104MegaTons.
          The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 1.62 km by 1.15 km

          In other words, a focused shotgun blast.

          Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

          Transient Crater Diameter: 10.4 km ( = 6.45 miles )
          Transient Crater Depth: 3.67 km ( = 2.28 miles )

          Final Crater Diameter: 14.2 km ( = 8.8 miles )
          Final Crater Depth: 657 meters ( = 2160 feet )
          The crater formed is a complex crater.
          The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 2.45 km³ = 0.589 miles³
          Roughly half the melt remains in the crater, where its average thickness is 28.9 meters ( = 94.9 feet ).

          And here is where it gets interesting from my point of view…

          Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.9

          That would be one hell of a hydraulic hammer to the magmatic systems tied into it.

          I’m not a scientist, but I think it might initiate activity along the fissure swarms leading off from it.


          All impact calculations performed with the Impact Effects Program at http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

          • Geo, wooah.. What a mind. Thanks for doing that, great fun to read.

            I have seen this theroy doing the rounds in the last few years,

            “The impact hypothesis[edit]

            In addition to these processes, impact events such as ones that created the Addams crater on Venus and the Sudbury Igneous Complex in Canada are known to have caused melting and volcanism. In the impact hypothesis, it is proposed that hotspot volcanism can be triggered by certain large-body oceanic impacts which are able to penetrate the thinner oceanic lithosphere, and flood basalt volcanism can be triggered by converging seismic energy focused at the antipodal point opposite major impact sites.[39] Impact-induced volcanism has not been adequately studied and comprises a separate causal category of terrestrial volcanism with implications for the study of hotspots and plate tectonics.”

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantle_plume

          • Well, if you want to dig into it a bit, try

            Antipodal hotspots and bipolar catastrophes: Were oceanic large-body impacts the cause? Jonathan T. Hagstrum

            The idea does have a few problems and some detractors to the idea. The hotspot lists themselves vary from researcher to another, the list that Hagstrum uses is a compilation of some of the more popular lists. But in general, what defines an area as being a “hotspot” is not firm and can change based on the opinion and evidence presented.

            A few posts ago, Carl noted that the scaling of the forces for Nuclear blasts and the effects on the earth as a whole are massively different. This also applies to impacts. At the time, we were ruminating on the CMB “debris slides” that could unleash a plume up into the mantle and whether a nuke could cause one. (as occasionally stated by the “easily excitables.”)

            Personally, I think antipodal hotspots are still plausible, but you do have to back out plate motions in order to get an alignment to impactors. In any impact event, the shock forces are going to decline as you move further from the point source. Events such as the KT impactor may have enough raw energy to overcome this loss, (estimated at 100 Teratons of TNT… you know, 100 x 1012 tons) triggering or enhancing an ongoing LIP formation when the shockwave coalesced (Deccan Traps) But I don’t think smaller impactors are going to have as great an effect.

            The Formation of La Garita Caldera (Fish Canyon Tuff) is listed by Wikerpedia as roughly the same as 240 gigatons of TNT… and VEI 8.5.

            • The discovery of ancient hidden caldera such as the La Garita caldera make me wonder if there are other larger calderas out there. I feel like given the earth’s history and the fact that there is much we don’t know about, it would seem rather likely.

              I feel like there had to be some pretty massive eruptions going on during flood basalt volcanism outside the massive basalt floods. With that much heat upwelling, it should have melted enough rock to form numerous yellowstone sized volcanic areas (at least that’s how I see it). The problem here is that evidence of such events through caldera formations would most likely be covered in an inordinate volume of basalt, making them impossible to find.

  23. And another sweet spotter…
    Thursday
    11.07.2013 16:13:11 64.481 -17.769 13.6 km 1.1 99.0 2.1 km ESE of Hamarinn

  24. Hi

    Here is the update with supbplots for El Hierro up to yesterday (no new quakes today published)

    The south view (up left) shows well some interesting litle cluster at the end of the video.

    • Thanks dfm. 🙂 It’s important to watch even when little appears to be happening. It’s a hard fact to grasp that even if few quakes are happening the Magma beneath a “Hot spot” is still moving, Being shoved from below it fills up nooks and crannies. Rather like the stew pot simmering on the back burner the lid stays on and the contents move quietly. Turn up the heat and the whole lot boils over with enough energy to lift the lid .

  25. Another Good morning from the UK. Hot and sunny. Just what a summer should be. I am about to get ready and go over to my allotment for an hour or so whilst it is still coolish. It’s too hot later for strenuous soil preparation or weed removal.
    Did my usual morning check of Iceland and after several days of absolutely nothing,,,,, Yesterday and the day before was back to business as usual. After an almost blank canvas the resulting blue and yellow spots show well where rifting has occurred. It matches perfectly, all the diagrams that show the lines of rifting. OK! this isn’t a great discovery, but what it does lead me to think about is the timing and the effect on Volcanoes. For a few days (5th,6th,7th, July especially) the rift under Iceland was exceptionally quiet. Then it starts again. This shows clearly on all SIL records. Even on the new SIL at Husbondi. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/hus.gif
    Simple question. Does Rifting activity energy get passed on to Volcanic magma chambers? If this is the case then the more active the MAR under Iceland the more likely “plume fed” volcanoes are could be nudged into action. Remember the busy period with the TFZ? Hekla was irritable too around then. Hekla is an oddity , not like the “plume” Volcanoes further east.
    I am not sure where I am going with this. Just observations and ruminations.
    Also to keep hammering on about, is my insistence that no action is as important to observe and note as action, in any scientific study or observation.

    • https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2013/05/
      Carl wrote an excellent post on the Volcanoes under Vatnajokull that sort of answers my question above.
      But I remember a discussion years ago on a different Blog where the argument was against earthquakes caused by rifting triggering eruptions of Volcanoes away from the rifting Zone.
      For any newbies to this site or to Iceland’s Geology this Post is a must read and is easily understood.

  26. If I don’t get eaten again 😦 Is number 2. Schmidt

    I think a media frenzy leads to amide – and amides can be formed in the Schmitt reaction.
    Mechanism of the Schmidt Reaction
    Reaction of carboxylic acids gives acyl azides, which rearrange to isocyanates, and these may be hydrolyzed to carbamic acid or solvolysed to carbamates. Decarboxylation leads to amines.

    • Hi Alison … first off I have rescued all your posts from the vaults!
      Ding for No 2 Schmitt … yep media = amide! 2 points

      Please could you come to the new post with your word square answers or it will get too coonfusing for everyone!

  27. I have never understood why people think Naples will be destroyed by a volcanic eruption. Naples is not a new city, it has existed on the same sight for the last 28 hundred years and has yet to be destroyed by Vesuvius despite its close proximity to the volcano.

    • From a short-lived human perspective for the peace of mind one may come to the opposite conclusion, that Naples will never be destroyed, i.e. in one´s lifetime. But on a short geological time scale the probability of a devastating eruption has to be considered and people should be prepared to evacuate.
      The whole Naples metropolitan area is build around and on top of three active volcanic systems which in all likelyhood will erupt some day. When and how much, noone knows.
      See also:
      https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/the-worlds-most-ill-begotten-piece-of-real-estate/

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