End of the world is currently postponed

Be honest, this is how you envisage the end of the world. Of course there would be a huge sign so we are sure to not miss when it is happening.

Be honest, this is how you envisage the end of the world. Of course there would be a huge sign so we are sure to not miss when it is happening.

The doomsayers and nibiruists seem to have their own sad little volcanic fashion trends. After their favorite volcano, Yellowstone, was found to be suffering from a serious case of dying they seem to have moved on. I expected them to find a new supervolcano to go on endlessly about. This time they though concocted something unexpected.

The new trend is getting overly excited over the number of small eruptions that is currently ongoing. It started with one of them finding 4 active volcanoes. The next one found seven and one daredevil apparently could count all the way up to 10.

So, what is so dangerous with a few volcanoes having small eruptions? Well, the nibiruistic blogosphere seems to live in places where the weather have been cold lately. So, the going fashion trend is that the sum of small volcanic eruptions put together is causing a new ice age. In the normal hyperbolic fashion they have declared that the beginning of December has been record cold. We are surely doomed, by their ignorance. Let us now take a look at it with a bit more measured eyes.

Lately it seems like the Ice Age and Snowball Earth is back in fashion among those who dream dark dreams about the end of times.

Lately it seems like the Ice Age and Snowball Earth is back in fashion among those who dream dark dreams about the end of times.

First of all, how many volcanoes are erupting currently? Well, I spent my weekend chasing actively erupting volcanoes on a scale I have never done before. I came up with 37 erupting volcanoes. This list is probably wrong since some volcanoes most likely have quit erupting, and a few new have started. I found 19 constant erupters like Santiaguito, Sakurajima and Stromboli, 13 frequent erupters like Etna and 7 other less frequent erupting volcanoes like Jebel al-Zubair and Nishinoshima.

The observant reader probably finds a pattern here. It seems like we are mostly talking about volcanoes that have erupted for years, decades, or even thousands of years. I am not going to make a statistical record of how many volcanoes have been erupting at the same time down the ages, but I bet the number have been roughly the same for at least the last couple of thousand years.

Pinatubo and Grimsvötn

Grimsvötn 2011, the ash column that exploded out of the Glacier reached a maximum of 15 kilometers. Image copyright by International Business Times and used under fair usage.

Grimsvötn 2011, the ash column that exploded out of the Glacier reached a maximum of 15 kilometers. Image copyright by International Business Times and used under fair usage.

Okay, but let us now look into the current eruptions going on. After all, not all eruptions are equal. We know that a large enough explosive eruption will have an impact on the climate. After all, we know that the 1991 VEI-6 eruption of Pinatubo caused a small dip in the global average temperature during the same year. Pinatubo is the smallest known eruption to have had a proven effect on the global average temperature. So, a number of smaller eruptions should have the same effect shouldn’t it?

VEI-scaling

Graphic of the VEI-scale. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

Graphic of the VEI-scale. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

This supposition though contains two faults. First one is a lack of knowledge about how the VEI-scale works. A VEI-6 eruption equates to 10 cubic kilometers of dense rock being blasted into the air. A VEI-5 is one tenth of that, and so on down to the VEI-1 eruption blasting out 0,00001 cubic kilometers of dense rock. The last known VEI-4 eruption was Grimsvötn in 2011, it was roughly 1/50th the size of Pinatubo and it did nothing to the global climate. Same goes for the slightly more famous 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull that was an even smaller VEI-4 eruption compared to Grimsvötn.

For those who sat in front of their computers and watched the awesome power of the Grimsvötn eruption or Eyjafjallajökull it is sobering to think that It would take more than 50 of them going at the same time to come up to the size of Pinatubo. But, hey we have 37 eruptions, that should have an effect shouldn’t it?

Still not getting the VEI-scale. The eruptions going on right now are small compared to Grimsvötn. On average I would guess each of them reach a VEI-2 at best. Put together that does not even give a VEI-4. And we know that VEI-4s do not create any effect on the climate.

I mentioned that there was one thing more that the doomsayers does not understand with the VEI-scale, and that is that the height of the ash column is a factor. First of all, we know from measurements that the Eruption column from Pinatubo was 34km and that Grimsvötn peaked at 15km. Now, a VEI-2 peaks in the 1 – 5 km range and a VEI-3 is in the 3 – 15 km range. Of course, time is also a factor, so a 3 km ash column over a long time can slowly build from a VEI-2 into a VEI-3 eruption.

Why now is the column interesting? Well, to affect global weather the ash have to get really high up into the atmosphere. General theory here seems to be that you need to have ash injected at a height above a minimum of 30 kilometers to affect global weather. Otherwise the ash will only have a regional effect. And, remember that all Pinatubo did was lowering the average global temperature with 0.5C for the year of 1991, which is actually within the normal fluctuation range. Anyhow, not even 100 VEI-2 eruptions would affect global weather.

Duh, you forget the effect of the gasses! No, I did not, the gasses are actually scaled pretty perfectly along with the VEI-scale. So forget gasses being a factor.

Conclusion

The island forming eruption of Nishinoshima, an eruption that might with time reach a VEI-rating of 3.

The island forming eruption of Nishinoshima, an eruption that might with time reach a VEI-rating of 3.

Every fact points towards our current age being one of the least volcanically active. Still we have continuous volcanic activity all over the globe, but it is just the few very large ones that have an effect on the global climate. And as recent studies done at Lake Turkana in Kenya shows we now know that even the largest eruption in the last 2.2 million years (Toba) did not have as massive effect on the climate or human survival as previously believed.

In the real world volcanoes are increasingly proving to be really bad at changing the global weather. At least the type of volcanism we see in our current geological age. Even a Toba event has one serious drawback when it comes to affecting the global weather, the ash will fall down comparatively quickly, and as the new figures from Lake Turkana tells us, that falling down is happening much faster than previously believed for the ultra-large events.

Regarding the global temperatures, the latest figures are for October and they show that October was the 244th consecutive month with a temperature above the average of the twentieth century. Nothing points towards December being an exception, but I will wait for the figures to be released in February before saying that it is so, even though my local weather has been pretty average.

Next week I will either blow up Verneshots or Stephen Baxter and his ridiculously unscientific novel “Flood”. Which one depends on my mood and what my readers prefer to have blown up. One thing is sure, I will go VEI-8 on one of them!

CARL

Etnameter (ECPN, z-value) by INGV

Advertisements

243 thoughts on “End of the world is currently postponed

    • I don’t know, the Beliebers seem to have left the building, or we have somehow broken them and not fixed them up properly. I guess those who from time to time came here have gotten tired of getting hard factual answers to their nonsense.
      I am a firm believer that tough love works. If you just tell tham that it is nonsense openly, and then tell them the scientific truth, and repeat it a couple of hundred times you might save a few of them.

      But really, I do not give a damn about the hard core Beliebers, what I care about is trying to stop other people from becoming Beliebers, and those are saveable. I think we have made a good dint in the recruitment into the Nibiruist corner just by existing.
      Why do I think we save people? Well, I think that most Beliebers once started as open-minded people that could learn. If they end up here we get mentally sound people, if they end up there a few of them will Belieb in Nibiruism and most will loose their volcanic interest since there is so much dung out there.

  1. Excellent article. Let’s worry about the nasty little everyday problems that await each of us, like hitting one’s head on the corner of the cupboard in the kitchen or finding some letter advising of an unpaid invoice or the likes. Not to speak of slipping in the bathtub or a piece of a balcony falling off right the moment you’re walking beneath it (does happen a lot in Catania where some buildings crumble even without earthquakes) …

        • Sadly even cheese will kill you, even though I find that a worthy way to go…
          As someone once said in a joking, but true, fashion. Life is a sickness with 100 percent mortality rate. Instead of worrying they should grab a piece of newly baked bread, a wedge of cheese and a bottle of wine and head out into nature and just have a good time.

        • Flip flops are probably far more dangerous than socks. Not sure how many people die from them although I once thought I was going too! Walking home age 18, tripping over a kerb, (no alcohol involved, sadly. 😉 ) breaking and taking off toenail down to half the length of the nail!!!!! OH that might not kill but you may just wish the end had been sudden! Walking home a mile with blood pouring from the toe is not a good thing to have to do. That happened to me 45 years ago and I still have trouble with that same toenail ingrowing as the nail bed never properly recovered. Yes, far more concern than a Mayan doomsday.

        • For me it’s the warm comfy house shoes that one of the kids got me. Damn they are comfortable, but they are treacherous. Sole has poor grip, and the ability of your foot to slide around inside of it magnifies the danger.

          At least with a flip flop, you have that single strap between your toes to steer the flip flop if it kicks out to one side. Failing that, at least it gives you some indication of the direction the flip flop is going and you can shift appropriately.

          Idea for entrepreneurs. Steel toed flip flops with a steel shank for the insole, and a bit of ankle support.

    • The good news is that the world is not likely to end any time soon. The bad news is that it won’t do it before the credit card payment is due. 😕

  2. You might make a lot of money of that Carl. Maybe we don’t need prediction of eruptions, just someone who keeps volcanoes from erupting 😀

    (just kidding, in reality volcanic eruptions also do a lot of positive things.)

    • I almost don’t dare say it, but I am writing a popular science book on that subject combining paleonthology and volcanology. I am planing to put in a short part of it as a teaser before christmas.

      • Well, you know my opinion on the “2nd” Eden and it’s location. That monster Toba eruption would have fertilized the bejeevous out of that valley. The time period from when the ash was laid down, until if became lush is about right. Most of the nasty volatiles in the ash would have been leached out by about 9000 to 10000 years ago.

        Almost a perfect preparatory event to make a lush fertile valley. That, plus the four rivers feeding into it off of several watersheds and glaciers… and the still extant springs. It would be the perfect spot.

    • She is definitely on the “go” now… seems to be one of the softly starting paroxysms in the making. Not that it seems to be related to how violent they become in the end.

  3. Good Article.
    End of the World? Isn’t that modern slang for last year’s iphone model? As in “that’s soo, like, end of the world!” 😉

  4. Article reminds me of the recent 2.6 mag earthquake in the Celtic Sea off Ireland’s south coast (4 Dec 2013). Though noteworthy because Ireland has relatively few EQs, it nevertheless represents a rather ordinary fault slip event in a sedimentary basin with a minor gas/oil field (http://www.gsi.ie/News/Earthquake+off+the+coast+of+West+Cork.htm).

    Yet some of the Irish media, not surprisingly, went OTT:

    “Cork has been rocked by an earthquake for the first time since records began more than three decades ago”

    “AN EARTHQUAKE with a magnitude of 2.6 magnitude occurred off the coast of west Cork yesterday morning causing widespread panic and fright”

    …and that kind of thing. Apart from a biscuit tin falling off a shelf in West Cork causing a dog to bark, no damage done. Still, the conspiracy theorists are turning the event into everything from “secret fracking” to “Ireland’s next mega-tsunami”. Good job the EQ didn’t happen on Christmas Day!

    • Would be the first time a 2.6 made a biscuit can fall off a shelf. 🙂
      Here the +4s make it into the news about once every five years. Odd thing is that people mostly seem happy when they occur. Kind of like some twisted sort of national pride… “We also have quakes!”

      Most often though anything showing up here on that scale is a mining blast though.

      • It’s the “I rode that!” effect. I still take pride in the itty bitty Mag 3 that happened when I was in San Diego. It’s not anything significant, but it did clue the geologists into a fault line that they didn’t know about. Runs right up the middle of San Diego harbor and out past one end of the airport. (Langley Field). It’s related to the Elsinore Fault which is the dominant nearby fault-line.

        The Elsinore, and San Jacinto work in conjunction with the San Andreas to accommodate the major plate motion in the area.

  5. Good piece, Carl. Did not know the end had been postponed. “mrgreen”
    Probably good for Christmas Shopping.
    OT – FYI the video piece posted in last post, about Cod and such. Its “THE” show of all TV Shows in Iceland, premiered on New Years Eve of all years.
    Its a revue of all funny (or not) things that happened in the last 12 months in Iceland, presented in prepped up or stylished non-political mode. And we were battling Scots over Mackrel previously that year, not any ordinary Cod war references.

  6. And IMO auto detecting and updating is still broken. Thre was tremour in Thordarhyrna about half hour ago. No steady runblings yet (meaning eruption is not starting).
    *not expert*

  7. On the topic of gases from volcanic eruptions.

    The main player is SO2. Specifically, SO2 that gets into the stratosphere. If the plume doesn’t deposit it there directly, the SO2 will convert to sulfate before it ever has enough time to reach the tropopause and drift across (diffuse?) through natural circulation.

    So… the plume has to punch through in order to be effective at getting the SO2 there. Once that happens, it takes about two months for the SO2 to become sulfate. Once that happens, the sulfate begins to clump into larger and larger particles, as the aerosol particles grow larger, they begin to sediment out and drift back down to the surface (gravity). From a single eruption plume, all of the sulfate from it is effectively gone from the stratosphere after about 80 months… giver or take.

    Derived from work found in Bluth et al.

    A bit about the plot. Four classes of eruption are represented. Moderate and Large, Winter and non Winter. The SO2 to Sulphate conversion rate is the same for all, but the sedimentation rate varys based on size and what part of the year it is.

    Now, Carbonyl Sulfide (COS)? Different story, but I have yet to find much on the life cycle of that long lived sulfur compound. Let alone volcanic emission rates or effectiveness of transport to the stratosphere. My guess is that COS is going to be more of a factor for flood basalt events. And Tolbachik is the closest we have come to one of those in recent time. It’s pretty damn puny compared to what Iceland can easily do in the Dead Zone.

    So far, the Dead Zone has been a hard nut to crack. Even for the professionals that study it for a living.

    Note: COS is very stable in the troposphere, in the stratosphere, hard UV light can dissociate COS and allow it to form sulfate.

    • I like this, it shows that gasses has a tendency to also be gone fairly rapidly, albeit not as fast as ashes. Which they should not be. Yeah! Another win for science 🙂

  8. OT: Reporter bashing.

    From LBC 97.3 website.

    “Two people, a man of 20 and a 17-year-old girl, who are understood to be residents of the same house in Greenford Road, were arrested in connection with the ‘killing’.

    Notice the last word. “killing”. Why the quotes? The guy is dead, that is pretty much a given. Police even have an idea that he was killed in a fight involving three white males.

    Unless there is a possibility that the guy just spontaneously died, adding the quotes is obfuscating the nature of the event. I can understand that WHO was responsible may still need to be determined, and that stating a specific suspect did it can skew a jury, but questioning whether he was killed or not seems a bit odd. Now, if it had been phrased “suspicious death,” that would infer that they aren’t really sure that he had been killed. If that’s what you mean, spit it out and say it. Sure, he could have had self inflicted bludgeoning injuries that led to his death, or he could have been jacked up on chocolate cake and OD’d. Say so. Dancing around with quotations in this case seems a bit stupid.

    As for the “grave” (see, I can do it too) someone may have just been looking for tephra samples.

      • Sent the pic to my stepson… bugger wants to hang one on the wall.

        At first he thought it was photoshopped, then I sent him the info on the Musk Deer (Moschidae family). Turns out that they are an earlier line of the Pecora order, whuch includes the deer family (Cervidae), they are akin to finding a Cro Magnon as your bank manager. They don’t have antlers and the fang size is evidently a sexual selection criteria.

        Back on the wall hanging idea. It would be an ideal conversation piece among redneck deer hunters (specifically the redneck variety) due to the fangs. And yes, it would serve as a great way to scare the shit out of novice hunters. “You miss that shot, this thing will come after ya, so stay in the stand until it’s down”

        Most of this is from “Wicker Pee’d on Ya“, so our lurking Biologist can confirm or reject this info.

  9. Meanwhile over on Mars the ‘end of the world’ left a bit of evidence behind….

    ‘The depression where Curiosity found the mudstones is only about 60m across, but the geologists on the science team believe this is just one small exposed area, and that the rock member (it has been dubbed “Sheepbed”) may extend up to 30 square km or more, hidden beneath other sediments.’

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25191316

    • You know, a Mars version of the end of the world would be the dullest and sadest version for our planet to go. Just slowly dwindling away.

      • RIP Mars……………………

        Or did she merely cool after she was she ripped by an impact that left Phobos behind, after he stripped of her atmosphere and oceans – though oddly enough we usually think of Mars as a He – astrologically that is?

      • Or… a different tone

        We can live beside the ocean, leave the fire behind.
        Swim out past the breakers, watch the world die.

        Actually, that line describes suicide by drowning. IMO, a horrific way to go. I’ve swam in water 18,000 feet deep, when I jumped in, I was quite concerned that I wouldn’t make it back to the surface in time to breath. (about a 50 foot, feet first drop, clutching the private parts and nostrils as I was trained to do in an actual emergency, which this wasn’t, but it was the only opportunity to actually try it out. In retrospect, it makes a lot of sense. While tryint to get back to the surface, the last thing you need is to freak out my water forcibly jammed into your sinuses, or having an impact of that level on your family jewels. The feet first idea is in case there is debris in the water. Diving is a no no unless you are trained at it. One Radioman found out why when he gave it a shot. He over rotated and landed flat on his back. They had to fish his arse out of the water from the motor whaleboat)

  10. A very quick Hello after a long journey home from Brighton.
    I am thoroughly todderlized and ready to snuggle down for a good night’s sleep.
    It was amazing meeting up with Shteve. We had a great time discussing a wide range of things. Three hours passed in a flash. What a lovely person Shteve is 🙂
    Interestingly we recognised each other immediately. How strange when we had never physically met.
    After we had gone our separate ways I thought “What a pity we had not had the time to go onto Brighton sea shore and got someone to photograph us doing a traditional VC dance….”
    Perhaps it was just as well we didn’t, as it was rather cold and maybe we could have been arrested!
    I thoroughly recommend meeting up with other VC members. In case I get the chance to meet more of you in the future, here is a picture of me (Granny B) drawn by my 3 1/2 year old Granddaughter so that I will be instantly recognised. The brown thing is Grandad B’s postman’s sack full of Christmas cards and parcels. 🙂
    http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x96/wildjinny/1-Top_zps653a8cb7.jpg~original

    I haven’t had time to really catch up with all the activity here. However I do hope Irpsit gets well very soon and I am so pleased to see Ursh again 🙂 I do worry when a member isn’t seen for a while.
    Good to see everyone else is on top form.
    A big wave to Renato, TGMcCoy and Lurking. 🙂 and Carl and …Oh! ….Big hugs to everyone… I missed you all last week. 🙂
    Time for bed…..I can’t stay awake any longer!

    • Welcome back Diana – I hope you enjoy this little diversion – for those of us with Mars or Venus in our hearts

      ‘Symbolic Volcano Facts and Thoughts
      Written by avenefica on October 10th, 2008

      I’ve been asked about symbolic volcano facts, and what volcanoes represent in the realm of philosophical symbolism.

      Culturally, we can look to Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of volcanoes and fire. As we would expect, her archetypal personality is a bit volcanic; she is honored for her wild, unpredictable, temperamental ways.

      Interestingly, legend indicates Pele as a sort of character-builder for humans. She presents trials and challenges to the human race with the expectation of producing strength and development within those she tempts. A neat page I found on Pele can be viewed here.

      Volcanoes themselves can be viewed as a sort of challenge symbol. Their formations are mountainous, and as such they represent the upward challenge our lives sometimes present. Protruding largely (and sometimes ominously) out from an otherwise unassuming landscape, volcanoes remind us of the goals we aspire to reach, the journey to get there, and the value of the climb to the top.

      Predominantly, volcano facts reveal the incorporation of all the elements, and as such, volcanoes hold special symbolic power as they encompass the power of Earth, Air, Water and Fire.

      Earth:
      As an earth symbol, the symbolism of volcanoes reminds us to:

      Hold steady to our most dominant anchor
      Ground ourselves
      Remain rooted in our foundational beliefs

      In this manner, volcanoes urge us to not be shaken by external ripples. Rather, sink deeply into the cool, rich strata that is the depth of our knowledge and remain there for solace, guidance and assurance that our foundations can serve as constant refuge.

      Air:
      As an air symbol, we see a cooling effect as well as the element of thought and communication. As we observe the life cycle of the volcano, we realize the element of air plays a symbolic role in asking us questions like:

      What kind of smoke signals am I sending out (am I communicating effectively)?
      What kind of effect are my thoughts having on my external events?
      Do my thoughts harden my experience, or heat things up allowing my proverbial magma to flow more freely?

      When we recognize the symbolism of air as a method of communication or thought – we can clearly identify the symbolic smoke of our ruminations.

      Water:
      A symbol of water is found in the form of flowing lava in symbolic volcano fact & lore. Fluid, burgeoning, and resistent to limitations lava reminds us of these points:

      Am I going with the flow?
      How can I more easily move through resistance?

      Water is an archetypal symbol of emotion, and as such, water asks us to take stock of our feelings. When water bears a message to us in the form of volcanic activity, it may indicate a need to enhance our calm. It may also indicate a need to identify some underlying rage and diffuse it.

      Fire:
      Lastly as a fire symbol, volcanoes speak to us of passion, action, creativity and power. When the element of fire explodes onto our philosophical scene, we may ask ourselves questions like:

      How can I ride this wave of passionate inspiration for all its worth?
      How can I heat up other areas in my life that need a little spicing up?
      Am I being called to take action in a situation I’ve been avoiding?

      Volcanic fire is complex in that it lurks beneath the surface for a period of time – mulling, brewing. After compiling tremendous pressure it explodes into stunning manifestations.

      This is a key symbolic point of volcanoes. For those of us who are called to the symbolism of the volcano, it is imperative we keep a watchful inner eye on our subsurface fires. We who gravitate to volcanic energy tend to hold our firey passions a little too close, and a little too long. If this is the case, envision letting off a bit of steam every once in a while to avoid cataclysmic (and usually self-destructive) explosions.

      However, when eruptions do come (and they will, it is the way of nature) remember regeneration, growth and renewal follow in its footsteps. The aftermath of volcanic explosions allow for a lush, richness of growth. Keep this in mind when passions run wild to the point of over-extension and ultimate release. In the wake of expression, recognize you’ve funneled a way to relief for yourself and others. You could even say trough a seemingly destructive act comes reconstruction and creation in its stead.

      I hope you have enjoyed these thoughts on symbolic volcano facts, but don’t let this post be your only point of reference.

      Take the time to meditate and contemplate all the complexities the volcano holds. Let Pele take you on a journey to her volcanic realms, and let the lava language of volcanoes roll through your psyche with all its revolutionary power.’

      courtesy of Avia
      http://www.symbolic-meanings.com/2008/10/10/symbolic-volcano-facts-and-thoughts/

      • Failing the contemplative aspect of it… run like hell.

        {Sorry, I had to say that, it made sense from the point of view of a human hell bent on surviving)

        Running is one thing we are idealized for… given a primate’s base chassis to work with.

        … and, being primates, we don’t always run the correct direction. “He” is always there, in our mind… waiting to make the wrong decision or give us bad advice.

        Note: “He” is not always male. Could just as easily be “She.” Invariably, the entity is always there, comforting us with stupid advice that may seem appropriate, but is not. I think that the entity, when you grow comfortable with it, and aknowlege it’s presence, allows us to persevere. To grit our teeth, bear down, and deal with the mishap, whatever it is. Because deep down, you know it could be worse or that there is more coming. It’s the thing that forces us to mentally adapt. For me, it motivated me to learn how to read weather charts and indicators. That way when my wife is freaking out about a storm, I can calmly tell her that the tornado is not likely… or that she had better get her arse down NOW! “He” (for me) is “grace under fire.” Not that there is anything graceful or artistic about scrambling for cover. But it is a kind of grace. After all, “grace” may be the only thing that saves your ass.

        (Religious connotation intended in the last sentance)

        • Thought of my old chief Pilot, Dave Kelly, who led
          the kind of life that would’ve required John Wayne
          to play him in a movie, he looked more like Billy
          Cyristol. His motto: “It isn’t so much the fear of death that bothers me,- its doing something stupid when you die that bothers me.”. He died at home in
          Bed at 85…

    • Ha Diana, what a fantastic illustration!! She’s caught the very essence of a VC regular. I think people would recognize us anywhere. I guess when they start opening the cash register at the supermarket and just giving us all their money we might have to think about readjustment but until then!

    • Hi Diana,
      Glad you got back safely, the coffee was pretty good, but not as good as the company… 😀
      That’s a great picture, I can vouch for how lifelike it is!!!
      Traditional VC dance? Is that the one involving barbecued hats?
      Here’s a schtreaming cam for Etna, not the worlds most reliable, and not great at night but schtill:
      http://www.radiostudio7.it/webcam.asp?web=11&id=11

  11. And now, the end is near
    And so I face the final curtain
    My friend, I’ll say it clear
    I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain
    I’ve lived a life that’s full
    I traveled each and ev’ry rhyolite
    And more, much more than this, I blew up my way

    The Chairman of the Board as an answer to Lurking above.

  12. On the subject of climate: The world has set a new record low. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cold-dis-comfort-antarctica-set-record-1358

    This is also interesting, as it is below the sublimation point of carbon dioxide. On further review, I think the best solution to global warming (if real) has been proposed here:
    http://judithcurry.com/2012/08/24/a-modest-proposal-for-sequestration-of-co2-in-the-antarctic/
    Basically, they suggest making wind-powered factories in Antarctica that freeze CO2 out of the air. This, and storage of the frozen CO2 would be no big deal in Antarctica.

    • It contained two nuggets…
      “scientists do routinely make naked 100 degree below zero dashes outside in the South Pole”
      Why in heavens name do they do that? Are they Finns?

      And…
      “Just because one spot on Earth has set records for cold that has little to do with global warming because it is one spot in one place”
      Quite true, and this is something people tend to forget time and again.

      Personaly I feel that someone should get those coordinates so I know where the hell I will never go.
      The spot in question is though apparantly a depresion next to a plateau, and as anyone from a wintery part of the world knows, it is that there are cold coles around that can be quite a lot colder than the surrounding are, this due to the fact that cold air sink and congregate. Those places are just miserable.

      • A member (sic) of my extended family once described peeing in the open when he was stationed in Antarctica: he said your urine freezes into explosive little shards ice before it even hits the ground. Apparently the sound it makes is the best part.

    • I have a better yet solution. In fact it exists already. It’s called the ocean. CO2 solubility in water is high and the energy is supplied by the waves so directly by the wind. When you see how difficult and costly it is to just have a few scientists teams on the continent for a few months at a time…..

      • NOT a good solution. This acidifies the ocean and upsets the balance of life. For example, moluscs, (Clams, snails, scallops) have a calcium carbonate shell. With more CO2, the ocean is more acidic and they can’t make their shells. Corals are affected, too. This is a real problem that we KNOW is happening, even if there is some uncertainty about AGW.

        • The buffering capacity for CO2 in the ocean is rather stupendous, and the point is mainly that nature has a really neat trick of taking care of CO2, it just transfers it via photo synthesis into plant life.

        • I have no fear for molluscs and the like (corals, for instance have been around for more than 500 million years and survived at least 2 major extinction events, so they’re pretty able to care for themselves, thank you).

          What I mean is that the antartic “solution” you propose as “the best” is just plain nonsense from an engineering point of vue – or from a general point of vue also.

          How do you bring the equipment in such a remote location ?
          What is the carbon footprint of “just” that operation.
          How do you maintain all this equipment when the temperature is so low and the place so remote and not accessible 6 months per year?
          Who will put the CO2 in the excavations ?
          How will the excavations be made?
          How do you finance such a project which will produce finally nothing (you’re not going to sell the captured CO2, so this also economic nonsense).

          On a similar plane, how are you going to build let’s say 1/5th of all the electric power generation of France in such an area (about 19 200 MWh). How long will it take ?

          So ocean acidification is happening just because the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere will get higher and the CO2 solubility in water is high (and gets higher for lower temperatures). Also don’t worry too much over that, in the end it will be transformed in chalk.

          So what can we do about it ? Frankly, nothing on your scale or mine, the main thing you or I can do is avoid having kids.

          Coal is still the first source of electric energy (by far) and will stay so for the next 30 years at least.

  13. And… in a sunnier part of the world they have a problem.

    Seems like someone have run off with the buoy that was parked on top of Bob. Or perhaps even Run over the Buoy, you cold drive pretty much a supertanker over Bob.
    Anyhow, it is gone, and the GPS that it contained is not sending any longer.
    They are asking that anyone who sees it tell them where it is, or return it to them.

    Personally I suspect “Oilblaster 2000” to have a new flake in the paint…

    http://vulcanoelhierro.es/boya-vulcano-desaparecida

    • I blame the government of El Hierro. Completely, in the loss of their buoy.

      Had they not poo-pooed away the existance of Bob, or it’s formation in a vain attempt at not scaring off investors for their Green Energy Greed… they would have had a thriving tourist attraction that many places can not offer. Complete with Souvenir trade. No need to make off with expensive equipment when you can pick something up from the local shop. They are easier to get, and less likely to get you prosecuted if they catch you with it.

      Imagine if they had ROV equipped tourists boats loitering around with the video feed up on a large screen monitor as the ROV explored the then active Bob. Hell, they could have put one or two of their Geologists at work explaining what they were seeing, answering questions, and recording the data for use at their geophysics lab in exchange for their time.

      They probably could have scored $50 to $100 a head for an excursion like that. It would quickly offset the cost of the gear, and provided relatively inexpensive quality on site scientific information.

      The tether of the ROV would have allowed the vessel to stand off at a safe distance.

      .. yep, they missed a chance to score on tourism. Even at this late date, just the bouy over Bob is worth the risk of stealing. It’s amazing that they didn’t take a route such as this, since the early history of El Hierro had it as a spa resort for it’s mineral waters. Nope. We got inane dismissive comments from their government about having underwater photo contests of the cone or road races through higher than normal noxious gas clouds as an effort to diminish the danger of what was going on. That is the sort of idiocy that I would expect from my government… it’s right up their alley and within character. (Guam has yet to tip over, as feared by Congressman Hank Johnson) Oh yeah, Giants need midgets.

      • I am amazed… Why does not the other senators just kill him so they do not need to hear him speaking… Why do you guys not charge the Capitolium and throw him into a mental assylum?
        Oh my… Okay, we have fairly stupid leaders, and so does pretty much every country on the planet. But this just might be the record. I think by just getting rid of him the average intelligence amongst your leaders would go up quite a lot…

        • Why? Because some ancestors of ours came up with the idea of limiting the rule of a king and opted for more control over the affairs of state. This was about 1215. (Magna Carta). Eventually this idea was carried further and and actual government that was run by people that were elected by the will of the people was formed in the US. Basically, the US told the kingdom to pack sand. This was about 1776. The guys who framed that governement were fully aware of the philosophy of Plato, specifically “The Republic,” and put in place check and balances so that no one part of the government could run roughshod over the people. A few hundred years later, it was discovered that you could buy votes by funneling benifits and money to your district, and the congressman that shoveled enough money back home tended to get re-elected over and over. Get the electorate to a low enough intellect, so that they can’t see what is being done to them, and you have a free ride to sit in office as long as you want.

          I fear that the only way out of this mess, will be the grandest karma event of them all.

          Screen cap of “This is the End.

          George Carlin sums it up nicely. R.I.P. He managed to die of natural causes without any government assistance, unlike some other notables who do odd things, such as commit suicide by shooting themselves in the head… twice. And in some cases, with two different model handguns.
          Note: Some reports indicated that he used three separate guns in the slaying of his family before using two of them on himself. During his career, one of the accounts that he managed (cattle futures) netted 100% profit with no losses whatsoever for his client. Now, I’m not a trader, but I find that to be a bit unusual. Generally, there are wins and losses in brokerage accounts. Another gentleman managed to commit suicide in a muddy park, and keep their shoes clean… without driving there in a car.

          • Oh no… Are you talking about the Slushy Machine in the Capitolium breaking down so that they die from slushydeficiency? :mrgreen:

            (Do not ask how I know about the slushy machine…)

            Judging from the addendum Lurking has added… I guess he was not thinking about Death by de-slushyfication.

            • Yup.

              It doesn’t take long to realize that I have a great deal of disdain for bureaucracies.

              Just today I managed to get a cold chill up my spine when I saw some of the “beautification” that was being done along the interstate. Looking at it from a weapons usage point of view, they are spending a lot of time and effort in clearing sight lines and removing potential cover. Add to that the miles upon miles of brand spanking new “wildlife fencing” that can serve equally well at slowing down the movement of escaped primates… I have to wonder at what direction things are going here, and what plans are afoot. With luck, I’m just being overly paranoid.

              Normally, I don’t buy into the grandiose loon bin rants, but when it starts to logically correlate to stuff I see… I freak out a bit.

            • Unrelated yammering but on the point of my last.

              Here, in Escambia County, we had several of our county commisioners removed from office due to shady land deals and the violation of Florida’s Sunshine laws.

              This is the location of the property for the “soccer park” 30.486244° 87.256133°W Originally, it was a drive in movie theater that went bust.

              On the day of sentencing, one of the guilty (Willie Junior), who had information material to the convictions, crawled up under one of the buildings he owned and drank Anti-Freeze.

              Recently, a Judge over turned a request by council for W.D. Childers about the inability to depose Willie Junior and question his testimony.


              One of the questionable deals was an attempt to get the county to buy the property of a failed auto dealership in car city (a section of Highway 29) for use by the Sheriffs department. The Sheriff at the time had indicated that their facilities were perfectly adequate.


              A macabre side note… Willie Junior made his money via a chain of Funeral Homes that he owned.


              One of the reasons that I never went back to my hometown was that a painter had been killed in his work truck. Word was that he had information on a few of the PD that were involved in some house robberies. By the time I had retired from the USN, one of those officers had become the Chief of Police. I didn’t want anything to do with that town anymore. Now, I’m here in P’Cola, and the shit is still the same. Corrupt government as far as you can see. At least I had the opportunity to see a few of them put away this time. More recently, one of the maintenance crew for the County bus system was discovered using time and material in repairing his boat at the equipment yard. Allegedly, they took corrective action, but I’d my bottom dollar that it goes deeper than that. We have these full sized City buses that you rarely see any one using. They run these things all over the place, empty or full. They can’t use the little ruggidized 15 passenger vans like the other counties here (“RideOct”). No, they have to run these behemoths all day long. And these SOBs keep pushing for a gas surcharge to pay for them. Every time it gets voted down, they put it back on the ticket and push for it again. Hell, that’s they way they did the “Mariner Park.” They circumvented the county and did a vote only by city residents. It passed. Then it was contested because county money was involved and the Judge overrulled it because we didn’t get a say. They juggled the books to get the county money out of the equation and meet the Judges requirement. The dirty little secret is that if it fails, and Pensacola defaults on it, the county will still have to eat the cost.

              Yeah… politicians. They have a RUDE awakening coming when judgment day arrives.

            • I am getting eighties flashbacks here…
              Willie Junior started me thinking about other Juniors and Seniors and Sheriffs and shady deals. Please tell me that the Happy Sheriff was named Buford T. Justice and my day is done. 🙂

              Odd thing anti-freeze. It is common in prisons as a way of suicide together with some sort of liquid used to clean copy machines. It just does not feel like what a funeral director would pick as a way to put an end to things. They have access to far better stuff and should know how horrible a way of dying anti-freeze is.

            • No Bufford T here. Right now it’s a guy named Morgan. He’s not bad, but he is also a card, just like the rest.

              Many years ago, we had one looong termed Sheriff named Vince Seally. He kept having accidents involving a mysterious “White Pickup Truck” that fled the scene of the accident. One day, he had an accident and it was a pizza delivery truck. FHP got involved. The sheriff blew a considerable DUI score. That ended his “shoe in” elections.

              Ref the Funeral Home experience bit… “DING!” You get two points. That is what makes me quite suspect of his death.

            • Lurking, just because you’re paranoid does not mean they are not out to get you.

              GL Edit: I don’t think they are out to get me, specifically. I’m a good boy and keep my nose clean. But if it turns out that shit goes bad and the loons were right, I can’t guarantee that.

            • From Wikipedia… this corrects where Wille Junior was found. Turns out it was under a porch and not under a house. Much easier to pull off a “toss and go.”

              According to the state’s allegations, they paid a bribe of $200,000 to Childers, who in turn paid around $100,000 to Junior. Junior testified that Childers had given him a stainless steel “collard-green pot” full of cash a few days after the county closed on the property, which he transferred to a paper bag at his home. He also claimed to have received $10,000 from Joe Elliott directly, the day before the vote to buy the property. Wanting to deposit some of the money in a bank, but fearful of the government reporting requirements of depositing cash, he returned $40,000 to Childers in exchange for a cashier’s check for the same amount.Junior later received several other checks from Childers totaling $90,000.

              On April 10, Childers was found guilty of two charges of bribery and unlawful compensation.[13] Willie Junior was found dead under a down town homes front porach [sic] after a neighbor noticed a strange smell. His death or murder never really came to light.

            • Uhm… Not bright chaps…
              If you receive or give a bribe I would guess one would not like to see a paper trail. Cashiers checks create just that, a whopper of a papertrail. So, as long as they had stuck to the flowerpot of green they would have been fine and no anti-freezed Junior.

            • Bright? Remember, this is the state where theives may risk incarceration for stealing an eggbeater.

              http://floridiots.org/files/egg-beater-robbery.html

              And another Floridian, arrested for DUI.


              {snicker}
              In 2006, exasperated when the parties to Avista Management v. Wausau Underwriters could not agree on the site for a deposition, federal judge Gregory Presnell of the Middle District of Florida scheduled a unique resolution on the steps of a Tampa courthouse:

              Each lawyer shall be entitled to be accompanied by one paralegal who shall act as an attendant and witness. At that time and location, counsel shall engage in one game of ‘rock, paper, scissors.’ The winner of this engagement shall be entitled to select the location for the 30(b)(6) deposition to be held somewhere in Hillsborough County during the period July 11–12, 2006.

              http://floridiots.org/files/rock-paper-scissors-deposition.html

      • Too bad I could see the advertising panels in Tenerife already (“visit an underwater volcano – volcano cruise – free drinks….see also the whales and dolphins”)- all in 7 languages. You could make a living out of it.

        • Best part… As long as we do not entirely poison off the ocean it will do that totally on its without any supervision.

  14. Will be fun to see what they make out of this one.
    Tuesday 10.12.2013 05:21:58 68.986 -15.531 5.3 km 4.1 56.08 242.4 km NNE of Kolbeinsey

    Also, all of a sudden a few other quakes appeared on the list as unchecked, might be that the auto update is started again.

  15. Somehow related to Lurkings lamentations on society going down the drain… I think this image will perk up his day.

    In my neck of the woods the residents at the Sunflower Senior Citizens Residance had enough one day…
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

      • They torched the place… and the car, one of them is still holding on to the torch on the picture. Later they attacked the riot-police.
        Thing is that those are the generation that more or less built the country, and via taxes they have prepaid for a lot of things, as for instance Retirement Homes. So, when the current right-wing government started to negate on what they had allready paid for… Whammy! Pissed of rioting senior citizens went rampage.

    • Der Hundertjährige der aus dem Fenster stieg… has that appeared in English yet? One of the few books that made laugh out loud.

      • Two English versions already:

        1) The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, paperback, Hyperion Books, United States, 2012. ISBN 978-14-01324-64-3
        2) The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (translated by Rod Bradbury), Hesperus Press, London, 2012. ISBN 978-1-84391-372-6

  16. The latest events at Hekla is really irritating.
    First you have a mountain strain event that probably is a sign of the upcoming earthquake, then approximately an hour later you get the earthquake. And it takes more 11 hours before someone goes through the event at IMO.
    Sorry, but that could have been it. A totally unmonitored eruption at Hekla that nobody would have spotted. And IMO can’t say that they would have cought it, because they obviously did not notice it untill lunch time today.

    Seriously, this is substandard. It takes about an hour from first signs to an eruption at Hekla. Good to know that they are happy with finding it out 10 hours after the eruption started… Way to go.

    Okay, Islander caught it, he emailed me in really good time. But still… what the.. is going on here? Is the Icelandic Volcano Monitoring in our hands nowadays? If so, hand over access to all the equipment.

    • One thing that we all should get used to is that magma movement does not necessarily mean “eruption soon”. In many – actually, most – cases, magma ascent stops before the magma reaches the surface, sometimes at greater depth, sometimes when even some of the magma has already been expelled in phreatomagmatic explosions. This is because, to make an eruption, a perfect cocktail of physical conditions is required, and very often there is something lacking in the recipe and the eruption does not happen, even though the volcano really really looked like it was going to erupt. There are all sorts of reasons why eruptions fail, often it’s some obstacle on the way that makes the magma stagnate at a depth where it already loses those gases that most help it to erupt – carbon dioxide and water vapor. This means, the gas gets out, and the magma is left without it, and thus without what makes it move most easily. For this reason you see all sorts of unrest at lots of volcanoes, but in something like one or less per cent of the cases this eventually leads to eruption. Yet, in some cases, it eventually does – Montserrat seems like it’s been preparing for the 1995-2010 eruption for about a century, with repeated episodes of magma movement (about once every 30 years), all of which failed until the latest, starting in 1992, which led to the eruption.

      • About Montserrat, there were some investigations by the British geological society in 1936.
        Some of pictures show rather extensive earthquake damage, but it is not said if the damages were local or coming from a larger tectonic quake. They mention also some “roaring” fumaroles showing that the geothermal activity was already quite evident in 36 (but there are nearly as many “soufrières” as there are islands in the area….)

        http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/hazards/volcanoes/montserrat/archives/gallery.html

        http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/hazards/volcanoes/montserrat/archives/home.html

        I read somewhere too that the local GP made some recording of the earthquake swarms in the early 40’s. but it is only from memory.

        There was no seismic monitoring at the time, but apparently Perret came to the island when coming bak from Martinique and St Vincent. More over I think that in the case of these andesitic volcanoes, the time frame must be pretty long with a very viscous magma.

        • I just had a look at the FB MVO page and there is an interesting survey from UWI in the crater of St Vincent. Very nice pictures of the ’79 dome with some fumarolic activity.

        • Montserrat had three episodes of heightened seismic activity and gas emission before it went serious in the 1990s. They occurred in the late 1890s, in 1936-1937, and in 1966-1967; the latest was also accompanied by ground deformation (measured there for the first time). Then, the final seismic swarm started in 1992, and culminated in the reactivation of the volcano in 1995; the eruption continued until 2010 and it is not certain whether it’s now definitely over or there will be more to come (but as time passes, confidence is rising that it’s over).

          • Thank you Boris !
            I have a weak spot for Montserrat, as I have some family in nearby Guadeloupe and was there during the 2010 dome collapse.

      • This has nothing to do with Hekla Volcano “nearly erupting or not”, nor “some magma movements” not yielding an eruption or not. Sorry, this is no Etna, and I am not born yesterday. Carl is referring to the public warning watch process (or lack of), or apparent chaos. IMO has had one of the most efficient “earthquake display and processing systems available”, but now all of a sudden it seems broken. This is grave, as we have detected unusual activity on many stations, in the central areas, activity that could mean there are larger events potentially in the making.
        Deep quakes in many central volcanoes, unusual movements on GPS´es and now recently signs of systems pressurizing, and this continiues today.
        Therefore begs the question, what broke or what failed. IMO is public funded and has been quite proud of its excellent reputation. So far. I do not understand why this updating of quakes is not fixed. All other components of the system seem working and there seems new funds are available to set up new monitoring stations.

        • I would also like to point out that Hekla is usually aseismic right up until eruption starts. Normally Hekla goes seismic about 1 hour before eruption. Inflation also occurs without the usual tremors and earthquakes that other more “normal” volcanoes like to do for a long time before. Instead it seems to happily inflate a bit after an eruption. Then sit quiet for a few years, heavy a little bend at the knees, a couple of small quakes around 0.5 too 1.5M and then barf 1 hour later. The flexing of the knees being the strainmeter dropping.

          So, on a volcano whos only warning signs are seen 1 hour before it starts to chuck 1kg stones 52 kilometers in all directions, is it really a good idea to check the locationing of earthquakes 10 hours after a possible eruption would have started? On Hekla spotting that one earthquake is the difference between saving lives or not. After all, Dellukot is just a few km away. An hour of warning is not a lot, but it is enough to grab the familly and get out.
          Last time around IMO spotted the coming eruption 62 minutes before it started, and missed with 1 minute. This time nobody even noticed the strain changes and the earthquake.
          Meh, I guess we are miffed because we are used to IMO being really good and always on top of things and that they just picked a really bad day to have a bad day at the job.

        • Dear islander, I have no doubt that you have your things well together (do you actually work in the sector?) – and you’re right this is not about Etna, it’s about all volcanoes, and also about the fact that much of the movement that we see now and in real-time (and of which we learn thanks to the Internet and all those fine apps we can install on our cell phones) was surely there also in the past, only that it was not measured (or much less so) and we knew nothing about it.
          It’s something that I’ve had in my mind for a long time, and this was the moment it came out, maybe a little bit out of context, but there are so many folks out there who look at the monitoring data made available on the Internet and make all their own stories out of them – and that’s a really, really huge problem. We’re doing an enormous effort in trying to educate the public that very much of what these data tell us is just the normal heartbeat of live volcanic areas, and what is unusual or not is not very easy to say because the high-quality data are available only since a very short time and little comparison can be made.
          I fear that in all volcanic areas there are occasionally technical problems with the monitoring networks and/or with making the data available on the web. I doubt, though, that Icelandic scientists and authorities will let this pass without acting. The public information system is very sophisticated and warning is given on a number of levels, so the lack of earthquake information on the web is, IMHO, not as crucial as it might seem. After all, Iceland has one of the highest levels of consciousness about the importance of volcano monitoring and prevention in all of the world 😉

          • I should be more specific about my phrase “people making their own stories out of the data”. This is not about you and the very civilized and educated discussions on this blog, it’s about people who are obsessed that all that we learn of now – the faintest burp of a volcano, the tiniest earthquake – is a sign that extraordinary activity is going on (as remarked in the main article above). What is extraordinary is the enormous amount of information available to the general public in real-time, though many of these folks don’t know what the data mean. Interpretation of such data is often very complicated and that’s what we have specialists for – and many people like to blare out their wrong understanding of the data via blogs and a variety of web sites dedicated, in one way or another, to all sorts of natural phenomena. The problem seems to be particularly grave in Italy and in the U.S., but it is generally rather widespread, maybe Iceland is being a bit less haunted by it. I hope you now better understand my reasoning.

            • I understand, and yes, its total mistake that this applies to me here.
              🙂
              Because I have rather been trying tame (tone down and rectify) Carl´s interpretatons on Icelandic Volcanoes. Thats the so-called “Cod slapping”.
              No, I do not work in sector, but I probably could, my “qualifications” are somewhere around
              – but not very specific. I do not pretend I am smarter than I am, as I know I am not that.
              I do not try make theories or do research, I am more into studying – and learn – and all eruptions here since in year 2000, I knew they were about to happen more than 30 min before-hand by having chance watch IMO SIL´s ( Fimm did erupt in such noisy conditions nobody knew about it untill it was actually visual). Five days previously I drove into area, as I was certain it whould happen. That said, Yes, I do watch SIL´s on everyday bases, but likely many do.

            • I just spent half of my life inventing weird monitoring equipment for among others Volcanologists, picked up quite a lot while doing that. And complemented that with geology (more for interest way back when). So, I guess I could actually call my self a geophysicist, albeit a crappy one since I started as a physicist (And my collegue Michio left a lot to be asked when he in one famous go made physicists look like Nibiruists when he commented on Yellowstone..) Guess why I loved poking a hole in Yellowstone..?

              And then I got into mining, bit of a learning curve there, but it gave me access to some data that really relates to volcanoes, like the thousands of samples of Lakí lavas. A bit of a dud for mining purposes, but lovely to write about and being first for once.

          • I work in a technical field. I pretty much always have. Occasionally, a less well known part of the system can fail, and generate a cascade failure throughout the entire system… or, if not an outright failure, feed erroneous data into the system. This can be especially critical for systems that involve data processing and archived data to generate an output. Remember that many of the seismic solutions that we see are based on a structural model of the crust. If that model becomes tainted by bad data, it can make any subsequent output from the system highly suspect.

            It could very well be that the IMO system ingested bad data and that the scientists there are madly trying to localize it and eliminate it’s effects. If that is the case, they are in full on crisis management mode. Even if the hardware issue gets corrected, they may be reticent at releasing any output info until they are sure that they have a clean output data coming out of the system.

            One of the most vexing problems that you can work on is a syncro-servo system. That’s because the output of any one stage depends on what is fed into it. When you chase a bad signal up the line, you could very well end up at a stage just one of two stages down the loop. I’m not saying that they use servos, just that their system, as a whole, could very well have interdependencies like that. Suppose that their seismic model of the crust gets updated in real time, and then that model is used to localize quakes. Trash the model with bad data, and the whole thing becomes unreliable.

            We are quite fortunate that we have Boris to inject a bit of professional sanity to our musings.

            • Sounds very feasible to me. I can’t talk for the IMO but in the (very occasional) dealings I’ve had with GNS NZ they have been extremely forthcoming and open. But the one thing I did learn was that the stuff they released on the web was way inferior to the data they actually used. Most of the time they didn’t even know what was posted on the web because it was simply irrelevant for them. That’s just packaged stuff for us internet tourists.

      • Unlike EL-HIERRO where this probably is jud 5%, IMO transparency has been at 99,999% and the politicians were always held at bay. The more I think of this, its more mysterious.

        • I had an unparanoid idea that you can check out. Might be that they are doing a systems shift to a new public page. Would fit the weird pages you have turned up lately. I have not even an inkling to believe they are hiding anything, bad day at work yes, hide no.
          Sofar the only thing they have hidden was the GPS-datapoints Lurking wanted, but then they did give a very good reason for it. Which is okay.

          • Value: ooooo. Will sleep on it now for a few hours. If Hekla erupts in meantime, that says they are late with that page.

        • Not sure I agree with the lack of transparency for El Hierro. IGN and AVCAN do make a lot of data available – a big thank you to them! Suspect that many of the issues we saw over Bob were PR related.

        • Is it not possible to ask IMO a question about this? Why are we trying to guess the reason ourselves? – Good chance they give us the correct answer.

          • Its also possible that that reason was lost in the relay of the reason, or that the person asked was working on a really vexing pastry and it slipped their mind. (I’ve been distracted by doughnuts myself)

      • How would they know that the eruption took only a week when it occurred 30 million years ago? Also how much of the distribution of the deposits is due to wind over the years rather than the original eruption.

        • I wondered that too. That’s pretty damn accurate. One week 30 million years ago. If emplacement was from one one-week episode that must have been one hell of a burp. Did they get the same signature from the bottom of the 13000′ pile as they did at the top of it? And in several locations? wow. That’s kind of hard to believe, but maybe they did.

    • This apparently is competing with the Fish Canyon Tuff from the La-Garita caldera for the largest known single-event eruptions.

      No surprise, it also is part of the same ignimbrite flareup that occurred when the farralon plate delaminated from the north american plate.

      • Given the paucity of data… likely.

        Islander (↓) may have run across the sources of the name. Much like my email address being the name of a guy I bought a dog off of. Great dog… right up until he died. I miss that dog. Quick, somewhat obedient, and protective as hell.

    • Never heard of him, but the name takes on a rather stupendous quality in Swedish, the words are the same in Swedish as in Icelandic, but Swedish I suspect have implications that are rather stumpefying. The most politically sanitized version in English retaining a small part of flair would be “School of Teaparty Assholes”.

      • now Húsvíkingar are pissed off, and will send their force of Vikings up Langsjöen, and invade Sweden, only to get rid of that Yellow colour from their flag. None of the other Nordic states uses this so Swedes should not either! *parody, not to taken as act of war*

  17. There are some significant GPS changes at Hekla, and interesting ones.
    http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/HEKLA.html

    All stations seem to show deflation (down movement) of about 2cm in the last days (about a week). At same time, there seems to be a almost irrelevant north movement in most stations, except Hestalda.

    This, added to the transient and small quake last night, shows that there are some magma movements taken place under Hekla or in its vicinity. Wonder if this is magma inflating Hekla itself and causing downwards movements in its north side, or magma being pulled towards south of Hekla (which is not the first time it seems to do this). Alternatively, the plate boundaries are doing minor movements at the region and this tension might cause Hekla to erupt in soon.

    Hoopefully, Hekla will NOT erupt, since I will be travelling abroad for weeks, and thus she should wait for my return to Iceland. We are entering what I call the Hekla season: most of her eruptions since settlements have occurred in the first few months of the the year (January to April). Seems that Hekla prefers the winter.
    Rescued by Spica

  18. I posted a comment regarding Hekla and it seems it’s gone. Anyways, I was pointing to a sudden 2cm down movement in most GPS stations around Hekla. This is interesting. Could be magma inflating the mountain and causing changes around, or magma moving south (not the first time), or plate boundaries straining with tension, which can also provoke Hekla to erupt.

    I sincerely hope does not erupt now, since I will be going abroad for a while, but she seems to have a tendency to erupt in the first few months of the years, at least those have been most her eruptions since settlement.

    http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/HEKLA.html
    Rescued by Spica

    • Am I seeing a tiny transient around 15:00 today in Hekla, and also about the time when Burfell inverted the strain curve. There was another (the one already noticed) earlier, last night.

      It seems I lost a couple of comments I posted a while ago. I was noticing the sudden 2cm down in GPS movement in most stations around Hekla.

        • Have you noticed, Carl, the GPS around Hekla?

          Most stations show DOWN of about 2cm in recent days. Seems interesting.
          Most stations also seem to show a slight N component, but not so sure about it.

          Cannot post the link, its the reason why my comment do not appear after.
          Or perhaps I can post the link like this http://stro kkur.raunvis.hi.is/~s igrun/HEKLA.html
          Rescued by Spica

        • Have you noticed, Carl, the GPS around Hekla?

          Most stations show DOWN of about 2cm in recent days. Seems interesting.
          Most stations also seem to show a slight N component, but not so sure about it.

          Cannot post the link, its the reason why my comment do not appear after.

  19. It seems I can post comments again. Was not working for 30min.

    Most stations around Hekla show now, since a week ago, sudden down movement, about 2 cm.
    Dont know what this means, but it could be magma movements. Could stations, mostly placed on north of Hekla, deflate when the southern side of the mountain itself inflates? Or magma is moving southwards. Or tectonic plates are moving and straining, and this might result in an eruption in soon.

    Either way, we are entering what seems to be the Hekla season (January to April). Or at least most eruptions since settlement have occurred in the first few months of the year.

  20. umm over reaction warning warning http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25331875

    this article begins

    Yellowstone supervolcano eruption ‘would affect the world’

    5 hours ago

    Scientists are reporting that the supervolcano lying beneath Yellowstone National Park in the US is far bigger than was previously thought, stretching for more than 90km (55 miles).

    I repeat not going to happen in our lifetimes or our grandkids lifetimes -relax

    • If she gets any bigger she will be a volcanic field. I doubt that she will erupt everything at once but if she does, future generations will be able to pan for diamonds …. 😕

    • Nothing out of the ordinary, same thing has happened before. Hekla likes to “breath” a bit now and then.
      If it was jumping up a lot I would be more worried.

    • Last time it acted weird like that, a dollop of magma seems to have moved south/southeast of the edifice and nothing happened. An open field picked up the uplift and there is sat.

      • But then we had clear uplift in about half of the stations. This time it seems to be related to something else, perhaps a seasonal shift. Or something creating a general delay of the GPS signal.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s