Aftermath of Gunung Kelud + Riddles

Photograph by Alex MSG.

Photograph by Alex MSG.

We can now start to summarize the plinian eruption of Kelud that lasted 3 hours; even though the volcano is still smoking the eruption is now for all points and purposes over.

We know that the eruption column was slightly higher than 20 kilometers and 254 kilometers away it deposited a 1 centimeter thick ash layer in Yogyakarta, even though the city was only hit by the outskirts of the ash cloud.

From the Thorarinson model of ash dispersal and the columnal height we can say that the eruption was a VEI-4, something that is also confirmed by local scientists who claim that the eruption was more powerful than the 1990 VEI-4. As such it is the third VEI-4 eruption of the decade. It was though most likely smaller than the 2011 Grimsvötn eruption.

Traing coming rushing out of the ash from Gunung Kelud. Image by unknown.

Traing coming rushing out of the ash from Gunung Kelud. Image by unknown.

Due to good work performed by the Indonesian volcanologists the eruption was tracked well in advance, the evacuation planning worked better than expected, and the locals acted well on the warnings. As the eruption occurred almost all of the 100 000 people within the 5km initial evacuation zone had left, and as the 10 km evacuation zone was declared just before onset of the eruption many sought shelter or fled.

Also the removal of the Crater Lake through the construction of a tunnel removed the threat of deadly Lahars. During the deadliest known eruption the same volcano killed 6 000 people, but through meticulous planning, good scientific work and ground-breaking volcano-engineering that number has been diminished to 2 confirmed deaths as I write this. Most likely that number will increase over the next couple of days, but something tells me that the number will be lower than the 1990 number of 32 deaths.

Riddles

Sissel is still in the lead, but Cryphia made great strides and took the second position closely followed by Dorkviking in this Olympian competition of arcane volcano knowledge. This week there are 3 volcanoes, 1 volcanologist and one volcanic term. Good luck!Mount Hekla

  1. Haggard + Image – Marioin Island (Sissel, 2pt) The rusty shovel on the image is a “Marion” steam shovel, and H. Rider Haggard is the writer of  the 1929 novel “Mary of Marion Isle”.
  2. Crusty sapfian lover – Dyke (Kelda, 2pt)
  3. Well travelled cubic building – Mount Kaba (Spica, 2pt) After the famous building.
  4. Tasty nutty tree poet – Professor Hazel Rymer (Sissel, 2pt)
  5. Home of the gigantically shrunken climbing equipment – The Pitons, Gros Piton and Petit Piton, Saint Lucia (Evan Chugg, 2pt)
Score board
10 Sissel
8 Cryphia
7 Dorkviking
6 Evan Chugg
4 Pyter
4 Edward
3 Matt
2 Dinojura44
2 Inannamoon
2 Kelda
2 Lughduniense
2 UKViggen
1 Bobbi
1 KarenZ
1 Sa’Ke

CARL

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362 thoughts on “Aftermath of Gunung Kelud + Riddles

  1. 3 The cubic part could be a salt crystal and the building a flat. Salt flats? And well travelled: maybe Afar? This gives two possibilities: Erta Ale, an active shield volcano in the Afar region – or Dallol, a volcanic explosion crater in the Danakil Depression, both Ethiopia.

    • Gosh, that was a blast! I still wonder why Kelud has such violent eruptions, the fact that there is a lava dome cannot be the only reason. Sinabung had one as well after all. And Kelud is known for those blasts, with or without lava dome.

      • I think that the amount of dissolved gasses in the magma plays an important role. Maybe that the magma of Sinabung has been degassed. But a fresh batch of volatile-rich magma can rise into Sinabung’s magma reservoir.

        • Ok, that means that Sinabung would be capable of doing a Kelud-style in the future as well. But then, could not any Indonesian volcano do that with new volatile-rich magma? Yet, some are just not doing it, like Semeru or Bromo for instance (not speaking of strombolian or hawaiian style volcanoes that have a different geological setting).

          • I think Sinabung is a different story – the magma is different, it’s a tad little bit more fluid, and less gas-rich. Each volcano has its specific “personality”, and Sinabung does not seen to be a volcano that does very violent explosive eruptions (the current eruption thus far has been rather non-explosive; virtually all the pyroclastic flows were generated by collapse from the lava dome and flow). If you look at satellite images of Sinabung you see lots of old lava flows on its flanks that are essentially the same stuff as the lava flow that is now slowly oozing down its flank, they all extend to about 3-4 km from the crater, so I guess also the current flow will eventually stop at that distance.

            Kelut has a more gas-rich magma, and so each time pressure builds up to make a new eruption, this turns out a highly explosive but brief event.

            In any case, you have to look at each volcano considering its own specific characteristics, which is hosted in the records and deposits of its previous eruptions. At Pinatubo, when that volcano came back to life in the spring of 1991, rapid studies were undertaken to get a picture of its history, and what was found was nothing but huge pyroclastic flow deposits from its past eruptions, which led scientists to believe that also the new eruption would follow the same scheme as its predecessors. They thus believed that it would be, like the past eruptions, a very large, violent eruption, and decided to have a very large number of people living nearby evacuated – which presumably saved the lives of tens of thousands.

            • As always, great post Boris!

              With that said, I think the best way to look at volcanoes is to adhere by the philosophy of “conditions are subject to change”.

              In other words, if all else is equal, historical signals should be true overall, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can be used to accurately predict future events. Many volcanoes do behave predictably, but at the same time, so many will abruptly change their activity, mostly due to changing composition in the magma signature or perhaps other factors. Take for example Nevado Del Ruiz, which prior to around 10,000 years ago, had been a much more explosive volcano with a few very large caldera forming / collapse eruptions in it’s history. In the last 10,000 years, it’s been much more effusive. So which history are we supposed to believe? Logically, we would go with the more recent history, but clearly we can see that at some point in the past, that history changed and led the volcano to change as well (regardless of what those conditions were).

              Many of the volcanoes that are currently “puffing away” have had extremely violent caldera forming eruptions in the past. For every pinatubo & kelud which are extremely predictable due to the high volatile content in the magma, there are other volcanoes that likely seem benign, but possibly represent a much larger risk than the general public realizes (whether due to lahars or other factors).

              With that said, you’re 10x more of an expert on this stuff than I am, and I’m sure you know everything I’m saying, but I just think it’s interesting to look at the history of how volcanoes go through different cycles. I’m very interested in the processes that lead from a volcano transitioning from relatively effusive / strombolian activity towards more violent eruptive activity such that could potentially lead towards caldera forming eruptions (see Krakatoa for example).

  2. Hey everyone,

    went again hiking today 🙂 after some winter blues and health problems a while ago (now completely fine), I did 4 hikes this week. It was awesome but I am gladly taking a break now 🙂 I should write a post on the volcanic insights and adventures I visited.

    One hike was on the Brennisteinsalda region. Saw a few recent vents (something like a couple thousand years), and some old ones (erupted under ice). The other day I was in Kalfstindar, which is northeast of Thingvellir.

    Eruptions there have been quite recent, just a few thousand years, but also many Pleistocene ridges. The area now seems quite earthquake-dead, except for the recent swarm SE of Langjokull just a few days ago, showing that an eruption on that region is still possible, although everyone seems to neglect this volcanic region.

    Today I was in Akrafjall, a old extinct volcano, north of Reykjavik. But rocks there still show evidence of late Pleistocene eruptions (lava rocks, still not very much eroded, with rugged surfaces and holes). That was quite surprising. Weather was awesome, crystal clear but pretty cold, could see a lot of the west and southwest of Iceland.

  3. #3 tardis a well travelled building ? but not cubic – that sort of led toward the borg but that’s more spaceship than building ? hmm perhaps the cube restaurant – a travelling pop up restaurant. hmm pop up makes me think of ‘maar’ – probably not 🙂

  4. Daaaaaaamn. That was impressive. In a Women’s cross country event, the Swedish athlete overtook and blew past the Finnish and German contenders, who “didn’t even see it coming.” (my phrase)

    That was an impressive pass on the final sprint to the line.


    Many years ago, while driving here from San Diego, I was in the middle of farking nowhere on the Interstate. Nothing but desert as far as the eye could see. I nudged the speed up a bit since there was no traffic. A few minutes into this segment of the trip… I had a Freightliner blow past me like I was standing still. I could feel the bow shock of the truck as my car lurched to one side from the disturbance in the air-flow. That guy… was moving!

    Though the speeds were down at a more human scale, that is what her performance reminded me of.

    • Yepp, she tends to do things like that now and again.

      But what really surprised me was that the Norwegians (with 11 consecutive relay wins) did not even get a medal.

        • *nudgie nudgie*

          For reference, Norway has a male skier named Petter Northug that has spent his career saying rather dubious things… so I guess it is carma time for Norway :mrgreen:
          What was the excuse now? The skiis was not good? :mrgreen:

          • Yes, that is the official line – just look up Verdens Gang. They blame their ski prep team but it’s not that easy, somehow the Nurwegian athletes have failed to prepare themselves properly and are out of form. But it’s easier to blame the poor smörrelse-menner than the real culprits.

        • For reference part II…
          Norway normally wins… everything on skiis… So, when we win we tend to give them mental wedgies :mrgreen:

            • Sadly that is true…
              Normally we have to comfort ourselves with Hockey instead…
              I still think that we should make one country out of Norway, Sweden and Finland. We would get 75 percent of the medals in the Winter Olympics after all 🙂
              (and it would drive Poutin nuts)

            • We do our best to drive people nuts 🙂

              Kalmar Union 2.0 would most likely be a splendid idea… But I think most of the world would dislike it…

            • I don’t know about Most of the world, just the EU, US, and Russia. Most other countries wouldn’t care or not have a chance at a winter Olympic medal either way.

              The biggest question is, who should be in Kalmar Union 2.0 and who’s to proud to join

            • Denmark would not be a problem today had the Dutch not murdered our king, Charles X and generally supported Denmark against our righteous wrath. Come to think of it, we should declare war on the Dutch and claim indemnities. 354 years of accumulated interest should prove to be a neat little packet… 😈

            • Warning, this may or may not piss someone off.

              Edit: Comment deleted because of breaking the most important blog rule: “Be nice.”

    • when I was based in Winslow Az, I stayed in this motel next to the BNSF tracks every thing was fine until about 0300 in the morning at that time a Hotshot Chicago-LA Intermodal blew through at
      90 per. No crossings and the right of way was well fenced, the motel was an old route 66 type place not well constructed and close to the tracks as legally possible, a six unit EMD/GE lashup
      puts out one heck of a bow wave. We moved to another motel..

  5. The Riddles are now officially deriddled.

    Seems like we won against Latvia and that Swiss won against the Czecks, so I wish the Swiss good luck. Since I noticed that the Yankees have not watched the game yet I will not gratulate them on belting the Putinians.
    Tomorrow the first big game of the Olympics are up. The most likely destruction of Canada by the Finns. One should though know that both teams are through, and that the only reason to win it. If I have calculated it correctly the winner of the Canada vs Finland match will meet Switzerland and the loser will meet Sweden.
    This will give the entire Finnish team the cramps. Finns do not do tactical losses. But Finns would have an easy route to us if they loose. The Canadians are not above tactical thingies so they will play to loose.

  6. Very unfortunate that a Russian woman broke her back during freestyle ski today. 6 and a half hours of surgery. I hope she will have a full recovery.

      • North GA – I had just walked outside w/dog and was in my driveway heading for the grass. I had a coat hood on my head as it was a little chilly. . .heard a very loud, weird sound which scared me (not the bravest person in the dark although driveway flood light was on and at the end of my leash was a 115 lb pup). Stopped, slid hood off my head so I could hear better and was checking to see if anything was coming for us, ha! About five to ten seconds later heard very similar sound. Felt nothing but by that time was being tugged by anxious to go pup. Reading news this morn and kept reading about sound some people say they heard—some say a boom and some say a rumble like thunder. I can only describe what I heard as more of a medium to high pitch creak. It crossed my mind how very strange and unidentifiable it sounded. I want to think not only have I felt several earthquakes during our time in CA but now I finally ‘heard’ one. Who knows?

    • That is surely an interesting way to convert higher temperature in the infrared Modis image to height. As he writes, the model is based on the assumption that the ash cloud is above the tropopause, where temperatures positively correlate with height. The model looks quite similar to the lidar image.
      He probably used google Earth Pro to import the elevation map, I don´t think it works with the free version.

    • Carl, thanks for the link post. I left my role at the Alaska Volcano Observatory middle of last year. I’m still in analyzing volcanic processes from satellite data.

    • And confirmation once again of the 28.2km ash column in the major phase.
      I hope that we will get pictures soon, and I am also very curious about how much of the tunnel survived.

      I hope that our Indonesian friends stay around so that we might get info on the tunnel when things have calmed down.

      • True, but the translated text describes the present situation. There are of course no photos from the crater yet, but perhaps the PVMBG has access to radar images.
        “A lava dome formed when Kelud an increase in volcanic activity in 2007, now can not be found anymore.

        Created lava dome in the crater lake that has been broken by the eruption of Mount Kelud 22:50 pm on Thursday (13/02/2014).

        “The lava dome is missing now, the eruption hole diameter of 400 meters,” said Head Volcano Observation and Investigation PVMBG Gede Swastika Saturday (02/15/2014).

        Lava dome that according to the data obtained has a volume of 16 million cubic meters and a height of 1,114 m above sea base. Now the mountain as high as 1,731 m above sea again has a crater.”

  7. Seems like the Norwegians are missing the mens relay too… Just so everyone knows, Norway takes skiing very seriously. And in a country spending about 100M€ per distance to get gold-medals in the olympics heads will start to fly…
    And just to rub it in it is the neighbours grabbing the gold again.

  8. Hope this won’t turn out to be a large comment, but I thought it might be interesting. This was Google translated from a link provided by Alex Bogár on FB, in Indonesian:
    “Kelud , whose name is difficult to remove the Ampera Tunnel . This tunnel was built could not be separated from the business ‘ tame ‘ Kelud eruptions are often explosive .
    The tunnel is constructed associated with the eruption of Mount Kelud in 1919 . This eruption is among the most deadly since claimed 5,160 lives and damage to 15,000 hectares of productive land .
    Lava flow even crept up to 38 km . In fact, before the Dutch colonial government has built various dams retaining lava , especially in the Rhino Times . Lava barrier weir was built starting in 1905.
    Deadly eruption was clearly not be separated from the water in the crater of Mount Kelud . At that time , most of the victims died from the eruption of hot lava trail . Large volume of water in the crater , making hot lava can flow up to a distance of tens of miles .
    Initially , there were seven tunnels were built . These tunnels are built to a certain height level with the intention of reducing the height of the water in the crater of Mount Kelud .
    Fortunately , since the tunnels were made , Kelud did not erupt in the long term . New on 1951Gunung Kelud erupted followed by a great eruption in 1966 .
    After Kelud erupted into tears , earlier in 1966 , the government built a new tunnel that is located 45 feet below the old tunnel .
    The tunnel was completed in 1967 that was later named Ampera Tunnel . This channel serves to maintain the volume of the crater lake to keep 2.5 million cubic meters .
    Kelud eruption in 1990 which lasted for 45 days , which is February 10, 1990 until March 13, 1990 had closed the tunnel Ampera with volcanic material . Normalisas recently completed in 1994 . ( Compiled from various sources )”
    http://kedirikab.go.id/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1399%3Aterowongan-ampera-kelud&catid=164%3Aliputan-kelud&Itemid=936&lang=en

  9. This is OT, but good news on Vesuvius.
    “The emergency plan regarding an eruption of Vesuvius was signed last February 14” : http://www.centrometeoitaliano.it/vesuvio-firmato-l-aggiornamento-del-piano-emergenza-15-2-2014-9351/?refresh_cens
    There has been some preoccupation about the occurrence of shallow, low magnitude, earthquakes in Vesuvio, which has already been clarified by INGV, but it is reassuring to know that civil authorities finally have a plan for evacuation and hosting in the eventuality of an eruption. Never too late to get that done.
    BTW. Boris has already confirmed that these tiny-winy quakes are probably nothing and that there is no reason for concern.

  10. Still here and following, http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2014-02-16&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2014&Mes=02&Dia=16&tipo=1
    I am putting this down to severe weather conditions rather than volcanic rumblings.
    @ maggiemom. What an experience! A bit scary until reports of a quake come in I guess. That’s the trouble with infrequent quakes. No warning and a distinct feeling of total vulnerability. At least with Volcanoes there is some warning except of course those like Hekla that are hell bent on keeping travellers, walkers, bloggers, watchers and the IMO on their toes!
    I am interested to see how Scotland would fare if she goes independent. There has been such a long historical antagonism between England and Scotland. It’s interesting to see these historical differences played out in sports and in other countries. Safer and less damaging but interesting that the old, uneasy relationships are still creaking along. It is a jolly good job that countries cannot sue countries that may have occupied them. Britain would be more financially strapped than it is already!!
    Some may say a higher power is wreaking vengeance on England this year. Not so. Just the ineptitude of government departments who in the end, idiotically, now have to pay for expensive foreign expertise, when in fact the pleas and advice given by old water engineers, whose knowledge kept Somerset levels dry for 200 years has been ignored for the last 10 years. All for saving money in the short term or for using the money on non essential projects.
    Thank the Lord we have no volcanoes here!!!!!!

    • Scottish independence is quite a divisive issue up here on Skye. For years it was something that people dreamed about but now that it is just possible they are having to give it a lot more thought. I’m English, living up here for the last 10 years and never intend to go south of the border again. I find the idea of being free of Westminster rather attractive and am inclined to vote for independence but my partner, also english, is dead against. We have the occasional lively discussion. As far as the weather goes England’s loss has been the north of Scotland’s gain. Although it has been wet we have been spared most of our winter storms and now I hear that it is possible the jet stream may be settling into this path a lot more often in the future.

      • As a foreigner (french) I find this independence track somewhat strange and questionable. Now that the oil is nearly gone, there would be a split ?
        Come on, don’t buy it. From either side.
        Miss my pint o’ eighty 😀

      • Hello Brian. Skye is beautiful however we were rather disappointed after trying to spot the Otters 😀 . They were probably there and hiding from us tourists and laughing their little webbed paws off 😀 I can see your point of view about Westminster !
        Climate change is nothing new. It happens and will continue to happen . It changed at the ice ages and between. It happened at the start of the iron age. I don’t think then mankind had much to do with it. Now at least we can stop pollution and the removal of equatorial forests which will help keep things as nature intends but I do think most changes are inevitable for some reason. We just had to find out why these changes are happening.

        • Sorry about the otters Diana. Would it upset you to know they visited the pond in our garden one evening and just 15 ft away swam up and down then got out and preened in full view. No pictures I’m afraid, I didn’t think they would be there when I got back with a camera. I just enjoyed the moment.

          • ROFL! Not at all upset.. We just had a laugh when we read the visitors book at the otter observation hide. Most were in this vein….”Otters? What Otters?” We obviously were not the only ones to spend an hour or so hopefully waiting. How lovely to know that they are definitely there and no harm has come to the otter population. Not only otters but you have your very own volcanoes on Skye. The majestic Cuillins.. Not only may you wish to be politically independent from England but a few million years ago Scotland made the break from the USA.!!!!!! 😀

            • Here is my totally foreign view on the Scottish – English thingamabob.
              Scotland has great whiskey. England has great beer. Vikings are thirsty. Time to go back and 1066 all of you again :mrgreen:

            • Thank you, Diana, I liked that video. I had visited Skye over 20 years ago and knew that the Black Cuillins were a volcano, but knew nothing about the circumstances. And they earn their name for sure, they are a really dark and forbidding mountain! But more dark and more forbidding were the clouds of midgets that assassinated us there!

          • True they are quite a fan club, Personally i find that the more there are the less you end up caring about them. Best way to beat them is to show up before mid may, or walk the ridges,

            The Norway condition tries hard to be a fair match, while the Kébékois have sadly been banned from the European airwaves.

            Serge

    • Good to see you, Diana! Oh you just missed GeoLoco, I think he was around about two days ago. Hope you are well in spite of the weather conditions, luckily spring is around the corner!

      • Helloooooooo Sissel 😀 . We are on a hillock with nice draining sandy soils so we are OK. Some of my relatives down south are having a bad time though. Yes! We have snowdrops and early crocus flowering which always cheers me up at the end of winter. 🙂

        • That is great to hear! Snowdrops here to (crocus yet to come), bringing the message of spring. Stay warm, and the best for you and your relatives! 🙂

        • HI Diana,
          the heat is gone for this summer, I think, got a couple of warm days 28-30 coming up, I live to fight another day, the heat is worse then the cold, it does take it out of you. My fury friends are fine, even they are slowly recovering, lost a few with all that hot weather, but that is life, have another batch at the moment and another one in about a month or so, they keep me going, water is an issue which might force me to move, that is another story

    • The 2.9 at 10km looks very small in contrast to the rest of the volcanic ‘weather’ ongoing for the region………….

      • Oh, and survived Atlanta snowmageddon 2014-twice! Unfortunately, was out for a most necessary medical appt when first one began. Consider hubby and me lucky to have made it home-seven hours for a 10 mile drive. Contribute making it through that fiasco to 4 wheel drive -yes I own a truck so am true GRITS (Girl Raised In The South)- and luckily an almost full tank of gas. National news was all out blasting ATL for the gridlock of thousands upon thousands trying to get home in a two inch snow! Many abandoned their cars from either running out of gas, spinning out, or cars just plain got stuck on hills after hundreds of vehicles packed down to a sheet of ice. Atl & suburbs are not flatland. Second one two weeks later to the tune of a beautiful four inch snow was happily snuggled in at home and must say enjoyed taking pup out. And ATL highways were deserted! By choice my truck was parked for three days!

      • Isn’t that a bit deep for pumping? 4-11Km seems too much for that to me. I thought drilling down to 13 km or so was a world record, might be outdated..

        • It looks like back pumping of process water. But Hengill is hard to know what is what in.
          It is suffering back pump swarms. It suffers tectonic swarms, and it has volcanic quake swarms. Most common is the pump swarms.
          You need to look at the details of the waveforms to see which is which.

  11. I have been playing with a quite radical idea on my mind, lately.

    Using chaos theory and strange attractors as a way to predict volcanic eruptions. When we look at the history of Hekla, Grimsvotn, Katla, eruptions, one can sometimes see cyclical patterns, while at other times behavior seems random. One also knows that this also applies for the overall volcanism in Iceland (hotspot cycle) and even for regional volcanism (for example cycles in Reykjanes region volcanism).

    Can someone give clues?

    I would pretty much like to use such models and see whether they seem to predict eruptions. And maybe predict the next ones. Or perhaps it is just a crazy idea, without application.

    • I was playing with linear trends of the historical and pre-historical eruptions, and I can see a linear trend of increasingly strong eruptions. Eruptions were more spaced and generally weaker in pre-historical times, still increasing over time until a VEI5 event. In the past 1000-1500 years, the same trend is observed and I am not sure of where it will lead. If I plot a linear trend to see when it hits VEI5 intensity, it does so around 2080-2100 (in an eruption similar to that of 1104 or even Hekla 3). Until 2100, in the decades ahead, the linear trend shows that a VEI4 event is not only probable but expected (recent eruptions were all VEI3 because they had such short repose times). Right now, what we should expect are strong VEI4 eruptions, if Hekla has enough repose time (and if repose times are even a requirement). As said, after 2100, conditions are favorable for a VEI5 event. It I plot the trend further into the future, then it could hit VEI6 intensity around 2300 (in what would be a caldera event).

      • Overdue eh?

        I think the regularity that you are seeing, have a lot to do with overall motion of the plate boundary. “wiggles” in that boundary are bound to generate a cascade effect up or down the line. Not only would this show as local stresses change, but magma genesis may also be affected by it… punctuated by hotspot indigestion and occasional puking of a wad up towards the surface.

      • I would not do to much trendlining on Hekla. Why now? Well, she does not really have the classical sort of growing magma chamber so she was a VEI-4 to VEI-5 volcano to beginn with.
        Grimsvötn on the other hand has an expanding magma reservoir to collapse thing going on. It has sofar suffered 3 VEI-6 caldera formations and seem to rapidly move towards another one as the eruptions tend to be on a growing cycle as more magma is available.

        Problem is that reallity has very little to do with statistics, but it can be fun to play with it.

    • As long as one totally SEPARATES statistical fun from reallity you could get better result with chaotic modelling. But you will never be able to predict anything because the volcano is just to chaotic, even a well behaved volcano like Grimsvötn is to chaotic to be predicted. It can only be prognosed.

      I did an attempt using the same road you suggest with Hekla, and failed spectacularly. I also once used the run-up signals that Hekla has given for the last 4 eruptions. And failed.

      My point is that statistical modelling will never be able to predict an eruption.

    • Math can be nice, your mileage may vary… i’ve ended up resorting 2 Geometry for actionable intelligence for ages.

      The short and gracious version of the reply this, cos the long version may involve consumption of appreciable amount of aspirin both for the reader and myself.

      I’ll just add to avoid confusion, that can mean using the math “language”.

      Serge

  12. There is a warning by the PVMBG to evacuate river valleys outside the 10 km hazard zone.
    The BMKG predicts heavy rainfall on Tuesday so it is quite possible that the new ash may come down Kelud as lahars.
    http://kedirikab.go.id/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1393%3Apvmbg-hujan-berpotensi-timbulkan-lahar-dingin&catid=164%3Aliputan-kelud&Itemid=936&lang=en
    http://www.kedirijaya.com/2014/02/16/18-februari-bmkg-prediksi-hujan-lebat-turun-di-puncak-g-kelud.html

  13. Interesting. Finland was right up Sweden’s arse, matching him stride for stride until leg three, then it looked like Finland lost a cylinder and fell back where the trailing pack ate him alive. No matter how hard they tried, all Russia could do was hold off France. No one could seem to be able to close the gap on Sweden.

    Meanwhile, NBC still won’t show a hockey match. Oh, they will stick them in the commercials, but as for broadcasting an actual match, nope. None that I have seen or heard of. It’s almost as if NBC truly does have their head up their arse.

    • Finland had their weakest skier on the last leg and we had our strongest. I am happy for France, it was their first ever medal in the relay. And I still wonder what on earth has happened to Norway…

      They are not even showing your own games? That is… just… hm. Weird. Especially since you have a really good team this time around. I think you will get Finland in the quarter, baring me calculating things well enough on who meets who.

  14. I am once again returning to Oklahoma city and the ongoing eartquake swarm.
    If you go and check the regional seismic activity you will notice that all of the activity is from the current swarm.
    Highly interesting really.
    http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=360261#

    (For the tinfoilers, the Oklahoma quake storm is caused by DAARPA moving HAARPs focus so that Yellowstone Supervolcano moved to under Oklahoma City, the rest of us are just mildly interested in what most likely is a small emergant faultline)

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

  15. Badan Geologi have installed a new webcam somewhere near Kelud showing ash covered slopes. Not the crater, it’s probably too early for that.
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    chryphia edit

  16. Pingback: The eruption of Kelut, Java, February 2014 | volcanicdegassing

  17. The Colombian SGC/Pasto have to inform the public in their weekly bulletins on Cumbal volcano that they cannot perform observation or station maintainance due to not getting access through the indigenous communities in the upper (northern?) regions of the volcano. This has been going on for almost a year and negotiations did not have any results so far. –
    I mean, it’s them that benefit most from the observatory’s work, so why would they deny access? It’s not as if volcanologists would trample on crops and destroy houses! Unbelievable!
    (Google transl., Src: http://tinyurl.com/oonprpo)

    • Have you missed that there is a civil war in Colombia and that the Death Squadrons used to mask themselves as among other things volcanologists? It’s a mess really. You have Government Forces, Paramilitary militias (government guerilla), Death Squadrons (government), Drug Lords, FARC-Guerilla (Communist), Indigenous Guerillas, and all of them are very protective of their Cocaine Fields.

      • I had not missed that for the last ten years, but I did not think at the moment that the war would rage on the tops of volcanoes as well… ;(
        I just looked up how far they have gotten with their peace talks but it seems that all sides are as obstinate as can be, worse than in Northern Ireland. People are still dying, in both countries…

      • It’s a source of income too – if you hold a territory, outsiders have to pay for access. It’s the same thing in certain “neighbourhoods” of cities such as Los Angeles.

  18. Her æt http://larashots.com/appleyard/nasc/nasc2014.htm ic rǽda þone folgendan dæl:

    “Anno MMXIV Solmonað
    – i d: Hēr on Sumatra īeges norðan in Indonesiam se fýrbeorg Sinabung utbærst, ond hit onwac on xv dæge Hærfestmonaðes geares .mmxiii.
    – xiii d: Hēr on Java íege in Indonesiam se fýrbeorg Kelud onwac ond acwellede xiv oððe máran.”

    Twá fýbeorgas utbærstaþ mid manigum hearme.

    • And that would be the world news in ancient Anglo-Saxon. Some people just have slightly to much free time on their hands. 🙂

      • well I’ve got my anglo saxon reader upstairs somewhere, if I do get some spare time (ware porcine aviators) I might try actually reading that rather than just a google translate 🙂

  19. There has been new research done on how magma which is generally stored in the magma reservoir in a solid or near-solid state is rapidly changed to liquid eruptable magma, much faster than thought before. Article:
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/02/17/volcanos_can_erupt_quickly/
    Paywalled paper:
    “Rapid remobilization of magmatic crystals kept in cold storage” by Kari M. Cooper / Adam J.R. Kent
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12991.html#t

      • Not really, Lurkings Black Swan volcano would be seriously out there and be totally unlikely, and driven by a previously unknown process or source.
        Take for instance the recent Oklahoma Quakes. Let us now for fun and sake of argument state that they are caused by rapid inflation as a hitherto unknown mantleplume finds the Nemaha Ridge after having moved silently under the craton. This mantleplume has before starting to inflate the Nemaha artefact pooled a lot of magma so the Nemaha opens up in a massive fissure eruption under Oklahoma City after just a few days of quakeing. That would be a proper Black Swan Volcano.

        (Tinfoilers… Listen now, ain’t gonna happen now hear ya’)

            • Grey Swans are problematic. Locally, they can be very black, but on a wider scale, they are quite light in color and not black at all. Kelud is definitely grey… unless it was packing an inordinate amount of SO2… which, depending on other effects, could make it a bit darker than light grey.

              This is a take off on the multiple unfortunate coincidences idea.

              Extinction Level Events usually are not a single phenomena that destroyed a species, they are an unfortunate timing of multiple bad things that taken singly, the species probably would have survived. Chicxulub coinciding with activity at the Deccan traps, for example. (smacking a carbonate rich seafloor probably didn’t help matters any.)

              Probably related, is that disasters that cause great loss of life in modern society, many times are the culmination of a chain of errors or events that cascaded into full system failure and killed everybody on board.

              Somewhere between those two examples lurks the “Black Swan volcano.” In the scenario that I envision, an SO2 rich volcano that punches right on through to the stratosphere while the Earth is experiencing at least a Dalton level funk in solar activity.

              How to assign and sum the probabilities to those events is beyond me. For it to be a true Blackswan, it has to be excruciatingly improbable, so much so that it is completely unexpected. In keeping with Taleb’s Swan idea, it has to be explained away afterwards. “If only we had known about [insert thing or phenomena here].” {Example: The Japanese Tsunami}

              Much like my camera superstition, looking for it may lessen it’s likelihood. I carry a camera with me anytime I am on the road. My logic is that the really bizarre, weird and unexplainable phenomena always happen when you can’t photograph it to prove that it happened. Think of it as trying to play Murphy’s law to my advantage.

              (I’m allowed to be superstitious, I was a sailor, it’s traditional)

              As for the Camera… I haven’t seen a UFO or Skunk Ape yet! (erroneously reinforces my superstition)

            • Lurk I concur. I always had a St. Nick on the bulkhead of my Catalina 25 that I was co owned by
              several other people. When he was taken off, bad things happened.. Sails ripped people ran aground,Motor conked as you were docking ( I got good at sail repair, motorless mooring and
              using wind and current to leave the dock. (tide tables are very handy even 50miles upriver.)
              After a heated exchange at a meeting, St, Nick showed up again.
              Yes sailors of all kinds are superstitious
              I’ve told this before so forgive me if I repeated this here.

            • Using wind or current to get underway is usually a good indicator of just how skilled a captain is.

              We had a deployment schedule to keep, and one of the more adept captains I have seen got this underway from Mayport. The tugs were delayed, so He had the all lines singled up, had them release the aft lines and the rear drifted out into the basin. Then he had to forward lines released and the ship drifted out into the basin at an angle. Using the dynamics of the screws, he put a twist on and swung the bow out until we were centered up, the put on an ahead bell and out to sea we went. By that time the tugs were finished and came over to assist, but were not needed, so they motored along and monitored as requested. THAT captain was bad ass at his driving skills. He was originally from Dothan Alabama and was a no nonsense sort of skipper, and a great fan of Jimmy Buffet. He was also quite senior as Captains go, which tended to get us into port before most other ships in our group. The arrival sequence usually goes by the pennant list.

            • I can do that kind of manouvering on a normal sized sail-boat. But I would not start doing it on a big lug of iron like a fleet ship. Knowing how hard it is on a 50ft sail-boat I can only lift my hat at guys like that.

          • when is a volcano ‘dormant’, I think never it just goes to sleep for a while, some for a while longer and then …….thinking about it, making up its mind and kaboom. Geological and human timescale are totally different..

            • Good question! Possibly the best answer is “when local authorities desires it to be so”, although I prefer your definition.

            • Isn’t that what ‘dormant’ says, sleeping and capable of waking up any time, perhaps in a dormatory?

  20. For anybody who missed it, there was a good article over at Eruptions. Erik still seems to think Laguna Del Maule will put on a show eventually based off the article’s research. Of all the volcanoes that represent a realistic chance at having an extremely large eruption in the next 100 or so years, Del Maule would have to be the one you would hope would blow up due to how far out of the way it is from civilization. It would also be rather unlikely that it would erupt on a cloudy/rainy day, preventing views of the eruption.

  21. One more screenshot of the impressive lava flow oozing off the north-eastern flank of the NSEC (from Nunziata, etnaweb.net webcam)
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    chryphia edit

  22. And since the experiment with leaving a religious thread ended badly I will be doing a bit of house-cleaning upstairs.
    Yes, religion and personal religious comments is okay, but writing things just to cause strife and argumentation is not okay. After all we are not a religious community.

    • Okay I removed the thread that derailed based on rule no 5 “Be nice”.

      I also removed comments about certain athletes having used illegal doping. Neither of those who were accused have ever been sentenced for doping charges. As such I found that the comments where slanderous and bordered on the brink that we as a community could be charged in a court of law.

      THINK BEFORE YOU WRITE!!!

    • I would also like to point out that most of the comments in the “religious thread” was not a problem, but I had to remove them to clean up the thread. Also, it seems like leaving them would just invite others to write less nice things.
      To be clear, the majority of the comments was okay.

    • I thought the only religion here was worship of Vulcan or other equivalent volcanic deities – or possibly deities of sheep, daleks, cake, alcohol, plotting, storms, nothern/southern lights, quakes and that the heretics are followers of the demon nibiru

    • Hi Doc,

      I think that he meant that the consequences depend on culture, in the deeper sense of the meaning of that word.

      Serge

  23. Spent much of yesterday afternoon elbow deep in an XFR (ruggidized) laptop.

    Here is someone else’s solution for a different but equally problematic laptop.

    Personally, I use a Toshiba out in the field, but it is a flimsy little cuss. I take great care when I use it. My grandkid knocked the same model off of a balcony that belonged to a female friend of his. He got the screen replaced (by yours truly). Since I had already been inside the same model, I picked one up when I saw it had a reasonable price. If something happens to mine, it will be a loss, but it won’t be a show stopping loss. But, if you take care of something, it generally lasts.

    In Dell’s defense. A cousin of that XFR that I have worked on in this district, has been killed by lightning, dropped off the back of a motorcycle, and all sorts of really stupid things have happened to it. But it still runs. (assisted by me).

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