Volcano of the Month is Sinabung!

The lava lobe is well visible deep down on the flank. Photograph by Erdyan Naburju.

The lava lobe is well visible deep down on the flank. Photograph by Erdyan Naburju.

As you might have noticed the result from the Volcano of the Month has been a bit late in coming. The most obvious reason is of course the explosive eruption at Gunung Kelud in Indonesia that we have followed extensively since well before it started. The other reason is the extensive work I had to do to remove extra-votes from people who found it interesting to alter the result to their likeing. In the end their hard-work came to naught and Sinabung won by a landslide.

Sinabung

Treated satellite imagery showing the extensive pyroclastic flow area and the lava lobe. Image from Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP)

Treated satellite imagery showing the extensive pyroclastic flow area and the lava lobe. Image from Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP)

While having been left in the shadow of the more explosive eruption from Kelud Sinabung has continued as before with the extrusion of the ever growing lava lobe. Also the pyroclastic flows has continued unabated. It seems like Sinabung will continue to be a part of our lives for quite some time.

Kelud video

Dedel Duelzz sent us this video from the beginning of the eruption of Gunung Kelud with amazing flashes lighting up the eruption.

CARL

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142 thoughts on “Volcano of the Month is Sinabung!

  1. Tó sprecene ymbe þá Ænglisce Spræc:

    Séo Ænglisc Spræc is sibb tó þære Islendiscan Spræce. Þás twá Spræca árison fram Ealdor-Germaniscre Spræce. Swá Héah Þéodisc, Niðerlendisc and Niðerseaxisc. Ic éom Niðerlendisc wer, sé wunaþ in þæs Niðerlandes Norþ-Easternum dæle. Ic sprece Niðerlendisc, NíwEnglisc, and Héah Þéodisc.

    Gé Islendiscu léoda, gé scoldon Ænglsic rædan and sprecan kunnan!

  2. The latest VNIR Aster image from 10 Feb 2014 shows the lava thing and the extend of pyroclastic flows and ash fallout:

  3. Previously, on Volcano Café: “From the Thorarinson model…”

    Ya happen to have a link to that paper? All I can find are lake sediment papers.

    • It is in the Mt Hekla 1947-48 eruption Papers. They publshed a series of papers in a booklets. Stellar work, especially the ash depth work.
      This be the one:
      The eruption of Hekla 1947-1948. 2:3, The Tephra-fall from Hekla on March 29th 1947 / Sigurður Þórarinsson

      Booklet 1 in the series is a kick-ass write up of all historic eruptions up unto 1947 and gives the basics of the thorarinson model.

        • Not that I know… I took photo-copies of the booklets at the university library.
          I should probably have made them into pdfs…

          • Ah. ok. #Vatnafjöll did have one 30 min ago 🙂
            not Hekla this time. I think she soon go into labour, if not she goes stale

            • I am having my dubious mountains about Hekla. I wonder if that massive earthquake in Vatnafjöll right after the Hekla 2000 eruption didn’t change things.

            • Yes, some may have changed. 30% time overrun compared to next three before. That can be considered dubious. But how can a single quake change? Moving the lid to “closed” position perhaps. I do not use word “overdue” as that is unpopular in one town near the Mexican Gulf.

            • For about ten years I was surprised about how important golf was in Mexico..
              Normal mistake for a non native english-speaker.

            • Ah, Southern States Shores of The Confedarete. *not exact
              (You know if he ran out of Snowballs?)
              Any idea if a Golfball will bounce back from a Lava fountain wall, or if that can be calculated?
              (c)

            • I think it can be. Intial gut feel is that it will bounce.

              It will be a competition between how fast the outside of the golfball heats and how long it remains in contact with the surface of the lava. Once the outside gets to the point where it acts as a melted adhesive, it probably won’t bounce.

              It might bounce away in flames. The core will still be mostly protected by the cover, and that is where the bounce comes from.

            • I think if one shoots a Golf ball into a lava fountain, hawaiian style, it will have inertia and go into the lava fountain. Then explode. Hekla type, Golfer and Club be lost too.

  4. While working off of a clue that Carl dropped about the ash model, I did find a pdf on Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history. T. Thordarson and G. Larsen (2007).

    From that, I can do a quick stat plot about the interval of Hekla’s activity and demonstrate that statistically, it’s not quite ready. As you also know, volcanoes don’t follow stats or schedules and do their own thing. Think of this as more of a slow pitch up the middle for Carl to chew and comment on.

    The x position of the curve was adjusted to start at Hekla’s last party.



    Blue is the normal distribution of the Hekla data, Red curve is the cumulative probability of that curve. The percentage scale on the right side indicates the liklihood that Hekla would have gone off by then.

    Hekla repose intevals:
    Average = 51.88 Years
    Median = 47 Years
    Mode = 10 Years

      • If you mean the second red vertical line, welcome to the club. I don’t think I’ll make it that far either (at 107 I would probably just sit there and drool). Fortunately, that 95% confidence interval is on this side of that line. That means that is the prime period when she usually goes poof.

        But… Hekla is a volcano (and a tricky one at that), it could just as likely detonate in an hour.

        • Ok. Second line, That improves my chances.
          Donations for a documentary are welcome.
          If she detonates, I get no sleep. Yessss… but no risk involved.

    • I’ll get back to this in the morning when my brain is awake.

      Me and Lurk have allready had a lot of fun mileage out of Hekla and statistics, I guess it is time to open that can of worms again for the edification of newcomers.
      I think we did everything including beating the numbers with a sallad dispenser.

      • I know I did a Poisson distribution for it, but I don’t have those plots around anymore. (Like all good squirrels, they scampered away)

  5. Attempting a risky translation from French:

    Tragic party at Mount Superchampagne: Four dead.

    Explaining now…

    It is common knowledge that the Helvetians were so impressed when they saw Italians hugging each other at Solferino that they set up a convention on how people that want to hug each other in public should proceed and still try to impress it unto the Swedes.

    The sober truth of what actually motivated them to do that is that once upon a time they (well, some of them) got struck by weapons so terrible that they never wanted to go through that experience anew and up to today try to convince everyone else not to use this stuff anymore.

    Now what i have got to do it with is that some of my ancestry did it to them, and so maybe in some kind of posthumous remorse i have resolved to take that cry to heart, enquire about victims when there has been a hit, how it felt, and try to assist in putting them back together into an healthy state.

    The risky part is that the party may not be over yet for sure.

    Serge

    • Let me guess that was a combination of the Westphalian peace accord (where Suisse was banned from having an army thanks to horrible swedes) and the current Olympics where the Suisse have made great strides and actually make an impact nowadays (see silver medal in the world champs).

      I guess that the point is that Ast work with screwing the Suisse hockey players back together after they have gotten whacked by horrible swedes or finns. Or I totally missed something 🙂

      I am though pretty sure that we were not responsible for the four who died on Mount Superchampagne… The rest we are most likely guilty to, and I mean all of the rest. 🙂

      • Helvetica is a popular choice for commercial wordmarks, including those for Societe Generale, 3M, BMW, ECM, Jeep, J. C. Penney, Kawasaki, Lufthansa, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Motorola, Panasonic, Target, current logo of Speedway LLC, Texaco, and Verizon Wireless.

        Apple Inc. has used Helvetica widely in iOS (previously iPhone OS), and the iPod. The iPhone 4 uses Helvetica Neue Ultra Light.

        Helvetica is widely used by the U.S. government; for example, federal income tax forms are set in Helvetica, and NASA uses the type on the Space Shuttle orbiter.[1] Helvetica is also used in the United States television rating system. The Canadian government also uses Helvetica as its identifying typeface, with three variants being used in its corporate identity program, and encourages its use in all federal agencies and websites.

        Helvetica is a widely used sans-serif typeface developed in 1957 by Swiss typeface designer Max Miedinger with Eduard Hoffmann.


        The typeface: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helvetica

        The female national personification of Switzerland: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helvetia

  6. I can only blame that unique critter, American Female drivers.

    How else could the US contestants in the Female bobsled hit every damned thing there is to hit on the track, and still outpace the Canadians?

    It’s the only explanation I can come up with. Somehow, US females have the unique ability to get through a “boo-boo” with enough speed to be able to cause more mayhem later down the line. And this was in a back-up sled because she had trashed her original one in practice.

    … might have been texting while driving.

    Note: AFAIK it ain’t over yet. She may still be able to pull off a defeat.

    • Yeah, it’s definitely something about her being an American Female driver. In the second heat, she bested Belgium though it looked like they were going to try to make the run with a leg hanging out of the sled they had so much trouble getting in.

  7. In regards of Lurking who brought forth our old nemesis “Statistics and Volcanoes”. In this case trying to debone Hekla.

    On a brief glance Hekla really looks promising to use statistics on. After all, she erupts regularly and often. On average she erupts every 51.88 years or so. Now many of you are saying… “Wait a minute! She erupts every 10 years…” Sorry, but that is the wrong answer, and you are absolutely right. At the same time.

    Problem here is that Hekla has changed eruptive frequency 2 times for reasons totally unknown and that gives us 3 distinctly different Phases of Hekla volcanism. Here we have to drift into evolution of a volcano. A normal frequent eruptor on Iceland will start small and over the years the eruption will tend to become larger over time, like at Grimsvötn.
    Hekla is instead a very young volcano, around 8 000 years old. And she started big. For the first 7 000 years she did one eruption every 610 yars on average. Seven of these ten eruptions was a VEI-5+, the other 3 were VEI-4 eruptions. The last in this set of eruptions happened 1104AD.
    After that comes a run with eruptions that take place roughly every 60 years or so on average. The last of these is the 1947-48 eruption.
    Then, enter a brand new set of eruptions that occur roughly every ten years. But it did not… If we count 1970 as the first eruption and count untill today Heklas third phase of eruptions occur every 8,8 years. But, we do not know if Hekla is still following Phase III pattern or if it has started a Phase IV or gone back to Phase II or I. So, if we calculate with Knowns for phase III (1970 to 2000) we get a pattern rate of 1 eruption per 6 years.

    Now we should remember that a Volcano is like the weather. If it is sunny and warm today it is always most likely from a statistical standpoint that tomorrow will be the same. If you make this prognostication you will almost always have a better hit-rate than a meteorologist for the day after. But you will of course never get the changes in the weather correct*.
    So, a volcano is most likely to do the same thing the next time it goes. But it will not do exactly the same thing. The reason for this is that a volcano is within a prediction cloud**. Within the cloud of predictability the parameters can differ from eruption to eruption, but the general behaviour, size and other statistical patterns should stay the same. Also, within the Cloud there is a card saying “Do something completely different”.
    That card is interesting. Most likely the volcano will go back to doing something different that it has allready done. Take Grimsvötn as an example.
    Grimsvötn has frequent and stable eruptions that slowly evolve and grow in scale as the magma reservoir grows. Untill it pulls the Card out of the Cloud and reads either Lakí or Caldera. Lakí and Caldera has happened before as Out of the Cloud events. So they are the most likely Card-events that will break the Cloud-pattern.
    So, the question is how do you predict something that happens to Grimsvötn every either every 10 000 years (Caldera) or Lakí (every few thousand years). The answer is weighing of Cloud-patterns and Cloud-card events.

    Hekla is young so she has had 3 normal patterns and done no Cloud-Card events. So, for Hekla a new pattern or return to an old pattern would be a Card-event. (Yes, she could do something completely unexpected as a Card-event)
    So, let us start with the Phase-III cloud-pattern. It is after all most likely that Hekla will continue the same Cloud-pattern. So, we give that a weight of 1 that an eruption should on average continue to happen every 8.8 years. The Phase-II pattern is half as likely 0.5 and the Phase-I is highly unlikely with a value of 0.02.

    So, currently it should be a statistical chance of 65 percent that Hekla will stay on the same pattern, and if she changes it is a 33 percent probabillity that she will go for a 60ish intermission and a 2 percent chance she would go for a 610ish year long nap.

    CAVEAT!!!
    Everything above has nothing to do with reallity. Yes, the dates behind the numbers are real. (But as all dates they taste better if they are fresh out of the tree) Yes, patterns of eruptions happens to volcanoes. Still this is just numbers play since it does not take into account WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING currently at the volcano.
    Statistics can at best be a “within the ball-park” support-tool, but it can never ever yield a prediction. It can only be one factor in a larger equation that takes in real world data (GPSes, strainmeters, earthquakes and so on and so forth).
    You also have to look for large scale signals of change, like for instance the massive 1987 earthquake at Vatnafjöll and the two June 2000 SISZ earthquakes. This events means that the strain at Hekla has been diminished. That might be enough to change the pattern.
    Back to warning about statistics, even though I am good at it and have been using advanced statistics my entire life I sometime make the mistake of thinking that statistic modeling is a true representation of the world. It is not. At best it is a model of a potential way things may work if you are lucky (or unlucky).

    *Now, how come nutballing tinfoilers never make this kind of predictions? They always seem to go for outlandish gargantuan eruptions instead of “She will erupt the same way as the last time and at the same time”. That would give us nutballing tinfoilers that are right about half of the time… Hm… I should be quiet now.

    **Prediction clouds… Think of these as a box. The every 8.8 years eruption pattern would be the center of the box in one axis, the VEI-3 the center of another axis, and so on and so forth. The size and shape of the box is determining how likely small differences are to happen. Here is the deal, you can’t look into the box before the event happens. And you will not know the size or shape of the box before the event.
    In a way this is like Shrödingers box and cat. But here the cat is like a real cat. So we also have the options that the Cat will kill Shrödinger as he tries to put the cat inside the box, or that the cat will kill Shrödinger after he opens the box, or that the cat will go Heinlein on Shrödinger and become bored and Quantum Tunnel out of the box and go hunting for Shrödinger to kill him.
    Shrödingers cat was a thought experiment… But, it tells us very much about the world.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger's_cat

  8. And on the OT side…
    5 – 0 against Slovenia and later today the Finland vs Russia quarterfinal should be interesting.
    Canada should have no problem with disposing Latvia and the US should not have to big problems with the Czecks.
    If now only the Finns can do what they are supposed to do we will get them in the Semi. Yeah!

    • At my age (hm…) curling is my sport, so Sweden ladies v Swiss ladies 3:3 at the moment. I’m actually watching Canada v GB (also ladies) … I have a split personality 🙂

      • Curling is okay, but then you need beer… But it works as warm up before the Hockey starting in half an hour.

        • I prefer a nice glass of wine!! Good luck to your team Carl … and many thanks for all the interesting articles 🙂

          • There will be more as time goes by (articles)
            Good luck with the Curling, I am moving over to watch the Finns do unspeakable things to the Russians.

          • Terribly sorry…
            Your team played very well. Sad to see that miss on the last stone. Good luck in the bronze match! 🙂

            • Bad luck dinojura – coming fourth stinks! I guess our wee lassies screeched at those stones louder than yours did 🙂

              Having said “our” lassies, in terms of curling the “GBR” team has absolutely nothing to do with England, Ireland or Wales, but given that our Winter Olympics record is predictably sad then we’ll take anything we can get. It is a bit like Andy Murray becoming “British” when he wins, but is Scottish for the rest of the time.

      • The thing I love the most with Finns is that they are so dependable. They are really dishing out ultra-violance upon the team of Putin. 3 – 1 so far… Think this will be the second team to retire from Hockey alltogether after having a Finnish moment.

        Image and video hosting by TinyPic

        • It probably says a lot about how nuts we are… We are cheering for the Finns when they do horrible stuff like that to others, while the entire reason for them hurting people are so that they can get to us.
          Finns, an acquired taste. Being a swede, counted as a decease in most countries. Imagine what we would have done to the rest of the planet if we hadn’t gotten hooked on Hockey and beating the shit out of each other?

    • And everything is at it should be. Tomorrow at 13.00 the Olympics is going to end with either us or the Finns winning the Final.

      • Ermm … it’s the semi-final, but if you’re being ironic then I agree with you 🙂

        Can’t believe how crap Russia were – from what I have seen I don’t think Finland will give you too many problems, but then I suppose they might well be just a bit “up for it” (to put it mildly).

        For me the big game is Saturday – England vs Ireland (and my blood runs quite green in that regard!)
        No sticks, no stones, no Lycra bodysuits (at least not on top), no skis, no wind compensation, no style marks – just 30 big f***ers and a funny-shaped ball

  9. Good afternoon all! This morning before work (ca 10 hours before now) I quickly grabbed two screenshots, one off the then still working Kelut cam. I believe the cam shows the crater walls from outside, as behind them, on the left edge of the image, a persistant steam cloud was visible which I think was from the crater:

    and Etna at daybreak, with the two new vents clearly visible:

    http://volcams.malinpebbles.com/

    Schteve edit: Nice captures 🙂

    • I concur, nice pics.

      I made an update on the quakes on El Hierro, but the situation is pretty calm. Same thing on the deformation, there was a minimum lately but I think more due to instrumentation. HI10 is back (located west, not far from La Restinga) and it’s a good thing.

  10. On the MODIS Hotspot/Fire Locations overlay on Google Earth there are stil 4 hot spots seen on Sinabung and 1 in the Kelud crater. (The satellite passes over an area twice per day, the resulting .klm is updated every two hours).
    Latest data 18/19-02-2014:

  11. Hi again! Sorry I’ve not been keeping up here as much as I would like – I’ve been distracted by our floods and storms, but now the weather is calmer I’m getting back to normal.
    Here’s a link to a short article about archaeology being done on Tambora. It seems the eruption had the same effect as Pompeii in 79 and preserved a great deal under the ash. A pity the volcano had to destory such a thriving community.

    http://www.pasthorizonspr.com/index.php/archives/11/2009/re-discovering-the-lost-kingdom-of-tambora

  12. Yay!!!

    My wife spotted a hockey game on NBC’s pathetic Olympic coverage! Finland vs Russia. 😀

    Now, I’m not a follower of Hockey, and only have rudimentary knowledge of how it’s played. (a carryover from rollerhockey)

    The commentor noted that Russia needed to keep someone down on the Finish goalie to give him something to think about or to obstruct his view. Personally, I think interfering like that would be poor sportsmanship, but I didn’t invent the game. However, I did see one Russian loiter near the goalie. He got bopped in the head by someone, dunno who, but it was definitely a quick clocking. I’m pretty sure that it was a message to not hang out there.

    As for the Finish team, I think they were putting up a layered defense. All the goalie had to do was to worry about what got past his three team mates who were beating the crap out of anything coming their way. Every time Russia had the puck in their end of the rink, three or more Finns would show up near their goalie. Meanwhile, skirmishers would be out running down the Russians with the puck.

    Compared to the other one, it was quite an energetic match. Bravo Finland! (3-1).

    Of note, they did note that one of the referees was a Swede. I found that interesting as he had just called a penalty against Finland, so I don’t know why they brought that up. Being a “news” person, maybe he was trying to start something. “News” wankers only make a living if they have something to run their mouth about.

    Heh… wife just told me that the US is now playing the “Czech Republicans”. Hell, I didn’t even know the Republicans were in the competition. 😀

    • Well, now that the US have beaten the Republicans you will get to bang on the Canadians. I do not understand what they where doing, but it was rather close that you would get Latvia as opponents.

      Pretty good pick up on the particulars of hockey. The guy in the way is also supposed to be making the scores, it is a part of the game. Those are normally being bopped on the head all the time.
      Now we have the long wait untill the game against Finland starts. I honesty don’t have a clue which of us will win that game.


  13. “Albert Einstein once said: “There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.”

    And how we react to it see it as a miracle, or a form of suffering?
    Whatever you think you do not have to reposition the sorrow and hardships but always imagined happiness
    because life is a choice”
    (translated by google)

    • Seems like that was the confirmed data, the automatic put it as a M4.3
      Would be nice if our UKian friends could write about this medium sized earthquake.

    • well looking at this I see azimuth an that sort of thing, but no beachball – presumably the numbers here are just those things that are normally represented by a beachball, can someone more accustomed to interpreting these things say if it was strike/slip or normal faulting etc ?

  14. Not a whole lot to report. British Geological Society has it as M4.1 in the Bristol Channel, some way out to sea. A few reports of “swaying buildings’ but no reported damage. Even if it had been where the EMSC plot put it, it would have been under Exmoor which is very sparsely populated

    Hartland is the nearest seismometer – this is the plot:

      • 4.0+ not uncommon off the southern Oregon coast one reason we had library shelves and china cabinets bolted to the walls… At least they do not have that ‘ol Demon that lives under the water
        (blanco Plate of the Juan de Fuca) ..

      • Found this, it may be interesting for some.
        “AHEAD, the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data 1000-1899, is a distributed archive aiming at preserving, inventorying and making available, to investigators and other users, data sources on the earthquake history of Europe, …AHEAD consists of independent regional archives, a general repository and a collaborative inventory. At present, it mainly relies on eight regional, online macroseismic archives, which supply most of the data … The AHEAD collaborative inventory has been compiled and updated by the NERIES NA4 and SHARE Task 3.1 co-ordinating institution (INGV) and partners. …”
        It can be queried by earthquake or by data source. Only drawback, the map is very sluggish.

        http://www.emidius.eu/AHEAD/index.php
        You might find more interesting stuff on http://www.emidius.eu , lots to explore.

        Maybe we should keep it in the Dragons Hoard Earthquake Databases page?

        • Just found out in the AHEAD database that there was an eq in my area on 24 August 1406 of Mw 4.2 (didn’t say if it was AM or PM 😉 ) It had an Io of 6. – I have to look up what Io (epicentral macroseismic intensity) is, or can someone explain it in a few words?

          • My guess is that is is similar to MMI. Denotes the specific shaking in an area. (bricks flying up in the air, dogs barking etc…)

        • Amazingly how bad our own geological authority is at cooperating with anyone.
          According to this map we are not in any danger of earthquakes. The only way this could have happened is due to lack of reporting to the Earthquake hazzard program.

          In reallity the area outside of Gothenburg should be brown (known M6.5) Stockholm area should be orange and can most likely produce larger earthquakes. And then we have the northern half of the batic sea coast that should be brown. and the entire Iron Fields (Malmfälten) and Goald Field Area should be blue.

          Just to put it into perspective, we have 3-events every year, 4-events every decade and up to 6.5s every century and that is just on my little piece of coastline.
          I think I will have to do a post on this and kick my own authority in the arse.

          • In my own area USGS is next to Useless. there are quakes here usually no more than +6.
            Historically but recorded in spots and out-of the way references. Oregon State University
            has a good resource, and Eastern Oregon University here in La Grande, but the individual
            has to dig. Like our recent 3.0 is definitely connected to some activity on the south western
            flank of the Olympia Wallowa Lineament, (Owl) . No one has put it all in one spot let alone the
            USGS… Imagine my surprise to find a Grande Ronde Valley fault system-USGS has no idea it
            exists…

          • @Carl: Well, if you have a suspect fault location and size, I can run the “Did You Feel It?” model against it and find out what the MMI levels would be around it. You can extend that to the population exposure. I havn’t implemented that part of the USGS Pager stuff. Too many data points and vagaries to deal with in a simple spreadsheet.

            • I will see if I can dig it out of our version of the USGS.
              Problem is just that we are a Third World Country in regards of earthquake geology. They literaly know squat about things.
              Reason is that any good geologists here are into mining, the medium good ones are mining geologists abroad, so only the real scraping on the bottom of the barrel are into quakes. Yes, we do have Erik Sturkell… But he was not trained here.

  15. Carl: you should do a post just on your previous comment! It was a delightful read on statistics and volcanoes, particularly Hekla.

    I also enjoy statistics, patterns, cycles, and black swan unexpected change of patterns. Recently I am studying chaotic behavior and theory, and trying to see whether I can apply it to the timelines of volcanic eruptions. I don’t want to say its possible to predict better using it, but I am open for anything it can be of help. Also I want to understand why volcanoes behave irregular.

    Carl, do you happen to have the data for those seven VEI5+ eruptioons in the first 7000 years of Hekla. Somehow GVP doesn’t have it. But I know you are on the right path because in our soil profiles there are evidence of several large Hekla eruptions in the early and mid Holocene, probably more than just Hekla 3,4 and 5. Couldn’t it be that VEI2 or VEI3 also occurred but were just not recorded?

    On Grimsvotn: do you know the data of the 3 caldera forming events? I want to get data for the eruption history of Grimsvotn froma source that could be more complete than GVP.

    Back to Hekla: my bet is just that Hekla has changed slightly the pattern due to the 2000/2008 quakes. It will still do a near future eruption, but could be even only by 2020 (20 years lag is not that much).It will probably be stronger than just a mid VEI3. Maybe a large VEI3 or small VEI4 as it starts, but a day or so later goes back to effusive mode.

    What about the fact that not only Hekla and Vatnsfjoll seem to operate in excluding eruptions, but also Hekla and Katla. For instance, during a highly active period of Katla (circa year 900), Hekla was profoundly asleep. And as Hekla recently highly active (eruptions every 10 years or so), Katla is having its longest sleep period. Or perhaps its not an excluding mode, but rather a link, a pattern, in that region, that when volcano changes a pattern, so does their neighbours. This region/group is Hekla, Katla, Vatnsfjoll, and probably also Eyjafjallajokull and Torfajokull.

    One paper has stated that this region eruptive overall behavior seems to run in cycles, just like the volcanic region in Vatnajokull or the Reykjanes region. Obviously, and as usual with me, can’t remember this paper…

    • Holy hork… I could do a post on each of your questions… Answer will be coming to your questions, but it will be on sunday or monday that they start arriving due to todays post.

  16. Parkour (French pronunciation: ​[paʁˈkuʁ]) is a holistic training discipline using movement that developed from military obstacle course training. Practitioners aim to get from A to B in the most efficient way possible.They do this using only their bodies and their surroundings to propel themselves; furthermore, they try to maintain as much momentum as is possible in a safe manner. Parkour can include obstacle courses, running, climbing, swinging, vaulting, jumping, rolling, quadrupedal movement, and the like, depending on what movement is deemed most suitable for the given situation.

    Also known as “Free running.” it has a steep learning curve.

    May contain strong language. Considering how much it hurts, you can understand why. These are young primates that are not quite physically suited for the maneuvers they are trying to make. Genetically, they are a bit too far removed from Gibbons to have an innate ability. Evidently they didn’t gain anything from the divergence.

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