The Calm before the Storm


Water drainage basins at the glacier bed for the principal rivers draining Vatnajökull. Subglacial water-filled cupolas, located under depressions in the glacier surface, collect meltwater and periodically drain by means of jökulhlaups. In order to determine water divide locations on a regional scale, a model was employed which assumed that water pressure at the glacier bed is approximately equal to the ice overburden pressure. – Vatnasvæði helstu jökulfljóta sem falla frá Vatnajökli. (From Reviewed Research Article ” Icelandic Glaciers ” By Helgi Björnsson and Finnur Pálsson)

First, a few reminders:

* The vedur / en.vedur servers are VITAL to the Icelandic authorities responsible for Public Safety. Do not UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE post a link / picture here or on ANY other website as this can cause and has caused their main server to crash!!! .
* Official news (stone tablets) will be issued through the appropriate Icelandic authorities as and when. Do not treat or quote what is published on VolcanoCafé as official news! This is a blog and much of what is posted here is speculative.
* While we all want to know what’s going on, please restrain your curiosity! Especially if there is an eruption as literally hundreds of thousands of people will want to know. The servers will crash, so don’t overload them with continuous refreshs (F5)!
* While we try and respond to questions as much as we can, please understand that none of the “staff” at VolcanoCafé are employed! We are all volunteers. Almost all of us have regular jobs to take care of first and foremost. In a crisis such as this, we ask you please to respect that our foremost concern is to keep the blog open and running, updating it as expediently possible!
* Please spare a thought for those who visit this blog looking for information and who may be very worried about the ongoing events, especially if they are likely to be directly affected if a large-scale eruption occurs. Many of our newcomers are knowledgeable, but others are not, and are perhaps unable to filter what is a genuine scientific appraisal from what is speculative armchair theory. While the nature of what might or might not happen is naturally providing a source of good-spirited, healthy and fascinating debate, during which speculations and assumptions abound, remember we are an amateur science blog and not a place for alarmist doomsday talk that has no basis in fact. Please pause a second to think about this before posting your views.

The most important news from the morning is what the premier expert on subglacial eruptions, Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, said in an interview for RUV (in Icelandic):

Sigkatlar = Ice Cauldrons

Map (RUV) of the NW part of Vatnajökull showing the location of the Ice Cauldrons mentioned by Professor Guðmundsson

The last time this happened was at Katla in 2011 when there was a small, subglacial eruption that resulted in several such cauldrons and a small jökulhlaup that nevertheless was powerful enough to remove a bridge. This does not have to be an actual magmatic eruption. The enormous amount of heat introduced has caused tremendous hydrothermal activity which is evident from the blue, 2 – 4Hz tremor lines.

These “sigkatlar”, Ice Cauldrons, are from the days just before the 1996 Gjálp eruption (Visir, Is)

Earlier today, scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and University of Iceland took a number of flights over the region. Icelandic journalist and pilot Omar Ragnarsson who reported on this issue was involved in another flyover. The biggest development was the discovery of a number of depressions, “sigkatlar” or ice cauldrons, in the glacier that caps the volcano’s caldera. These cauldrons number over a dozen and are relatively shallow, only 10-15 metres, and form a string that spans some 4-6 km along the surface of the ice.

When looking at the video: The flight path entered from Skaftáreldar, then overflew the Bardarbunga central volcano after which the aircraft circled the Dyngjujökull where there are several cracks in the glacier as well as a (monogenetic) cone from a previous eruption.

For the sake of clarity, it is perhaps best to divide the summary between the two areas of activity, Bardarbunga and the front of the intrusion moving north.


All events shown are over Mag 3 – the date and time of the event is shown in the title bar

Over the past days, mention has been made of a possible subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera due to magma flowing out from under the Central Volcano and into the main dike. What is certain is that the massive amounts of heat introduced by this magmatic intrusion has activated the hydrothermal system – water in cracks in the ground going down several kilometres – underneath the volcano. This is evident from the heightened activity in the blue 2-4Hz line of the tremor plots. The appearance of the Ice Cauldrons mentioned by Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson point to activity between the glacier and bedrock which can be explained by either a) the increase in hydrothermal activity, and/or b) an ongoing magmatic eruption, possibly a couple of kilometres in length as indicated by the location of the “sigkatlar”, ice cauldrons.

The Intrusion Front

All events shown are over Mag 3 – the date and time of the event is shown in the title bar

Continued earthquake activity indicates that the intrusion is still progressing northwards towards Askja but at a slower rate. In the interview for RUV, Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson said that the dike may run as far down as a depth of 18 km which could be interpreted that it runs from a depth of 5 to 18 km at its maximum extent. Our own Carl Rehnberg, PhD, says that his personal tracking of the earthquakes yields this figure for most of its length but that it in two locations expands to 2.5 by 20 km.

Possible Jökulhlaup

According to Professor Guðmundsson “Around 30-40 million cubic meters [1,1-1,4 billion cubic feet] of water have flowed from under there but we don’t know whether this has been happening in the past days or just today [yesterday]. However, by what we can see on earthquake monitors there are no indications of a great volcanic eruption taking place.”

This while substantial is enough water to form only a smaller, yet potentially lethal jökulhlaup. The amount corresponds to the content of 12,000 to 16,000 Olympic size swimming pools (Olympic swimming pool = 2500 cubic metres).


with assistance of dfm and the dragons

This is the update with no zoom.

406 thoughts on “The Calm before the Storm

  1. Wow, it took a long time to catch up having not properly caught up since last nigt. I’ve returned from (puts on best Brian Blessed voice) ‘THE NORTH’ and am now back home. It was a rather intense read too, with dust, cracks, cauldrons, midnight quakes, Askja on yellow alert, and of course lots of good discussion.

    I can only umagine how tired and weary, yet excited and apprehensive IMO must be feeling in this state of the unknown. Thanks to them for all their hard at keeping everyone safe and the world informed! And thanks to the Dragon’s for keeping everything in order, especially those newly appointed!!

    And so although I can’t contribute very much to the discussion here, I’d like to bring another kind of dust to the conversation, and wish everyone a safe and friendly evening 🙂

  2. BTW: Thank you for the post, but the President of Iceland is Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson.
    Ómar Ragnarsson is a journalist and pilot.

    DragonEdit: Corrected in the text, thanks for spotting this mistake!

    • I don’t think that the President of Iceland was on one of the flights.

      And Ómar Ragnarsson and the scientists didn’t fly in the same machine, but in two machines at different times.

    • While we are doing corrections I mistyped research when crediting the creators of the glacier drainage map posted above.

      (From Reviewed Reasearch Article ” Icelandic Glaciers ” By Helgi Björnsson and Finnur Pálsson)

      DragonEdit: fixed that for you 🙂 /U

  3. I have been guilty of posting a few links via twitter and another board site. I do apologize for doing that, going forward I will repeat that. Thank you to to all the dragons for keeping the site going, to all who has added to this site too. 🙂

    DragonApproval: No need to apologise and thank you! 🙂 / Pyrite
    DragonPuff: we try to keep things cool and working./dfm
    DragonTalking: Now Rick can say that he has had 3 Dragons talking out of his “mouth” /Carl

  4. According to IMO news brief today, the dyke has reached the Askja fissure system…
    “Since yesterday, the length of the dyke under Dyngjujökull has increased by 1-1.5 km to the north, which is considerably less than in the last days. The dyke has now reached the fissure system of the Askja volcano and GPS measurements indicate that the area there is greatly affected”

    Please, no vedur links!

  5. Very appropriate named post. The Hurricane is due Sunday. A true hurricane Hurricane.
    High winds and lots of rain and all that. Ideal for not seeing anything and staying in bed.
    🙂 😎 …. *not expert*
    *no link, references intentionally left blank*

    • Try the Dragon’s Hoard (menu) if you want something more to read. Links to some of the most interesting articles and scientific papers there!

  6. Seriously now, looking at the SIL station graphs, they have been all over the place in recent days, but the relevant stations (askja, dyn etc) now seem to be showing a steady and slow rise in activity without any peaks thus far. Am I being daft for suggesting this may be indicating a general increase in pressure?

    • There is uptick in total number of quakes (48 hrs).
      IMO gives now… Fjöldi skjálfta:
      Stærð minni en 1 alls: 503
      Stærð 1 til 2 alls: 1782
      Stærð 2 til 3 alls: 257
      Stærri en 3 alls: 18
      Samtals: 2560

  7. The mantle stuff is hotter and has a higher melting point than the rhyolite in Askja’s reservoir volumes. Should they mix (actually rare that you have these two materials really mixed), mixing would probably lower the melting point of the sauce. Chemists correct me at will. Would such a process help melting stuff in the reservoir that wouldn’t have been eruptible without adding mantle stuff? So without talking of the explosivity and viscosity of the new mixture, would we have quite a fast increase of eruptible volume under Askja compared to what we think if and when the juices interact? And in the beginning of the process we wouldn’t see much of it, and then suddenly have surprises? Many things that would happen without seismic signs that we would really be able to interprete correctly…
    Thoughts on that?

    DragonReading: I can recommend this – / Pyrite

    • 1. – Earthquakes on the Moon. Yup!
      2. – No, certainly not!
      2. – Definately Moonquakes!
      1. *not expert*

    • Frankly (and I know my way around thermo and chemistry a bit), no one can predict what will happen, from a chemical point of vue. you have lavas which are unique, meeting new material. All bets are off. Best ways would be study previous eruptions I think.

      • I am staunchly of the opinion that this has not happened as far as I know or have ever seen any evidence of.

        We are most likely seeing 3 different volcanoes interacting now, and there is just no way we predict anythin anylonger. We have not only left Kansas, we have also left the Emerald City…

      • There were times when I had to make a lot of phase diagrams. That would give a hint, but we would need to have good info on the chemistry. And often the diagrams gave surprising results.
        So if in addition to that someone like you says we can’t know, then it shall be my conclusion concerning that matter… 🙂

    • Well, if I translate your recipe into German, then Klingon, then back to Kiwi I think you are talking about something similar to what happened at Taupo.. rhyolite typically erupts at at about 800°C, basalt at 1100°C.. now, where’s the b**+dy control for the heat on this gas burner.. does anyone here speak Icelandic? Oh shite, how much basalt do we inject to get.. etc…

      but Erik already covered this in his post. Mike and I both suspect you might not get much forewarning when a basaltic injection rejuvenates a rhyolitic mush. The best thing here is we are most likely talking about a tiny rhyolite reservoir compared to the TVZ… still might be interesting though how this plays out if it gets that far (big IF)…

      • Oh, ok. Thank you. Missed Erik and you on that. Really hate to have to work when something like that is going on. Days need to have 48 hours…

      • Water is the key, for energy transfer. So it depends on fracturation and rock water content – at depth. This equation is unsolvable. Too many parameters

      • Am I the Mike you invoked? If so, DING!

        I have long speculated what would happen if an extremely forceful, volatile-rich, violent basaltic intrusion like Tarawera intersected a large rhyolite body.

        Tarawera on its own was a VEI 5 remember. I believe it’s *possible* that such an extremely sudden violent event (there were only a few hours of precursory seismicity, and the entire VEI 5 eruption was over in one night) could, if it intersected the right rhyolite body, trigger a VEI 7 eruption with virtually no warning.

        Disclaimer: NONE of this applies to Iceland (I devoutly hope not anyway!)

      • The trouble with the “Tarawera very little”warning scenario is that there was not modern(or any for that matter lol)seismic,gas or deformation monitoring in 1886, if there were subtle signs they may have been present for months beforehand and there certainly wasn’t in 186CE with Taupo ,let alone people to witness it.It is kind of like trying to figure out dinosaur behaviour from their fossils!

    • PS I don’t think your scenario it is at all unusual. I suspect many rhyolitic eruptions are actually triggered by basalt intrusions. The Oranui eruption almost certainly was (according to CN Wilson). Tarawera would probably have led to one if not Haroharo had already more or less emptied the system shortly beforehand.

      • Yes, that basaltic intrusions trigger rhyolitic eruptions is “common”. What I was wondering about was if they actually mixed. Because often you get more of a mush, and more a syn-eruptive mixing. It’s heat and energy more than chemical mixing that bursts it. But I wonder if in this context we could face “actual” mixing.
        But as said by DFM it’s too complex to predict, and as you say it’s not unusual that both materials meet and lead to a bang; so there’s finally no point in thinking about that more than necessary. Will not ad to our understanding of the event for now…

        • ah, now I get you….. the petrological papers I have read about the TVZ (Wilson, Sutton, Charlier, et al) all talk about much longer time scales if you want true chemical mixing. The other thing is how do you want to have mixing in a crystal mush unless the mush is hot enough to allow transport of fluids? You are talking about some serious timescales there.. and in the end all you are doing is adding more alkaline to an already fractionated felsic column. Short term mixing is merely mechanical and comes out in the wash, so to speak, if the body erupts.

          • then again… maybe I don’t get you. Most evolved bodies develop from either fractionation of primitive magmas or rejuvenation of plutonic bodies. Mixing is what it is all about, over time. Or are you trying to envisage what chemical mixing could go on at really short time scales?
            Or maybe I should just go to bed.

          • Then it’s clear.
            And I admit that if I think back, I have only seen (by myself and that means no so many examples) full mixing in plutons, and not in eruptiva.
            Thanks Bruce.

    • Mixing two pure substances lowers the melting point, but magma is not a pure substance. Geoloco is right on this…There are a lot of things that could happen, depending on the compositions, and we don’t know the actual composition of either component. The most significant effect will probably be that the basalt is at a higher temperature than the melting point of rhyolite, causing some of the solid parts to melt. That is assuming the intrusion actually runs into rhyolite!

  8. There will be eruption tonight. I do not know where.
    There is no ongoing eruption in “Veitekkihverfjall”.
    *not expert*
    *no link*

      • Sorry, that didn’t come out quite the way I intended, I meant storm as in what people are talking about. It didn’t help, I didn’t realise it would leave a post here, so it ended up being a bad choice of words.

        • Ok, no prob. Problem have Hurricane, plus three of Iceland most biggest-active volcanoes chippin in… Inject three plumes into a Hurricane …. now where is the plotters … I need plot of Sunday of ex-Hurricane with three Volcanoes contributing. That be Alarmist attitude,eh? 🙂 😎 ….

  9. Just as comments die down and I catch up on (most) of what has happened, the Dragons go and write another article, while I was writing about my Icelandic mini-adventure. I’ve always had a passing interest in geology generally (although my specialist scientific knowledge is in microorganisms), but finding this site has stirred my natural curiosity and need to look at data. Of course, my recent visit to Iceland also fuelled the fires of knowledge-seking. Keep up the theories, I’ll do my best to understand them and in the meantime, I have also reblogged this article.

  10. The hurricane will do interesting things with any airborne particulates. Hopefully lots of rain to clean the air, though.

  11. Follow­ing the seismic acti­vity in nort­hwestern Vatna­jök­ull the IMO has recei­ved permissi­on to reveal the chap­ter Bárðarbunga System, from a lar­ger assess­ment that will soon be pu­blis­hed on all of Iceland’s volcanoes. The secti­on is compi­led by Guðrún Lar­sen and Magnús T. Guðmunds­son of the Institu­te of Earth Sciences, Uni­versity of Ice­land. The follow­ing is a short prec­is from the orig­inal docu­ment crea­ted by Guðrún and Magnús.

    • Ice melted off the Bunga and Tumafjall was revealed 8-)…. *not expert*
      I think Magnus Tumi was wrong Saturday in saying there was no eruption.
      Let IMO run the show shall we? They were right, I belive. *no caveat*

      • Yes, that’s LA alright! We here in Southern California think, yes, Iceland looks quite the same, except with a glacier under the SUV. *nonexpert opinion, not fact-based, jk, have never lived in LA, don’t go there unless I have to, still looking for my ruby slippers, delete this post if you want to, I won’t be offended. Love, Dorothy*

        • Ah, Kansas, Tinman, Rabitt, Dorothy, no ?
          “Not in Kansas anymore” (Oz, 1939)

          Cast & Crew: Victor Fleming Director
          King Vidor Director
          Judy Garland Dorothy [Gale]
          Frank Morgan Professor Marvel [/The Wizard of Oz/Doorkeeper of Emerald City/The coach driver/Wizard’s doorkeeper]
          Ray Bolger “Hunk” [/The Scarecrow]
          Bert Lahr “Zeke” [/The Cowardly Lion]
          Jack Haley “Hickory” [/The Tin Man]
          Billie Burke Glinda
          Margaret Hamilton Miss [Almira] Gulch [/The Wicked Witch of the West]
          Charley Grapewin Uncle Henry
          Pat Walshe Nikko
          Clara Blandick Auntie Em
          The Singer Midgets The Munchkins
          Mitchell Lewis Guard

    • Absolutely not …. I certainly don’t think there are that many skyscrapers in Iceland. 😉 (By the way – what tyres do these cars have that they can drive over molten lava without melting?)

      • Yup, seems so. Is that enlist say “No Off-road …”!?
        Recently I was threaten-ened (?) by local law enforcement “Löggimann” on off road driving, in middle of Reykjavik, just near Höfði House. I got off by saying never do that again.
        I had stopped off on side of the road. Seems no parts excluded. But does that say there are Highland Roads in downtown Reykjavík? No, but they are bad….

    • No, not at all! It is a picture of the inside of my stomach at the moment. Ate fish and chips lunchtime. Badly cooked with greasy batter! Wont go to that cafe again. 😦

    • Drat! Looks like another “spare the air” day then…. 🙂

      (what’s with the suspension bridges going through the middle of town? Do they telescope when the rifts separate?)

        • Yeah, but with two copies of the (old) Oakland-SF Bay Bridge, and what looks like the (Oakland) Tribune building on the lower right…add to that the lights of Las Vegas and the smoke from the 1975 Tujunga Canyon fire (I seem to remember two days with grey ash over my car, almost no sun and a red blob where the sun should be…ouch)…maybe someone wants San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras to let go at the same time (not me… is more than enough)….miss the City and LA too…wasn’t there a movie about LA called “Streets of Fire”?
          Just thought – Daly City, Oakland hills, and San Jose…whoa…

  12. Hey guys … thank you for all your time and hard work on this site… just want to add (and this comes from someone who grew up on the north of Scotland which is pretty darned spectacular… ) my word Iceland is simply stunning. Lets hope that the coming weeks/months do not change that too much.

    I have never had the chance to go and see it for myself but one day I will and I can not wait….

    Stay safe ….

  13. It seems curious how quiet the rest of Iceland is while “stars” get all of the attention. As a total non-expert it almost looks like it’s relieving pressure all over Iceland and makes me wonder just how big this is at depth. Has this sort of behaviour been witnessed in previous similar episodes?

    • There has never been anything like this witnessed on Iceland, nor anywhere else.
      This is why even we who have spent years studying and reading everything are doing splits and play lip-banjo out of exitment.

      • Can you elaborate in simple terms what is unique. Is it the magnitude of what is occurring along with the direct involvement of 2 major systems?

  14. Really enjoying the site. Sunday won’t be fun. [img][/img]

        • Actually, the tip of the predicted path on this map contains an “S,” not an “H”. This means it is likely to downgraded to a storm, not a hurricane, before it reaches Iceland. *nonexpert, but familiar with NOAA maps*

      • And *that* is why I don’t plan to take the final flight to Iceland until middle of next week 🙂

        Various volcanoes may modify this thinking. You know what they say: “If you want to make the Goddess laugh, tell Her your plans for tomorrow…”

        (My personal deity appears to be Eris…)

        • FNORÐ!

          Just wondering what the effect of a hurricane on an ash plume is: will it drop loads of ash downwind or just scatter it more? Would it prevent any ash from reaching the upper atmosphere?

          • Well, it did not do a lot of difference on Pinatubo. That eruption just slammed straight through the cyclone that occured during the main phase of the eruption.

      • Looking at the models I’ve seen, Cristobel will starting hitting Iceland in the early hours if Sunday morning. At 6.00 am, the isobars are the tightest I’ve seen for a while, tighter I think than the storms that hit the UK last year (and they were pretty powerful), although differences in scales make comparison more difficult.

  15. Captured something glowing on the webcam 20-30 minutes ago. Not sure I know how to link to the photo correctly, but I’ll give it a shot…

  16. Anyone noticed how the confirmed EQ readings from kistufell, seem to be getting deeper? When we all got excited as we hit the weekend, they were 5-10k, now alot more deeper than that.

    Coincides with the numerous 3+ EQ and I’m wondering if this is as a result of the Rock being split apart wider the deeper it goes. Thus creating the wedge shape dike and eventually finding a way down to the mantle.

    Do we know if wedge shape can created by intrusion working it’s way downwards? Oh how far to the mantle here, 30k?

  17. State of Emergency?

    (Björk’s song is actually called Joga – and has some beautiful earthquake sounds in it)

  18. So much for the calm. Tremor just reached levels we haven’t seen for two days. My guess is that the dyke hit some sort of a magma chamber or other cavity that caused the whole plumbing system to depressurize and took about 40 hours to repressurize, hence the low levels of tremor in the meantime.

    This day is going to be more interesting than yesterday.

  19. I can’t help noticing there’s something of a party vibe going on here – there are some very excitable dragons and volcanoholics around this evening!

    • We have multiplied a bit… and that makes the job easier.
      And a bit of celebrating that our most venerable Dragon is once again walking amongst us.
      And TGIF!!!

      Nah, to be honest we are just nuts, but we have tried to hide it from all the newcomers. I guess all of what I have written is true. 🙂

  20. * “As things presently stand, the odds are that the magma-driven fracture (a dike intrusion) may propagate into the Askja magma chamber,“ says Dr. Gudmundsson. “If the dike intrusion enters the magma chamber of Askja, it is very likely that this event would rupture that chamber and possibly trigger an eruption of Askja.”

    * He estimates that the total volume of magma that has entered the dike intrusion is 1 – 2 cubic kilometers

    * “What we are observing here is an exceptional event”, says Agust Gudmundsson. “This is the first time that we observe a dike intrusion from one volcanic system propagating into another volcanic system

  21. Hey Guys/Gals, I was pondering this hurricane coming and what kinds of effects it could have with all of stuff going on. Not that the hurricane could cause anything to happen, but what kind of effects could it have if it arrives just after an eruption started? From listening to you chat the past couple of days, there could be a few different types of eruptions and different stuff shot into the atmosphere. What would be the worst kind of eruption to have with a hurricane showing up during?

  22. Okay
    Firstly we can not have a Hurricane in this area, This can have hurricane force winds or gusts but would be a sub tropical storm. Thats due to location.
    There is another area that is of interest off the inter tropical convergence zone which i expect to become Dolly or Edwardo? and take similar track in early september.
    People talked earlier about storm surge and Atmospheric pressure.
    What you have is a combination of forces, Storm surge is the effect of the wind pushing the body of water, you also have effect of Atmospheric pressure pushing down on the water. As the pressure decreases, as in the approach of a low pressure system the forces (pressure) on the water decreases and so this can have effect on height. The most significant force thou is tidal. In the North we have higher tidal ranges. The effect is also greater during Spring tides ( nothing to do with the seasons) This is when the tide goes at its greatest range.. So you get very low and high tides. The opposite is neap tides, this is where difference in tidal range is lowest. So high and low tide have least movement.
    All these effects have significance in flooding of coasts, but i can find no evidence of atmospheric pressure effecting Volcanos. We did have the closest approach of the moon, around the time this all started, but for now i see that as nothing more than a coincidence. I have looked for evidence that gravitation effect that moon has on tides has effect with volcanic eruptions but i found nothing conclusive. I think these forces are huge above ground but less so beneath.
    Severe gales with an eruption would certainly make some interesting viewing, however i suspect visibility would be poor due to cloud and rain. The good effect would be that it could effect the ability of any plume to reach potential height .
    The other effect is that Severe Gales and heavy rain could effect the harmonic tremor charts, making it difficult for us to get a clear indication of activity.
    Thats my contribution for today – done

    • I’m not referring to pressure having an effect on the volcano, i’m curious what happens if a tropical depression arrives as its erupting, with Gayle force winds and such…
      I guess in my head i’m picturing a large eruption (like Mt Saint Helens) getting hit with a servere tropical depression (if a Hurricane cannot hit that area)

      Maybe its impossible, and if so then feel free to erase the question. 😉

      • Its a good question.
        The biggest effect thou is quite negative for us.
        We lose a lot of the data on harmonics due to wind noise, plus possible power outages.
        We also lose visibility due to cloud.
        The wind can also cause the toxic gasses to be blown closer to the ground further than on a calm day, although it would also dilute those gases.
        It may blow any fountain lava into spectacular patterns but would we see it through the low cloud.

        • I live in a cyclone area so I understand what you mean by storm surge – we had one during Cyclone Yasi. Though it happened at high tide, fortunately it wasn’t a king tide (what you call a spring tide) but it did result in lots of flooding of low lying areas.

          I also have a question for you: what effect might a storm deluge have on the newly-formed cracks and ice cauldrons?

  23. Jeez, this is just getting me pondering more.. lol If its a large Volcano eruption, could that force the Hurricane on a different path? Not sure what would happen when a larger depression runs into a massive Plume, which can create their own atmospheric events, correct?

  24. The “hurricane” will be reduced to a typical autumn rainstorm, shortlived and it poses no problem for the indigenous Icelanders. If there is something we are used to its winds. From the prediction this one is not expected to be anything out of the norm. B.T.W. I have been following this from the onset some years back. A huge thanks for the wealth of info and cheerful attitude.Some really good dragons in there.

  25. No , or no noticeable effect on the storm? The direction of the storm is determined by two main factors, atmospheric pressure Around it ( The blocking high pressure) which is extremely large. This pushes against the system and they squeeze past each other ( very basic explanation) . The storm will take easiest route. Secondly the Jet stream will also effect its path. it passes through the jet stream and this can cause a intensification due to venturi reaction. The Jetstream lays to the South of Iceland and once it passes through its most likely to stay above the jet stream.
    A large eruption can cause weather changes, but this would be over a period of time and caused by dust particles reflecting sunlight and some gas releases that could effect the greenhouse gas effects. We are talking major eruptions and prolonged eruptions and a time lag for that kind of effect

  26. Askja questions

    Does anyone know if Askja was inflating before this event?
    I’m just guessing that an eruption at Askja shall happen regardless if not this year but sooner now. Does anyone think that is a possibility?

  27. Hi @mopshell @carl

    After various questions “whats that mean, how why where etc etc ”

    If anyone looking for good books to get a basic grounding in geology / volcanology these would be worth a look

    Teach yourself geology &
    Teach yourself volcanoes earthquakes and tsunami s
    By Dave Rothery

    They re been recommended by Erik Klemetti in a tweet earlier today

    Might be worth putting a note in dragons hoard.

  28. Trying again, because I’m really curious what I saw here. I was about to walk away from the computer when I saw two small flares. They died down quickly. Then about 60 seconds later, two more. These started small, grew, and also died down, though they lasted slightly longer. The screen capture is of the second instance. Any thoughts?

    Link fixed /DraGra

  29. My day deteriorated after Midday. Family upsets that have taken up my time and patience. Evening meal was late and then interrupted by another hysterical phone call. Then a friend with a problem arrived on the doorstep.
    I am here finally 🙂 I have caught up…ish

    The café has strange vibes in it tonight. Reminiscent of a maternity ward waiting room 😀

    • I’ve noticed that, in the past few days, Bárðarbunga has obliged us with a big quake after a red spike like the one we’re seeing now. The following is rather fuzzy on the tremor chart because I had to stretch it to match the timescale on the earthquake magnitude chart. It was created on the 26th:

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