2nd. fissure eruption started.

Today in the morning hours the fissure which had produced lava flows 2 days ago erupted again. One could get quite a good glimpse on the ongoing eruption on the Milacams.

The eruption occurs at the same place as last time ( Holuhraun). The fissure seems to be 1,5 to 1,8 km long. It appears in a place called Holuhraun ( Quote Carl: “Soon to be Holudyngja, and after that we have Holubunga.” ) but the lava comes from Bardarbunga through a fewer tube. The new shield volcano which might be forming does not yet have a magma chamber of its own.

21onbyd

Eruption starting.CreditS: Junior

 

Both following gifs by sCyborg

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Tremor looked like this: Thanks BillG

fk1l5sImages from the University of Iceland start popping up on Twitter and many of them are simply stunning.

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New lavaflows. Credit Uni Iceland via Twitter

New lavaflows. Credit Uni Iceland via Twitter

avalonlightphotoart did a lay over to google earth showing the quake locations in the morning.

Credit xxx

Credit xxx

23sx3r7-1Peter Cobbold translated with Giggle:

http://www.mbl.is 08:32
Giggle Translate

“This is a much more powerful eruption than the last. It is much, much more lava coming in this eruption, but the volcano, “says Sveinbjörn Steinþórsson technician from the Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, but he looked eruption of lava pocket this morning, along with other scientists.

“Strokes are 20-30 meters high. There are no explosions in the eruption. The eruption occurred at the exact same place as the other day, except that the crack reaches 700-800 meters further to the north. The crevice is out on the sand, ie out of the hole lava.

This is much more healthy than the eruption of the day. The activity is stable at about 1,200 meters long fissure. There is a crater south part of the rift is odd, then erupts in all the cracks. ”

Sveinbjörn Steinþórsson technician from the Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland also saw the eruption that began August 29. That eruption lasted only about four hours. “It really fizzy died immediately. It reduced the time we were running from the hole lava, but started up again in a few moments. This eruption has been more active since we got on at. 6 in the morning and it does not seem to be falling down. The eruption now changed little while we were watching it. It Jost bit while we were running out and has been a constant for about two hours. It’s been quite a lot of lava here on the east side of the crack, but we can not see what it is yet much lava west side. ”

The scientists returned from the eruption site on kl. 8 in the morning. The weather was beginning to deteriorate. Considerably high sand storm is in the area and dry. Forecasted deteriorating weather east later in the day”

Last night many readers got enthusiastic because lights were visible on the webcams provided by Mila. The scientists driving around had a good laugh. They fooled us. What was visible were only cars.

Such cars fooled us. Seen by daylight in front of the new fissure eruption. Credit Uni Iceland via Twitter.

Such cars fooled us. Seen by daylight in front of the new fissure eruption. Credit Uni Iceland via Twitter.

I am using 1 image ( screenshot)  which i did myself but since i have troubles accessing the cams, most images come from readers who uploaded their screenshots to tiny pic, i downloaded them and uploaded to VC. Please excuse if i did not mention your name. I am in from my holiday hotel with a very bad wlan connection and i am just writing a post instead of having fun on the beach. So the last post does not have over 1000 comments attached and starts being really slow. Nevertheless i suggest you go back and read the last post. You will need it to understand what is going on.

https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/a-look-at-the-overall-picture/

by DracoPhyrite

It would be wise to check out the youtube live stream instead of the cams. Youtube can handle huge loads, the Milacams can handle a lot but not what’s going on right now.

There is a storm over Iceland now. The remnants of Hurricane Cristobal, so fog and clouds will cover the eruption, most likely, but is still ongoing as this post goes in. And supposedly much stronger than the last event.

nve60z
Ursula summed important post up:
IMPORTANT INFO FOR NEW READERS:
Up in the menu https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/essential-info-for-new-readers/

Spica

Update: Carl:

A WARNING: I know a few wish to go there right now.
But, remember to stay on the where the wind is not blowing, this is a very gassy eruption high in SO2. Even one breath of the exhaust would kill you.

 

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1,628 thoughts on “2nd. fissure eruption started.

  1. Carl@Irpsit (other Dragons too) you were/are right in many ways…Í´m only seismoholic – but become a Volcanoholic too – after I red yours professional writing´ss – watching all day- and night long the links without a good sleep.I got somekind – like only feeling (not facta) that something are going wrong.. in Island – and in the world.. eventhough it´s monday – but I´m retired and Cafê&Gognac is now good – in this situation.
    “Something is going on” “”ABBA””
    Carl you are good conservationalist too.. : – )
    ..Try to get some sleep.. but if the 6M came while and the big Eruption.

  2. The fissure is erupting at Holuhraum, that we know. What about the new similar event NE of Askja. To me it seems that we maybe have soon 2nd fissure over there. Is there any activity at the Herdubreid volcano besides the earthquakes that intensify with each passing hour. Askja seems to be silent so far. The amount of events is overwhelming. This is quite rare event obviously.

    The area north of Vatnajökull is getting more and more intersting to observe.

    Link deleted.

      • As people have said this is unprecedented, it seems like everything in this area is related. What was the size mentioned for the mantle plume in the area of Kristfull 50 km? That must be capable of exerting a lot of pressure over a wide area.

  3. The eruption which started in Holuhraun lava field, north of Vatnajökull, yesterday morning, is subsiding quickly, ruv.is reports.

    The eruption may only last for another few days, according to volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson

    • Looking at the latest pic from Mila B-1 cam, it looks like someone just shut off the activity. Maybe it’s just a wind shift

        • Good question…but not for me. 🙂 I am surprised that this thing can be going as strong as it was over night to just slow so quickly. The internal mechanics that would have to occur to do that just amazes me. Just in awe of this whole event.

        • Not according to Pall Einarsson, Professor of Geophysics at the University of Iceland. He says there is far more magma going into the dyke than is being erupted at Holuhraun; the dykes volume is increasing, not decreasing.

  4. I was looking on Baering’s advanced visualisation (http://baering.github.io/earthquakes/) and noticed a small swarm of earthquakes in front of Eyjafjördur in the north, under the ocean, say between the village Siglufjörður and the island Grimsey. Is that out of the ordinary, or something completely usual? Complete n00b novice here, but very interested..

    DragonIllumination: Do not confuse novice with n00b! A novice knows little but is eager to learn whereas a n00b may know even less but thinks he/she knows it all. /Pyrite

  5. You observe an insect colony during one year. On average you have 150 dead every day. One day you have a jump in the graph and there were 200 dead. One day of 365. Are you shocked?
    Well at human scale we were just talking about an event killing 50’000 people at once.
    “Funny”, isn’t it?

    • I guess it depends on the insects. If they were stinkbugs, then I think going from 150 -> 200 -> 365 is moving in a positive direction. 🙂 a little [poor?] attempt at humor to lighten your mood.

      Not clear how you made the transition to killing people but doubt anyone here would think killing a single person is funny. My guess is most people here are just appreciating this event without considering the consequences of a human impact. So I’m content to sit back and enjoy it and the conversations/speculations about what could happen in that context…and learn a bit of volcano science at the same time from those experts who graciously share what they know.

      • We had a bumblebee nest/hive in a hole at the bottom of our rockery this year. For a few weeks it was great watching them – the strange thing was though, our garden did not seem to be on their regular shopping trips. They would fly elsewhere, and other bumblebees would come from elsewhere to our garden.

        Moral – bumblebees are thick.

        Unfortunately the nest was wiped out about 4 weeks ago – we had torrential rain and it flooded.

    • Are you talking about the potential problems caused by the SO2? (Also, wouldn’t high SO2 levels tend to indicate mantle-sourced magma?)…

      Somehow this made me think of the rhyme:
      Little Johnny was a chemist
      But Johnny is no more
      For what he thought was H2O
      Was really H2SO4
      (scared us into being careful in chem class 🙂 )

      • I remember chemistry at O and A level and how I regularly looked down at my hands becuase of a stinging sensation to see brow spots, where either HCl or H2SO4 had splattered. These days we’d be wearing gloves and goggles. H2SO4 also makes me think of oleum, even worse, but probably wouldn’t exist with lots of moisture (my memories of chemistry as as hazy as the current Barda 2 image).

    • You are welcome. I would actually like to point any new readers to this collection (see on the menu above) – it will hopefully make the discussions here easier to understand

  6. Lot’s of sulphur gas released in the eruption, ~20 000 tonnes/day (rough estimate). Scientists encouraged to wear gas masks #Bardarbunga

    • As I understand it, because the SO2 is denser than air, even a massive volume of SO2 gas erupted won’t cause severe weather impacts unless there is a Plinian type eruption to loft it into the upper atmosphere.
      Unfortunately, that concentration of SO2 in your image does pose a significant threat to people on the ground in Iceland in the red areas. Are they looking at evacuations?

        • Yes Sir, it most certainly does… It’s also the reason why the Icelandic Low tends to hang out in this area.

          For all.
          60°N is roughly the boundary between the Polar Cell and the Mid-Latitude Cell. The general circulation is for air to rise up toward the stratosphere, blooming North and South along the bottom of the tropopause. The trend at 30°N is downwards towards the surface. That’s the boundary of the Mid-Latitude Cell and the Tropical Cell. At the intertropical convergence zone, the trend it again upwards. Low pressure systems are caused by rising air.

          MY GUESS is that the method of SO2 and COS transport into the stratosphere in this model, is via diffusion across the tropopause. In that case, COS is more important since it has such a long “stay time” in the atmosphere. (I’ve seen statements of up to nine years). In the stratosphere, 200 and 270 nm UV light can dissociate COS and allow it to be turned into sulphate.

      • No-one lives within 10km radius of the eruption site so no, there won’t be any evacuations. Only those within that radius will need to wear gas masks – scientists and reporters.

        • I don’t think the reporters are constrained by the toxic gas issues. There are enough of them running around as it is. A culling of the herd may make their product take on a higher quality.

          Locally, there was a drowning out on the beach. Local news twits are hooping and a hollering about “dangerous surf conditions.” It’s almost as if they have discovered their own personal catastrophe to report on. Anytime there is an “onshore wind,” there are dangers of rip currents. It’s always been like that. Oh well, if some tourist happens to be watching the news hype, maybe it will save a life…

        • Ok I thought that cooling caused the pressure of magma to drop and gases to ex solve ,just the speculation of the uneducated ,thank you for the polite correction.Some our speculations and dumb theories must have the esteemed professionals such as yourself in fits of laughter;)

        • I’m not a “professional”, technically it gets into that whole partial pressure realm and can get really math intensive when you start throwing in the changes in solubility with respect to temperature. But as a rule of thumb, how I stated it typically applies.

          • One of the other main posters said yesterday that the magma was releasing 1000 tonnes per second and per cubic metre,I took on myself to say that was rubbish and probably 10000 tonnes was being released per day.It turns out I was wrong as the scientists estimate 20000 tonne per day.But I read if you have 1M3 of rhyolite at depth and contains just a few percent H2O ,when it nears the surface each side of that cube expands to 8.5 metres per side wow.

  7. I count 10, but that is since Aug 24th.

    2014-09-01 11:41:09.9 64.74 N 17.52 W 4 5.5 ICELAND

    2014-08-31 12:01:47.6 64.71 N 17.44 W 2 5.0 ICELAND

    2014-08-30 07:03:05.6 64.61 N 17.29 W 10 5.4 ICELAND

    2014-08-29 12:21:48.3 64.75 N 17.41 W 2 5.2 ICELAND

    2014-08-28 08:13:45.1 64.84 N 17.46 W 10 5.4 ICELAND

    2014-08-27 02:50:39.3 64.76 N 17.19 W 2 5.4 ICELAND
    2014-08-27 00:16:29.6 64.58 N 17.54 W 2 5.1 ICELAND

    2014-08-26 01:26:08.7 64.79 N 17.35 W 2 5.4 ICELAND

    2014-08-24 20:39:14.0 64.66 N 17.35 W 5 5.3 ICELAND
    2014-08-24 00:09:53.5 64.69 N 17.59 W 2 5.2 ICELAND

          • Those are the quakes in Bárðarbunga caldera according to IMO from 24th of august.
            2014-09-01 11:41:08 -17.452 64.677 5.3 6.8 qu
            2014-09-01 08:58:11 -17.538 64.661 5.0 8.6 qu
            2014-08-31 12:01:45 -17.415 64.675 5.1 5.2 qu
            2014-08-30 07:03:02 -17.457 64.611 5.4 2.9 qu
            2014-08-29 12:21:46 -17.43 64.683 5.2 9.2 qu
            2014-08-28 08:13:40 -17.387 64.666 5.0 3.0 qu
            2014-08-27 02:50:36 -17.373 64.653 5.2 6.2 qu
            2014-08-27 00:16:28 -17.475 64.623 5.4 6.4 qu
            2014-08-25 16:19:03 -17.472 64.612 5.1 2.0 qu
            2014-08-24 20:39:11 -17.36 64.627 5.3 2.9 qu
            2014-08-24 05:33:41 -17.45 64.616 5.1 6.0 qu
            2014-08-24 00:09:50 -17.52 64.657 5.3 5.3 qu

    • Only these 12 quakes cumulative seismic energy is near half of the intensity of an equivalent M6.3 (or a M6.1).

      But there are quakes missing from this list. And considering a lot of other minor earthquakes I would say that the total seismic release is probably equivalent perhaps to a M6.2 or even a M6.3.

      I wonder how much energy would trigger some hypothetical scenarios, like an explosive eruption, a caldera collapse, a new dike formation to the SW, etc…

        • I tend to doubt it would be a catastrophe here, not in the life-loss scenario at least. Bard is way too remote for a large eruption to cause THAT many problems.

          • I will take guess at the next stage,inflation of caldera will commence at some point with increasing hydrothermal activity causing glacier melt and eventual steam/ gas plume thru the glacier on the rim of the caldera,the caldera may subside at the rim but rise in the middle.Eventually the middle of the caldera will collapse and create the eruption crater.Disclaimer to the uninitiated these are ravings off a total amateur which the scientists among you will already realize ,but hey everybody else is guessing so I will too:)

    • Rifting yes, continues there.
      Dike I think it is a new one from Askja, but it could have some magma from Bardarbunga too. But definitively new one came from the Askja central volcano. If it continues, then we will see M4 to M5 also at Askja caldera.

      • I maintain that I don’t think the dike intrusion made it’s way through to Askja. Some thought it was just silent in that area between Askja and the tip of the swarm, but I think the eruption hit a road block and decided to go upward instead of outward. With that said, the tectonic forces pulling the area apart are still working, so that’s why I think we’re seeing the activity north of Askja even though the areas aren’t formally connected.

        • I’ve believed this for a while, glad I’m not alone! I reckoned the magma in fissures around Aska is old, cold and rock hard. Separate to the main feeder under the volcano. Now if it rifted through the hard rock into the feeder… hmmm!

        • I think the plates are spreading apart… magma is just moving in to fill the space. In short, I think it’s just being sucked in to the rift. That’s why Bardabunga is deflating, rather than inflating. Of course, it is still under pressure, (just less), so if a crack opens to the surface, it will erupt.
          I think we’re seeing the opening act to a large fissure eruption, but it could take years or decades to fully unfold. Of course, it could happen tomorrow, too. (It could even turn out to be a failed eruption, as fissures sometimes skip intervals.)

          • Yes. KarenZ’s plot from last night shows a colums of seismicity where that star is today. The Askja gap suggests to me that stress is not propagating from the Barda intrusion to Herdubreid. Rather, a larger scale plate-level stress is influencing both regions, Barda and Herdubreid.

            • I think Peter just nailed it. Ding 🙂

              Cbus: like you I don’t think that the dike continues past Askja, but its rather an illusion that the tectonic movements made a continuum of rifting along Holuhraun and then further NE of Askja. Magma just rose and filled the spaces, forming a third dike. Remember new dikes must form, without connection. That’s why I think the Kistufell dike died, the tension pulling was transferred to the the other dike further east.

            • Possibly Matt. That’s 1962 eruption site, so it must be ductile. So it doesn’t need quakes to crack. It just spreads easily like hot butter. Over Herdubreid it’s cold butter, so it breaks, and it quakes.

      • All that magma will have to get out at some point, anyone taking bets on where the next boom will be? I for some reason doubt it will be Herðubreið.

    • So far, none of the experts are saying that this is the case. They agree that the intrusion is still south of Askja. What is happening north-east of Askja is relatively normal for the area as you can see from this record of earthquakes from 1997:

      (Courtesy of Askja_Girl)

  8. Earthquakes have bottom out in past 12 hours and are steady if not rising. Now 1402/152/24 Total/2-3/3+ That is a bit higher than last night – not huge but also not dropping like it was the past 24hrs.

  9. GPS is interesting here. Clearly the eruption had some affect on the spreading, but I don’t think the long term trend is that the eruption is halting the rifting. There was a brief downtrend in spreading, but it’s more recently started to rift again. Interestingly, the rift rate increased at the onset of both eruptions, and then as the eruptions went on / abated, the rifting slowed down or reversed for a brief period before resuming business as usual.

    • The next thing I wonder about is if rifting goes on fast enough to open the gates of hell towards the mantle… Then, with a bit of decompression melting, we should be provided with plenty of magma to “catch up” with the expansion of the fissure…. Iiiiiiiiihaaaaa… 🙂

  10. @Andrew,
    I recently used the term “sociopath” to state it’s “impossible” to stay cool I front of such a quake, because it’s a sign of something happening I the fabulous context of Bardarbunga. Someone who is uninterested in front of that can’t be normal, would stay cool confronted to anything, so a bit of a sociopath.
    I didn’t intend to offend you with that, but it’s obvious that from the other’s perspective, if you don’t know each other and do it in the sens of “bantering”, it’s not acceptable.
    Your comment on the last page showed me that this was clearly not ok. You’re nothing like that, of course.
    So for that much too familiar way to chat with you back then, please accept my apology.

  11. Update my trip there: cancelled it, today because wind changed quickly and I was going to get downwind, which is not good and even dangerous. Weather also bad, and no visibility of lava fountains. So my plan is now maybe for Sprengisandur tomorrow, which is upwind, but 55km away, which is quite a lot, but possibility of hiking near Bardarbunga, in Tungnafellsjokull (yeah, a bit crazy possibility) to about 1000m to see the lava fountains ahead, if they remain and weather allows. Also must wait for swollen rivers to subside.

    So many challenges to get to see this one!
    Any advice from icelanders also interested?

    • Interested but no advice as of yet.

      Visual line from Tungnafellsjokull to eruption is at least 50 km.

      My estimate would be to wait until area might be opened for a bit of traffic but admit that can be a long wait.

      • Roads close within a week or so. So, then no chance of seeing the eruption. even from somewhat afar, unless with a superjeep, due to snow starting.

    • Not an Icelander but I walked with a friend from Nýidalur to Vonarskarð (and on to the Sth Coast via Langisjór/Fogrufjöll) last summer. The weather at Vonaskarð was how it’s been for the last couple of days: a wonderful place but very hostile, so if was you I’d take the longer route via the F910 north of Trölladygja, leaving my vehicle north of the junction with F26 and then cutting off the corner on foot.

      • I am driving from the south coast. So you suggest going to Nyidalur, and after that stop at the junctioon to the F910 north of Trolladyngja and hike there? can you see Holuhraun from there? I am sure I can’t drive that much in F910 because its a hell of a road. Otherwise I though of hiking Tungafellsjokull, to the top, not its ice cap, where you can see Holuhraun in the distance.

          • I don’t think walking is a good idea. It take 40km to just get to Trolladyngja where for sure I would see the eruption, but what from the Sprengisandur road itself. Do you think we could see the eruption site, possibly north of the F910 junction? Trouble is Trolladyngja sort of blocking the lower terrain of Holuhraun. How is the F910 until Trolladyngja (north part)?

            Or what about hiking up Tungnafellsjokull, not a difficult mountain, and from 1000m high we would surely see the eruption but 50km away.

        • Sorry, I misunderstood your post; I thought you were intending to walk closer to the eruption. (And I should have said *south* of Trolladyngja.) As someone else said, Tungnafellsjokull is still quite a long way from the eruption and you know Icelandic weather way better than I do. But even if you don’t get to see the eruption, the walk to Vonaskard is good and it’s posted most of the way – unlike after Vonaskard.

          • Walking to eruption not an option. Too far. Even to Trolladyngja is 40km that’s more than 1 day. Not allowed, and obviously even more dangerous than driving it. And too much.
            Driving to Trolladyngja could be an option because that’s a safe distance, although I dont know how the road is for a medium size jeep. I might get a friend with a press pass just in case I need to show the police (which cut trafic in that junction). That seems the easier way. Other option is driving to Karahnjukar in the east but also requires hiking a mountain to see the eruption from afar, and its a much longer drive from Reykjavik. Sprengisandur might be the best option. And for next days it stays upwind. But road is nearly closing down for the season, so time is running out.

            • I did a call. Rivers in Sprengisandur are currently deep. So difficult to cross them with a small jeep. Huts there did not know whether eruption was observable or not. Seems no one wants to see it, other than me, lol! But it is seemingly impossible to get close to it, unless I discover some sort of magical solution (super-jeep, permission to enter zone). So I will probably accept the fact that I am truly going to miss a close-up of this eruption.

  12. While we watch and wait.. And wait and watch…

    Along with some bits and parts from Monty Python (Ohai there Sperm-song!), this is one of my definite favourite video-segments of all time:

    The “escalation” thorughout those 59 seconds are just mind boggeling…. Its like going from a M4 to a M5 to a M6… And it just continues 😀

    Works best with volume a bit up, and a few beers in the good olè belly!

    *Hope the link works* (NSFW):

  13. There is definitely something dark in the clouds on the webcam that is pluming upwards through the atmosphere now. Not huge, but definitely not clouds — too dirty. Someone said that the lava flow may have contacted the nearby river? Can anyone confirm?

    • It may just be that now the sun has moved around behind the cloud you are seeing the imagining sensor compensate for the brighter light light behind. Also, rain clouds are pretty dark under similar lighting conditions so it doesn’t have to mean there is ash in this.

      • Oh yeah, those are rain clouds in the background – it’s been raining quite heavily there I’d say (experienced watcher of rain on screen for many years – it’s called waiting for the bloody cricket to begin!). I think too that dust is mixing with the steam cloud to give it that browny colour.

    • In this morning video, it doesn’t look like lava contacted water on the outside, Nor rivers. Only that it contains abundant water steam. That’s from the RUV video..

  14. “”These strong earthquakes are the consequence of magna streaming out of the chamber beneath the caldera”, says Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences. “The magma chamber is clearly subsiding, thus reacting to the considerable amount of magma that has been streaming out towards the dike intrusion,” says Einarsson. “Analysis of these earthquakes supports this conclusion, as well as nearby GPS measurements of land deformation. We call this pressure changes in the roof of the magma chamber; in effect, the top of the volcano is sinking ever so slightly.”

  15. Speaking of seeing things from space. I love this shot from the ISS of the Sarychev eruption. I am guessing this has been posted a few times before, but it is still an amazing view!

  16. Hi

    today’s update showing only the quakes since the 29th, up to today 16h46 IMO time

    Video to follow in an hour or so….

    • Good to see you dfm! I’m looking forward to the video. 🙂 Will try to squeeze in a couple of hours sleep first. It may be morning here but it’s way too early to be awake!

  17. Geo Lurking: can we have a slow caldera collapse without an eruption? What about a fast one?
    So far I only know of one documented and confirmed caldera collapse in Iceland, Askja in 1875.

    • I think yes. It may not fully be without eruption, but caldera collapse is not by definition fast. It could be peicemeal, where only one section at a time drops in. Whether it’s something energetic, really depends on how fast things progress (such as a piston type event), or if two incompatible items come into contact with each other… such as water and magma.

      • Depends on what it hits when it gets down there. If it’s magma, does the water flash to steam at a rate that can build up a sizable pressure pulse? Or will it just steam off with no pressure build up at all?

        IN MY OPINION, the Tongariro “hobit launch” event that threw debris and ash 6.5 km in altitude, was a phreatic event. Super heated water, well above the critical point managed to instantly drop below the supercritical point and went to a vapor state instantly. If the proposed caldera collapse in Iceland can not retain or bottle up that pressure, it will be a much lower energy pulse and could amount to just a bunch of steam billowing out of the caldera.

            • Ok that one LOL I was thinking of the 10000 to 9000 BC eruptions there which were VEI 5 .Yes there could be eruptions of that type around the more active parts of the caldera in the early stages of an eruption but the main event would be heftier than that.That thick ice sheet creates a big unknown that’s why a large ice age eruption at a volcano like Tongariro with a recent history of smaller eruptions could be valid?

            • Something of that size and the banter about degassing will take a desolate back seat to the conversation. Without a really accurate model of the geometry of the caldera floor and the magma chamber, as well as a really good estimate of the withdrawn magma, it’s pretty hard to call that one either way. I lean towards the non alarmist mindset until I see data that points at that. Either way, I am far less than qualified to even hazard a guess about what will happen.

  18. I’ve just caught up with today’s posts.

    I missed the conversation earlier about the gender of the various Icelandic volcanoes. As the consensus seems to be that Bardarbunga is female, I’ll offer up my 6 year old son’s mishearing of its name:- he keeps calling it Barbarabunga.

    In general, my sons are intrigued by the idea that the Icelandic volcanoes are determined to be either male or female. What predicts/dictates an individual volcano’s gender?

  19. This is a post without screenshot. Just before the sun is setting, a last time before we will all become crazy and post one screenshot (Mila1 of course) after the other. Hope you like it.

  20. Hello experts! Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us laymen. I’ve been following this eruption for a week now and have learned a lot more about Icelandic volcanoes. Studying the drum plots and tremor graphs is for a data nerd like me quite interesting – the best yet are those 3d-earthquake plots – and the live streams of course. Thanks to this blog we understand what’s going on on a more scientific deeper level. But I have a question for the seismic experts around here: What is causing those ticks in this drum plot: http://i60.tinypic.com/2ql9a9e.png Seen on a few stations farther north. Thank you for your kind advice.

  21. Hm, the Herðubreið/Herðubreiðartögl (sp?) swarm seems to be increasing in energy and moving closer to the surface – now several M2s just in the last hour at 2-3 km, and a M3+ earlier. Wonder if the general rifting going on could trigger something there as well in the next couple of days.

  22. Here is the video

    Bardarbunga earthquake animation 4D update 29 to 01-09-2014 16h46 (IMO time).

    All events are of magnitude over 1. I have added the presumed location of the erupting fissure. You will notice that there seems to be a “quake column” just near it.

    First view is from the north east (70°). It is an hour by hour change.

    Second view is from the top.

    Third view is an horizontal rotation with all the events.

    The title bar shows date and time of the events.

    The colorbar supplies date information (dot color, refer to left side) and terrain elevation (refer to right side).

    The size of the dots gives event magnitude information (refer to scale on the plot)

    Data is from IMO, with 99 % quality (manually checked).
    Terrain data comes from NOAA, etopo1 (ice)

    Made with Gnu Octave (Linux)

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