Amidst the truly spectacular images, the “eye candy”, currently reposted on our FaceBook account, on Twitter and on here by our readers, three possible scenarios emerge. Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences and the foremost Icelandic expert on subglacial eruptions outlines the three following scenarios:
1) The eruption at Holuhraun stops and with it the depletion of the magma reservoir of the Bardarbunga system also stops.
2) The eruption at Holuhraun continues as does the depletion with an accompanying subsidence at the Bardarbunga caldera. (As this goes on, the risk of possibility #3 increases, our note).
3) The deflation reaches a critical point where part of the roof of the Bardarbunga caldera collapses which allows water, liquid or in the form of ice, to interact directly with the magmatic main body. (This will lead to a series of very violent explosions which will only stop when either the body of water/ice or the body of magma are exhausted, our note).
“But the third scenario is that the subsidence in the floor of the caldera causes an eruption within Bardarbunga. Such an eruption could melt a large volume of glacial ice, and could end up as a powerful explosive eruption, with ashfall,” says Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson. “The meltwater would perhaps not be released immediately, due to the contour of the caldera, but eventually it would come out as a powerful flood. Obviously, we are worried about this possibility.”
In a series of interesting tweets, Gisli Olafsson, Emergency Response Director at NetHope, an organisation that “enables humanitarian organizations to better serve the developing world through smarter use of technology”, says that according to scientists, we have had seven eruptions so far. Three in Holuhraun, three under Dyngjujökull and one south of Bardarbunga.
According to Icelandic News Service RUV (the same story is also carried by the MBL, Morgunbladid), the director of the Civil Protection Agency in Iceland, Almannavarnír, Vidir Reynisson is “Gravely concerned” about Bardarbunga as the subsidence is thought to increase the likelihood of an eruption. From the Allmannavarnir’s perspective, the resulting glacial flood formed in such a scenario is the major concern as according to projections, it could reach Húsavik on the North coast of Iceland in as little as 5 to 6 hours.
If we assume that the glacier in the caldera is a perfect cylinder (it is not) 10 km in diameter, that’s approximately 63 cubic kilometres of ice which if all was melted at once (which it won’t), would result in approximately 57 cubic kilometres of water. That is a substantial amount of water which, if instantly released and evenly distributed, would cover England and Wales to a depth of about 0.45 metres or 18 inches! Note – this is a very rough estimate.
Very high concentrations of sulfur dioxide were measured at the eruption site today. Peak values were up to almost 2600 micrograms per cubic meter at Reyðarfjörður, which is by far the highest value ever recorded in Iceland. Consequently, a warning was issued for the town of Reyðarfjörður downwind, advising people to stay indoors as much as possible, especially children and the elderly. Healthy adults should not perform strenuous physical activities outdoors. The clouds of SO2 emitted by the Holohraun eruption may have been perceived by smell in Norway yesterday and have reached as far away as Northern Siberia at longitude 120 degrees East according to NASA surveillance. At times, local concentrations of SO2 are so high that they force an involuntary, temporary evacuation of the scientists from the base camp at Vadalda. Also, servicing involving refuelling (diesel) of our beloved “R2D2” Doppler radar seems to have been undertaken, much to the delight of our viewers who now report it happily blinking away in its lone vigil.
One aspect of the current unrest and ongoing eruption of the Bardarbunga system that is conspicuous by its absence is the implications of the current activity on the nearby Grímsvötn central volcano only 50 km to the south. This volcanic system had its latest eruption in 2011 and has since then re-inflated surprisingly rapidly. A possible previous interaction of the two systems resulted in the 1996 eruption of Gjálp, so the question is twofold. First, could the current activity at Bardarbunga have implications for Grímsvötn? Second, could activity at Grímsvötn have implications that would exacerbate the activity at Bardarbunga? At this point in time, such musings are purely hypothetical.
It is also with great pleasure we note that VC now has several members conversant in French. Bienvenu! La diversité est une très bonne chose – but please remember that the common language of this blog is English, even if the odd interchange in another language is tolerated! Finally, a request. Please try not to post animated gifs! They slow down the loading speed of VC for people accessing the site via pads or mobile connections are not really necessary. On Fridays, once the Sheepy Dalek has opened, they are welcome as Friday evenings is our Silly Hour. Thank you!
Henrik (a.k.a. Pyrite)
Only the IMO and the Allmannavarnir can issue volcanic warnings and only London VAAC can issue Flight Warnings.
We know a few wish to go there right now. But, remember to stay on the where the wind is not blowing, this is a very gassy eruption high in SO2. Even one breath of the exhaust could kill you, so please respect any and all warnings from the appropriate Icelandic authorities!
1,619 thoughts on “Bardarbunga Holuhraun Update 140910”
Of course, a midnight buffet of peaks and piffles.
Bring the main course please…
So how about a screen grab for the top of the new page 😉
BBC article about controlling lava flows:
They still haven’t corrected the spelling for Heimaey (not Haimey)… Sent them a message yesterday.
and a taste of Rosetta
ROSINA tastes the comet’s gases
Rosetta’s ROSINA instrument, the Rosetta Orbiter Sensor for Ion and Neutral Analysis, has detected its first cometary volatile molecules. The results were presented at the European Planetary Science Congress, EPSC, held in Portugal this week.
ROSINA’s reflectron time of flight mass spectrometer (RTOF).
ROSINA’s reflectron time of flight mass spectrometer (RTOF).
The detections were made early August when Rosetta was within 200 km of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and over 500 million kilometres from the Sun – the first time that a comet’s coma has been analysed in situ this far from the Sun.
Since then, ROSINA has been almost continuously measuring the density and the composition of the comet’s coma. It has already acquired more than 40,000 high- and low-resolution spectra with its two mass spectrometers (DFMS and RTOF).
Overall, the density of the coma is relatively low at this early stage, far from the Sun, but should increase as activity picks up, as the comet moves closer to the Sun over the next year. The density is seen to vary during the comet ‘day’, as it rotates over a 12.4 hour period.
As expected, the main species in the comet’s coma are found to be water, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide, which are being released from below the surface layer of the nucleus, which VIRTIS has shown to be dark, porous, and probably dry.
However, ROSINA has made the surprising observation that the ratio between these species varies quite significantly, depending on where in the coma Rosetta is. Sometimes carbon monoxide is almost as abundant as water; sometimes it’s only around 10%. In addition, ROSINA has not only detected these main species already, but many of the expected minor ones, such as ammonia, methane, and methanol.
As Rosetta gets closer to the comet and as comet activity increases, it will soon be possible to measure the ratio of hydrogen to deuterium – an isotope of hydrogen with an added neutron – in the cometary water. This ratio is constant in Earth’s ocean water and thus can be used as a way of tracing the still unknown origin of that water: for example, was it incorporated into the Earth at the time of formation, or was it delivered from space at some later date?
In particular, 67P/C-G is a Kuiper belt comet, and the hydrogen to deuterium ratio measured for its water will help constrain how much of Earth’s water could have come from a population of impacting Kuiper belt comets, soon after the birth of the Solar System.
Wow, that is fascinating! Thank you for this! 🙂
Thanks! Wish I had time to follow Astronomy too, my first scientific love.
Okay as it seems we are not going to get a good view today. It must be time for Mike Ross to get up and post some more lovely pictures after last nights taster of the view from the east. 🙂
How to Find Replies to Your Comments
Many times have we seen queries from beleaguered newbies asking: “how can I find replies to my comments?” The Catch22 in providing a simple reply to this query is that they are unable to find this reply and therefore unable to avail themselves of this assistance. Hopefully those who are still wondering will come across this Guide.
There are at least four ways of locating replies to your comments:
1. Conduct a laborious search through all comments until you find yours. This is time-consuming and tedious and I strongly recommend you avoid doing this for the sake of your sanity.
2. Before posting each comment, click the email button. Then, every time you receive a response to your comment, notification will be sent to your email account. However, if you acquire the VolcanoCafé addiction in a big way, you’ll be making multiple comments a day and your email inbox will be flooded with notifications.
3. Bookmark every comment you make by right clicking on the time stamp (located next to your user name at the top of your comment), then open it in a new tab and save it to a Bookmark file. Many commenters use this method.
4. Discover the joys of the replies-to-comments button – the easiest and most convenient method of all! Here’s your how-to guide, in four simple graphics. The indicators, frames and writing are all in sparklypinkbarbie colours because this is the colour scheme most favoured by the noble Dragons of VC.
DragonApproval: Superb guide as I am sure there are many who ask that very question! PS. When you post a topic like I do, every comment is treated as a personal reply, all 1,500+ of them… 🙂 / Pyrite
Just dashed back for a peak before visitors arrive.
Another way of finding replies would be to press ctrl/F together and open the find box then type in your name. If you post a lot it will take you though all your posts on that page in order.
Thank you for that one, Frances; I didn’t know about that one – good idea! 😀
Morning…. novice one here.. have you seen the Ask drum plots? They look rather active …..
Hi Fiona, I think it might be the weather – but I’ve asked for someone to clarify in post below 🙂
Yes, I’ve just been looking at them… gusting winds maybe? I’m just going to see if I can find out what the weather is like there at the moment.
Talla and Mopshell
Thank you both ☕ + 🍩 ‘s all round !!!
I’ve been peering at the weather maps… it appears to be very windy with scattered showers.
Doesn’t appear at all in firefox
For option 4, you need to be registered on WordPress, I think.
Yes, I think so – was just about to post that I have none of these options at the top of my page.
yes you need to be registered and logged in. But if you are VC is add free.
Hmmm! VC is ad free for me and I thought I was registered but I don’t get the toolbar on either of the computers I log in on (the pages look different on each one).
You just need to register with WordPress I think. 🙂
Excellent work dear Lady. Your attention to detail makes you indispensable on this blog (y)
Thank you, Alzé. I hope it can really help people. 🙂
I don’t have any of those buttons. Is it because I’m not registered in WordPress?
Are you using a feckbook or somesuch log in?
In which case log out; then go to WordPress.com and create a new account; email, password, confirm password etc.
Come to volcanocafe, make an comment n’ log in with yr new account…
Tick keep me logged in…
Job’s a good’n’
Fancy anafternoon in Brighton sometime soonish?
Thought you were Frances 😉
The offer of an afternoon in sunny Brighton is still valid of course!!!
Yes, that’s right. Just go to https://signup.wordpress.com/signup/ and sign up for a WordPress account. 🙂
I was wondering about “Hekla, the movie”. Usually when someone is crowdfunding, they have a stated goal and show the progress somewhere. I have seen the goal, but what about progress? I did chip in a few bucks and wonder if I am the only one 😉
Hi Sered, yes, there will be an update soon. You might even receive a treat in your inbox. We still have not reached our launch target, though we are certainly well on the way.
As for goals and targets, they were there in the “Hekla:the Movie” post I believe. The first target is approx $15K, which will enable production to start properly. Eggert has been up at the fissure for several days and is now recovering (exhaustion mainly) as well as processing the images/video files.
Thanks for the update, very interested in the results 🙂
I’ve asked which Address to use for Paypal. No answer so far. Would you know if it is the firstname.lastname@example.org address?
I used the paypal button here: http://www.noniab.se/investments/ This page was linked from the Hekla: the movie page, currently linked directly from the home page, top right on this blog.
Hi Tom, as Sered says, there is a paypal button here http://www.noniab.se/investments/ For some reason we couldn’t get the buttons coded onto the VC “Hekla: the Movie” page. I hope this helps. There’s a video clip going out to those who have donated very soon.
Very quiet – too quiet (cue spooky ‘something’s going to happen’ Exorcist music….)
Sorry, credit IMO for the graphic (reposted)
I think the “wholly blank” spots indicates periods where IMO has turned on “show only the manually verified quakes” (i.e. the 99%’s), which they seem to do from time to time. It usually lasts for an hour or so.
Laki produced an obscene and toxic amount of hydrogen fluoride gas.
How much are we getting this time?
apparently the only concern is for SO2 for the moment. I have seen no mention of HF
I wish there were some mention, to quantify it. Probably available somewhere…
It wasn’t so much HF gas which caused the problem, but fluoride minerals in the ash, which was ingested by livestock.
Sorry you must of replied at almost the same time☺
I seem to recall mention of 5 million tons of HF total emission from Laki, though fallout and ingestion of fluorides does seem to be the natural main concern…
OK, Wikipedia, “Laki”:
The outpouring of gases, including an estimated 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride and an estimated 120 million tons of sulfur dioxide…
An estimated 20–25% of the population died in the famine and fluoride poisoning after the fissure eruptions ceased. Around 80% of sheep, 50% of cattle and 50% of horses died because of dental and skeletal fluorosis from the 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride that were released.
Is not the main concern from flouride,fallout on grass and crops and rainwater contamination?not an expert ,just thought I read that somewhere.
Ding! And most human deaths were from starvation when their livestock died.
Yes some livestock died of that same thing after the relatively small 1995 Mt Ruapehu eruption in New Zealand from ash fallout on the grass.Livestock eat a lot of grass and if the grass is covered with a lot of contaminants toxic effects occur.People can wash any food gathered outside and refrain from drinking roof collected rainwater,which obviously would build up toxic concentrations easily?
The drumplots are quite fuzzy this morning. I believe this may be due to the weather – can anyone who knows for sure please confirm or deny this? Thank you 🙂
The “fuzzyness” has been there for quite a while I think, not sure what it indicates. I believe that since there has been no M2+ quakes since midnight, the scale of the DYN plot is adjusted to this max size. When/if a larger quake comes along, the “fuzzy” noise will be scaled down, and with a really big M5+ it will be scaled to nearly invisible.
Perhaps a Dragon can confirm or refute this assertion
Anybody with a knowledge of geology, volcanoes or plots can provide an answer. This is an open community…
That might explain the difference in magnitudes between ASK, DYN and VON.
Lets see if the “humming” is less visible after the recent M4+
It’s still there – but the weather often shows up on the monitors so I’m inclined to think it’s that until someone hands out a stone tablet.
Yes, I agree. From looking at the weather maps, I’d say it’s very windy up there today.
You can check wind speed and direction on the Icelandic road and coastal administration webpage. Looks like the wind is between 9m/s and 15m/s.
Click on map for detail, and same with monitoring stations for graphs of the past 48 hours.
Rescued by Spica
Doesn’t appear to be less visible on the IDYN drumplot.
You’re right, I wonder what this “humming”/”buzzing” is
I was told off a few pages ago for saying this,but I will be bold and say it again,this is potentially an unusual event do not expect to see classical patterns of activity on your beloved instruments they may betray you☺I am a moron so usual disclaimers apply and all rights reserved.
The ASK, VON and DYN graphs all appear to be showing what looks like harmonic tremor for about 4 hours now, but could just be high winds. DYN is only showing small spikes, and might be situated such that it is less susceptible to vibrations generated by the wind than the other two.
Possibly. I’ve written a python script that tries to parse the drumplot graphs, and it usually goes haywire a few hours after midnight each day as the plots resets and the scale auto-adjusts itself; i.e. it starts by reporting even the smallest tremors as big ones 🙂 After 4-5 hours (or the first big M3+) it settles down and behaves less excitedly 😉
The nearby weather stations are reporting high winds attm. 20+ m/s or ~50 mph.
You’re right – I think it must be the wind.
It’s friday time for real questions!
Am i the only one who reads Surtseyan as supersaiyan?
I don’t read it supersaiyan, but I know very well what a supersaiyan is.
As a consequence of your comment, I allow myself you might be of those who could appreciate this extract of moved pictures from youtube. It shows a geologist that is disappointed because he has lost his hammer, and helps himself with his fist to collect rock samples.
Allow myself to think…
hahaha :’) perfect.
Two things a geologist never loses: their rock hammer and their bottle opener!
(Been lurking for a while, but first comment. Really enjoy this site).
You can open a bottle with your rock hammer. Believe me. 🙂
Almost no idea of what they are XD
Super Saiyan (超サイヤ人) is an advanced transformation assumed by extraordinarily powerful members of the Saiyan race in the Dragon Ball franchise, as well as Akira Toriyama’s later manga Nekomajin and within the Dr. Slump film Hoyoyo!! Follow the Rescued Shark. Humans in Dragon Ball Online can also use the transformation.
The Super Saiyan form first premiered in August 1991, within chapter 317 of the Dragon Ball manga, entitled “Life or Death”. It also made its anime debut in 1991, first appearing in Dragon Ball Z episode 95, “Transformed at Last”. Within Dragon Ball Z, two further transformations, the second and third levels, succeed Super Saiyan, while the premier form also has three additional branch states, two that are ascensions and one that is a mastering of the basic Super Saiyan form. Dragon Ball GT introduced a fourth form, and there are three additional forms related to the Super Saiyan state that appear exclusively in the Dragon Ball Z films: False Super Saiyan, Legendary Super Saiyan, and Super Saiyan God.
Plot twist the dragons will cause the Surtseyan eruption, secretly they are saiyans disguised as dragons.
TY! it looks more complicated than i can bear, i don’t think i’ll look deeper into the matter XD
Looks like a big quake comes in.
You just beat me to it Lobota that looks at the very least a 5
Whoa! That’s a big’un alright! I’m with you, Frances, I think it must be an M5+
It’s almost as though Bardarbunga is saying “Hello, fissure eruption watchers…. main event….. over here…. gonna happen….maybe today….maybe tomorrow….maybe next year….only I know….”
I shall repeat a phrase i said many threads ago.”Bardarbunga is quite the magician,a master of misdirection he dazzles his audience with a display in his right hand ,while in his left hand hidden from view is his greatest trick that may truly amaze?
I’m going for 4.5 for that. The strain meter graphs on the Hekla page don’t go anywhere near as high as they do for the 5+ers…
Good call, Tony. 🙂
It doesn’t look that big on the other plots, perhaps the current scale gives the wrong impression.
Nevermind, I spoke too soon – it is indeed clearly visible also on far-away stations
Was a 4.7. I’m waiting the 5+ in about 3 hours from now on. But that’s only a hint, not so specialist, just waiting for the barda drum beat as look like in the last days
I’ll wait… as long as I can stay awake… 🙂
IMO have this so far but I rather think it’s going to be scaled up when they check it….
12.09.2014 _ _ 09:32:56 _ _ 64.676–17.448 _ _ 1.1 km _ _ 2.2 _ _ 90.13 _ _ 5.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga
Increased to a 4.7:
12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga
From IMO just now…
12.09.2014 09:32:56 64.677 -17.476 3.5 km 4.7 99.0 4.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga
Can we activate Wall-e and Eva from their lonely vigil to sweep up some of this dust?
Good thinking! 😀
Eva is already here 🙂 but not available to do any dusting unfortunately, as I am busy somewhere else. I will notify Wall-E though.
Thank you, Eva! 🙂
Long time lurker here, appreciate your fantastic job and learned a lot from here. One question comes to mind. If that caldera finally blows, will there be large earthquake accompanied with that. Something like M6+ or even M7 probably?
I think that size earthquake is very rare in Iceland, so no. M6’s and M7’s are usually tectonic rather than volcanic in origin (not an expert).
earthquake intensity depends on the length of the fracture. Lurking has a correlation (copper smith I think) that gives you that.
Normally, 5 something is the max you can get from a rock fracture event in a volcanic context. However this Iceland, and the volcanoes are large…..
Long time no visit……!!!
HEY i though so but was not sure!
Good to see you!
Yup! Spinosaurus is about……
You’ve seen your email?
Yes and answered and thanks for the food tip!
Friday is a time for tenuous teachings and a triple tipple, please do enjoy 😀
Brilliant! Thanks/Diolch yn fawr!
Mae croeso i chi! Lechyd da!
Ta, it’s Iechyd da [cheers, or good health], capital I not L though, good effort
Autocorrected, blame apple! 🙂
Think I need glasses 🙂 read your name wrong lmao croeso 🙂
Wwwps! Maen ddrwg gen i! Lle wyt ti?
Aberystwyth 🙂 ti / you?
Great! Years since I’ve seen Ifor. 🙂
A lovely Welsh guy I worked with many years ago on a project for Land Rover went by the nickname of “Derwydd bach” (little druid). In response he used to call me “Ceiliog” (which has nothing to do with cornflakes).
Doesn’t Ceillog mean rooster. Are you sure it is nothing to do with the rooster on Kellogs?
Very good, well Taffed.
He meant ‘cock’
If (or when) Bárðarbunga goes pop how far away would you be able to hear it? I guess it won’t be as loud as Krakatoa and that was audible in Perth (1900 odd miles) so would people in London (1100) be able to hear it?
I very much doubt it – people in London are deafened by traffic and the Heathrow flightpath! Eyeofskye might hear it if it was that big (which I sincerely hope it won’t be) as he lives on the Hebrides.
Mila 2 is shaking with the wind something fierce.
Awesome, I’d hate to think how many man hours went into making that happen 😀
So let me get this straight…. tomorrow at sunrise a ray will hit the building of the webcams, reflect on to the parabolas over the webcams. Which in turn sends a ray by reflecting it on the webcam lens on to bard which sets in the caldera collapse?
something along those lines?
There will be sharknados with laser beams on their friggin’ heads.
And finally someone got it!
Now let’s hurry up and buy water and noodles for the nuclear winter that is coming.
Winter is coming. I’m Jon Snow. I could fuck Ygritte but I prefer to hug Sam. Brooothers, we swore an oath, we made a vow.
Yeah and I’m an old bastard knight who’d like it so much to slide into the bed of that horny blonde dragon cutie.
Ha, I have no balls but will fuck you all.
Bullshit, the imp is the best.
Never, Arya will stick her needle right into your bloody hearts.
Oh come on, they are all annoying, let’s kill them all and start again.
I like the way the other dude writes his story…
What were we talking about? Ah yes, light reflected on the cams will trigger a VEI6 eruption in Bardarbunga. No doubt.
I have looked at the data again!
This solar high ain’t doing us no good!
Together with the 400ppm of CO2 it’s sure that it can only lead to the imminent end of life as we know it.
Winter is coming.
i love friday…. XD
You nailed it.
Once more, volcanocafé proves to be the crème fraiche of pure science when it comes to volcanology.
Our spiritual leader Randy Marsh would be extremely proud.
I am NOT going to post the ‘relief’ image after Randy Marsh managed to get connected to the internet again. No sir, definitely not. You all know which one. Just Google Image Search ‘Randy Marsh Internet’.
I hesitate to use my dragon powers to delete this comment. I’m shocked. How can you refer to something like that?
🙂 🙂 🙂
Everything in moderation, mighty dragon – everything in moderation. That was the message that Randy Marsh was striving to get across.
LOL 😀 Awesome visualization of this terrifying eventuality!
How many have you pair had?? Have you skipped the wine and gone straight for the absinthe and mushrooms? Pure skill though ha ha 😀
I think it might be those noodles GeoLoco mentioned.
Finally I understand, all these years of lurking has finally paid off
Jesus, I’m laughing a lot! I’ve got to get ready and go to pub- thank you for putting me in a good mood! Must get me some of them there noodles!!
Fixed that for you.
Thanks! found a summary!
Did anybody consider the possibility of webcam reflections triggering cellar eruptions beneath living rooms?
It’s so brilliant how you two united your skills to bring out this nearly perfect summary of that tremendous potential where we would have the final proof that light triggers volcanic eruptions, especially when coupled with sharknadoes.
The colors don’t only allow one to see the causality of things, but in the illustration of the eruption points at the fact that different fractions of the erupted materials might have divergent composition an temperature.
It’s also highly appreciated that the sun beams show their diffuse / scattered character, and that only the action of the camera lenses and / or a water surface can lead to that black swan event of a sunlight induced caldera collapse.
I love this place where you can let imagination run freely, GeoLoco, What about Brienne and the one-armed Golden son Jaime, he has improved in characteur since he got his arm chopped.
Indeed, he has improved. A lot. But still, geeez, let your hands off your sister bro…
Of course. Sorry. Thanks.
Like George, he’s gonna need it:
Seems that there too, winter’s coming…
Or maybe nothing’s coming…
And with dianyla, one more lady in the café I’d qualify “have to marry if you’re single and she’s ok with it”.
What i imagine it would look like on the webcam 8)
To my personal taste it lacks drama in terms of dimension. But that is said by someone who has seen the original of “Fist of the north star” in japanese with subtitles.
Well if we want to get published we should not dramatise it to much! Enough drama in the world already.
JJ Abrams would say it needs more lens flare. 😉
Ha, and Zack Snyder would give it more contrast… And add some half-naked body-builders in the front… 🙂
Fixed that for you.
Because the night is dark and full of terrors 🙂 R+A=J….just in my opinion 🙂
Dammit I don’t get it. Shame on me. Sorry. Gets me mad…
What the hell do R, A and J stand for?
Well, do you read the books? Or watch the series? Could spoil it for you…..of course pure speculation, with much to back up the claim.
I have seen the 4 seasons of the series, and tried to spoil myself by behalf of the internet and summaries of the books.
Watch it for the quotes and actors and blood and violence and all the nice landscapes and strong images.
Never have this feeling of having it spoiled because I know something that is to come.
But for others, let’s do it that way: tell me who is R for you. A and J should be “deductible”…
put that in the wrong spot….sorry….R=Rhaegar
Also, I typed that wrong above….It’s R+L=J
I’m familiar with R+L=J but no A.
I can’t believe I put A…..of course L!!!!
For a moment, I was becoming *very* confused.
Sorry…lol….it’s confusing enough with adding the wrong initial in there!
From “How do I read a seismogram?” by http://www.iris.ed:
This page has six brief animations which show the differences in seismic signatures of different events:
This is a brief animation which looks at volcano monitoring:
Thanks Mopshell! 🙂
You’re welcome. 🙂
Watch the rock breaking quake amination and take note perhaps?
Aaaah, very useful! TY! ^^
seismic signatures – from a paper from Mc Nutt
This may have been discussed earlier, sorry if it has been discussed many times already!
Looking at the IDYN drumplot there are lots of little vertical spikes, making the lines resemble barbed wire. Is this tremor, possibly caused by magma on the move or maybe running water?
sCyborg style tells me wind.
This question was indeed raised earlier today. It is not clear to me what to conclude from the discussion. Weather was suggested as a possible cause.
Thanks, should have thought of that!
notice the nice slick stream over the area.
This is amazing, what a good animation! Is it being kept up to date 24/7 ?
i think so otherwise i would say hourly.
Forecast data is from the NCEP GFS model, which has a 3-hourly step and has a new run every six hours.
Short drone video of the eruption taken 11.sept
Ah, this might be the place to ask, I was looking at the British Geological survey Helicorder page yesterday and I noticed an odd signal that appears on them ALL between 19.30 and 20.00 hours, Odd! Anyone who does understand the readings have an explanation of this? You have to change the date to the 11th to see it, http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/helicorder/heli.html
This place is full of experts *cough* you should receive an explanation very soon😃
Same signal trace, at same time on two broadband meters one in Iceland, one on the white cliffs of Dover? Closest event at NEAR that time has a 2 something in Navada, USA. Nothing on the europen system. What could it be? Suspect you will find a test signal sent to all the system meters to verify response to a synthetic quake.
Here is the contact: email@example.com
Tremor is way up at VON and ASK, less so at DYN. Is it possible all those little tick marks on the DYN drum plot are glacial ice moving on Bardarbunga’s northern flank?
This is discussed above. Possibly wind, but not sure about DYN – might be a bit faulty and the signal shows up differently (not expert).
Yes, I thought about that too and saw the discussion up thread, but wind still seems like an insufficient explanation for this. That said, I’m a novice watcher, so just trying to make sense of things in relation to other things I’ve seen to date.
Its wind if you ask me. The low freq tremor actually indicating ground tremor is in background levels and not spiking or anything.
Updated information from the IMO
12 September 2014 11:30 – from the Scientific Advisory Board
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present.
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. Lava flows at similar rates as yesterday. The lava is flowing towards East into Jökulsá á Fjöllum, slightly narrowing its path. No explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
Scientists flying over the Bárðarbunga area yesterday reported no new changes in the surface.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
Forecasts indicate that high concentrations of sulphuric gases may be expected in the northern part of the Eastern fjords, Fljótsdalur, Hérað, Jökuldalur, and Vopnafjörður. Forecast indicates that concentration may become highest in Hérað later today. High concentrations could occur in other areas as well. The Environment Agency will set up new monitoring stations in Akureyri and in South Iceland today. Geographical conditions must be considered when estimating air quality. People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close the windows and turn off air conditioning. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage loftgaedi.is. The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites.
Air quality at the eruption site:
Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably. Scientists in the field carry gas meters for their security.
Earthquake activity in the caldera of Bárðarbunga remains similar to that of the last days. Epicenters are distributed along the northern and south-eastern caldera fault. Earthquake activity at the dyke tip has decreased. More than 50 events have been detected since midnight. Low frequency tremor has decreased.
There are minor crustal movements around the dyke supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke slightly exceeds the flow of magma erupted to the surface.
Considering the time period since the beginning of the eruption slow movements towards the Bárðarbunga caldera indicate continuing subsidence of the caldera.
A new GPS station was installed on top of Bárðarbunga yesterday to monitor the subsidence of the caldera floor.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
** Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
** Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
** Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
What are these” other scenarios” ?What a puzzle😩
I think the IMO scientists have been a bit taken aback by a some of some of the recent scenarios uncovered on this very blog https://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/09/10/bardarbunga-holuhraun-update-140910/comment-page-6/#comment-153624
I’m sure they’ve got there best guys running the numbers as we speak, things could certainly be taking a very dramatic turn in the near future 😎
Your last sentence is so good. Mmmmmh.
Yes exactly,the last sentence seems very lucid?Do you know something pray tell?
It takes a big hook to catch a big fish 😀
well one unlikely option – fissure manages to break into new fissure swarm, magma flows along and reactivates an old pocket of melt from another source – things go a bit odd
“There are minor crustal movements around the dyke supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke slightly exceeds the flow of magma erupted to the surface.”
This is the sentence that got my attention.
About those spikes at DYN. It is a similar (if not the same) thing as was observed on the Lagu-Hvolar (HVO) station south of Katla. The station had some eletricity/circuit problems that were causing it. I am pretty sure the DYN is having the same problem. It did took quite a beating in the past few weeks.
And VON and ASK seem to have wind noise, not tremor.
How can you tell tremor from wind noise on the time scale that the drum plots provide?
If it is all blue it is most of the time caused by wind or human action.
Well first you check the weather conditions. That is obvious on its own. Then you can check the infrasound tremor plots, where the higher frequency tells the tale, and as for the drum plots, that’s a bit trickier, but it can be noticed if there is an initial break (for tremor), or a slower softer onset (wind), amplitude oscillations with smoother on/offset (wind) oscillations,… Tremor is also more “saw” like, while wind is more smooth, etc,… this is just some basic stuff from the head. I could be wrong tho.
Thanks for the pointers on what to look for.
Aha – If the subduction in the BB Caldera decreases or stops – we can rule out calderaeruption – at least for now?
Hm, and for how long should it stop moving until we decide that the whole system stabilized, and then again how long is “for now”?
Whoever now claims whatever as an answer to your question, I personally will not rule out anything if it’s not days or even weeks that confirm a trend.
Watch the trends?😉
Yes, watch the trends.
I summarize it up the quite rudimentary way. The MAR has got active (rifting) around Bardarbunga, and there’s even a chance for the caldera to collapse. All connected scenarii are possible. We’re on the way; everything can, nothing must happen. For the moment we carry on. Towards more in my opinion. As long as there is no new trend of calming down, what would need several days or weeks to be seen as such. A biggy like the MAR/Bardarbunga is like a big boat. It has inertia. A day is no trend. Might be a start of a trend, but is no trend. We won’t see a caldera eruption until tomorrow, and we won’t see it all of a sudden stop until sunday…
My preferred scenario is total havoc and new world order. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
If observers are assuming that “calming down” so to speak is not part of a process that does not end calmly ,that thinking could be flawed?☺
To do my avatar some honour, I want to point out that a slowing down of caldera subsidience merely means that something is blocked and stopping further collapse for now – followed by even larger earthquakes than we have seen so far and a sudden dramatic collapse followed by a major eruption.
Am I doing it right? 😉
There probably is no right or wrong, but your writing is pretty hot. At least much hotter than “oh I’m 22 and a rich prick makes me discover I have some interesting buttons” 50 shades of grey… Girls, if that impressed you, then you should really once try a swiss man doing you the Double Crème de la Gruyère Bündner Nusstorte Taillaule and Pizokel loop. After that go on and call yourselves women. 🙂
I like your advice. Would it be here that I make arrangements for the swiss man to do me the DCGBNTP loop? 🙂
When subsiding, Would the 600-850m thick ice cap on the caldera be able to produce the small and shallow tremors we see?
Been pondering all the information we have received from IMO. Going back to what they revealed about there being 7 very minor eruptions in and around Bard area, out with the fissure eruption. Could we not just be seeing a continuation of one of these smaller “hidden” events under the ice.. on the drum plots. They are obviously small enough in nature and will have a signal despite no immediate visual sign of activity.
Or maybe I think too much and am needing to cork my Friday wine and chill out !!!
Sorry… meant to say that this is relevant to various drum plot anomalies we are seeing not just todays which is weather related…..
Nice image, taken how?
(oggesu’, perchè obsoleta? °_°)
taken here https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/
There is an update on Jonfr.com
Just one question!
Looking at webcam on youtube, of Bárðarbunga (mila-cam 2) and everything is shakeing (Sorry, my english not very good) – is it earthquakes or wind?
Wind….very windy day for Iceland today 🙂
Also, the Mila #2 cam is zoomed in at maximum (probably) so even the smallest movement make a huge shake
That nice plume picture got me thinking about SO2 again, so I did a quick “physicists estimate” of where we are with emissions:
wind speeds are around 10 m/sec, and the plume is about 5 km tall (there was data on that the other day).
Looking at it, it is quite narrow, so in round numbers we can call it 20 km wide and 100 km long.
Then the flow rate in the plume is just 10*5,000*20,000 = 10^9 m^3/sec
If we estimate SO2 concentrations as about 100 μg/m^3 we get an SO2 flow rate of 10^5 gm/sec.
Or about 10^10 gm/day == 10,000 tons/day of SO2
Consistent with the estimate from the early days of the eruption, consistent with plume concentrations measured on the east coast (allowing for local geography and heterogenous plumes) and implying
3-4 Megatons SO2 per year.
To be comparable to Laki the eruption would need to be 10-30 times more intense, on average, and a bit more gas rich.
‘course it is early days yet.
It is going to get interesting once it gets cold and we don’t have rain efficiently washing the SO2 out of the troposphere – if we’re still erupting by Nov or Dec at this level, the SO2 bands are going to be wrapping around the 45-70 degree north latitude bands and starting to build in concentrations.
If the eruption is still going by spring, then it might impact climate on continental or hemispheric scales; it would then certainly impact vegetation health in northern Europe in the spring.
more extended view of plume
Just a quick thought on this:
This is model data only. The initial data is based on real-time observation, but forecasts are modelled. The data comes from the NCEP GFS model. It has a 3-hour step, and a new run every six hours. Now the thing about models, is that they sometimes have a funny impression how the terrain looks like, which limits their accuracy among other things. That depends on the horizontal and also vertical resolution of the model. The higher the resolution, the better impression the model has about the terrain. GFS has a 0.5 degree grid spacing. That is not particularly good for local forecasts. But in this case, it is well enough to get the general idea of the wind, and more appropriate for larger scales.
So for fun, I have plotted how the GFS model sees the terrain in Iceland, from its binary data files. Lets just say that it pretty much sees it as one big stratovolcano. 😀 The highest peak is Grimsvotn in Vatnajökull at 1680m. And that is pretty much what a model with this resolution is capable to determine in this scale. 🙂
This is the actual terrain as the model sees it.
And here I manually added the actual coastlines, for comparison.
Fun stuff, I tell you. 🙂
Nice maps! it’s all about resolution time for them to switch to 4k :p
hehe well, could be, but the model resolution is something different than photo/video resolution. 😀
p.s.: GFS is a proof that Grimsvotn is the main central volcano of Iceland. 😀 😀 😀
nice maps indeed. Are you using GMT ?
Panoply and experimenting with Grads 🙂
any link ? to get a peek
Howdy all –
Appears we got a pair of monitoring stations installed on Cleveland this summer. Article in the local fish wrapper follows. Link to AVO Cleveland page after that. Activity is currently at the Yellow level. Cheers –
these last 3 little EQ 1.7/1.7/1.8 on caldera BB bother me…. between 0.1 and 1.2 km depth… n the further quiet surroundings …. is the ice breaking there a bit?
Is it wrong to be thinking that things might be calming down around Bardarbunga and surrounding areas?
Is This Grimsvotn chart still accurate?
Sorry this is the chart link
The chart is pretty much accurate, it just doesnt contain the area where most of the swarms were. Once the Grimsvotns magma chamber reaches the critical point of volume and the stress starts building up, you will see how accurate it is 😉
I think it has a long way to go and has gone up a tad since I last looked at it a few weeks ago. An eruption, we still have years despite all the activity at Bardarbunga.
Just one point,and its called ” the tipping point”get my point?
You get a point for a good point.
this seems pointless..
Well, a long way yes, but not really THAT long. 🙂 It has a nice steady inflation rate, tho to my untrained eye it seems every eruption requires a bit larger inflation. Once it will reach enough inflation and enough stress builds, the swarming will begin and good old Grimsvotn will slowly reach its next eruption. In theory at least. 🙂
As master of the Order of the Orange Overalls, who has just escaped the maze of the dark mines of the Sheepy Dalek’s lair, could some kind Dragon please advise this old Mind Bender as to which is the best/better web cam/s for Holuhraun and it’s surroundings?
I’ve piles of catching-up and this would just be a teensy-weensy bit of ‘elp!!
This Dragon is more than happy to oblige 🙂
Bardarbuga 1 or 2 … both are excellent if the air is clear!
Who’s that there? Is it who I think it might be? 🙂
Ar ee a zider drinka?
Ow be ee getting on!!
Appn I be wun ov they mun raakers, how’m ee gittin orn m’ gal; hint bin ’bout fer woile, got wun ‘ell v load r stuff t’ rid thro’!
Ad lots a trubl this larst umpteen munts, laptops goin caput, lost all me links to everythin, all me email addresses cos sum b&^%$£ hacked me!
Jus bin digging tatters – r sum v em!!
OOOOoooarrrrrr! I thot it was eee! Y’um bin mist ‘roun ‘ere sumat chronic. I reckon Diana n’ Frances’ll be ‘appy t’ see eee too!
I’d better speak proper or the poor people relying on Google Translate will be ill! There’s thousands of pages to read – basically a grabboid or baby dragon has woken up and is growling about underground and we’re watching it. There – saved your eyes thousands of hours of strain. I’m off home now (I’m at work) and I’ll see ‘ee in an hour for a pint at the Sheepy Dalek Bar!
That Barry Obarmer wus down ‘ere las week at t’ ‘enge – ‘e didn’ now wot t’ mak of it either. ‘E ‘ad a bludy big plane t’ ride about in tho!
If you 1,2,n are down by t’enge you’re on the next side round of the big blank area I mentioned a few days ago as somewhere to put a small volcano. Down here in Wiltshire we need something exciting that doesn’t charge arms and legs for admission. Could you write to the council and suggest putting the caldera in Imber like I did? If it’s clear later I might have to head down your way to get somewhere dark to look for the aurora.
Frances, definitely be ‘appy t’ see eee’, welcome back an’ keep up the zider drinkin’.
Sorry to hear ’bout the computer. I bet eee were ‘acked orf a bit. I wudda bin.
I ee tellz council tha’, they’ll be finding way t’ charge.
Oh man, that’s so nice.
Sorry I never answered your last email. Gave it a start once, but was in a mood that gave it kind of a senseless weight.
Master of the orange overalls, it’s a pleasure to read you.
And that master has a very oily greasy orange overall lately 😉
Ohh! I remember the orange overalls well! Didn’t we at one point suggest a VC calendar with the orange overalls as Mr December or was it Mr September? 😀 😀
Pardon me if I got this totally wrong……..
yup, remembered. Still diggin’ ? Welcome back
Wahey – great to see you 🙂
Mila 2 is not worth the effort…
Tis nowt but the wind 🙂
Just managed to get some time before evening meal preps. Evening all and a very happy weekend to all. See you all in the bar later 🙂
Good evening. 🙂
… simply beautiful 🙂 ..
Sorry, couldn’t resist 🙂
Sorry dragons, but can you please fix my link?
LibrariDragon edit: fixed 🙂