Thousands of volcanic experts & enthusiastic amateurs follow volcanos, one of the fundamental questions in modern volcanology is the manner in which a volcanic eruption is triggered; via the intrusion of fresh magma into a reservoir, the amount by which previously pooled reservoir magma interacts with a newly intruded magma will determine the nature and rate of eruption, as well as the chemistry of erupted and ground deformation to changes in volume of a magma reservoir.
Quake frequency evolves as a volcano develops from a state of dormancy through unrest into a state of explosive activity. Seismic activity originates mainly from mass movements inside the structure, such as magma intrusion and gas release, which produces stress variations and ground deformations. There is thus a relationship between seismic energy release, deformation, and volume change (McGarr, 1976; Yokoyama, 1988).
Analysis of the Seismic Activity Associated with the 2010 Eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java by A Budi-Santoso – 2013
The accelerating seismic activity is also related to the accelerating deformation of part of the summit and both phenomena can be considered as precursory signs of a large explosive eruption.
The main types of signal are volcano/tectonic (VT), multiphase (MP), low-frequency (LF), rockfall (RF), and tremor.
DeepThought’s ” Volcanic Earthquake & Eruption Predictor* “ * Predictions may become reality
Download the xlsx worksheet or Download the xls worksheet to fully understand this interactive VolcanoCafe article.
Be able make your own predictions for this unique event at Bárðarbunga, plus other volcanic events.
Using IMO Earthquake data since 18 August 2014, http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
Go to the Energy sheet & paste special option “values” in cell Q4, todays EQ (delete any excess entry’s from yesterdays)
First up we convert the daily Earthquake work done to KKI TNT equivalent,
look at TNT equivalent scale to the right, and transpose correct TNT value into column P for each EQ
Kelly Kiloton Index of Earthquake Moment Magnitudes http://www.english.ucla.edu/all-faculty/335-kelly-kiloton-index-of-earthquake-moment-magnitudes
The Kelly Kiloton Index (KKI), aims at giving a “realistic” picture of earthquake energy. It uses the kiloton (= 1000 metric tons = 2,200,000 lbs) as the basic unit. Based on the seismic “moment of force,” translated to the equivalent energy released by an explosion of TNT, every positional increase, goes up by a factor 32. Thus, R 2.0 corresponds to the detonation of 1 ton of TNT, R 3.0 = 32t, R 4.0 = 1000t, R 5.0 = 32,000t, 6.0 = 1,000,000t,
Now for some eye candy
50 tons of TNT
Operation Blowdown was a joint UK-US-Australian operation at Iron Range in northern Queensland, Australia 18/07/1963. The test was conducted to simulate the effects of a small nuclear detonation over a rain forest. It involved the detonation of 50 tons of TNT atop a 43 meter tower. The explosion turned the surrounding forest into a twisted knot making troop movements almost impossible.
500 tons of TNT
Operation Sailorhat was a series of three 500-ton conventional explosive shots in near Hawaii 06/02/1965 designed to test the blast resistance of Navy ships in the advent of a tactical nuclear strike. Each “Sailor Hat” test consisted of a dome stacked 500-ton (450 t) charge of TNT high explosive detonated on the shore of Kahoʻolawe close to the ships under test and each test saw the USS Atlanta move closer to the explosion.
So far at Bárðarbunga 4,118,105 tons of TNT equivalent energy has been released underground !!!
5,000,000 tons of TNT underground thermonuclear test
Cannikin was detonated at a depth of 1,800 m underground on November 6, Amchitka island, Alaska, 1971. The announced yield was 5 megatons (21 PJ) — the largest underground nuclear test in US history. The ground lifted 20 feet (6 m), caused by an explosive force almost 385 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Subsidence and faulting at the site created a new lake, over a mile wide. The explosion caused a seismic shock of 7.0 on the Richter scale, causing rockfalls and turf slides of a total of 35,000 square feet (3,300 m2). 38 hours after the explosion a 1 1/2 mile wide by 60 foot deep subsidence crater formed as the volume of material above the cavity (the chimney) collapsed into the void
OK……… back to the the Energy xls sheet a M7.0 = 32,000,000 of TNT on the KKI scale for EQ work done
Transfer cell P52 value to column C at todays date (5/10/2014)
Transfer Total # Quakes to column E at todays date (5/10/2014) Note *current chart lists the # of all EQ >M 0.2 at BB
Transfer cell L105 value to column K at todays date (5/10/2014)
We’re all done ….scroll up back to row 1
This chart shows the daily TNT Equivalent Earthquake energy release at Bárðarbunga (5/10/2014 is your data inputs),
Discussion: note the # 5% or 200,000 Tons days, so this could be taken as a average “maximum daily release”,
the “middle daily release” seems to be merging with the “minimum daily release”, also the expended energy level has been rising for the last 5 days.
We keep an eye on all this & use some analytical grey matter, question, is released energy rising or falling?,
This next chart shows the daily TNT Equivalent Earthquake “forecast & remaining/unleashed pent up energy” at Bárðarbunga (5/10/2014 & 6/10/2014 is your data inputs),
The blue–red bar is the next days forecast EQ energy to expend, which is derived from yesterdays forecast (blue–red bar), less EQ that happened yesterday to 0.00hr – 24.00hr (green bars in the first chart), plus todays anticipated energy release. (the white line)
So while both bars are above “zero value” there is “X energy” still to be released…. i.e. more or BIG or Lots of quakes to come.
[A] Think of a bucket on the end of long stick, hose water goes in & you have to bail it out with a cup, bail it out too slow an the stick bends(tension), bail faster to reduce tension (small quakes), or fall behind & the extra waters weight eventually breaks the stick (a BIG quake) &”an equilibrium state” now exists ……… go back to [A]
So……….WTF…… yet another uncomprehendable even weirder formula, some mathematician probably spent days on & got quite tumescent over.
?????……….. OK…..lets just grab a drink of your favourite poison & mull this over & use some more analytical grey matter, magically out spits quite a number of answers / conclusions which we auto arrange into improbable and likely scenarios
The models concept is to have a # Quakes & achieve a “zero value” on the brown-yellow bar i.e. “an equilibrium state”. at the end of each day.
So we adjust the white line forward “expected EQ energy release” in the Energy sheet column M to have almost no negative values ….OK we underestimated in late August as Bárðarbunga had a “hole lot’a a shak’in go’in on”.
Discussion: note the 250,000+ Tons days, so this could be taken as a average “maximum daily forecast release”, before BIG or Lots of quakes happen en mass and not the end of day brown-yellow bar falls close to a near or zero “an equilibrium state”, on the 15,16,21,22,29,30 so this infers/means the white line forward “expected EQ energy release” is set about right for now.
If the projected “unreleased energy” reaches close to 375,000+ TNT and EQ are still happening but at a reduced rate we would go back to say the 1/10/2014 and adjust the white line value down for each day, to have on the next biggest EQ day achieve a close to “zero value” on the brown-yellow bar i.e. “an equilibrium state”. Theres a few more self explanatory graphs within the ” Volcanic Earthquake & Eruption Predictor”
Use all info & data you obtain from everywhere, use some more analytical grey matter, it matters not if your out, nobody gonna die, or be evacuated,
but if you get it right ………… you’ll be “the one” of the few who has predicted Earthquakes………….