Kelud and the Global Weather

The first image out of the crater of Kelud. Photograph by Suwarno.

The first image out of the crater of Kelud. Photograph by Suwarno.

Hello and welcome to this double-article, in it you will get two different takes on the question if Kelud really will affect the global climate by two different writers. So, let us see if we get two different answers shall we? First part is by me, and the second part is by GeoLurking.

After the fast and brutal eruption of Kelud there has been a lot of humdinging in the media about the effect on the global climate. According to some of them it seems like we are in for a new ice-age. But what is the truth?

Recapitulation of Kelud

The eruption of Kelud was one of those rare ones that Volcanic Explosivity Index –scale is perfect for. The VEI is intended to use on this kind of short and brutally explosive type of eruptions. It might also be the fastest ever eruption to yield numbers and data that we could compare to other eruptions.

Within a day we knew not only that it was a VEI-4 eruption, we also knew that it was the second largest this millennium with an erupted volume of 0.3 cubic kilometers of Dense Rock Equivalent, we knew that the ash-column reached 28.2 kilometers height and all this lovely fast data seems to have given both the Tinfoiling doomsayers and the media cramps in their abysmal tracts.

Ash as a weather altering factor

First we need to understand which volcanic factors might affect the global climate. Please remember that these interact in several ways that is not fully understood, but do not make the mistake and think that we can’t make good assumptions on what will happen to the world temperature.

First factor is the ash itself since it acts as a mirror reflecting the sun’s rays away from the earth’s atmosphere. It is affected by various factors. Among them is how coarse the ash is, the finer the ash, the longer it will float in the atmosphere. The other is ash-column height, the higher the ash gets the longer it will float. We also know that if the ash is ejected out of the troposphere into the stratosphere it will hang for a longer time. Since the stratospherial boundary is at roughly 17 kilometers height at the Philippines we know that this happened.

Now, something to remember is that the amount of ash decreases exponentially over time. This effectively means that if the amount of ash 24 hours after the eruptions end is X it will be 0.25X another 24 hours later.

So, we know that the ash from Kelud would lower global temperature. The question is just how much and for how long? We will get back to that and get a surprising answer.

Volcanic gasses

Aerosol index from Pinatubo. Wikimedia.

Aerosol index from Pinatubo. Wikimedia.

We know that gasses can affect the global climate. And volcanoes emit a lot of gasses as they erupt. Basically we can divide these up into 3 different groups. The first and most abundant gas from an explosive eruption is water. A volcanic eruption produces voluminous amounts of water vapor and these form clouds, and clouds shield the surface against heat so they should really lower the temperature on earth. Problem is that even a very large volcano produces small amounts of water vapor compared to what the planet produces on a daily basis. And it also has a tendency to drop down rapidly in the form of rain, normally within hours of getting cooled down into water droplets.

Next gas is Ye Olde CO2. Now most of you are going: “Wait a minute, that is a greenhouse-gas and should increase global temperature?” Well, you are right. And too really drive home this point. Volcanoes are by far the largest source of CO2.

Now we get to the sulphates and sulphuric gasses. These are actually good at shielding the planet from the sun’s rays. They have about the same half-life in the atmosphere as CO2 and here you should find the best source for global volcanic cooling. Unlike the ash it will actually stay floating in the stratosphere for quite some time.

Other large eruptions

The ash cloud from the eruption before the VEI-6 phase started. Wikimedia commons.

The ash cloud from the eruption before the VEI-6 phase started. Wikimedia commons.

We have two good examples to compare Kelud to. One is the 2011 eruption of Grimsvötn since it so far is the largest eruption during this millennium.

First of all Grimsvötns eruption column was lower than Keluds. But it still managed to punch through the stratosphere boundary that is considerably lower over Iceland. Grimsvötn erupted 0.5 cubic kilometers of DRE and a likely 1 cubic kilometer of sub-aquatic lava into the ice-covered glacial lake. Grimsvötn is also famously gassy. It has less magmatic water content, but punches a much higher sulphuric gas content than Kelud.

Now, let us go to the largest eruption in the last 102 years, the Colossal VEI-6 eruption of Pinatubo. At 10 cubic kilometers of DRE and 36 kilometers high ash column together with the 17 million tons of SO2 it caused a known climatic effect that we can compare with.

Immediately after the eruption 10 percent of the suns radiation was reflected away from the surface of the planet. This in turn caused a global lowering of the temperature with 0.4 degrees Celsius. As such Pinatubo is the only volcanic eruption that we have as accurate data from in regards of climatic effects.


The eruption cloud of Pinatubo photographed from the STS-43 shuttle mission. Image by NASA.

The eruption cloud of Pinatubo photographed from the STS-43 shuttle mission. Image by NASA.

Before we start any final summary we need to know that the larger VEI-4 that Grimsvötn suffered in 2011 did not affect the weather at all. You should also know that it ejected 5 to 15 times as much sulphuric agents as Kelud. This should really end any discussion, but people are often more stubborn than that. So let us put Keluds effect against Pinatubo…

Pinatubo ejected roughly 30 times as much ash into the atmosphere as Kelud, and to make it even worse it ejected the ash 28 percent higher up into the stratosphere. It also ejected 30 times as much sulphuric compounds to a 28 percent higher altitude.

In short, the effect of Pinatubo was between 30 and 100 times larger than from Kelud.

This leaves us with two answers, in a way Kelud has no climatic effect at all for either you or the researchers. But from a scientific standpoint it probably had an effect, but it will be so small that it is not even measurable. At worst we are looking at a lowered temperature of 0.013C to 0.004C, you are welcome to try to measure that.


Fuzzy Dice – Wikimedia Commons.
“As I have said so many times, God doesn’t play dice with the world.” — Einstein.

As some of you know, I am a fan of Nicholas Taleb. He is the author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” (2007). Mostly in jest, I have occasionally kicked around the idea of a ‘Black Swan Volcano,’ mainly from the point of view that in order to really ruin your day (on a humanity scale), it’s going to take more than a simple decline in solar activity to mess things up. All of the previous wild excursions in temperature, though they generally coincide with low solar activity, are punctuated by some sort of volcanic activity. The current decline in solar activity has been called out as very similar to the start of the Dalton minima and naturally, those that tend to do so, have been off beating on that drum. One can only guess at the level of noise that we would get if it were a Maunder Minimum scale event. Some solar physicists, such as Dr. Leif Svalgaard, think that the tally of sunspot activity is flawed and that the levels that denote “Grand Minima” or “Grand Maxima” are a bit skewed due to the criteria and methods that the official observers used when making the tallies. Even I.G. Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland) has joined in on Dr. Svalgaard’s working groups that are trying to resolve those inaccuracies in order to get a research quality count. Usoskin is the primary author of “Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: New observational constraints” Usoskin et al (2007)

Okay, that’s a bit of background. You will likely get into a heated argument should you adopt the Grand Minima banner and start waving it about in peoples faces.

So, onward to that pet idea I’ve been kicking around. Unfortunate Coincidental Volcanoes popping up as ruiniers to an ordinarily pleasant climate. By Taleb’s definition of BlackSwans, you don’t see it coming. It’s buried in the statistical improbability and even if some wild arsed loon saw it coming, no one would believe them. The Stats would indicate otherwise.

Recently, Kelud exploded, and did so in style. My initial interpretation of the VAAC reports were that it didn’t make it to the tropopause. It’s a safe assumption on my part since VAAC’s are mainly interested in keeping aircraft away from the plumes. They would most likely tend to over alert. It wasn’t until a couple of days later that someone posted a satellite view of the plume along with a LIDAR trace that showed that Kelud had easily made it to the stratosphere… that LIDAR trace even seemed to show that part of it reached as high as 26 to 28 km.

No matter how you look at it, that is way up there. Okay, so maybe Kelud is in the running for the mythical Black Swan status. It really depends on how much SO2 was lofted. I don’t have a really good way to estimate that, but I can show you a few other volcanoes and let you determine what could be coming done the pike.

Nasa keeps track of the stratospheric aerosol layer for their climate models. (the veracity of those models is left up to the reader). You can find ascii text data for the volcanic forcing of those models here. Taking that, and an output of VEI 4+ eruptions, you can get a view of some of the culprits.

As you can see, the monster eruptions tend to have the most effect. But, notice how puny Novarupta is compared to Pinatubo and Krakatau. This is going to be due to where it erupted and what it erupted. At a higher latitude, Novarupta had easier access to the stratosphere, and all tropical systems tend to have a higher level of water vapor entrained into the column. (causes early leaching of SO2) This should work to Novarupta’s advantage. Yet it didn’t. Sulfur is the 16th most abundant element in Earth’s crust, being more prevalent than Chlorine (usually found in salt NaCl). As far as I know, how much sulfur was in Kelud’s column has yet to be published. But sulfur collecting is a pretty common way to augment income in some locales.



This week there are 3 volcanoes hiding among the riddly brainwrecks, plus 1 volcanologist and 1 volcanologic word.riddleimage2

  1. Half of Fritz and Image – Tuff (Kelda, 2pt). Robert Downey Jr (on the image) stared in the movie Tuff Turf that was directed by Fritz Kiersch.
  2. Diplomatically acting a war among the stars – Sir William Hamilton (Kelda, 2pt) Hamilton was the name of an actor in the original Star Wars movie. Sir William made the first comprehensive list of Vesuvius eruptions.
  3. Chained dragon and tyrant on white giant – Damavand (Dinojura44, 2pt). According to a Persian epic poem both a dragon and a tyrant have been chained inside a cave in the mountain, it is known in persion also as the White Mountain due to it always being snow-covered.
  4. Depressed flaming mountain with young husband – Turpan or Turfan in China (Evan Chugg, 2pt) It sits in a depression and is known as the flaming mountain. The explorer Francis Younghusband visited the nearby city.
  5. Sulphurious ohridian dwarf volcano – Duvalo in Macedonia (Alison, 2pt). At half a meter wide and 0.3 meters deep it is the worlds smallest known volcanic edifice.
Score board
18 Sissel
10 Cryphia
8 Evan Chugg
7 Dorkviking
4 Dinojura44
4 Edward
4 Kelda
4 Pyter
3 Matt
2 Inannamoon
2 Lughduniense
2 Lurking
2 Spica
2 UKViggen
1 Bobbi
1 KarenZ
1 Sa’Ke

207 thoughts on “Kelud and the Global Weather

  1. Islander and Carl: the smell I was refering to, the other day was felt near Þorlákshöfn. I am almost sure it was not from either Hellisheidi or Hveragerdi. Probably it came from the region near Brennisteinsalda, where there was a swarm in this last couple of days (not confuse with another swarm at Hellisheidi).

    Actually that region belongs to the southern end of the fissure swarm of Hengill. An eruption there would only be bad for Þorlákshöfn, nothing more than that.

    On Russia: the best seems to be dividing the country in two parts, one pro-Russian, another pro-European. From my perspective this is just as immoral from the side of Russia and is from the side of the EU or the US: All want to grab power, poltically and economically of a part of Ukraine. And by doing so, both the US-EU and Russia contribute to a civil war in Ukraine, which is sad.

    Same thing in Syria. EU-US sponsoring the rebels (some of which with ties to terrorists), Russia sponsoring the brutal answer by the Syrian government, and other Muslim nations also trying to put their finger in there too.

    Its never about people, its always an immoral fight for power.

    And the US government has no moral to speak about it: It keeps a millitary base in a country friendly to Russia, Cuba (and against their will, unlike in Ukraine). And was speaking all these last years of pointing a shield (basically balistic missiles) in places like Ukraine or Romania. Its no surprise that Russia wishes to assert itself. Who has been violating more the sovereignity of countries in the past decades: the US government, with support of European countries. Russia surely does as well, but much less.

    • At the risk of getting my comment deleted again. (the last time was justified, I’m not complaining, I just forgot what it was that I had said.)

      The Ukraine, as far as I can tell, has a problem. They owe a crapload of money to Russia’s largest energy company, Gazprom. Natch, Gazprom (and it’s bank) want to get paid, and for the Ukraine to make good on it’s debt. Any IMF “loans” from the EU side of the equation will be quickly gobbled up when that debt comes due. As far as I can tell, Russia doesnt’ have a problem with the IMF throwing money at the Ukraine as that will allow them to make good on their debt. The problem with doing business with a pusher, like the IMF (and buddies) is that they are going to want something for their money. In my opinion, this whole conflict was pushed by outside forces stirring up trouble. Someone paid for or provided the weapons that the anti Russian forces were using. I suspect, is likely someone or an affiliate of the same people who took a strong short position in the various stock markets just before this thing went violent. Markets as a general rule, don’t like armed conflicts and a dropping market is a perfect place for someone who is shorting the market to make a killing financially. Anecdotally, it was purported to be Soros and friends, who have a history of pulling stunts like that. If anyone thought that Russia would be intimidated by Lurch and his panty waist boss, seem to have forgotten South Ossetia. In both cases, the conflicts affect the security of the BTE/BTC pipeline.

      Now on to Syria… Assad declined the pipeline idea that Saudi and Quatari entities wanted to run through there. The idea was for gas from the South Pars (and other) plays to be piped up the (not built) Syrian pipeline to tie in with the BTE/BTC line and allow them to directly compete with Gazrom for the EU market. Assad’s reasons for declining that project make sense. Syria has long been a trading partner with Russia and allowing it would be him cutting his trading partner’s throat. It’s not a good idea to treat your strongest supporter like that, so he didn’t. Miffed, the Saudi and Quatari entities need Assad removed… so, they sic their lapdog on him. That’s the part that pisses me off. All this feigned indignation over what is going on in Syria by the assholes who started it. And the pathetic part, is that in the US, these are the same shit-bots that were chanting “no blood for oil” here in the recent past.

      It sort of makes ya want to puke. I just hope that Putin’s forces politely brutalize whoever is responsible. If it were a core issue by the people that would be a different thing altogether. It appears that in this case the whole shebang is a manufactured crisis. Hell, the guy they outed had been elected in what was deemed to be a fair and open election by the same two faced shitbags that are now bleating about Russia coming in to support the elected government.

      Caveat: I am not a politician or operative for any government. I still have a soul. I am however, an opinionated Ex-Military individual who relished in knowing what the hell was going on around me.

    • @Smell. Right. Good info. Wind direction indicates Torfajökull / Vatnajökull even.
      But there are boreholes in Ölfus region, also capable of gas release.

      • Islander, you are right on the spot. See the new comment on Hekla I am about to post. It could have been Hekla. Now I scream Hekla, Hekla, Hekla….

  2. And it seems that we should give our congratulations to Boris who seems to be celebrating his birthday today!
    Cheers on him!

  3. Looking at Iceland map it there have been a swarm around Heroubreid , several at Askja and a deep one near Bardarbunga but is it related to her next-door neighbor?

    • These spots have been having this activity for years. They are 3 spots:
      ocasional activity at Askja, with some GPS inflation (and ocasionally deep quakes)
      recurrrent earthquake swarms near Herdubreid and Upptypisingar (many deep quakes too)
      and almost only deep quakes near the hotspot center, north of Bardarbunga, mostly near Kistufell, but some further north, ocasionally also within the caldera, and then the fouth spot of unrest at Bardarbunga and the greatest: Hamarinn.

      These are the 6 most active spots of unrest around Vatnajokull (other than Grimsvotn)
      Ocasionally swarms are recorded also at the increasingly restless Kverfjoll
      And a few rare earthquakes every once in a while at the Oraefajokull region (lately have became more frequent)
      We also have seen increasing activity west of Vatnajokull (dead zone). The overall increase is due to a hotspot pulse maxima predicted to occur in the early 21st century

      • Interestingly these spots align SW to NE, just as the rifting occurs:
        Hamarinn, Bardarbunga, Kistufell, Askja, Herdubreid

        Same can be seen now occuring at Hengill. THe earthquake align NNE to SSW.

  4. It’s 4:30 am. took the tooth monster outside so he could look around, Drank a beer and came back inside. Wife asks how the weather is. I told her it’s good werewolf weather. Chilly, not cold., foggier than shit. Death is in the air. She asked what the hell I was talking about. I told her its the sort of night when traffic accidents go up… glad I ain’t driving. You could hear a far off chicken announcing the coming dawn, but its quiet other than that. CSX train, moving north along the tracks about 5 miles out.

    Second beer, maybe there will be sleep ahead.

    • The original dome viewing cam was of course obliterated by the blast .But by some miracle this view of the side of the crater came online only two or tree days later on the same url…

  5. Hey news, regarding the smell event I sensed last Sunday night, coming from NE in southwest Iceland (between Krisuvik and Eyrabakki) While the smell could have been from Brennisteinsalda or the southern end of Hengill region (which had interesting swarms at the same time), I am going to name another possible and more distant culprit: HEKLA. It makes sense as Islander suggested, because the wind was blowing from that direction.

    Now, even before reading Islander suggestions, I saw this:
    and map of stations:

    There seems to be slight inflation (lost within the measurement noise) in the 4 stations near Hekla: HEKR, FEDG, NORS and GLER. Not seen in other 4 stations further away. The upwards movements is still about 1cm and can is still within the measurement variations/ noise, but there seems to be a quite structured and coherent upwards movements in all 4 stations to be just noise.

    Now, this happens naturally, once in a while without any eruption.
    But this and the sulphur smell (which is still just a speculation that could have come from Hekla) are two possible but unconfirmed signs of a nearing eruption.

    I still need to see transients in the borehole measurements near Hekla, and then if we see some earthquakes, well this time it could be it.

    Maybe we can try to catch an inpending eruption before the IMO 😉

    • Moreover the activity continues at both sides of Hengill (the borehole: nothing new with it;; and the new swarm spot near Thorlákshofn, where I had the “unusual sulphur smell experience” last Sunday.

    Interesting plot of recent crustal deformation near Katla.
    Hekla seems quiet but then that’s no indication of anything! is the small swarm at Hengill fracking activity?
    yes ! I am still here and quietly observing.
    Also a Very happy Birthday to Dr Boris. 🙂 I do hope you have had a lovely day 🙂
    ….And here to celebrate for you, a very rare treat…an Icelandic Flash dance on Etna……… 😀 😀 😀

    • I would just like to point out that Enta has a rather intriguing seasonal pattern to the GPS, if you look you can see the same uplift repeat at the same time every year.
      But, one should also see that if one would even that out there would still be an uplift that is steady. As many Icelandic large volcanoes Katla is indeed inflating, the question is more how much they can go before erupting.

  7. One for the structural physics specialists.

    A bridge in Maine was deemed structurally unsound and in imminent danger of collapse. The bridge was closed and Dept of Transportation brought in a demolition team who planted explosives to cut the bridge.

    The Maine Department of Transportation told New Sharon selectmen in November that the bridge was in danger of collapsing, and the state would pay to remove it. The structure had significant cracks in the abutments, according to the transportation department.

    If the town had rejected the department’s offer to demolish the bridge, which has been closed for two decades, and it had collapsed on its own, the town would have been responsible for cleanup costs and any damage downstream.

    Town officials said that they didn’t publicize the demolition because they didn’t want a large crowd to gather at the blast site, but dozens of onlookers assembled to snap photos along the riverbank on the neighboring U.S. Route 2 bridge and from Main Street near the fire station.

    The 2 p.m. explosion was met with anti-climactic silence as onlookers held up phones and cameras waiting for the bridge to fall. When that didn’t happen after several minutes, onlookers began asking fire and police crews what was going on and several people began cracking jokes about the demolition’s failure.

    • Well, as an ex Firefighter and First responder… I may find that whatever you did may or may not be all that stupid at all. Relatively speaking. It’s not like you burnt your heels stumbling over burning bowling balls while trying to make access to the door of a burning structure.

      Think about this. I am sitting here pondering whether or not to erase the accelerometer data that I took when I ran my truck through the car wash. It contains all the transients and bumps from the rollers and brushes. Why I thought that acquiring that data was useful is beyond me.

      On a side note, as an illustration of power in an earthquake. A 2270 kg vehicle hitting a tree at about 31 m/s expends about the same amount of energy as a magnitude 0.8 earthquake.

        • Never a good thing to take out your frustrations on yourself or anyone you care about. It only makes whatever situation that exists even worse.

          It may not apply, but my Mom taught me that if you’re walking across a feed lot or pasture and you step in a pile of shit, don’t stand there whining about standing in a pile of shit, keep walking.

          Now, if you want to have some fun with a minor distraction… the magma genesis zone from a subducting slab is about 110 to 125 km depth contour line of the slab.

          Take a look at this.

          Click to access kuril_tsum.pdf

          Find the 120 km contour and take a look where it passes under the island of Hokkaido. It will be the red line next to the orange ones. It seems to me, that the volcanoes above that line are the ones with the greatest potential to be active in the geologic future. The District capital of Sapporo. Thats almost 2 million people living in what could be a bad place if a dollop of magma wafts up under the city. That 120 km contour passes directly under the city.

      • Tyler…
        You should try lifting weights. I am not the guy that most into psychologists on the planet, so I lift weights instead. When I feel down I go and lift weights untill I can hardly move. The big thing is that the day after you have something legit to complain about since the entire body hurts (and you know it is a good hurt) and also you will have a ginormous release of various neurological signal substances that will make you feel better. Second benefit is that you will sleep like a baby without chemical aid.
        As I said, it helps me. It might not be the exactly right cup of tea for you. But try to find something that makes both you and your body feel good.
        And the most important thing, don’t care what other people think about things, after all they are not you.

        On a bit of a hilarious note… A couple of times I done my legs so bad that I could hardly walk the day after. And sitting down… Well, the muscles hurt so bad I screamed while trying to sit down. On one memorable such occation I went to a classical concert and during the interlude I went to the John to take a crap. I had kind of forgotten my pains and sat down to quickly… Imagine that you where in a public stall toilett and a big dude goes into one of the stalls and a few seconds lets out this huge roar of pain… Had me chuckling for days.

        So, find some form of excercise that you like and just do it for you and don’t give a crap about becoming good at it or some such. Hopefully it will make you feel a bit better for the long run 🙂

        • Or just take a stroll if the weather permits (I’m not suggesting walking randomly in a blizzard or in sleeting rain of course). Anyone can walk (well if you’re not in a bad physical shape, you should). Depending where you live you can even make some geological constatations….

    • Hi Tyler,
      Sorry that life is getting you down lately…
      I work in Mental Health/ Learning Disability services and I’m currently off with what my Doctor describes as a Stress Reaction, after 3 years of massively increasing pressure I finally blew a mental gasket…
      I am recovering, I’ve been off work for 2 months and when I eventually return I hope to be doing a different job entirely…
      I have some idea of what you are going through and I want to share something that has helped me…
      What Carl, Geolurking and DFM have suggested are potential Flow Activities; the number one tip for increased happiness is engaging in these…
      They are different for everyone but they are characterised by total engrossment/ involvement in the task at hand and the apparently unnoticed passing of time; i.e. you look at the clock and it’s suddenly 2 hours later…
      Walking, lifting weights and plotting are all good, my personal favourite is gardening, over the last 2 months, rain or shine I’ve put in several hours a day. I’ve been digging a big hole to extend our patio (the garden slopes uphill from the backdoor) and I must have moved several tons of soil, rock, bricks and would you believe, an iron bedschtead…
      Importantly, activities such as schurfing the worldwideinterwebnet and watching TV are not generally “Flow” but researching and compiling an article for Volcanocafe could be…
      There must be some interesting geology in your area… 🙂
      I have been struggling to engage with my friends but I have to say it is well worth making the effort, whilst they may not entirely understand, if they are a true friend they will do their utmost to help…
      And if all else fails there’s always:

        • A good eruption is good for the soul.
          With a bit of luck we might soon have a Hekla to lift our Spirits with.

      • Shteve. So sorry to hear you are not too good. Oh Dear! I think meeting me in Brighton must have sent you over the edge. 😀 😀 There again if I was nearer Tyler I could become a flow activity…Shteve and I met up in a coffee house in Brighton. We chatted about Life and Volcanoes and three hours passed before we knew it!
        Gardening..the heavy sort. Growing veggies. Battling weeds is good for the soul and body. I love animals and birds. All wild life. I encourage the frogs and bees……..However I could never be a good Buddhist as I have been known to kill slugs. Snails can be picked off the young veggie plants and hurled into the field next to my allotment. but slugs I am afraid have a humane and I hope painless end. Time passes quickly and there is a satisfaction of seeing practical results very quickly.
        I shall be in Brighton again very soon by the end of March and I would very much like to meet up again 🙂
        Hugs all round and especially to anyone feeling low. . Always remember that to create something beautiful whether painting, sculpture, photograph or your life it would be flat and formless without shadows. 🙂

  8. Tongue in cheek This is the art for the Sunday show. It’ s a play on a US colloquialism of “cry me a river” in relation to the whining that the US press is making about Putin rolling in forces to support the dully elected government there. Though the yammering media bobble heads tend to forget that little fact.

    On a more serious note. Remember that very bad things can happen due to innocuous events in far away places. Just look at what happened after Archduke Ferdinand got attacked. (not the video, she just has an awesome voice)

    Normally, I like Rammstein, but Till Lindemann just doesn’t pull off this song well. It’s more of a staccato grunt and Gabriele Susanne Kerner is a hell of a lot more easier on the eyes.

  9. Very shallow quake at Hekla… No harmonic tremor detected and no shift in the strainmeters.
    Monday 03.03.2014 10:35:03 63.990 -19.692 0.1 km 0.7 99.0 1.2 km W of Hekla

    • I spoke of this the day before yesterday. The four nearest stations around Hekla seem to show some GPS inflation, but still within noise (about 1cm up displacement in just a few days). This is still within noise, so it could be nothing.
      However, the other day I sensed that sulphur smell which me and Islander realized it could have originated from Hekla and then carried by the wind towards the southwest. The hypothesis A was that the sulphur smell originated locally, on that spot that recorded a swarm in the southern region of Hengill system.

      Now, we see a third sign, but only one earthquake. Nothing significant yet. But if all these signs mean something, then Hekla is onto something in soon.

      • Let’s see whether more transients or more earthquakes happen in the next few days. I am making a guess that Hekla might actually erupt in soon.

        • It’s a guess (based on these signs, which are all unconfirmed and unreliable). Hekla seems to like to tease us and give us only hints but not clear data.

      • Two actually, there was a previous one at the WSW end of Heklas fissure swarm.
        In regards of the GPS motion, note that there is no lateral motion visible.

        • Exactly.
          We need to check one thing: what happened GPS-wise before the 2000 eruption?
          Was there GPS motion in the days before,or was it totally without any GPS warning?

          Surely now there are many more stations and more sensitive.

          Also Hekla is fully snow covered. Sometimes before an eruption (but not necessarely I think) Hekla shows less snow-cover on its summit.

          Ahh. it’s a tease!

          • As far as I know nothing showed on the GPS before the eruption, but it was quite less monitored back then. As far as is known no signals will be quite visible before an eruption, it more looks like Hekla is the type that quietly inflates at a steady slow pace.
            The snow cowered part is most likely just coincidence. At almost every eruption she has been snow-cowered, and up untill 1947 she even had a minute glacier at the top.

    • If Hekla had been going she would have gone by now.
      I am still betting on Grimsvötn being the next to go.

    • Been updated now to 3 quakes. Interestingly enough they have occured at the northern end and the southern end of the fissure. And also one directly under Hekla.
      03.03.2014 10:35:03 63.990 -19.692 0.1 km 0.7 99.0 1.2 km W of Hekla
      03.03.2014 10:18:06 64.015 -19.580 4.7 km 0.9 99.0 5.0 km ENE of Hekla
      03.03.2014 08:08:00 63.925 -19.930 7.0 km 0.7 99.0 14.8 km WSW of Hekla

      • Yes I hace been watching this. There doesn’t seem to be any other indications that She is about to blow…but then this is Hekla! Who knows what ? I think irpsit is possibly nearest and closest in all respects.

        • I think it might be a fissure eruption in the making at the southern end. There has been 10 earthquakes at the southern end of the fissure in the last couple of weeks or so.
          I think Icelander will be the first there when something happens, and there are evil and secret plans for terrific live coverage exclusively for VC.

          “VC have a most cunning and evil plan”

          • oooooooooh! I like Cunning but not evil 😀 😀 Boris has Etna viewed from his kitchen window. I wonder does irpsit have Hekla in sight when washing up the dinner plates?
            A Cunning person….. Old English meaning Knowledge (Both carnal and intellectual) Experienced. Ability. Nothing at all to do with slyness or questionable behaviours. Old ladies were often described as Cunning, meaning they had great knowledge especially of herbal, familial and medical matters. They were once revered and held in great esteem until the Witch trials of the 17th C. Then cunning became associated with nefarious practice and suspicion.

  10. It is easier when you have a volcano on a 2000 day schedule give or take. We are 1,000 days into this Grimsvotn cycle Carl.

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