Bárdarbunga
The almost obscenely inconspicious volcano of Bárdarbunga seen in all it’s icy glory.
The Bárdarbunga volcanic system is the largest in Iceland and it has erupted more lava than any other volcano on the planet in the last 10 000 years. The volcanic system is 200 kilometers long and 25 kilometers wide.
The central volcano has a seventy square kilometer caldera that is ten kilometers across. Technically it is a highly complex type of volcano that is a mixture between a shield volcano, a strato volcano, tuya formations, volcanic ridges, radial volcanic fissures and a truly astounding volcanic fissure swarm extending in a NNE/SSW direction out from the central volcano.
The largest effusive eruptions has come from the fissure swarm where the Thjorsahraun is the largest lava eruption on the planet in the last 10 000 years. The largest explosive eruption occurred in 1477 during the Veidivötn basalt flood eruption in the southern part of the fissure swarm. During that eruption a VEI-6 explosive eruption occurred in the caldera that was the largest explosive eruption in Iceland since Grimsvötn suffered another VEI-6 almost 10 000 years ago. The 1477 eruption is the largest explosive eruption in Iceland since settlement and also the second largest effusive eruption only bested by the Lakí eruption. I think I just set a new record in using the word “largest” in a single paragraph.
The faulting mechanism of the M5 1996 Bárdarbunga earthquake. This is how a non-double-couple earthquake with no volumetric change looks like.
Bárdarbunga is understudied since very little was known about the volcano until satellite imagery revealed the true scale. The reason behind this is a combination between it being remote, it having had small and benign eruptions for the last 537 years. The small scale of the eruptions are probably due to damages to the volcanic chamber system in the caldera after the large explosive eruption in 1477. The last reason is that the entire volcano is covered in ice completely.
The last confirmed eruption in Bárdarbunga occurred in 1996 during the Gjálp eruption. That eruption was a short duration VEI-2 eruption with a 3.5km high eruption column. It is also possible that the entire Gjálp eruption was a radial fissure eruption from Bárdarbunga and that Grimsvötn erroneously had that eruption attributed to it. The jury is out on that one.
Bárdarbunga is also by far the most seismically active of the volcanoes on Iceland. Not in numbers, that is the Gódabunga Cryptodome near Katla Volcano, but in the amount of Cumulative Seismic Release. CSR is the same as the amount of earthquake energy released over time.
Gjálp
Image from the 1996 Gjálp eruption.
During the decade leading up to the Gjálp eruption Bárdarbunga suffered from a very peculiar set of earthquakes ranging between M4 and M5.1 ending with the M5 earthquake that set of an intense earthquake swarm consisting of continuous earthquakes ranging between M3 and M4 as the Gjálp fissure ripped open.
After the Gjálp eruption Bárdarbunga has suffered several seismic swarms. These swarms can be short bursts, or longer swarms that can last for months. The current swarm has now been running for 2 months, it has consisted of several different loci. One is around Kistufell where predominantly deep earthquakes (>20km) have occurred with earthquakes well spaced out in time, this swarm was the first part of the current seismic unrest cycle. After that a more vigorous swarm started on a radial fissure between Kistufell and Bárdarbunga. This swarm mainly consisted of earthquakes between 12km and 5km and the strength of the individual earthquakes have mostly been small (M1 to M2). In the last month a third swarm has started in the Bárdarbunga caldera with events ranging from M1 to M2.7. The depths have ranged from 14km to 0.5km, and the earthquakes have mainly been tectonic but with a few showing more magmatectonic signatures.
GPS
Image from Icelandic Met Office. Dyngjuháls GPS.
Sadly the nearest GPS has suffered a malfunction with the last data point coming from 19th of June this year for the long-term plot. Anyways it shows a rather interesting pattern. The Dyngjuháls GPS-station is directly north of Bárdarbunga. Since October 2008 the station has been pushed 140mm straight north and 100mm straight up. That would be 17mm of north motion per year and 23mm of uplift. If we now imagine that the station had been on top of the hypocenter of inflation we would probably see values in the range of 5cm of yearly uplift.
If one instead look at the short term plot there is not a lot to be had, it seems like the general uplift has not changed due to the current seismic activity.
Conclusion
A smal part of the 1477 eruption of Veidivötn. Photograph by Rajan Parrikar.
Even though this is far from the largest earthquake swarm at Bárdarbunga, neither is it the longest, it is still a bit of an oddity. First of all the earthquakes are deeper than normal (even though they have happened before). But the main oddity is the distribution of the individual swarms since they follow directly along the path of the main northern fissure swarm of Bárdarbunga. Also, the earthquakes have grown slightly larger and more numerous over time instead of abating.
One should not have feelings around volcanoes; one should instead look sternly at the facts at hand. And a slightly unusual set of swarms is far from a definite sign. Especially at a volcano that can be orders of magnitude more energetic. Still the feeling lingers that this could be the start of the run up. I might of course be totally wrong and it all putters out without even letting out a fart. But, still it could be fun to go through what I think would happen if the volcano erupted and what I think the signs would be for that eruption.
I think that Gjálp is a good indication of what to expect. I think we will see a non-double-couple earthquake with no volumetric change happening inside the caldera with strength between M4.5 and M5.5, after that an intense swarm will occur between Bárdarbunga and Kistufell as the fissure opens up. Expect to see continuous earthquakes above M3 for a day or two. After that the eruption will break through the ice. I also expect that intermittent earthquake swarms will strike at Bárdarbunga and that a VEI-2 eruption will occur there too. I expect the eruption to run for anything between 1 week and 4 months and that between 0.1 and 4 cubic kilometers of lava will be erupted. It is guesswork, but I think I am pretty much on the football field with my guesstimate.
I will though reiterate, there are currently no definite signs for a coming eruption. But if an eruption is around the corner we will not be guessing, we will know for sure because one thing is a definite and that is that it will be noisy.
CARL
MATTS RIDDLES!
This week the answers to Matt´s riddles are volcanoes and volcanic features. 2 points are awarded for each correct answer, 1 point after a clue was given. Good luck!
#1 I’m really going to lead you down the wrong path with this riddle!
2 points Bobbi It’s in the South Shetland islands, and those are Shetland ponies. Leading someone down the wrong path, of course, is deception. It used to be a great refuge for ships seeking to avoid storms and icebergs.
#2 On this American battleground, the invaders left dogs and fresh-brewed coffee. Most of the casualties were from the weather. Sissel 2 points his Aleutian volcano was the only part of the United States successfully invaded by an axis power during WWII. The Japanese knew about the allied invasion forces, and evacuated, leaving “Nothing but dogs and fresh-brewed coffee” according to the admiral in charge of the allied campaign. Although the Japanese boobytrapped the place, and although the Canadians and Americans accidentally shot at each other during the operation, weather-related illness took the heaviest toll.
#3 Unfortunately, this island played a role in the Falklands conflict. 2 points Frances. Ans: San Felix (Part of the Desventuradas Islands, or “unfortunate islands,” it was the base for some British reconnaissance missions. The islands were formed in a volcanic eruption about 100,000 years ago.)
#4 This extinct volcano was the site of the last tree of its species, (at least in the wild.) The cutting of the rest was part of the residents’ downfall. Irpsit 2 points Rano Kau on Easter Island. The last wild Toromiro tree, endemic to Easter Island, grew in its crater. The ecological pillage of the land that led to its extinction in the wild also led to the collapse of the island’s civilization.
#5 This one will be forever etched into your mind… and your sheep. 2 points KarenZ
This volcanic gas is emitted in large quantities by Icelandic volcanoes. During the Laki fissure eruption, it poisoned a lot of sheep and other livestock, leaving the residents to starve. Plenty of the residents died or were weakened by this gas as well. Hydrofluoric acid is commonly used to etch glass and silicon wafers.
In its air-diluted form, or with sufficient amounts dissolved in the water you drink, far more than in fluoridated drinking water, chronic exposure damages bones and teeth, causing painful lesions on them, eventually leading to death.
In its concentrated form, this acid can be quite deadly. It readily passes through the skin, where it pulls calcium ions out of the tissue and blood. This means the nerves can’t transmit signals, so you don’t feel the pain of the burn, at least until the fluoride goes away. More than a few square inches of burn area can pull enough calcium out of your blood to stop your heart.
| Score board: | Updated Scoreboard (missing 1 Answer on #3) |
| 24 Sissel 8 Inannamoon667 5 KarenZ 5 Bobbi 5 Dinojura44 4 Dorkviking 1 RenatoRio 1 Talla |
26 Sissel 8 Inannamoon667 7 KarenZ 7 Bobbi 5 Dinojura44 4 Dorkviking 2 Frances 2 Irpsit 1 RenatoRio 1 Talla |
VolcanoCafé 
they have just changed the aviation warning to yellow for Bardarbunga
Where did you see that?
Bárbarbunga is just the largest/widest volcano in Iceland, like a giant ice-filled dome.
Largest and deepest caldera. 15km across, 700m deep
Longest volcanic fissure region. Near 100km both SW and NE.
Most seismic volcano.
Longest fissure eruption in historical times; Veidivotn 1477.
Which is also the only confirmed VEI6 eruption in historical times.
And also the biggest ash eruption. The Vatnaoldur in 873, called Settelment ash.
The two largest and longest lava fields in Holocene times. Tjorsáhraun and Ódadahraun.
And finally, together with Grimsvotn, both sit right at the center of the hotspot/plume, and are the 4th and 1st most active volcanoes in Iceland, in historical times, respectively (Hekla and Katla are 2nd and 3rd).
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/ Found it here
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/
Damn, you people are posting faster than I can refresh the site. 🙂 Sorry. better to have two links rather than one. 😀
on a side note: What I find the most interesting about all this so far, is how far around and how strong, is the tremor being detected. 🙂
This looks to me like a long period event and a possible pressuration of the area.
IMO just released a statement:
“At about 3 a.m. this morning (16 August), an earthquake swarm began by Bárdarbunga volcano in NW Vatnajökull ice cap. Over 200 earthquakes have been recorded. The largest earthquakes have magnitudes of around 3 and over. This is the most intense earthquake swarm in this area for years. Measurements indicate magma movement. The IMO is following the situation closely and has alerted the Civil Protection Agency and aviation authorities.”
Thanks Tyler, was just going to post the link to that:
http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2934
Uncertainty phase has been declared on Bárðarbunga volcano
I would LOVE to see what’s happening under that Icecap
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/16/ovissustig_vegna_bardabungu/
Ríkislögreglustjóri hefur í samráði við lögreglustjórana á Hvolsvelli og Húsavík ákveðið að lýsa yfir óvissustigi vegna jarðhræringa í Bárðabungu á Vatnajökli.
Frá því í nótt hefur verið viðvarandi jarðskjálftahrina í Bárðabungu sem stendur enn yfir. Jarðvísindamenn og viðbragðsaðilar hafa verið upplýstir og fylgjast vel með framvindu mála, að því er segir í tilkynningu.
Óvissustig almannavarna þýðir að aukið eftirlit er haft með atburðarrás sem á síðari stigum gæti leitt til þess að heilsu og öryggi fólks, umhverfis eða byggðar verði ógnað. Að lýsa yfir óvissustigi er hluti af verkferlum í skipulagi almannavarna til að tryggja formleg samskipti og upplýsingagjöf á milli viðbragðsaðila.
National Commissioner of Police, in consultation with the police administrators in Hvolsvelli and Húsavík decided to declare the uncertainty level by earthquakes in Bard bulge on the icecap.
Since night has been sustained in the earthquake Bard bulge which is still in progress. Geologists, response and have been informed and keep abreast of developments, as stated in the announcement.
Uncertainty alert levels means increased monitoring of the actions of the latter stages could lead to the health and safety of people, environment, and will be built under threat. Describe the uncertainty is part of the procedures in emergency planning to ensure formal communication and information between emergency organizations.
There you go *sent from remote workstation
This is getting interesting.
Certainly is 🙂
Interesting developments, now the question, looking at the EQ developing, it seems that they are reducing in strength (unless, after writing this, things change :).). Would this mean something is already started or is this a sign of a “not yet”. What do you think..
Don’t forget that there is a storm running over the area of question. This quenches all smaller earthquakes. That we still have around 250 quakes since 3 am is quite a lot and showing that this swarm is pretty strong.
Thanx, did not count that in..
The probable GPS response might be cool.
And how cool would it be to see Grimsvotn join the party in a day or two? 😀
It looks like that might of happened an hour ago. a quake 9.0 km north of grimsjall
LATEST UPDATE
Swarms at Bunga are ongoing. Quake count 48 hrs has risen to 277 (one green star).
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
This is #bardabunga hasttag at twitter 😉
Most significant recap for last three hours, is that IMO and National Police Commissioner´s (on both sides of the Island) have put up warning and aviation code for Bárðarbunga has been changed to Yellow. Flood (if any) can flow both ways, three actually, but we do not at present time know for certain that any melt has started. IMO expert informed in news (RUV 4 hours ago) “they can not rule out magma has penetrated to surface” under the 700 meter thick glacier, and this takes days to melt.
http://i58.tinypic.com/241ry81.jpg Interesting to see how activity focuses on two areas.
Looks like a radial fissure from the main volano
*not expert*
Saturday
16.08.2014 12:03:10 64.690 -17.322 5.6 km 3.5 99.0 11.2 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
I thought that would be upgraded – it looked big on all the charts and caused a spike at Hekla. Another big one recently that might be a 3.
Seems Cat below is out of the bag … 😉
It’s the 15:48 quake I think will be upgraded. I think there’s more than a cat down there – a big Dragon! 🙂
Ok, I think there are several ther, and they work for us 😉
I am still missing the M4s and M5s that Carl was talking about. that would be cool to see 😦
Then there whould be major outbreak, this now could be just the runup, we do not know yet.
That could lead to “2010 situation” in the Airline Transport Sector 😉
Well now that you mentioned it, the weather pattern will be freaking perfect for that.
As long as its not another Gjalp. Just sayin. 🙂
Do not rule that out 😉
IMO, University experts, National Emergency Institude etc. are in meeting now, discussing this latest events. Also Weather warnings are in effect, in areas under observations.
Thanks Islander – I take it there are very few people, if any, living around there. Will there be tourists? If so, when would they be advised to evacuate. I know you’ve given us this information before but there may be new readers who would like to know. 🙂
Nothing need be evauated as of now, AFAIK. If flood comes Þ(when) the Services will issue warning to that effect, and yes there are tourists and 4X4WD vehicles, but area is very remote, but there is also highland watch (patrols) that undouptedly will warn motoists in NE of Bunga area.
one more star – 12.00 noon
Ironic timing of the post here. It’s interesting how the quake swarm is clear all the way down the fissure swarm from Bardarbunga to Kistufell.
Thats a big area to UNZIP, surely not that big!!!
We could see 25 to 40 km rift someday.
Maybe not today, or any living soul to see, but someday!
Media is beginning “make thair day” out of it. (Hype)
http://www.visir.is/-eitt-oflugasta-og-haettulegasta-eldfjall-islands-/article/2014140819226
I used Giggle Translate on the article in your link, and the first para came out as this: “A major earthquake has been in eruption Bárðarbunga since the fourth time last night and now the earthquakes are over two hundred employees.” I’m pleased to see Icelandic folks being properly employed, perhaps jumping up and down in Bárðarbunga? Thanks for the link Islander! Things look interesting here.
16.08.2014 16:20:01 63.850 -18.674 1.1 km 2.6 43.6 24.5 km SE of Landmannalaugar
(in Laki area.) Who was talking of UNZIP ?
The 300 quake barrier (per 48 hrs) has fallen. Swarm continiues, at steady pace.
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table
But this is for the whole county. If you look at the Vatnajökull region alone, the actual count is 285, although this will change when the quakes get reviewed by the IMO.
Yes, I use GRAND total. Because some ar in other places, but over 90% are #Bardarbunga
now the 300 barrier has fallen also at Bardy. 🙂
Jón Frímann @jonfr500 · 45 seg
Earthquake activity seems to be increasing again in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Yes, we know.
Yep, I was looking at that too. Impressive.
I wonder if they there saw nothing due to clouds.
http://www.flightradar24.com/THY5/41624a8
Might be worth to check for lightning from time to time, e.g. here
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=de
And when you see it, brix will be shat…
Sorry I just had to. 🙂 With 700m of ice, its gonna take a bit more of a punch for some lightning to happen. 🙂 *total newbie disclaimer*
The eruption of Grimsvötn in 1996 took three days to melt through the ice shield, if I remember correct. I would expect a similar amount of time here.
Just over two days it took “Gjálp” to punch thrugh the ice (Ref: “Eldgos 1913 – 2004” Ari Trausti Gudmundsson & Ragnar Th Sigurdson, 2005, P. 102)
And I wonder if the individual quakes around the main swarm are real or just ghosts….
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/
look in table, 90% and over are not Ghosts
Are we saying oh shit this is going to happen. Are we at that point?
No, not at this time.
correct, but can change in a day or so
Considering all the info I heard in here in the past months since I am here, I would say that Bardy should spit out an M4 or two to make it closer to that. But hell, this is Iceland we are talking about, and I am one of the last people to know when is the oh shit moment for anything in Vatnajokull. Tho I have a certain image what would it take to make me go o shit, but its not legit because I have pretty much no visual experience with Icelandic quake swarms. I said oh shit when I saw this swarm in the morning 😉 Its really subjectve, so unless Islander or Carl say oh shit, I aint gonna sweat it. 😀
Trouble with that that general rule is that there are exceptions. Some volcanoes just go from whoa to go within hours:
Description: From Neal and others (2011): “Okmok Volcano, a 10-km (6.2-mi) diameter Holocene caldera system in the central Aleutians [fig. 14; imageid 13283], began a protracted explosive eruption on July 12. The opening explosions consumed a portion of intracaldera Cone D within the east-central sector of the caldera, reaming several new craters into the caldera floor. Eruptive activity began only a few hours after a subtle increase in the rate of earthquakes followed by a short swarm sequence, both noted only in retrospect.”
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/activity.php?volcname=Okmok&eruptionid=604&page=basic
sorry, forgot the quotation marks. click on the link to learn more.
GL Edit: Hows that?
really really cool!!
Maybe shit already happened but it will take a few days to break the ice.
But that shit is likely small sized.
Larger shit would require a string of larger quakes. Possible, even likely, but not yet there.
Just a short input from my side:
Two weeks ago I hiked from Reykjhalid at Myvatn to Nyidalur along the southern Gaesavotn route.
In case that there is a Jökullauph to the north, it will most likely follow the River Rjupnabrekkukvisl just to the west of the Gaesavotn hut/lakes. Also there is a bridge about 10km north from there, that most likely will be affected if an outburst flood occurs.
Now it’s back to unloading my gear, just arrived home a few hours ago… naturally the action in Iceland starts just after i’ve left that damn desolated place! (I’m only speaking about the area between Myvatn and Vatnajökull, that place did things to my mind while I was hiking out there on my own… i think i got close to my limits out there…
ps. Hi Carl
Sorry that you got worried while i was out there near Askja when that Landslide happened.
Just to update you a little bit on how well everything went: The day after my restday was probably the worst day I’ve ever had while hiking. Temperatures allmost down at the freezing point, hard rain/snow/sleet and a hard wind for the whole day. Hiked for 5 hours without a break because there litteraly was no place where you could find any sort of shelter (behind a rock or something). Had to put up my tent out in the nowhere just to get be able to get out of the wind… the rest of the night was just terrible cold and wet (all my gear got wet) and pretty aweful to say it shortly… luckely the next day was a little bit better. After all that I decided to go to Nyidalur and skip 6-7 days in the desert by bus. so now i’ve got unfinished bussines in iceland again… Will be back in probably a year or two!
Regards
Stefan
Oh, that’s the epic hike, of course!
Yes, it’s hard when it rains and its very windy and snowy there. You need always better gear than you think, unless you feel it you get the professional gear.
Well, people can get into hypothermia if they make mistakes, in Sprengisandur or anywhere highlands in Iceland.
Nice to know you got back well. I was doing the Laugavegur 2 weekends ago, and at second day had to quit, because of a tendon pain, and if I didn’t I would have faced snow and stormy weather in the mountains while with a terrible pain. Did a smart decision even if very frustating. So, I totally understand you.
Nice also to get that information about a possible flood route. I thought it would be down Jokulsá river, well actually it drains the NE of Bardarbunga, so I also expect it to flood as well. If eruption happens that side.
You are right, that river the second likely outlet for a flood. In that case, it will flood all the way along the east side of Sprengisandur, maybe even affecting the area near Godafoss.
What doesn’t kill you makes you crazy. 😉 Geile Geschichte.
Several things to point out.
First immediate danger is mostly likely only to tourists on rivers which come from the west and north edges of Vatnajokull. This includes the Skaftá river near Laki, and the Jokulsá river, which passes very close to Askja road. So danger is there of a glacial burst, which would without a doubt swept a large part of that road. Also the hut of Nyidalur is located near Bardarbunga, evacuation by jeep takes 2 hours from there. so this must be taken in consideration. Tourists cannot be surprised by a ash cloud like they were in May 2011 during the night, you suddently wake up the next morning to severe volcanic night and ashfall.
If an eruption already started (very possible and somewhat likely), it’s going to take between a couple of hourss to a couple of days to reach surface depending on its strenght, but this only if eruption is at least a strong VEI2 or small VEI3. Anything smaller, like a repeat of Fimmvorduhals and it would never break to surface.
Any flood could take also between hours to weeks to come out of the glacier. Remember the 1996 flood took an entire month to come out of the glacier and did so by surprise. And that’s the danger. It would be several weeks after “this event” is over.
I also do not exclude that this is a runup to a large fissure event NE of Bardarbunga. It could open between 5km to 30km. Remember we are at a time of a hotspot maxima of activity, where very large eruptions are expected between now and mid century. Also rifting cycle predicts a large fissure event sometime around mid century.
But a larger fissure would need much more stronger earthquakes (remember Laki unzipped by a series of M5 quakes). But 1996 5km fissure unzipped by just a few M3 quakes. Thus, so far, with the current activity, only a minor fissure can open, not a big one. So either a minor fissure already started or this is just a gradual build-up to larger event later.
Two very large fissure events happened in Bardarbunga in historical times, one in 873 and another in 1477. They blew up in a region where there was the largest lake in Iceland (as large as Thingvallavatn), so it caused explosive crater rows and a lot of ashfall. So, that was 600 years between events. And last one was 540 years ago.
But between these events, Bardarbunga has minor events, small explosive eruptions that break the ice cap, like in 1902 or 1910, almost on average every 5-20 years, and one moderate sized fissure event in 1862, that lasted several months. Probably other moderate sized fissure events happened but they are badly documented.
The strange thing is why Bardarbunga was regularly erupting every few years until 1910 and then stopped (except for a minor event in 1996 and some other unconfirmed under-ice events in between).
Stöð 2 News said at the end of their news program that an eruption is more likely than not.
I think it’s too early to tell though.
That’s funny because the guy on RÚV said it’s not very likely.
And Víðir Reynisson, head of civil protection, telling RÚV news that an eruption is (as of now) unlikely.
Germans could view Laki documentary on Arte right now.
Good timing 😉
crap timing. I just logged on… 2 hours too late!!
Hello Volcanocafers,
Whilst we anticipate; some schplendid footage of Schtromboli from last weekend:
Wow, awesome footage. Love the huge range of visuals. From pahoehoe flows near the crater to blocky ‘a’a flows and vigorous phreatic jetting at the water’s edge. The sicara del fuoco is so steep it is hard to imagine anything sticking to it for too long before plummeting into the water. I wonder why no bench has formed at the water’s edge yet. Is the underwater topography so steep that everything just keeps plummeting into the deep?
Impressing video! It looks like there is now an erupting vent in – or at least very close to – the sea.
It looks that way, but I think it’s the lava flow fromt summit interacting with the sea…
Hi schteve. Been lurking for a while but that impressive video made me post. many thanks for that, lovely to have something to watch while waiting for possible action in Iceland.
Hi Newby x
It’s actually imported from the VC factbook page, posted there by AVCAN…
Yup, if she blows this’ll be my first “live” Icelandic eruption, it’s reassuring to know how well prepared the people and officials are….
Hi Frances! Long time no read! Good to see you again. 😀
Hi Frances. Good to see you by.
Hi Frances! Good to see you!
Hoi Sissel
saw a mosausorus today. And some iguanodons.
Wow, where were you?
brussels
3 Difficult… all I can think of is “unfortunately” = “alas”. But alas, there is no Alas volcano, cannot find any connection with Alaska (which is not even a country 🙂 ) either. But there is an Alas Purwo National Park in Indonesia, eastern Java. It is not too far from the Ijen volcanic complex, which is probably totally wrong, of course.
Jón Frímann @jonfr500 · 38 seg
I suspect that the harmonic tremor has just took the jump upwards just now. Still waiting on new update on the tremor data to confirm it.
Just general musings on my part… bear of little brain and all that.. given that seismic release refers to a release of pent up strain, won’t purely extensional quakes like here at Bardabunga have a smaller signal than strike-slip or reverse thrust quakes as the strain is basically just a ripping apart rather than a frictional plane sliding-against-one-another type scenario? Implying that the quakes prior to an eruption might actually be quite low magnitude.
I know experience does not bear this out with large M7 quakes occurring in extensional regimes, but still…
Not an erroneous idea, but the area under the volcano has a pretty good likelihood of being pretty ductile from the residual heat of past eruptions. While doing a heat model run of Lakiskagar, I was surprised at just how slowly the vents loose heat and solidify.
So ductile plasticene ripping apart is not going to give much of a signal either! Eyjaf… at least the area under Fimmvorduhalsi was pretty cold and the intrusion was a push-me rather than pull-me scenario, hence the huge number of quakes. If Bardabunga is a) warm and b) right on top of the main rift, is it necessary to have huge seismic activity before an eruption? I know Laki proves me wrong here but maybe Laki was colder than we think.
ductile plasticene ripping = think silly putty
i.e there will be a signal but it will be lower magnitude.
Really depends. I think it’s still pretty ductile. That’s what makes the Dead Zone dead (seismically).
Output from Head3D, simulating the heat loss in a region around a feeder dike in Laki like environment.
HEAT3D: Magmatic Heat Flow Calculation
Ken Wohletz, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LA-CC-99-27)
I was supposed to take a nap right now , but how can I?
:wave:
*applause*
\o/
Total: 402 quakes now http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table
No 3. South Georgia Island. It has volcanic features and also was used during Falklands war.
OOPS, sorry Islander, just looked back and saw you suggested this one at around 10:00am this morning!
Yep, no prob, no no win there, I think 🙂
GL Edit: I would link the image, but it’s off of a twitter feed and could easily “break,” the other option is to capture the image and host it locally, but it is technically artwork and would be wrong to do so. The other option is for me to try and replicate the image, though my listi is not as up to date as it has been in the past. It is a good plot, though it doesn’t show any specific trending. If you are up to it, I recommend visiting the link, just be aware that it is not hosted on VC and you could be subject to whatever code embeds that it may have associated with it.
twitter images can be directly embedded by clicking on the timestamp and pasting that url here in a separate line.
I think did some mistake, intended embed the tweet, not the re-tweet *red face*
(edit, some who know that, please!)
… and that illustrates my point. Lord knows what sort of scripting they use in their system, and once you figure it out and get it to work, their code monkeys come along and change it.
The only reliable way to make it work is to grab a capture of the image and drop it as a graphics file into a repository of known and stable operation, then you fall into the plagiarism trap and are open to lawsuits.
Found the updated version:
tinypics disappear, too, after a while… everything is transient, this is a bit like the 4chan of volcanology with slightly longer memory 😉
But… with tinypic, the disappearance is expected and you can do a local file storage if it is important to the article.
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/16/gaeti_verid_undanfari_eldgoss/
UPDATE 19:42 – 80% increase in tremour intensity.
Maybe a silly question, what’s the best webcam?
Blue Lagoon, but it offers no view of the volcano.
(you didn’t specify “best” at what, so I took the subjective route. I think GeoLoco would agree with my assessment)
Ayup, as they say in New England…
What about yr best all time webcam?
I like this’n:
http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/7755
Naughty, naughty.
These two should see something when the plume goes high:
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/jokulsarlon/
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/hekla/
Thanks for the links Junior 😀
I’m curious… Who’s yr senior?
Oh, he’s around here “somewhere”, or everywhere.
or chasing non-erupting mountains with his camera 😉
Junior Islander had a senior Islander 😉
And this one if it’s very high 😉
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/ASH/ICELAND/index.htm
we have to remember that all of these low magnitude quakes are in the BigMac range, but still, something is on the move. It’s kind of like when your tummy is a bit stiff and sore.
Terminology background:
“BigMac” range. What is meant is that the energy content of the quakes is about the equivalent of the food energy in a cheeseburger.
At one time I was ranking quake size in the energy equivalent of different commonly available foods, such as cheese burgers and twinkles. This was to point out just how small some of the quakes were.
Sure or how energetic the foodstuff are !
Well, the tricky part is that “Calories” as listed on food packaging are actually “kilocalories.” calorie being the food energy to raise one gram of water by one degree C.
“One small calorie is approximately 4.2 joules (so one large calorie is about 4.2 kilojoules). “
Where do you see that?
UPDATE 4 – Number of quakes and intensty appears have increased. See gimsfjall for comparsion. Better to move slighly away, and start admit there might be magna pnetrating into the glacier. Like a cutting torch but drowned in own noise (boiling noise).
*Grimsfjall (need full time working dragon editing my typing errorors :=)
Closer view might help folks understand where the action lies
Some musik
It’s confirmed that the activity is increasing: http://www.dv.is/frettir/2014/8/16/jardskjalftavirkni-eykst-oflugasta-jardskjalftahrina-sem-vid-hofum-sed-i-thessu-eldfjalli/
UPDATE – Giggle translaed (but edited)!
*I usually do not do this, but easier for our readers have latest, from IMO*
“seismic activity has been increasing again up from seven o’clock,” says Kristin Jónsdottir, an earthquake expert at the Meteorological Office in conversation with DV. She said the earthquake swarm at Bárðarbunga, one of Iceland’s most powerful volcanoes, have been active since last night, now growing again. It describes the uncertainty by earthquake (specialists) earlier today.
“This is such a great activity. This is the strongest earthquake we have seen in this volcano since records began, “says Kristin.
– Flooding in Jökulsá – “The main threat right now is flood risk,” she describes in more detail how this scenario could work. “There is a dynamic of movement in the Earth’s (Magma) crust several kilometers and it is moving closer to the surface, and when she does she breaks the crust that is above it, and then have the earth itself. It’s these earthquakes we recommend when magma is moving and pushing everything around them. Deform the rock around it, “explains Kristin. “There’s really thick glacier over so when magma comes up and meets the glacier, it is the energy of the melt this ice. If this activity continues, the melting glacial ice there this water would not stop for very long, but there we go then something started. It is very likely that it will be down to the Glacial River in the mountains, “says Kristin.
——–
Kristin says it is not clear how the chain of events evolve if the magma reaches the surface. “I’m not sure what happens first, it may well be that it will first flood and other devices even longer. It depends very much on the circumstances and how powerful eruption is, where it occurs, how thick the ice is on top. He’s really misthick in this area, so it is everything where it occurs, whether it is 100 meters thick ice and 800 meter thick ice. All of this is important and why it is so important to tap earthquakes so we know exactly where they land, “says Kristin.
Yes, there’s a definite uptick in tremor from about 19.45, visible across multiple drums on the Webpage that Shall Not Be Named. You can actually see it more clearly from further away, where it’s starting from a lower base, e.g. ASK:
Mike
I really hope that is not a ring structure starting to show up.
No telling what is going on if that is the case.
Why is that bad?
Not saying that it is bad, specifically. Just that it makes guessing what it’s going to do quite a bit more difficult.
Ring faulting is usually associated with some sort of caldera activity. It could be a collapse structure forming, or it could be a roof being lifted like the lid on a rattling kettle. Given the GPS data, I would have to lean towards the latter.
The generally accepted method by which a dike works, is that the pressure in the “chamber” builds to a point where it overcomes the lithospheric stress and the sheer strength of the rock. As long as it can do that, the dike propagates until the pressure drops, or it broaches the surface. Since the strength of the rock is always less at the top of the “chamber” it moves towards the surface. If it fails to do so, it ends as a magma emplacement.
Ring faults, on the other hand, form along weaknesses in the rock that are caused by flexing the “chamber.” Having these weaknesses tend to offer less resistance to a finger of magma working it’s way to the surface since the rock is already fractured.
That sounds … a little bit frightening lol 🙂 What is that like, 15-20 kilometers wide?
I haven’t gone that far in looking at it yet.
If you want to get into the scary bit of it, find the size of that chunk of rock, then work out what amount of energy you need to reduce that to particles a few micrometers in size using the milling formulas, and you have an idea of what sort of energy you need to obliterate that lid. I’ve done similar calculations for an Indonesian volcano, and hit pretty close to what was reported when it went up. I came up with a Mag 6.0 quake for that one.
Haha, no thanks. I live on this god forsaken island and would like to sleep tonight 🙂
Well, to be honest, judging from the size of the block and how far it would be reduced… it’s an obscene amount of energy. So far, I haven’t seen any indication that this amount of energy is at play. Failing that, a finger of magma could squeak out one side of it and make a normal eruption. You know, glacial outburst flood, a bit of ash, some pretty pictures of the plume if it makes it to the surface. The majority of the time, that’s the way this sort of system behaves. That’s about what Grimsvotn did in it’s last eruptive action. It also showed a funky quake pattern, though my take on it was the finger came trucking over from Hamarinn, worked it’s way around to the south side, and went up from the old craters there.
In any case, enough to boil a Lobster in.
first, find your lobster.
I did, and he ain’t right. My wife loved to get lobster here in Pensacola, then shunned it when we were living in Jersey, desiring shrimp instead.
In both cases, what she preferred had the longest supply chain.
Now that we are back here on the Gulf coast, she doesn’t like shrimp anymore.
can you do time-intensity plot to see how much increase there was at 19:42 onwards,
but if not, thats ok.
I have to find my scripting to extract a usable timestamp, or recreate it. I’ve got it on a spreadsheet somewhere around here….
Thanks for you time, really appricated
*bows*
Resolution in days though, not hours, from IMO:
From http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/arg/png/bardarbunga_15d.png
Helps, but I was thinking on different path.
It also takes certain time for flood to reach nearest river metering station.
At Eyjo it took less than six hours from start to full flood, here an 12 hours guess or more.
That plot does indicate something interesting and/or major.
“not expert”
This is pretty much a fine grain version of panel #3 in Chryphia’s graphic from the requested time-stamp.
Now I think I am going to grill up a handful of shrimp and make a sandwich.
good idea *reaches out for glass of water*
Damned good sandwich. Sautéed the shrimp with onions and Old Bay seasoning. Sliced open a hoagie roll, had the shrimp on a bed of Jalapeños and Lettuce with Mayo.
I think the quakes are out-running my ability to keep up.
That meanderng movement from Hammarin towards Grimsvötn is interesting.
I mentioned it at the time. It made a diagonal towards the surface from deep under Hamarinn, then appeared to pass north of the craters then loop south into the grimsvotn crater complex.
Then… nothing happened. A few months later Grimsvotn went pop.
That was indeed my impression earlier today, but wanted others to bring in that – and explain what that can forecast. *I thought I saw Carl round the bend, but might be misstaken*
I think Carl is out on a beer quest. He may not be readily available.
I was handed “the watch” by Carl earlier ;- so do know, maybe his physic powers need more drowing in that sustance *not meant evel*
Oh I can put out enough scary info to get his attention, but it would ruin my creds at being measured and pragmatic.
No need, I have his phone number. He will be around later (I think), but he might have extended this special “Staff Meeting ö)
Interesting. Did you produce that plot, or is it from some bit of IMO that I don’t know about?
Yeah, made it with Dplot using the IMO website quake data.
update from IMO:
http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2936
“Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga volcano has increased. A seismic swarm has been ongoing since 03AM this morning, and near continuous earthquakes have been occurring since then. The depths of earthquakes in the present swarm are in the upper crust and their magnitudes are mainly around 1.5; a few earthquakes are of magnitude greater than ML3.
Long-term seismic and GPS data indicate that there is increased unrest in the northwestern region of Vatnajökull glacier, where Bárðarbunga is located:
Over the last seven years seismic activity has been gradually increasing in Bárðarbunga and the fissure swarm north of the volcano. This activity dropped down at the Grímsvötn eruption in May 2011, but soon after, the activity started to gradually increase again and has now reached similar level of activity to that just before the Grímsvötn eruption. Earlier this year, in the middle of May 2014, there was a small swarm of over 200 events and now the present swarm has already generated at least 300 earthquakes.
Since early June 2014, displacements at GPS stations around Vatnajökull (Hamarinn, Grímsfjall, Vonarskarð and Dyngjuháls) show an increased upward movement and away from Bárðarbunga.
Together, these two systems indicate magma movements in Bárðarbunga. At 15:00 on August 16, there is no unequivocal indication that magma has reached the surface.”
That was a lot for being from IMO.
Quite the opposite of a Stonetablet… I get that they are scratching their heads. To be honest, I understand them.
UPDATE 5 – 22:20 hrs
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/dyn.gif Tremour at closest IMO SIL station. Tremour seems be going thugh the roof. Ring structure pattern possibly detected in IMO data by our GL “powerplotter”. Tonight thie is decreasing wind forecasted, which might improve quake detection. Current (total) count now at 465
orange glow on hekla cam right now in the distance http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/hekla/
really? where? Maybe I need more shiraz but all i see is sunset, not a boiled lobster in sight. I have often been wrong though.
sunset hours
I can’t see it, Mattyray. I don’t think there is anything special going on at Hekla. Unfortunately we don’t have such good views for Vatnajökull… 🙂
Shiraz? Jeebous. It’ s a long way to that airfield. I haven’t thought about it since 1983.
yeah my mistake , got over excited :). been watching these tremors all day
nothing wrong with the odd boiled lobster. yum!
Are you done with the trouts, Bruce? 🙂
😥 – have an Icelandic langoustine instead.
This is the comment of the year, Geolurking.
Ring faulting in Bardarbunga, a sign of the caldera being lifted upwards (which GPS indicates too). If this is true, then there is quite a very large amount of energy underneath Bardarbunga and there is no doubt that an eruption will take place, at least a small one.
If the energy is strong enough to cause a M6, then Bardarbunga will erupt in all its caldera. Which is a VEI5 eruption, at the very least. Let’s remember how easily Bardarbunga had a M5 earthquake in 1996, but it only triggered Gjálp and then it erupted smallish a month later. A full caldera eruption would be bad. I could be the eruption of the century, in scale to a large eruption of Hekla, Katla, Askja or Oraefajokull. Not good. Lots of ash, bad for Iceland, and very disruptive for airlines in Europe.
If the energy is not strong enough, then some magma will erupt, in a smaller eruption, we would all have fun with a relatively “small-sized” eruption. Nevertheless much magma will be stored there and will eventually erupt in a very large eruption years or decades down the road. I wonder if this is the first mass intrusion which would lead, down the road, some decades later, to a repeat of 1477 Veidivotn eruption, but now probably opening the fissure towards the NE.
Geolurking said “Not saying that it is bad, specifically. Just that it makes guessing what it’s going to do quite a bit more difficult.
Ring faulting is usually associated with some sort of caldera activity. It could be a collapse structure forming, or it could be a roof being lifted like the lid on a rattling kettle. Given the GPS data, I would have to lean towards the latter.
The generally accepted method by which a dike works, is that the pressure in the “chamber” builds to a point where it overcomes the lithospheric stress and the sheer strength of the rock. As long as it can do that, the dike propagates until the pressure drops, or it broaches the surface. Since the strength of the rock is always less at the top of the “chamber” it moves towards the surface. If it fails to do so, it ends as a magma emplacement.
Ring faults, on the other hand, form along weaknesses in the rock that are caused by flexing the “chamber.” Having these weaknesses tend to offer less resistance to a finger of magma working it’s way to the surface since the rock is already fractured.”
“Well, to be honest, judging from the size of the block [15-20km wide] and how far it would be reduced… it’s an obscene amount of energy. So far, I haven’t seen any indication that this amount of energy is at play. Failing that, a finger of magma could squeak out one side of it and make a normal eruption. You know, glacial outburst flood, a bit of ash, some pretty pictures of the plume if it makes it to the surface. The majority of the time, that’s the way this sort of system behaves. That’s about what Grimsvotn did in it’s last eruptive action. It also showed a funky quake pattern, though my take on it was the finger came trucking over from Hamarinn, worked it’s way around to the south side, and went up from the old craters there.”
Well, I was trying to be realistic without trundling out the doom cannon. What could happen and what does happen usually don’t coincide.
Black Swans, by their nature, are not readily predictable.
Yes, realististic speaking, this could be a large intrusion of magma that would help a large fissure of Bardarbunga which is rather likely to erupt sometime this century.
If we check the eruption history of Bardarbunga, we can see how often large fissure eruption happen there, about once every 600 years, and a medium fissure, about every few decades.
I had a crafty after dinner snooze so I can join our Icelandic friends in spirit if not in body tonight. (\o/ waves to Irpsit and Islander. Hiya Lobster too:) Is Carl hiding behind his crystal ball somewhere between his dwelling and the beer shop? Bardarbunga has really taken offence at something he wrote 😀
I do hope there is nobody in harm’s way should an eruption really get going. I am worried there may be people caught by floods.
There really does look like a ring forming. Thanks Lurking for your plot
Not a lot I can comment on as it’s all being said already. Only time will unfold what this event actually is, but I have never seen so many quakes in that area. They are being picked up right across Iceland.
Hi Diana! As far as my lack of expertise about tremor graphs goes, what I see on the graphs tells me that there is an eruption taking place already. Question is: has it the strength to pierce the thick icecap? However, at this point, a jokullhlaup is inevitable – yet I could be wrong. 😉
This is the excitement: Looks like Hekla erupting.
Guess what it is? 😉
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/hekla/
Hail to the Icelandic moon!!!!! 🙂
Hugs and greetings Renato 🙂 I too think that there could be an eruption under the ice . That is why I am anxious for anyone near the rivers. Thank goodness though for the efficient Icelandic services who are so good at warnings and evacuations.
I would like to say ,before we get a spate of people asking if the moon’s pull could be triggering the activity……..a great big NO! 😀
Irpsit, a maybe silly question and OT but do the long summer days interfere with sleep patterns? Likewise the hours of prolonged night?To some extent I do tend to be very much more active in summer evenings and I do seem to be sleeping less.
No. 3. Inaccessible Island
Now that island would have been a good subject for a riddle! “Inaccessible” would allow some good wordplay, and the Inaccessible island rail, the smallest living flightless bird, could be referred to in the riddle. Sadly, it’s not the answer.
Back to the drawing board. 😞
And back…
Had a stunningly nice afternoon with Henrik in our Swedish VC meeting.
Now, time to catch up with Bárdarbunga… 🙂