El Hierro – I find Bobs death to be highly Exaggerated

Photographer: Primoz Jakopin. Stunning image from inside an old lava tube, that today is a tourist cave. This is most likely how Bob feeder tube looks like.

Once again Bob has been declared dead, and proving everyone wrong.

Earlier today I noticed a marked drop in the harmonic tremor plot. This was interpreted over the internet to be a sign of Bobs death (again), the feeder tube being blocked up through collapse, and quite a few other theories.

What is actually happening (most likely) is that the high harmonic tremoring is gas being released from the magma chamber(s) that reside under the Tanganasoga central volcano and the adjacent Tinganar fissure. As the pressure builds up, it reaches a critical level, and start to push fresh material and gas through the feeder tube to Bob south of La Restinga.

This has happened numerous times by now, actually so often that one can predict what will happen. What usually follows now is that Bob has an increase in activity starting about 5 to 15 hours after the decrease in harmonic tremoring.

The reason for so many making this error in judgment is that they miss the critical point. Bob is not a volcano. It is a volcanic vent far out on a feeder tube (probably and old magma tube left over from an old fissure eruption). The same types of old lava tubes can be found around the entire island, both above ground, and out under the water. So, judging Bob from what is recorded at CHIE station is not a good idea. Anything showing up there is related to the magma-chamber under Tanganasoga and Tinganar. So, there is first of all a time-lapse between the tremoring and Bob due to travel speed from the chamber to the vent of Bob. Second of all, Bob is a safety valve from the chamber per see. And as such has distinctly different traits than a normal volcanic eruption.

Being that as it may, Bob has now matured as a volcano, and found her rhythm. And the current behavior will probably continue for quite some time. If nothing drastic happens we can expect Bob to stay in action for at least another month.

I often get questions about the possibility of a new eruptive vent opening up at Tanganasoga. I see this as highly unlikely as long as Bob is active, this due to Bobs function as a safety pressure relief valve.

What would then be the likely signs of a Tanganasoga eruption on the way? Well first of all that Bob disappears. If Bob had been quiet for a few days, and we still see high tremoring, and a return of numerous earthquakes, then I would suspect that the feeder tube leading to Bob had been blocked, and that the risk is increasing of an eruption at Tanganasoga due to pressure build up. One should though remember that a lot of other possibilities could be at least as probable. New Bob even closer to land, an eruption close to La Restinga (not so likely due to the tube probably not going under the town, or another of the old lava tubes replacing Bob as relief valve.

I just want to say that you should not trust any rumors about Bobs death. And I would also like to say that we really should need new bathymetric imaging of Bobs volcanic cone. We need to know how close she is to the surface. There are too many rumors right now.

UPDATE

Image: Gloriously liberated from IGN. Signal clipping earlier today.

The tremoring has picked up again, to levels not seen for over a month. Earlier today we had signal clipping for period, so do not be surprised if the signal is rescaled again.

As I wrote yesterday that activity at Bob would pick, so has happened. It seems that Bob today is mainly producing a lot of tephra or grained pumice. So far I have not seen any pyroclasts bobbing about, and no steam. But the water is highly discolored (large stain), and there seems to be unusually large amounts of gas coming up to.

And this time the tremoring is increasing while Bob is having an episode of high activity. My guess is that this is due to new material having arrived, this is surmised on the activity of low frequency harmonics on several stations indicating a deep source. So, I would definitly say that Bob has time left before closing shop.

CARL

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321 thoughts on “El Hierro – I find Bobs death to be highly Exaggerated

  1. Carl, thanks for the update, I was just going to mention that I don’t think I have seen that high amount and extent of discolouration in the water before. Your explanation makes good sense to me and I can’t help feeling that Bob has a lot of surprises yet for the authorities. I am so glad that people on here doubted, as I also did, that Bob had died before Christmas when he had a rest. I couldn’t believe it then and it is great to be proved correct. Did the authorities REALLY believe it I wonder or was it just convenient to say so. If they really did believe it I would be worried for the future.

    • As I have said before about the authorities in question.
      They are not that good at volcanoes to begin with. Their greatest worry is about landslides happening. The equipment was initially mainly targeted at the possibility of a new landslide happening at El Hierro.
      Now they have corrected this, but they still only show the landslide data (GPS), and one SIL-station. I would also not be surprised if they have employed a volcanologist, and they have started to take in foreign consultants to help. Which is good.

      So, to answer your question. Yes, I seriously think they believed that Bob was dead or dying in December. And I think this was a rather humbling experience for them to be proved wrong. We should note that other volcanologists and experienced volcanobloggers thought the same.
      Although there are no volcanologists commenting on here (as far as I know, even though I have one suspicion), together we make a fairly decent one, and we collectively do not miss much. So together, after all the commenting, seem to come up with a rather good concensus of what is going on.
      Wonderfull with loads of commentators and comments.

    • Yepp, I just updated the old post, since it was just a recap of the changes, but still nothing really new to report.
      I have done the same mistake many times myself! 🙂

    • Yes, Bob is rather ashy today.
      I would love to see stain pictures today, hope that the chopper is going there today.
      No, or few pyroclasts though.

      • The stain pictures from yesterday also were great. A lot of gases and ashes must be ejected. The flower-like pattern of the stains center keeps me wondering what the eruption looks like underwater. I do think it looks like this – with the only difference that the “branches” do not rise above the sea surface:

  2. Just posted on Avcan FB?

    Henry and members of AVCAN; last night I copied a coseja of a book that many will know, and I see that you can have relationship with things that are happening:
    Bernabé Moreno Ramirez copy: “before an eruption in the region sumital of the volcano Kilauea swells (tumescence), creating a structure of lifting circulr.” This occurs as a result of the entry of magma which rises through the duct circular in the central reservoir. The pressure of the magma increases deforming and lifting rocks overlying in more than one metre. Finally, the resistance of these rocks is overcome and occurs the spread of docks to the top of the volcano or inject laterally within the rift zone. In fact, the majority of the magma is injected laterally and can flow more than 40 km. through ditches to rash in the form of lavas from the flanks of the volcano. As the magma is extracted from the reservoir, the internal pressure of the diminish, the upper part of the building undergoes a variable subsidence. “In some cases, the rocks that form the roof of the reservoir collapse widening the caldera that forms the Summit of the volcano” SPARKS, R.S.J. MARTí, j. and spider, V. (1993): the current volcanology. Madrid, CSIC, page: 34.
    11 Hours ago
    Then I did an aprecicación:
    that is why I think that spoken both Henry the other day of the circular shape of the earthquakes in the interior of the island and spoke of that required both gravimetry and magnetometry etc, to understand if there is something well or not and why he also commented that it would have to ask if we have dikes, camera or what…
    11 Hours ago
    What do you think?

    • Avcan FB Copied

      Bernabe… want to tell you… no more data can make a Bible of hypotheses based on few data have whoever to the believe and which not, because that… not us who have to say, but those who are managing is rash for the safety of all Islanders and Canaries. So that you understand this writing I’m going to leave a link very didactic process, then entenderas of that need more GPS data, Inclinómetros, gas, gravimetrias, magnetometrias, etc…

      (http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/howwork/subsidence/inflate_deflate.html(Enrique)

      • Enrique, thank you. This came to story because there was talk of advice to foreign experts and I said that there were many national experts who knew full well what could happen. The part of the chapter the copied so that would be that there were many scenarios studied already… The eruption of el Hierro, comparing with this article of the USGS and the part of the book, increasingly is resembling more “of the manual”; Although all we have caught a bit with an open mouth no background on the island… I wanted to look to be parallels with other cases, but then they do not exist, such that I am very aware of this and I have no authority to speak both of this… What disturbs me is that it belongs, outside your Association and Yes you have the necessary data, don’t say anything.

    • Mornin’ Judith and all,
      That sounds pretty close to what’s been happening. I think that the Hawaiian system is a useful comparator for the Canaries, remembering that they are more active generally. This is because the mantle plume is more powerful and they are close to a subduction zone, so the plate they are on is moving faster. (I’m sticking my neck out here 🙂 )

      • No, the difference in plate movement is not differing much between El Hierro and the Canaries. The MAR is rather uniform in its speed.
        On average the movement speed for the pacific rifts are moving faster.

      • schteve says:

        “This is because the mantle plume is more powerful and they are close to a subduction zone, so the plate they are on is moving faster. (I’m sticking my neck out here)”

        Eh? Dunno if I would call 3600 km “close.” If you have a closer one I would appreciate the name or coordinates. (3600 km to the Cascadia SZ, 3700 km to the Aleutians, 6100 km to the Japan Trench)

        The spreading rate at the Pacific-Nazca plate is about 75 mm/yr (per flank, 150 mm/yr total) and for the MAR at about 23°N is about 12.5 mm/yr per flank (25 mm/yr total).
        Global Tectonics 3rd ed

        As for it being more powerful… considering that what is actually driving the Canary Island volcanism is not clear, I have to agree. Hawaii is the epitome of hotspot volcanism. Very clear, very defined. Not so with the Canaries.

      • I believe the magma composition is supposed to be different. The Hawaiian system and the Canaries are not exactly the same.

  3. I¨m agree with Carl about the last seismicyti was pressure related.
    But who was 1st the egg or the chicken?
    Are we talking there are randomize entries of magma or are we talking when there is some blockage the pressure feeds the microseismicity or seimicity making able news entries of pressure and magma feedeing eruption?
    My guess or my bet is the last option a feedback or pressure related as said Carl.
    My main doubt in this moment is if the actual spikes are showing us water reaction with lava fragmentation. If I saw the tiny lines spikes over the amplitude and the ashy brown colour my guess is this is dued by water reaction. In this moment with a good ration magma/water (showed by the continuos spark) But we are watching this ashy brown colour and we are watching too the green colour typicall of the gases of the own eruption… It seems each diferent hole is making diferent things o diferent eruptive phases…
    It would be very interesting when we saw the scientist´s flight to point above the sea surface and recognize what points of the volcanic building are making each thing (we had some vents and a fissure with emissions or fume).
    Instead my bet of future it does not mind it the actual situation is dued by the own eruption or it is dued by water reation when the actual eruptipe activity had some blockage then microseismicity or seimicity will bee shooted (pressure related) and eruption will be feeded.
    Feedback or pressure related.
    As Carls said inside this phenomenon all is one.

    • I even have an addition.
      First you have magma arriving up via the the hotspot mantleplume, that one increases pressure, then gas release building pressure, pressure being released by pushing more material towards Bob (that could, or could not be partially blocked somehow), Bob has an active period, pressure lowers, new magma comes up and it all start again.

      It seems like Bob is erupting at the exact same speed and volume as the incoming magma. That is supported by the fact that known GPS values are remarkably constant.
      This is what make me believe that we could be in for a rather long eruption, because it will not end before the arrival of new magma ends.

      I hereby dub this a “Pressure Equilibrium Eruption”.

      • Oh my…
        I just unintentionally dubed a type of eruption into PEE. Well, it is easy to remember at least. Sorry all.

  4. earthquake-report

    January 17, 2012 By Armand Vervaeck

    Earthquake overview : Strong coastal ? earthquake. We call this earthquake dangerous because of the uncertainty of the epicenter location (20 km difference can be a world of difference).
    “I have Felt it” Reports –> see below + Let us know “how you have felt this earthquake”
    To read the full story as it happened, we advise our readers to start at the lower part of the page (earthquake data).

    We are currently collecting data from this earthquake – we will be back asap

    Keep this page open or return regularly as we will be back with more details when they become available

    – Update 14:28
    USGS theoretical calculations are expeting a VI (strong shaking) MMI for 16,000 people (mainly the population of the peninsula)
    – 302,000 people will endure a moderate V MMI shaking and 4.7 million people a light shaking.

    – Update 14:25
    EMSC reports a magnitude of M 5.6 at a depth of 67 km
    GFZ : M 5.7 at depth of 45 km

    Strong coastal earthquake. We call this earthquake dangerous because of the uncertainty of the epicenter location (20 km difference can be a world of difference).

  5. Congratulations to Volcano Bob, s/he is 100 days old today! That makes this eruption Number 2 of all Canary Islands historic eruptions, even those with multiple events. And on that note I must leave you all and go to work, will check in later, of course. ¡Go Bob!

  6. hahahahha

    You said Go Bob and tremor is increasing x3
    http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2012-01-17&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2012&Mes=01&Dia=17&tipo=1

    With this increseased tremor if it was dued by water reation we only will see ashy tinny stain and perhaps bubles of water vapour no too much hot. Materials fragmentation.
    If it was dued by magma and perssure gain without water reaction then we might see big stones.
    My bet is the 1st option.

    • The tremoring is not caused by water.
      Why?
      CHIE does not measure the tremoring at Bob. So unless someone has drilled a 10km hole down under Tanganasoga and is pumping down water this is not hydrophreatic tremoring.

      • Don´t make me put you a Carracedo interview… hahahhahaha.

        Well. I´m going to do it.

        “La erupción entró en fase terminal ese día (8 de diciembre), se agotó hace ya bastante tiempo. El poco tremor que observemos ahora se debe a la vaporización del agua al entrar en contacto con lava caliente”, explica uno de los mayores expertos en la volcanología canaria, Juan Carlos Carracedo. Ese fenómeno podría durar algún tiempo, según este investigador del CSIC, que recuerda que tras la erupción del Teneguía (1971) el centro del volcán se mantuvo por encima de los 300 grados durante 15 años. http://www.lavozdeasturias.es/ciencias/volcan-hierro-echa-dormir_0_617938286.html

    • That is actually an interesting quake, it is one of the few lately that has nothing to do with the pumping at Helisheidar. Also, the trending follows the Hengill volcanic fissure. So far there seems to be no tremoring, but that can be hidden in the wind.

        • Yes it is interesting, but I am not to sure we should put a lot into it.

          Tuesday
          17.01.2012 13:13:12 64.147 -21.092 6.2 km 0.3 31.17 9.3 km NE of Hrómundartindi

          First of all it is of low probability (31.17), and secondly it is very weak (0.3).
          But it is a bad spot though. If they are stronger and better located I would say it could be troublesome some day in the next 100 years or so. 🙂

    • That is nothing that has anything to do with either a volcano, nor anything seismic.
      Some idiot making a stir, that is all.

      • I agree Carl. if you watch the people walking about, they are not apparently stopping to look about them, or showing signs of panic or concern. If a human or animal hears a strange noise that filled the whole air around , the natural thing to do is to stop, assess what direction the noise comes from before making a decision to take flight or stop and fight!!
        Therefore the noise is made in an enclosed space out of earshot of the people outside!!
        Also there would be many reports on you tube of people making recording on their phones ,even in a country where ownership of a phone is for the few. When the volcano in Chile erupted last year there were several recordings from those with cams on their phones. Also you heard the exclamations of fear and anxiety from those in the street near the camera.
        I think we will get many of these sort of contrived reports until next December 31st!!!

        • There are many reports from around the world. However on many of these reports the sounds are suspiciously like someone blowing into a tube or a bottle. I don’t believe for one minute the sounds come from “heaven” as one report says.
          Certainly they sound mechanical and not what I could call volcanic or seismic, I think a case of copy cat reports.

      • Sounds a bit like a steam whistle not quite opened. When we came out of a maintenance period, they tried the whistle and shot rusty condensate water all over the flying bridge and fresh paint. It sounded a bit like that ad the line cleared and it actually started to work.

  7. Off the wall question
    is the possibility of the mar in Iceland doing a bit of opening a possibility
    I am not a doomsday nutter just exploring the possibilities that lie outside the box

    • It happens often.
      Many of the volcanoes in Iceland are rifting volcanoes.
      These are the ones coming to mind right now:
      Theistareykjarbunga, Krafla, Askja, Bardarbunga, Grimsvötn, Katla, Hengill, Krysuvik, Svartsengi and Reykjanes. The latest to erupt in a rifting eruption was Krafla. The latest Grimsvötn eruptions was not rifting eruptions.
      It happens now and then, no big thing.

  8. Carl

    I did watch it and there was a broadcast from the news in Costa Rica it seemed to be genuine and not a hoax thats why I posted it ?

    • It says on the video its not noise from any seismic movement or volcano they are asking what possibly the noise could be?

    • I meant that the entire thing was odd.
      First of all, the language… Second of all, the title and using apocalypse sound as a name of it? Then, the actual noise sounded exactly like a subway. That noise has nothing to do with a volcano, nor anything seismical. You cannot hear those things at those frequencies. Think about Bob, the magmaseismics there are between 0,0259 and 1,2Hz, that is 20 to 80 times lower than what is possible to hear.

      Hoax, clear hoax. They could probably have fooled a gullible reporter, but that does not make it any truer.

      • Listened to it again. It reminds me more of distorted traffic or building noise – I’ve heard something similar in London but can’t immediately place it but it was certainly nothing to worry about.

  9. The volcano of La Restinga expected record-breaking 100 days of uninterrupted!

    January 17, 2012 by Jose Luis Barrera Morate | 0 comments

    Nothing to think that the eruption of La Restinga would last so much, and he still has. All historical references that were of the eruptions have been overtaken Canary by far!
    Since the eruption began on October 10, forecasts pointed to a length no greater than a few weeks. Before any decrease in the tremor, scientists announced the cessation of the activity. This has been happening until today, fluctuations of greater or lesser activity (mainly tremor) but the volcano continues. No one dares to say when the eruption ends. The geophysical survey can not determine the status of the magma chamber and characteristics, to the great disappointment of technicians and scientists. There is what you get. Detected only in the eruptive area, a very strong exhaust reaching the sea surface in front of La Restinga, as can be seen every day, and it is said that the crater is 150 m deep. We look closely the data of the 5 th and last campaign by the oceanographic ship Ramon Margalef, to clarify the depth of the issue. That fact is very important to assess the danger of it.
    The volume of gas that is emitting from the beginning is very high, which contrasts with the progressive reduction (almost absence) of emissions on land, according to data from ITER. It’s as if all the gas is concentrated in the area of ​​eruption. The decrease also of seismicity, although some earthquakes occur in areas of long ago that the attention is focused solely on La Restinga.
    Two thirds of the world’s volcanoes are underwater. On this island, the terrain constructed by submarine eruptions have more volume than surface. The current eruption is not unlike what might be expected to know the total morphology of the island, it is contributing to the growth of large underwater ridge (35 km in length) which extends towards the south-southwest from the peninsula of La Restinga . It is not unusual or exceptional. Sometimes the output characteristics of bubbling volcanic material that happens every day, suggests that, at any time, a rash with certain characteristics subaerial, although not with the degree of classical surseyanas.
    Generally, emissions arising from volcanic islands are quite ephemeral submarine in the world, as are formed by unconsolidated pyroclastic character. This loose material is easily eroded by marine dynamics, as has happened in many eruptions. In the event that there has been a long hydromagmatic eruption phase, the island is formed palagonite tuff cones comprehensive long resisting erosion. If there has also been issuing lava and emission lines (dams) through the cone, the frame generated is highly resistant to sea, the latter case is the Roque del Este in the archipelago Chinijo (Lanzarote), a good example of what could happen in La Restinga, in the unlikely event of the emergence of a small island.

    • BoB’s got a long way to go to make number 1…
      I suspect; if one includes markers such as Harmonic Tremor (and we can only guess) that the Lanzarote eruptions of the early 1700s were the longest continuous historical event in The Canaries…6 years I think.
      Go Bob 🙂

      • “forecasts” re. the duration time of an eruption just are not (yet?) possible. The Japanese volcanologist e.g. said (if I heard and interpreted this correctly) that they just have experience with observing and analysing submarine eruptions with a duration time of up to two years. He can’t say neither if Bob will stop tomorrow or after 2 years (or even 10 years) of eruption. Krafla in Iceland, a similar, but subaerial volcanic system with a tendency to fissure eruptions – like Bob is one – had a 10 years eruption, that went on and off from 1975 to 1984.

  10. If David Copperfield could vanish the statue of the Liberty during a few minutes, Pevolca could vanish a volcano during 100 days…
    The magical blanket of the Lord of Rings is a cloth for the spanish policy.
    Congratulations to Mr Paulino Rivero President of Canaries and congratulations to miss Blanco.

    • How does he do that….Carlos thank you for yet another really brilliant contribution to this blog ..where do you find all these videos.. by the way, your englsh is incredibly good…. have you been studying langugage as well as volcanos….

    • No Hierro data…

      MAS1 Maspalomas Maspalomas Spain 27.76 -15.63 197.3 AFRICAN

      (Grand Canary)

      LPAL La Palma Roque de los Muchachos Spain 28.76 -17.89 2207.0 AFRICAN

    • In my opinion the stain has come closer. But, if you watch it for some time, you see that it changes continously. I think only helicopter or satellite pictures can give outcome.

      Tonight and yesterday night I have been staring into the black water in order to see restingolitas. I saw several very weak lights (more yesterday than today), some of them occuring more times at (about) the same place. I will put one of the videos here in a little while so you can tell what you think about it.

      • From yesterday night, as the lights of the pier were out:

        I see several (very weak) lightening spots at about 2/3 of the height of the picture and about 1/3 from the left side. Also some at other places. Enlarge and look at 0:15.

  11. In the press conference last week with the guy from Japan, one of the reporters asked what would they need to see to declare the situation with Bob over. The answer was no activity of any sort, no stain, no raised emissions, nothing but a return to pre July 2011 situation for at least a week.

    I don’t know who it is that keeps declaring Bob as dead, but they obviously haven’t been liasing with their man at that press conference (I forget his name).

    • Sadly I also forget his name, which is silly since he is one of the top ten volcanologists on the planet.
      Nameless or not he is absolutly right in all aspects. Not any wonder about that since he knows his game.
      Only way to say that it is dead would be that. And then it could still erupt again. Never ever count out a volcano fully.

      • Hi Carl
        The name is Kenji Nogami.
        I looked up what he did in the past few years.
        Apparently he is a geochemist specialist of gases analysis and their meaning during an eruption.
        Did you look at the 2 hours long conference on youtube ? I looked thru it but I cannot manage to get the sound…
        To summarize what I have seen he presented some interpretation of the colors of the “mancha” correlating it with chemical composition of the precipitates (ratio of silica/aluminium/iron oxides)

    • Sorry forgot to say the increase was at CHIE. I have looked every now and then at the web cams, but have not spotted anything.

  12. To:GeoLurking

    Dear Sir,
    The Takeshi Sagiya’s GPS data from El Hierro is not a public data and is related to a research project in progress. I would appreciate if you can delete the videos based on this information which it has been taking from Takeshi Sagiya web page without his permission. Thank you in advance for your collaboration.
    Nemesio M. Pérez (Scientific Coordinator INVOLCAN)

    • FYI…. Anything published on the web is in the public domain.

      No passwords were compromised, no firewalls were breached. If it’s not behind a firewall or secured, it is not private.

      I’m yanking the vids in a few minutes anyway since it is pretty obvious that INVOLCAN wants to control the message about what you, the public see.

      Best of luck citizenry of El Hierro… you’re gonna need it.

      Note to all, the GPS data was stale anyway.,. no great loss.

      • Hey Lurking, maybe I am taking things the wrong way, but to me Nemesio Perez comes across like a control freak. He has made himself look pretty bad.

        • That’s why I feel for the people of El Hierro. Until now I just figured is was some idiot bureaucrat. Now I think these guys are actually out to harm people.

        • It’s all about papers. Safeguarding their interests. I have read some of this scientists’s work. We probably all have.

      • Hi Geolurking
        I can’t believe it !
        The guys who don’t disclose much information whatever and have created a feeling of fear on El hierro ask to remove some of the only source of information supplied by volcano enthusiast ?
        Must be joking.
        Keep up the good work !

    • I’m also sitting here discussing this with a professional contact that I know … and the question of “why now?” comes to mind.

      All the GPS vids that I had showed something … ‘not nice,’ is going on under Tanganasoga’s north slope.

      Is it because I am curious and searching for thermal anomalies?

      Dunno, time will tell.

      • Whatever might be up. Dont take it to heart. We here appreciate very much what you are doing, and i dont think anyone could do anything if you use public data. This secrecy is really getting ridiculous.

    • As you often say, you just plot data. It’s just a representation of what is published. You have no “interpretation” of what this data means in your videos. On can look at data in a table, or at the same thing in form of a plot. Nothing bad about that. And M. Pérez “would appreciate” and thanks for your “collaboration”. There’s no threatening or anything. He’s well aware of the public caracter of the data. It must just be that people understand the data better when they see them represented in your plots, and so they ask questions and he finds himself disturbed while trying to make his job.
      But M. Pérez, doing your job sure cannot consist in saying that everything is fine living on an active volcano. No need to make people panic, but a volcano means potential emission of lethal gases and considerable reshaping of the local morphology, which might affect life on this spot of earth in an unsuitable way for the residents. You sure do the best out of the situation, and I can’t imagine GeoLurking’s plots really stand in your way for doing your job correctly. Just explain that he represents data, and that interpreting this representation needs knowledge and experience that only professional volcanologists have. So everyone is finally asked to listen to the statements of the specialists. There’s no matter if besides you find some interested trying to interprete things on their own as we know that the final word belongs to the competent authorities.

        • In fact I always thought that everything points to a Tanganasoga eruption. It came out more clearly when the chugging began some weeks ago. From the beginning on we had some talking about the possibility of magma rising and finally finding a way up through the old pathways ans so on. Then came Bob, which effects are the clearly unpredictable element in the whole stuff. The “valve-effect” can be so massive that it “replaces” the eruption that was preparing, as it could only make it last longer until the bang on the island happens. I was even called a scare monger because I keep stating that living on an active volcano is a bad idea… It’s like everything in life – as long as everything goes well, everything is good. But at the slightest step out of the right way, the whole thing might got towards sh… El Hierro is a volcano, and this volcano right now is active. Prediction on this kind of beast has got much better in the last years, but still has nothing 100%y… So it’s a matter of logic and prevention / precaution to be very, very carefull – becaus volcanoes are beautiful from far, but bring death from near. Just a fact, no scare-mongering. Those who can’t accept that have a problem my 4 year old daughter has solved: she knows that Hello Kitty is not a living animal…

  13. Now I ruminate.

    I have been apprehensive about doing so…. mainly because I did now want to cause an uproar over my non-professional and not geologist background.

    As I noted, in those GPS plots that I did, one common thing coupled them all together.

    Tanganasoga

    Very early in the swarm, I noticed a hole in the quake plot. I didn’t think much of it. It was almost perfectly round, and it extended down into the middle of the swarm that was there at the time. My interpretation was that it was tough old material, probably a remnant or artifact from the original El Golfo volcano.

    Isn’t interesting that most of the deformation from my IGN sourced lateral offset GPS plot… had most of the deformation on either side of that “non quake circular area?”

    Based on that last GPS plot (which did not use the buggy Sagiya data) my interpretation was that something… (probably magma) was at a shallower depth. This region is well into (or possibly above) the Jurassic era sediment. From experience, we know that this layer is much more silent than the oceanic crust, which seems to have no issue making a quake when the pressure is right.

    If I am correct… I would be a bit worried if I lived along that region of the island. I would be demanding that the officials get of of their lazy self obsessed asses (yeah, I said asses) and look into what is going on.

    If I am right, and they are hiding information… they are gonna get somebody seriously hurt. All it is going to take is for a vent to open up almost directly on top of that “chamber” and it’s going to take whatever flow is headed south of La Restinga, and push it right up the shortest path.

    Again, I caveat this with the fact that I am not a geologist. But I am a pragmatist. That is the logic of the situation.

    Not saying it’s gonna happen… but if it does, good luck.

    • I am reminded of the Twilight Zone adage, “To Serve Man” which was emblazoned on the cover of a book carried by seemingly benevolent aliens. It turned out to be a cook book.

  14. In a way, I feel a little bit honored. Sure it used Sagiya’s data… and if he wanted it private the why was he waving it on the internet like an appendage that he was proud of?

    I brought attention to it, and if you are waving your appendage at people, it’s pretty ovious that you want someone to look at and admire it’s ridgid beauty…

    Eh, no biggy. I bashed him pretty hard for the odd sequencing of his not very well ordered timestamps. I should have expected it.

    • Makes no sense to me. Is it still there? Perhaps, at the time it was public, it did not mean anything in particular to him, but now…interesting how they would worry about this now…perhaps you have beat him to something…we’ll have to read the paper to figure it out.

      This may not mean much to you, but I am proud of you. You did it for nothing, because you searched for the truth of it.

      • Even if I beat him to “something” he did the heavy lifting and collection of data. I respect that and so I pulled the vids.

        My only goal is to find out what is going on since the people in charge are either clueless or maliciously silent in order to protect (apparently) tourism.

        Nah, doesn’t matter if someone gets hurt…. keep them tourists rolling!

        • Well, it isn’t like you were publishing in a peer-reviewed journal. We are a motley crew drinking in a pub before a fire, discussing interesting stuff and throwing out ideas. As for the heavy lifting, i would like to know if his assistants or grad students collected that data. Not trying to demean anyone, but it is what you do with the data, the analysis, that counts. You know that. But, by all means, pull YOUR work. Maybe Carl can protect an area of this blog where they can’t read…but, that wouldn’t be the point, would it?

          Speaking of GPS data, I don’t see why deformation can’t be extrapolated from that. The movement of the GPS points would indicate something.

        • Yet another funny… as in “Hah!”

          My last stuff, the statics used in the “rapid gps” post…. only used IGN data. The same thin for my 750k cubic meter per day estimate… and my amateurish Mogi model. All from IGN’s gimped gps info. (Lateral offset only).

          In fact, I quit using Sagiya’s data almost two months ago… after he yanked the text files when I berated the sequening.

        • @Betty:
          This blog follows 2 sets of data.
          1. Swedish Law: According to Swedish law all data by all institutions of governmental nature is legal to do anything with and publish as long as they are attributed. Exception is if it is classified data. This data is not classified by Swedish Authorities. So, it is legal to publish.
          1. EU Law: According to EU law all oublicly available data by all institutions of governmental nature is legal to do anything with and publish as long as they are attributed. Exception is if it is classified data. This data is not classified by the EU parliament. So, it is legal to publish.

          I do not in any way care about other laws. Anywhere, or for any reason. So I can by King, God & Law publish what the hork I want, whenever I want. And Nemezio Perez can kiss his hairy arse!

          Information wants to be free! *Raising fist*

        • Well, I’m tickled. You did very well with what you were able to get, and the fact that he didn’t want to take your criticism is…interesting. Perhaps nerves are raw. Perhaps he didn’t want to be pre-peer-reviewed! Perhaps he did not want to give credit to an unnamed source. Who knows? What’s interesting is that a second scientist popped up to make the request. This indicates that YOUR work was discussed. I mean, really! They had to have discussed your conclusions. It also, unfortunately, might mean that they are suppressing any information about El Hierro that they can. Erik’s teaching aside, you can’t blame anybody for wondering what d-mned difference it meant for gps coordinates to be used by a declared amateur publishing in a bar. Unless they are confused about your amateur status. Or they are not sure. Which further tickles me! I love this place!

          Anyway, I don’t think that you have any legal problem. Your work will stand. We are still going to look at the donut hole. Can they stop us from doing that? No.

        • @Carl,

          Gawd, Carl, I thought you were hiding out from a gang of hungry sheep! I am not an expert on Swedish law; I think it is interesting that such a concern about Lurking’s plots was raised. The coordinates are probably not really at issue. It’s what he did with them that counts!

          Information will be free! *raises fist*

    • Uhm…
      Two small points here.

      1. I think that the data is not belonging to INVOLCAN. It belongs to the University of Nagoya.
      2. If it does belong to the INVLOLCAN it is by EU Law Public Property.

      Nemezio Perez is either way lying. As usual.

  15. http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2012-01-18&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2012&Mes=01&Dia=1

    Some mighty large Bob wobbles ….. tremors this morning to greet the new day.(Yes! I KNOW the tremors are not really from Bob …but well it sort of makes things easier to describe when activity is shrouded in mystery)
    Iceland is also quiet. A small swarm near or at Hengil. Askja area also has seen a small activity.
    Now for my Link Pick of the Day.
    This is a series of posts by the Men ( and women) who know. There are several Pages each dedicated to a possible type of doomsday scenario ranging from evidence (or lack of ) of Giant Asteroids to the tiny diatoms and viruses. (Most involve some form of seismic or volcanic activity so not really OT )
    This will either increase your paranoia or give you the healthier option of marvelling that the human race has made it this far in the complex systems of space and earth.
    I suggest you read Dr Erik Klemetti’s excellent article on Yellowstone (http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/eruptions ) before you go for the full Monty here !

    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/01/scientific-doomsday-scenarios/?intcid=story_ribbon.

  16. This one is curious and does not seem to be a hoax as the presenters are reporting live on the baseball game when they comment about the noise.

    Interesting.


    • A new tower block has been built in Manchester (UK) recently. Local people are complaining about the noise it makes. It makes weird sounds when it is windy. They call it the singing tower. The sound is very like some of the mystery sounds on you tube. That hollow made in a subway, tube sort of noise.

    • I have been in that indoor field. It’s in St. Petersburg fl. I guess during heavy winds it could make that sound. It was beautiful weather when I was there, and only heard the crowd. My mom caught a foul ball that game. 🙂

    • Now I understand what you are talking about:)

      If you read the post about Jan Mayen you will even find an image of what is causing the problem.
      When wind passes a large object like a high building, or lamp post, or even a phone line, it will create an undulating vortex on the back side. That vortex will be audible. It sounds like a howling or keening sound. The frequency will depend on speed, angle, and the shape of the object.
      The images are showing the effect when wind passes a high volcano and leave a trace in the cloud, so it is on a larger scale then what is happening for a building or a pole (or in the case of the stadium roof-girders), but it is the same.

      In the end, everything is simple physics, and most of the apocalyptic theories stems out of people sleeping through physics lessons.

    • I think this has been taken out of context. Obviously the commentators are talking about the noise – but the players seem to be completely ignoring it so it’s been going on for a while and they are used to it. It’s probably wind blowing through access tunnels or under canopies. The acoustics in large stadia can be very strange – but not supernatural.

  17. Morning Diana
    On the end of the you tube link of the baseball game thereare lots of other clips to look at from other parts of the world and have watched a few the one from Denmark cant have been the wind because there was no movement in the trees .
    The noise does seem strange though?

    • The Denmark sound is not a wind noise. It sounds more like an aircraft. Wind direction and expanses of water can make common noises sound uncommon. I am being the devil’s advocate here Judith. Some things cannot easily be explained but often there is a rational explanation. However I agree, there are many unexplained phenomena heard and seen in our world. This is what makes life so interesting and gives scientists a reason to exist 😀

      • Most unexplailen phenomena is though easily explained with a basic knowledge of physics.
        In this case I have looked at all the videos. And I can sofar explain and re-create all of the sounds without any problem.
        Remember that this is my line of expertise.
        I perhaps should say to Judith that I did my Ph.D. in wave propagation theory (a grand way of saying noise). I then worked for 8 years with sound devices.
        The first video is though a hoax. The sound i added in the vicinity of the video camera. The others are though real. But common things that occur.

        • In the early 1970’s I lived in Bristol. At about 9:03 every evening many people heard what I can only describe as a dull double “thump” like very distant cannon (not thunder). Eventually it was called the Bristol Bang and the government declared that it was all in our imagination – mass hysteria – and not to worry about it. Meanwhile the noise continued – it could be heard in a corridor roughly following the M4 motorway from Swindon to Bristol. Luckily scientists could also hear it and eventually came up with the solution: it was the echo of the Paris – New York Concorde breaking the sound barrier down the English Channel. Problem solved, nothing weird. People of Bristol very happy (Concorde was built there) with their special sound.

  18. I´d like to thank Joke Volta the yesterday´s pics with his new camera.
    webcams are very interesting to see stones, steaming or jacuzzi, but they are not good enough to enjoy with the colours of the stain on the sea surface.
    Pictures how Joke gave us yesterday are the 2nd better source after the chopper.
    Thanks Joke Volta.
    Make us enjoy with your new camera.

      • Well, since we are volcanophiliacs we would pretty much by anything volcanically related.
        So, if she does that I would be among the first to buy it.

    • It might not come as a big secret…

      My favourite Volcano is Hekla.
      For me it is the way to understand volcanoes in general since it pretty much contains all ways a volcano can erupt. No wonder really since we now know that it is an entire field of diverse and wildly different volcanos cramed into a small area.
      Hekla Field is a microcosm of volcanism.
      The other reason being that she still holds so many mysteries and there are so many things to learn there. And I must shamedly admit that the shear violence in her behaviour attracts me, I guess I love strong women to much 😉

    • I love El Hierro. Too much Jimmy Buffet, I guess. Love the mystery, excitement, and beauty.

      I am interested in two little volcanoes called Kick ‘Em Jenny and Kick ‘Em Jack, out near Grenada. Because I think they’re funny.

    • Hi Jamie, I have always been fascinated with volcanoes, but I am pretty new at it really. Each one I have been to has had something unique and beautiful. I walked through a Ice cave at Mt Baker, drove round Mt St Helens and observed the amazing blast lines, Monserrat was stunning, venting yellow puffs of gas. Crater Lake is beautiful also, and Yellowstone is so diverse. So in many ways each has held a different beauty. But I guess Monserrat takes number 1 for now.

    • Vesuvius – because of the archaeology, Pliny’s description and my father seeing the last eruption in the 1940’s. The fact it will erupt again. Just the whole package really.

    • Tenerife/Teide for me,
      It’s absolutely magnificent, 3700+ metres high, the evidence of what it has done in the past is all around you when you explore the Island, extremely steep ravines running from the peak all the way to the sea, the once thriving port of Garachico, now a tourist town since the harbour was filled by an eruption, the martian landscape of Las Canadas (pronounced Las Canyadas) National Park, the 12km wide scar of an ancient landslide called the Orotava Valley, the spectacular steep craggy Anaga etc etc
      The last eruption on Tenerife was in 1909 at Los Chinyeros lasting 30 days or so, fumaroles on the Peak vent SO2 (rotten eggs) constantly so Teide is resting but not by a long way extinct…

    • Hi Jaimie

      El hierro at the moment (of course)
      I pretty much like Montserrat also (was in guadeloupe when the dome collapsed in 2010 and I still have got some ash from the plume).
      I would like to see Vulcano too.

  19. To clarify legal matters further on any material published here.

    I am the duly appointed publisher of this site.
    I am a Swedish Citizen, and I have to abide by Swedish Laws. The Laws in Sweden are very strict on protecting what is Published here.
    It is free to publish any public data here as long as it is attributed to the sources.
    It is free to profess any view as long as it is a personal view, opinion or theory in here, with the only exception being if it is promoting rasism, promoting rasist organisations, or contain child-pornographic material.
    This protection by law also give me the express right to protect the identity of my sources. Nobody can ask me to hand out any names or email adresses.
    Anyone publishing anything in here, in comment, or as a blog-post, is automatically protected by Swedish Law since the only venue for a legal battle would be in a Swedish Court of Law.

    Please feel free to publish anything you wish in here. And feel safe about it.

    Carl

    • Thanks for the clarification, Carl. We always feel safe when you’re around 😉
      As far as poor Lurking is concerned, I’m sure he’s a victim of someone who feels very threatened and is trying to cover a very exposed rear end. And I can imagine a little jealousy in the mix here as Lurking has the intellect and data-juggling skill to take freely available information and derive something which is both informative and easily understood. So it would seem that they are jealous of your skills, Lurking, and are a little pissed that you’ve let their cat out of the bag!

      • Coincidentally, I know that they are using Lurkings plot internally…
        I have gotten the plots sent to me from a person that works for one of the 3 large institutions there.
        Perez is making an ass of himself.

    • Now I must have missed something here Jamie?

      You did not say anything as far as I know 🙂

      But I am though mystified at the meaning of the abreviation SOPA?

        • Yes, one of the most important political statements in our time. It was all over the news here in Sweden yesterday.
          I am happy that people have started to reclaim their freedom in other countries. It is important that information remains free.
          It is a horrible law that the US is voting on. I feel sad for the citizens of the US if it goes through.
          If the law goes through I will publish a post on how to circumvent it.
          Oh, and by the way, the Swedish part of Wikipedia is open for business. 😉

          *Raises hand silently*

        • That does explain the grey box on “Google.” Today is January 18th! Carl, you should add something to the header!

          31 sponsors that should NOT be reelected. The older I get, the more I dislike politicians. We are actually paying them to think this stuff up? I am so embarrassed. This cannot be allowed to pass.

          Love the “strong” response from Obama. Reason enough not to vote for him!

    • My comment was mainly about how Nemezio Perez of INVOLCAN is mistreating Lurking.
      But it also amply covers SOPA.

      SOPA = In Swedish Sopa is the word for Trash/garbage. I find this coincidence to be rather fun…

      • Even more fun…

        The other laws name is PIPA. In Swedish Pipa is the same word as Bong…
        So the US government is voting for laws named GARBAGE and BONG. Kind of explains a lot of things…
        *rofl*

        • Since Icelandic is pretty close to Swedish, the secondary meaning for us is also “to sweep”. But this time I go with the other meaning, it is more fitting.

          I have friends that also have moved from the US here for various reasons.

        • If so, it was not done on my part. I find it oddly coincidental when I went off and read another sit. According to iit, Sopa in modern Greek is “shut up” and Pipa in a declarative sence is to fellate.

          Hell, that’s better than the Chevy No va.

  20. Lurking you have my full support. As has been said, the data has been accessible to anyone. You have always stated your amateur status. You have used your skills and knowledge to open up discussions. on here. As you say “Why now”?

    I always say I am not a political animal. Progress needs differing opinions. However, I am horrified that one country is contemplating an action that can reduce and even stop my ability in the UK to have free access to public intelligence.
    I expect this sort of thinking in countries that historically, the free thinking world has viewed as enemies of Democracy , I would not expect to find it now in North America and Europe who lead the world frequently in action against despots, zealots and other cruel, inhuman regimes.

  21. I’ve been doing hard science more than I would like to acknowledge. I’ve also published a bit in peer-reviewed journals. I do know, any data published in internet, is free to anyone to copy, analyze and publish, as long as the source is mentioned. There is absolutely no need to ask for permission from anywhere, if the data is publicly availabe in internet (as Nagoya’s data was and maybe still is).

    Mr. Perez does not seem to understand volcanoes. So it is not any surprise to me he’s not understanding intellectual property or copyright laws either.

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