The volcano that was not and Weekend NtV Riddle

Photograph by Farm, Wikimedia Commons. Baekdu Caldera during the winter.

Photograph by Farm, Wikimedia Commons.
Baekdu Caldera during the winter.

The last few days Baekdu volcano and the Baekdudaegan mountain range crept up as a topic in the comment field. It is nothing unusual with that, after all Baekdu has had one of the largest eruptions in the last one thousand years. Some commenter’s also noted that it was inordinately hard to find any information on how the volcano came to be since it is so far from any subduction zone or well known mantle plume.

And here comes the problem, there has been surprisingly little research done on the volcano. Get me right here, there is nothing pointing towards Baekdu having the potential for a large eruption at this time, quite the opposite since it is such a newly formed caldera. Still, it merits scientific investigation due to it being a volcano at an unusual spot.

The closest I have come for an explanation is that it is an old subduction volcano from the time when Korea slammed into China, and that it is still situated next to an active but much slower fault line. Nothing seems to be pointing towards there being a plume under the mountain.

Another reason for scientific investigations is also that it is an active volcano with people living next to it. And as such it merits monitoring. Only problem is that there is no monitoring at the volcano. In 2011 North Korea asked South Korea and Japan for help with monitoring the volcano after an initial North Korean query to China got no reply. It was agreed that Japan would help with both technological and scientific aid, and that South Korea would use satellite capacity to monitor the mountain. Due to later political issues this has not come into fruition.

On this map it is easy to see that the Baekdu is situated on the ancient point where Korea slammed into China. There are several more ancient calderas along the border.

On this map it is easy to see that the Baekdu is situated on the ancient point where Korea slammed into China. There are several more ancient calderas along the border.

Here comes the rub. China did not even answer North Koreas request, a country they have held under their arms for 60 years. How come that North Korea had to turn to their southern neighbor and Japan for help in the first place?

The answer is both simple and stupid in equal amounts; I will get back to that.

A while ago I agreed to help a Chinese exchange doctoral student since he is writing his dissertation on a tangential subject to what I wrote my own about. Very friendly chap from Manchu and one day we were having a cup of coffee and I got talking about volcanoes and got into Baekdu since he came from the place. To my amazement he did not know it was a volcano. So, he googled it and found out that his ancestral home is pretty much next door to a honking large volcano. He was amazed that he had missed that so he called a friend back home. He did not know about it either, so the friend googled it and got nothing at all about Baekdu being a volcano.

It is easy to understand why the crater lake is called Lake of the Heavens...

It is easy to understand why the crater lake is called Lake of the Heavens…

From that we know one thing. The Chinese authorities does not want anyone locally to know that it is an active volcano, so much that they have suppressed Google from showing any information about it inside China. We should though not be surprised about that, China censors a lot of natural hazards from its own population for economic reasons. In this case the economic reason is spelled The Olympic Winter Games; in short it is Chinas bid for holding one of the games.

Even though the volcanic system is too small and fragile to contain enough pressure for a large eruption it is still not a good idea to play with lives like this. Any good mitigation and evacuation will be severely hampered when you first of all have to start off with telling people that you have lied to them up until now, and you know the population will not believe them the second time around either.

I hope that the monitoring will fall into slightly more sane hands with time. When even North Korea looks sane on an issue, then it is bad.

Update: Commenter UKViggen found an English only article published in China that mentions 14 years of Chinese monitoring. I could though not find any non-chinese confirmation on that monitoring station.


NtV Riddle (4)

2 points for each volcano … have a great weekend …

No 1 – Medic who might arrive to treat the fallen at Pinky Park in a timely manner. SOLVED Mount Baker

No 2 – Mendel, Hubble and Hertz to name but a few. SOLVED Craters of the Moon

No 3 – Stats model used to anticipate random effects. SOLVED Blup Blup Volcano

No 4 – Where my heroes go marching in … SOLVED St Mary’s Islands

No 5 – Named in honour of an 18th century explorer, naturalist and member of the RA of S. SOLVED Krasheninnikov

No 6 – Birthplace of a solitary dragon slayer.

No 7 – Dutch pole that could be considered mightier than the sword. SOLVED The Quill

No 8 – St Peter was left utterly devastated when Our Lord returned to Heaven. SOLVED Mount Pelee

Current Points Table:

14 – Alison 

 6 – Kelda,  Edward 

 4 – Frances,  Diana Barnes,  Talla 

 2 – chryphia 

 1 – inannamoon667,  Random Joe,  KarenZ,  mdatc 


240 thoughts on “The volcano that was not and Weekend NtV Riddle

  1. Next one will be the continuation of the Lakí series…
    Published on Sunday I think after the usual Friday post and brainwrecking frenzy.

  2. Hm, forgot to write that Baekdu is not the only volcano in the Baekdudaegan mountain range. which ones are active? Well, we do not know and we will not know untill there is active scientific research done in the area. There could be other “Baekdus” in the vicinity.

  3. Looks like Baedku ejected about 2/3 of Tambora at an estimated 96 km3 of ash and other stuff around 969 AD. An issue for Japan and Alaska which are both downwind.

    Other interesting part about the mountain, is that is is the Ancestral Home of everyone on the Korean Peninsula, with the Norks particularly protective of it. Kim Il Sung claimed it as his birthplace, further heightening the “ownership” by the Norks.

    • Which is why I fully expected a faux eruption there upon the last dictators death. A tunnel stuffed full of ammonium nitrate can make quite a show. He had damned near been blown away when that trainload of it went up shortly after his personal train had gone by.

      NH4NO3 is one of their main chemical manufacturing products. It’s dual purpose, both as a fertilizer and as a precursor to ordinance manufacture.

  4. “Tianchi volcano observatory ( TVO) was set up in July,1999. There was a permanent seismic station and 5 temporary seismic stations including Shuangmufeng (SMF) , Weidongtai (WDT) , Dongdapo (DDP) ,Qixiangzhan (QXZ) and Xidapo (XDP) stations at the beginning since then.”

    Analysis of Tianchi volcano activity in Changbai Mountain,NE China
    LIU Guoming1, YANG Jingkui 2, WANG Lijuan 2 andSUN Jicai 1
    1. Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano Observatory,Antu 133613,Jilin,China;
    2. Seismological Bureau of Jilin Province,Changchun 130022,China

    “The Changbaishan Tianchi volcano, located at the border of China and Korea, is the most dangerous dormant volcano in China, which has the risk of eruption in the future. Since Miocene the volcano had experienced numbers of eruptions, and it had also erupted several times in the Holocene period. The eruption of the Tianchi volcano in year 1014 to 1019 is one of the most violent explosive events of the world in recent 2000 years[1∼3].
    In order to monitor the activity of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano and evaluate its eruption risk, China Earthquake Administration (CEA), Jilin Earthquake Administration and other institutes have done some geological investigation and geophysical exploration, a tentative monitoring network was established in 1999, which included seismometer network, geodetic networks as well as geochemical monitoring network.
    “The geodetic networks of the volcano consist of GPS network, leveling network and continuous tiltmeter-strainmeter station in the cave near the observatory. The GPS network, consisting of 8 sites and established in 1999 (Fig.1), covers the major part of the volcano except for the southeastern side in Korea. From 2000 to 2005, the GPS network was surveyed 6 times on an annual survey basis. The tiltmeter station (installed in 1999) has cumulated 5 years data but was often interrupted by lightning during summers, and in summer 2004, the tiltmeter observation stopped after a serious lightning damage.”

    CUI Du-Xin1, WANG Qing-Liang1, LI Ke2, WANG Wen-Ping1, HU Ya-Xuan1
    1 Second Monitoring Center, China Earthquake Administration, Xi’an 710054, China
    2 Jilin Earthquake Administration, Changchun 133613, China

      • Nah, I think someone did not want to get burned 🙂

        Goddamn, who builds a volcanic observatory inside of the volcano they observe? Wise choice to move.

        • The first hand views wold be impressive, too bad no one would find out. Fried observers don’t talk much.

          • Nothing like waiting until the last minute. Range safety had their heads up and locked. That thing was gone as it left the pad. If you watch there is a slightly left ward wobble as it clears the tower.

  5. Disjointed rumination…

    Today, I skipped the Subway sandwich. The guy in front of me ordered like six different sandwiches and and the clerk was mentally loaded, so rather than watch the short balding guy hem and haw about what each one was to have on it, I took my slightly taller (also balding) self across the street for a burger. Since I needed tobacco, I purchased it at the counter of the convenience store. The young (like) lady told me it would be “Three Threety Three.” I smirked to myself and looked up at her. “Excuse me, did you just say “Three Threety Three?” She blushed and stated “No, I said “Three Thirty Three”

    Yeah.. sure you did. :D.

    Unrelated, other than being part of the days activities, I got my license renewed. On the plus side, I can still see, on teh downside, I don’t look any better in my picture. Less hair, more lines on my face, a more sunken appearance to my eyes, and a closer family resemblance to my uncles. Yee Haw. Had a short non hostile argument with my wife about the days not getting longer. “But summer just started last month!” My response, “That’s because they are stupid. That was actually the summer solstice and the longest day of the year. Don’t believe me? Go time sunrise and sunset… get back to me once you have proof I’m wrong. She capitulated on her position. The key to it being a non-hostile argument, was that I attacked the intellect of the idiot who had inferred that the days were getting longer, not her. I can’t blame her for being told bullshit… but I can correct it.

    The days will get longer, but not until after the winter solstice. Rinse, repeat.

    • I suggest that we gather all these after- hour- GeoLurking’s ruminations and gather them into a book.
      There’s always something to ruminate about, be it phylosophical, volcanic or about everyday issues of life. Bravo, Lurk! You are growing wise before growing old!

      • I agree Renato. A book of Lurking the Wise. Samuel Pepys Kept a diary of simple day to day life in 17th century London. It’s a wealth of historical eye witness accounts.
        How are you Renato ? When do you finish for the summer? Are you going away at all?

      • Dunno about that last sentence. A wise man would have done one more tour before retiring from the military. I was up for shore duty and could have probably made one more paygrade if I had applied myself. I took it in the shorts when I was assigned that last ship, and had only remained “not in trouble” because my LCPO had intervened and talked me into not doing bodily harm to the detailer when he was in the building. That was my core anger that prodded me into getting out. Dealing with the babbling Wardroom Rejects was the other. I thought pretty highly of the senior part of our command, and fully understood that they were trying to train the junior officers, but in instructor terminology, the words we use amongst ourselves… the JOs were a “box of rocks.” (In general it meant a class that couldn’t quite grasp the curricula) They are in a box (classroom), and they sit there, just as attentive as rocks, vapidly glaring back at you. Getting past that was the hard part, but once you did it, teaching them was easy. I generally discussed Vehicle Speed Radar in order to spark their attention. The auto enthusiasts always responded to that. I also took care to forewarn them that intentionally messing with the signal was a violation of the FCC rules and regulations. ($10K in penalties and up to 5 years prison under the regulations in force at the time). So, if any of them went out and tried what I discussed, they knew the ramifications.

        Situational Humor. One instructor, that had gone through training with me when I first went through the training, had done his sea time and was back teaching with me. The equipment that he was trained on, was the older tube based system, but I had managed to pick up the solid state version of the gear as part of my training. We had known each other for years, and had partied together back when we were both students. One day he came into the instructors area paranoid as all get out. It seems that he had emphasized a point and had smacked his pointer on the podium. The little rubber tip had come off, and parted a students hair, barely grazing the top of his skull and bouncing off the wall in the rear of the room. This was back during the timeframe of the Mereki drowning, and Navy Wide, procedural safety was the hot topic and many people were looking for someone to pillory as an example of poor safety. No harm no foul, no one got reported for it. But it was funnier than shit.

        Note: Mereki died in training at Rescue Swimmer School at a nearby base. In my course, we never put anyone in the water, though we did have them working on high voltage equipment. Years later, I had a student suffer an electric shock from an unenergized piece of equipment. (Wasn’t plugged in, and the batteries were dead… and it had a plastic case) They even sent an ambulance crew over and transported the student for observation. I and the incident got investigated. The best that could be figured, was that the girl had developed a static charge and had discharged to the table. Then played it to the hilt. (She had a reputation for trying to get out of training or class. This was the infamous “Psycho Kitty” that I have spoken about in the past. She was eventually dropped from training due to her shenanigans… and I gained a few more gray hairs in the process. It got to the point that I documented every action that I had with her, and annotated available witnesses in my entries. Some people just give you that feeling, and you can see it coming from a mile away. Her case was reviewed by others in my chain of command and they agreed with my assessment, so it wasn’t just be being mean. I sort of wish I had been at the separation screening to see what her lawyer {actually, sort of a lawyer, though some bring real ones} had to say about what level of discharge she would get. I’ve sat a few of those, and it can be quite entertaining listening to them torture logic. This is the board that determines Honorable, General, Less than Honorable etc. It’s made up of a Senior officer, and Junior Officer, and Senior Enlisted {for enlisted personnel}).

        The drop code that I had recommended for her was GFH. The unofficial colloquial meaning that we gave it was “Go the F Home.” Inaccurate, but it described the essence of what it meant in the long run. One of the other drop codes (that was never used in my course) was GFL. This code, for an enuresis problem, also had an unofficial phrase. I’ll let you figure out what it was.

  6. I have no grasp of the Chinese language beyond a few words, but it is enough to google for the chinese name of baekdu “长白山” (long white mountain) and “火山“(”fire mountain” aka volcano). And found lots of articles directly referring to the mountain as a volcano.

    Of course, I knew what to look for which makes it a whole lot easier than the other way around. Not knowing that Baekdu is a volcano in the first place gives you very little motivation to search for it, hence you probably won’t know about it.

    Its the same in Germany, really. Most Germans don’t know that Laacher See is a caldera stemming from a massive volcanic eruption less than 3 times older than the pyramids in Egypt. Instead they think that all volcanoes in Germany have been extinct for millions of years …

    • Massive? Laacher see was only a VEI 6. It probably won’t erupt with severity anytime soon. Considering how close to urban infrastructure the WEVF is, even a small eruption from a monogenetic vent is a big issue.

      • Well, actually “unimaginably huge” is more like it. Germans consider themselves safe and, if anything, would only expect a small, miniature eruption … certainly not one that would cover much of the country in at least a few cm of ash and threatening to crush roofs on houses for tens of kilometers.

        If the panicy reaction to the Eyjafellajokull eruption is anything to go by, volcanic eruptions are an absolutely foreign thought to people here. Hence calling a VEI-6 eruption in Germany “massive” is quite an understatement.

        • I beleive the Neanderthal thought that they were relatively safe also….

          But, I also think that the greatest threat would be from a new Maar.

          • I’ve been to that place and yes, a new maar (especially a big one) would be quite destructive. It depends on the precursors and on whether or not the place of the new maar could be localized beforehand. The area is relatively sparsely populated (by German standards – it’s still about twice the average population density of the USA), but if it ends up close to a town or several villages that weren’t evacuated … well it would be horrible.

            Then again, what is the chance of magma sneaking up towards the surface without a lot of rumbling and earthquakes in a place that hasn’t seen volcanic activity for over 10000 years and is exclusively monogenic. It’s a shame nobody was there the last time around, who lived to tell the tale and knew to write it down …

            On the other hand, another large eruption in the eastern Eifel could do all sorts of havok, just by sheer size of the tephra deposits and possible lava flows. It could block the rhine river (which is roughly where the next eruption should end up, extrapolating from previous eruptions) and it will be the end of the old city of Koblenz, without doubt. Now, you could spin this further and think about the river flowing into a collapsing magma chamber … or better not.

            In the end, a lot depends on how long it’s going to take this time to the next eruption and how much monitoring equipment will improve in the meantime. The existence of current magmatic activty seems to be undeniable, from the CO2 and cold geysirs in the area. But as we know, this doesn’t mean much in terms of predictiveness, given that this has been going on for centuries at the very least.

    • And some names of the same volcano taken from the link I posted above which could be used to search by: Mount Paektu (aka Paektusan, Changbaishan, Changbai, Baitoushan, Baekdu and Baegdu)

  7. Baekdu cannot be because of a plume. There is no trail of older volcanics behind it. It is surprising how it is not well-monitored and studied, considering its location and eruptive history. It had quite some activity before it became a caldera. It does need some time to repair, as caldera-forming eruptions are very destructive. It may be possible that information is being held out of reach to the public. You are right that they are most likely censoring it for economic reasons, but that won’t make the volcano go away.

    • datc…. good handle!

      I think that the curtailment of the volcanoes existence may be related to that whole “mandate of heaven” thing that prevails in Chinese culture. As long as no one is talking about the threat, no one can blame those in power for not mitigating the threat.

      Evidently Soman prefers the “Riddick” look, though he doesn’t carry the physique of the Vin Diesel “I’ll toss your ass out the window” persona.

      • I actually liked Riddick. It is one of the few times I wish they had done a part two of a movie…

        I’ve spent the day walking on a meter thick layer of one hundred year old soggy sawdust. If you have saw dust from pine and spruce and keep it soggy enough it wont rot. The layer was out on an island that someone had placed a mill on (now defunct).
        The cool stuff is that it was like walking on a sponge, it felt like being on a gigantic trampolin. Bad part is that it was tough going and I ruined my shoes.

        For some reason a guy wanted to buy a house on the island.

      • Well, there are actually two Riddick films. “Pitch Black”, and “The Chronicles of Riddick”. In Pitch Black, it’s the odd planet where the apex predator feeds at night, and in Chronicles, the Necromongers are invading planets.

        Rumor has it that a third one “Riddick: Rule the Dark,” Featuring Vin Diesel and the same director from the other two will be released in 2013.

        • I’ve seen Vaako mentioned in the third movie, but the trailer doesn’t show how he may figure into it. If you remember, Riddick inadvertently became the new Necromonger ruler by killing the Lord Marshall. “You keep what you kill.”

          • I have always wondered about the logics behind that phrase. I do not know if I would like to keep the corpses of the people I have killed around my apartment. People who are well dead tend to stink you up.

            Remember gang, if you are going to get stunk up by a corpse, bring a lemon. It is the only thing that will get the smell of old corpse off you. I have not dived during the last 20 years without one, and there is a reason for it. I think I will have that one on my tombstone, come think about it; “He brought his lemon”. Will make people wonder for the next couple of hundred years.

            (and yes, I know what the Necromongers meant with the phrase, I am just semantically inclined)

          • Probably a variation on “eat what you kill”… a common mantra among hunters. (see Ted Nugent) A mindset to not trophy hunt, but to actually kill for a reason in keeping with the nature of predator vs prey.

            For example, if I land a 35 pound Spanish Mackerel, you can bet your ass it’s gonna wind up being on a plate. Thems some good eats. Hang it on a wall? What on Earth for? Take a picture and toss that bad boy in the frying pan.

            Along the lines of stinky corpses. We were waiting to enter Jebel Ali and we were in a holding pattern waiting on our turn for the pilot. Forward lookout spotted a floater. Thinking that it would get us to the head of the line, we fished him out of the water. Turned out he had been missing for about a week. They put him just inside the windbreak next to the bridge. It provided shelter from view, lending a bit of respect for the dead. It didn’t get us to the head of the line, we still had to wait our turn. It was at this time that I really appreciated not being in the Engineering department. The air intakes for the main spaces was just aft of where he was stored at. Imagine that smell in a 120°F engine room.

            A ship that I was on before that, was involved in interdiction operations. Our station was in the Red Sea. One vessel that we had to do a visit and search on was called The Livestock Express. (might have been the company, it was emblazoned in large letters along the side) It was a sheep transporter. In the corner, were about 300 dead sheep that had died in transit. They couldn’t jettison them due to the restricted waters they were in, so they had to tote them a long until they could be disposed of. Talk about rank. As we orbited the vessel, you instantly knew when we were down wind. FYI, most of the Red Sea is a non dumping region. You can’t even dump the CHT system. Except for one little box that happened to be far enough from everybodies coastline to meet international regulations. Every so often, when our tanks were full, off we would go to this box so that we could legally pump and dump the tanks.

            This was about the time that saw with my own two eyes, one of the most horrifying sites I have ever seen. Due to the restrictions on the CHT system, occasionally it would clog up. The way that it is unclogged on a ship, is that that part of the system is isolated, and the line is pressurized with a firehose and what ever the obstruction is, is blown out with a hundred psi (or so) of saltwater. One time, the system wasnt fully isolated. I witnessed a large plume of “water” rising above one of the stalls. Fortunately, I was not the guy using it at the time. I did not know that a Sailor could screech like that.

  8. Nearly bed time…..Askja looks distinctly and interestingly wobbly tonight!

    Hekla strain is definitely onwards and upwards. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple of tremors in the area in the next 24 Hours. There again she may just keep quiet as per usual. I must admit I have a feeling she becomes unsettled when there is a real rifting episode and she is more affected by rifting than has been thought previously.

    • Askja is distinctly interesting. Seeing all those small shallow quakes at the upper end of the upper magmatic chamber was interesting.

      • I guess once we started Talking about Hekla the other day that She heard us and is now Starting a rookus of our Volcanocafe here, humor

    • Hello, Diana!
      I have just finished half of my academic duties for this winter (yes, that is “wintertime” in Rio, believe it or not). Still have one class going until August, because we were stupid enough to make a strike and must catch up with the lost period. Therefore, no vacations until December. 😦
      But I am glad that I’ll have more time to pass by for a coffee, so I hope, if the guys from the University of Michigan don’t call me back there in the meanwhile..

        • That is correct. Very interesting to watch. I think I will fetch snack and be right back 🙂

            • still falling … HEK current 15,000 units down …
              *I know Carl is gone to bed*

            • No other station is deviating to anything abnormal.

              Still falling, not as fast. Possible issue with the equipment or local event?

              No EQ’S either. Complexed so I am

            • No effect on other stations, likely too small an event for that.
              Seems be local event (could be Vatnafjöll giving in??), in fashion seen several times on the strain stations, except the hook at top of drop. That is like somthing was subject to force and then gave in. It could be Hekla, anyways close monitoring next few days.

  9. Way to go Peru. Aren’t you just super proud of yourself now?

    Why don’t you just go ahead and pave the whole damned country, I’m sure that will bring in the tourist dollars…

    Friken dipshits. (I mean that for the entire country, anyone who would let this happen to their history deserve the insult. With that sort of animosity towards yourselves, no wonder you live on a really active subduction zone. You two deserve each other.) In fact, you had better hope that there really is nothing to ancestral spirits getting highly pissed off.

    Either way, Karma is gonna get you. Enjoy the ride!

    Note: This is not the opinion of VolcanoCafe. It is my personal opinion, and I really really mean it. As such, this comment is subject to deletion should any of the Dragons find it to be too inflammatory.

    Caveat: I am one of those “backward” US citizens. We don’t have anything of comparable antiquity here in the States… at least not on that scale. I still hold a grudge for Union Forces burning my home town to the ground as they were preparing for the seige on Vicksburg. Maybe one of your neighboring countries could do the same for you in the future. Lord knows, you deserve it.

    Archaeologist Marco Guillén Hugo was in charge of the research and excavation of this site and reported to El Comercio that he had reason to believe two private building companies, Compañía y Promotora Provelanz E.I.R.L and Alisol S.A.C Ambas, were behind the destruction.

    Enjoy the extra PR guys!

    • Absoultely agree with you 100%. The archaelogy world has been jumping up and down about this for a few days now and I’m glad it finally got into the mainstream news. The sooner people EVERYWHERE realise that so-called “Developers” are only after their own profits the better. They are not ‘developers’ they are, more often than not, trashers. Even in a country like UK that is supposed to have all sorts of planning laws to protect the dense amount of archaeology and heritage buildings that we have, these people will do all they can to get round the system and plough through the lot. This includes what might be called the ‘living heritage’, the wildlife, plants and trees. Last year a man destroyed about a quarter of a Henge older than Stonehenge near Priddy in Somerset. He got fined and said he was sorry but that part is still completely destroyed. That barely made the local news let alone the national news. In my opinion these people should be banned from being allowed to own any land ever again as they are incapable of good stewardship.

  10. Happy 4th of July to all our friends in the USA. To save endless ruminations about why the British were defeated, thus allowing terrible things to happen to the poor colonial citizens in the new world, I will post this which may explain all. (Terrible things like driving on the wrong side of the road; Not being able to spell Honour, neighbour and colour properly; Destroying ship loads of tea and of course no King or Queen)…. Here then is the cause of the English downfall………

    (Apologies to any French friends who are here)

    • Nice one really, thank you.
      I am though more hands on, so I tend to do as many hours as possible stearing manually through high winds sitting outside. It reduces the amount of time a boat will broach.

      Another thing one can do when one has a lot of water is to set a storm ape. A storm ape is a triangular sail that you set instead of staysail. It flies freely making the boat travell straight with the direction of the wind. The I take a sail bag, fill it with things that float and throw in a 5 liter water bottle and put it on a rope behind the boat, also known as a float anchor. The idea is that it will help put the ass of the boat up against the waves. Then you go down.

  11. The last word that I have heard about the two girls that hit a condo was that they were in stable condition, according to their family the girls had both given them “thumbs up” through the window to their room.

    Based on news accounts, the weather around Panama City was starting to get bad, so the Parasail boat was starting to reel them in… when the line parted. This put them into instant free floating parachute mode… and I’m pretty sure they didn’t have any parachute experience. One hit a condo, the other hit a condo and power lines. One witness described it as “giant blue fireworks.”

    It’s gonna really sux to be the Parasail companies liability insurance carrier.

    Meanwhile, The area north of Panama City has gotten about 15 inches of rain over the last 24 hours, and I got very little sleep. Little hairy dog had a very hard time trying to calm down. Early fireworks during the day, then non stop thunder all night long. Dog was whining and caterwauling all night, trembling and restless. Yeah, he’s a small dog, but he’s a dog, with dog hearing. I bet he could hear thunder from all the way up into Alabama.

    As for the rain, it’s falling right on the low lands and Karst topology there. The Choctawhatchee river is probably going to be quite high, and all that sprucing up work at the Cowford boat landing is probably underwater now.

    • Thanks for the update. I saw the video on the news and it really is amazing that those girls survived. Hope for a speedy recovery.

    • That’s a LOT of rain. Dogs just don’t deal well with noises they don’t understand. My daughter has a dog that gets so scared she sometimes has a seizure. They have to give her a tranquilizer on the 4th of July because they live in a state where fireworks are legal and it’s pop, bang, pow all day and night. At least storms come and go fairly quickly in comparison.

    • Fireworks seem a bit lax this year. Probably the rain storms kept the shooters inside. Last week I heard what for all the world, sounded like small arms fire. Having done a lot of time on weapons qualifications, you tend to be able to tell the difference. Wife said it was early fireworks. “Okay” I replied, though I had my doubts. Where I live at, it could be anything. About six months ago, someone shot up a fish market over on Hwy 29. I guess he didn’t like their selection of Mullet. With the dubious nature of some of the subdivisions around here, I keep a Mossberg in the closet and a breach loading .410 next to the bed. I prefer the Mossberg since that was what most of my training was on for SAT and BAF… and what I was usually issued during drills. My philosophy is “go with what you know.” I would prefer a 1911 Colt, it’s a slow round but it will drop an intruder in short order no matter what they are jacked up on. With the Mossberg, I’m gonna wind up having to clean the walls. I’m staying away from slug ammo, I don’t want to shoot the neighbor through my walls. I figure birdshot will slow whoever it is down until the police arrive. If I have to resort to the machete, it ain’t gonna be pretty, but I am not going down without a fight.

      • “Where I live at, it could be anything”. People think of Illinois as a northern state, but where I live in “southern” Illinois, it is much more “southern red-neck” country where “muddin” vehicles and guns rule. I say this lovingly because some of these red-necks are my good friends. Coming from much farther north originally, it took me a while to get used to some of the shenanigans. The first time I encountered one of these, I was at a party at one of these friends who live out in the country. I heard someone yell “Yodie” and guys came running with guns. I had no clue what was happening. It ended up being a competition to see who could shoot the coyote (yodie) running across a field of soy beans at several hundred yards. No coyotes? They just bring out the potato gun. Sign on the door? “This property protected by Smith & Wesson”.

        • My dad was a “damned yankee.” He came from Elmhurst… back when people actually lived there. (I think it’s a hockey rink now).

          If society completely fails, I have to get up into Central Mississippi, I and my cousins own about 30 acres of farmland there. (my grand dad’s old place). I keep enough food and fuel around here to make that trip if needed. I have even used the backroads to get there when running from a hurricane when the main throughfares were backed up.

          And… if that becomes untenable, there always 3 acres down on the bottomland of Ichoosee Creek… if you can handle the mosquitoes. It was my grandmother’s Dowry.

          Oddly enough, on my mothers side, my family has been in Mississippi since 1790. (earliest official record that I have found. A court case over 4 horses and 10 gallons of “good whiskey”. It was the settlement that was paid to my relative)

        • Hello all,
          I’ve a nice chunk of hawthorn in the hall cupboard, just about the right length to schwing it one or two handed anywhere in our terraced house… So; shorter than a baseball bat, longer than a rounders bat…If I had a roomier house I’d have one of these:

          Btw ; neither of these seasoned players has any front teeth whatsoever

          • I still have the tree which grew the twatting stick; a fancy Midland Hawthorn which produces a profusion of scented, “double rose” type flowers when it’s in the mood…
            Hawthorn is some good wood; very dense/heavy… The classic Irish whacking stick (shilleghleigh) is made from a close cousin: Blackthorn:


            • Cool, thanks! I learned something new today. A couple of weeks I learned about the fascinator, now I learned about the jewelled Shillelagh. I saw an Irish officer with one of those ones. Now I know what the name is 🙂

      • Well, I guess my neighbours are a bit frendlier, but I also go with use what you know.
        I tend to have old Betsy (Carl Gustaf M/45B SMG aka the K-Rifle) around, it is one of the most rugged and reliable weapons ever produced, and it puts up a wall of bullets.
        Image and video hosting by TinyPic
        Otherwise I go for the Steyr HS .460 M1, it will drop a 2000 pound moose at 1000 meters, so it is pretty much stops anything at any range. It fires the bullet faster and longer with more accuracy than the .50, bigger is not always better.

          • You know the M45 was the weapon of choice for the SEALs in ‘Nam? The US built version of the M45 is Christened the M76.
            I’ve tested the M3 greaser, it has a nice slug. But, the M45 takes more pounding. I once dropped my M45 in a mudhole in minus 20 and the damn thing got frozen, so I kickstarted it and just kept on firing. My general thinking is that if it took me through Bosnia and Congo and a select few other places (as back up gun to the sniper rifle) it will take me through pretty much anything the world throws at me.

            The M3, M45 or any good greaser will get you through all kinds of Urban mischief, short distance they rule.

            Edit: And before anyone says anything… It is the Fourth of July, so I think it is okay with a bit of gun tootin’ in memory of the Constitution.

            • Hey, don’t be coy 🙂
              You’re the one with the big flying rocket shooting thingies 😉

            • What? My home security (a three cell Maglite) versus a Kulsprutepistol m/45? No thanks!!!

            • For the do it yourselfer….

              Diced Habeneros, soaked in alcohol. Strain out the solids, put the alcohol in your favorite high powered squirt gun.

              Not elegant, but makes a fine deterrent. It will be just shy in strength of what the police use. If you wish it to last, find some sort of thin light oil to soak the habeneros in. That will make it less than water soluble and it will stick to the skin and continue the irritation. If you are lucky, you will get it on their private parts. Then they will curse you for eternity.

            • Side note… never boil habeneros inside the house. you will find yourself coffing and choking in the back yard… along with your wife, the dog, and anyone else that was in the house.

              If you are lucky, your wife won’t find a stick and take out after you.

            • I would use high grade acetic acid to soak them habaneros in. The combination of that acetic acid and the chili… The advantage is that acetic acid opens up the pores of the skin so the sting goes through hard.
              The opening of pores is what make the acetic acid so good for pickling things. I would though not eat the chili pickled thug.

            • A friend of mine, in San Diego, when presented with the possibility of an intruder lurking in the neighborhood, had a rather odd plan. If it was the middle of the night, he was going to grab the cat and hurl it at the intruder. The cat in question, was a pretty ill tempered beast to begin with. Only people in the family could pet it. It would snarl at all others.

            • Bit of 4th of July fun. I am good friends with a retired Rocket Scientist.-No Kidding. He spent many years at China Lake Naval Weapons test center. I knew him in College ah 30+-something years ago.Even then he liked things that went “Swoosh Boom”-sometimes unintentionally. Ok, he was home from Engineering School (ok, Cal Tech.) seeing his Girlfriend . She lived on this NE Oregon cattle ranch out in the middle of the Grand Ronde Valley. You see, he had been working on this summer project – a solid fuel rocket engine.So, he decided that the test mule he constructed would make a great 4th celebration device.(as long as, it turned out, you were safely down range and upwind…) .So he, his brother and I dug a pit, placed said rocket engine in the pit, secured by sand, gavel and clay. Packed firmly with a field roller we felt it ready for The Test. It was evening. One of those red sky after a Thunderstorm skies we get here. My Cowboy/Indian Pop called a sky like that a “Ghost Riders in the Sky ” night.
              We got done with the Barbecue. The crowd gathered in the field next to the ranch house. Now the
              Girlfriend’s parents were these classic Cattle Rancher types. -I come from similar stock-. Notmuch bothers these folk, except when Cape Canaveral is simulated in the back forty acres.
              The Test. As he was pouring the mixture for the solid fuel in to the combustion chamber, my
              friend said: “Hmm. this mix might be a bit hot..” Show time- “10,9,8,7, AAACHOOO!!” My friend’s grass allergy took over, as he sneezed, and mashed the control button…There was quiet.
              The birds even stopped their night chorus.. The frogs in the pond stopped croaking . “Oh-my-
              G….” a gasp came upon the crowd collectively as a 10ft tongue of orange purple flame and a
              column of smoke erupted like a not so small, sand, dirt erupted also from the
              hole as the now astonished ‘Steely-eyed-rocket man” and his future in-laws were now peeking out
              behind the John Deere to the settling smoke, dust, and bits of debris of unknown origins. A small grass fire had started and was heading for the the Ranch house..The John Deere had a disc harrow on it and was close enough to stop the main fire from getting to the house. The Rocket motor
              was buried oh, a good 3.5 meters in to the soft earth, the casing it was mounted on was destroyed..-partially melted and molten. the rocket itself was in not bad shape. The forged titanium
              nozzle and the case hardened steel body were pretty much intact….
              His future-in-laws said:”You will never test another thing like that on this place again.!!”
              He didn’t..”

            • Excellent! Nothing I can compare to that.

              As a kid… I did destructive stuff. One was to poke a hole in the lid of an empty plastic milk jug with a pencil and to wedge a bottle rocket into it. Put about an ounce of gasoline in the jug, put the cap on, shake it a bit, set it in a clearing, light the fuse and run like hell.

              Makes a nice whomp! as it goes off. Then you have to run around stamping out fire. Why does it always end with having to put stuff out? This had limited entertainment value.

              (Do not try this at home, this was done by a crazy teenager who had no conception of the dangers at the time!)

              Given my other hobby was making remotely activated firecrackers, I’m pretty sure that in the modern day, I would be investigated.

            • … however. I did have the exciting pleasure of watching my older cousin ride a lawnmower in wheelie mode that he had been working on. Damn near got the dog. He had let the clutch out too fast… I think the hedge is what stopped him, though it wasn’t really a hedge.. more of that gnarly thicket brush that grows next to the fence.

              Speaking of fun with cousins. We were moving a load of baled hay up to another barn. At the time this road was gravel. The pin securing the trailer popped out and the trailer tongue made a nose dive into the road. We scrambled to re-attach the hitch to the back of the tractor, and looked up to our horror, to see a tractor trailer dump truck rounding the corner down the hill with a large plume of dust. He was probably doing about 45 mph or so. The older cousing guned the tractor, dropped it in gear, and the hitch held, he nosed it up into the cemetery circle road in order to get clear of the main road. Truck blasts past us, slinging gravel the whole way. A large number of my family are buried in that grave yard. In fact, the part of the graveyard that it expanded into, was donated by my grandfather to the cemetery. At one time, there was a church there, but that was in a different era.

              Amazing what sort of stuff you can remember from years gone by.

            • As a mis-guided youth, 4th of July was always my favorite holiday.
              Back in the day, we didn’t have money for exotic stuff like bottle rockets and cherry bombs like the other kids, so we had to improvise.
              Not only that, but a smidgen of an inferiority complex dictated that not only must it go “boom”, but needed to be heard/seen for a least 2 miles.
              One solution was to improvise an acetylene “bomb”. Mix in the correct ratio of acetylene and oxygen gas into a wax (plastic won’t do) milk carton. Seal the top and poke a small hole in the bottom. Run a small trickle of gasoline about 10 meters in length to the milk carton hole to act as a “fuse”. Lite fuse from accross the street and get away. When the explosion goes off, it is “felt” as much as it’s heard. The flash too, is awesome. Cops hated it since the “concusion” could be heard/felt for miles, but no visible trace was ever left.
              We did this for several years until one year an rock in the asphalt got blasted away, and my neighbor had to cough up $400 to replace the windshield in his ‘Caddy”. What a stupid place to park a ‘Caddy.
              Next year, we decided not to put explosives on the ground. So, we bought a few of those surplus Weather Balloons you used to see advertised on the back of Superman Comic books. By using a combination of household lye + water (drain cleaner) and a roll of aluminum foil mixed in a five gallon paint drum with a faucet screwed into the top, we filled the weather balloons with damn-near pure Hydrogen. We used a cigarette to act as a time-delay fuse attached to a firecracker taped to the balloon and let ‘er fly.
              Up it went, maybe 1,000′ or so, then “boom”. The flash would light up the entire neighborhood, and the concusion was awesome. Every bit a crowd-pleaser.
              Everything went great until we tried to launch one with too much “San Francisco Seabreeze” whipping down the street.
              Balloon went up, but only got 10’ up before taking a right angle turn in the wind and started heading right up the middle of the street.
              The balloon hit a car roof, rolled over, and the cig lit the hydrogen. And another car windshield bites the dust.
              This effectively ended creative bomb making from my favorite things to do list.

  12. For those of you with a little time on your hands today, here is the link to a video of the R/V Thompson’s 2011 exploration of the Axial Seamount 3 months after it’s eruption. There is quite an undertaking going on there – laying fiber optic cabeling and all kinds of scientific equipment. There will eventually be a LIVE webcam watching the volcano that will be available to all on the Internet. How cool is that? The video is 28 minutes long and I did find the loading time to be a bit slow but well worth it.

  13. Ah… took me a while to grasp things…

    Happy Fourth of July, may it for the rest of the time of the Universes existance be free of Will Smith.

  14. … I, am flummoxed.

    I have a favorite beer, it’s a light beer, not a stout. It’s flavor is consistent, and I like drinking it. I choose to do this since evern dark stout available to me, is, in my opinion, a poor imitation of Murphys stout. My problem is that the local store quit stocking it. Sure, the typical swamp-water Bud products. But not the brand that I prefer. They do carry a re-hashed version of one of their older versions, but I don’t want that. (I used to drink it prolifically back when getting a beer was the thing to strive for, other than a female companion)

    Today, I ran across my brand… and the right version. But in some oddball screw top can. Odd, but I’m okay with that. Here is the cool part. It’s not the 12 ounce version typical of American “beers.” It’s a full pint! 😀

    I guess that’s a benefit. (Note, don’t give me grief about American “pisswater” beer. I know we have some crappy beer by European standards. You may not agree, but I think Murphy’s is the best thing going.)

    • Actually some American beers are definitely not pisswater. There are some real good breweries out there, but finding it in the stores can be a problem.
      Anchor Steam and Samuel Adams are good. My personal favourite is the SAs Winter Lager, nothing makes me think of winter more than that. The really cool thing is that my local watering hole has it on tap.

      You’d never expect an American imported lager was my favourite beer did you?

      • Actually.. no I wouldn’t. I was so enamored with Murphy’s that I had it ordered special for my retirement ceremony. I was one happy camper… until they started playing Who Let the Dogs Out. A song I detest to this day. I got em back though, in my speech I related how the crew of the Cole couldn’t afford pleasantries like we were enjoying… they were in the process of busting their ass trying desperately to save their ship. Lets just say it took the celebratory aspects of the song away. (Note, I had warned them not to play it. I had the buzz kill speech on standby in case they did.) As for choking during the speech… (which is what all speech demands are actually for) guess again. With two instructor tours, I was fairly adept at keeping my train of thought while up in front of a group of people.

        • -My Cousin was on the Cole-she was at her Station-skipped chow which saved her life.
          She’s still in-on her 18th year…
          Pop, Mom, and two Brothers-all USN…

          • Word of advice from an old (relatively) chief. If she can hang on for at least one tour past 20, (24 yr total), she will thank herself in the long run. That’s about the only thing I would have changed. (but it would have been problematic, my specialty was done away with shortly after I got out) At 18 years, she likely is pretty senior, and most of the BS is behind her.

      • Most Europeans don’t know this, but American Beer culture is actually pretty strong and there are a ton of great breweries out there. The thing is, it really depends where at in the country you are. Just like european countries, there is a large portion of the population who prefers drinking mass produced light beer that tastes like pisswater.

        Where I live, there is a very vibrant microbrew scene with a huge variety of high quality brews. Craft beer is actually becoming much more popular nationwide as well. The best thing about USA beer culture is the massive variety of beers you’ll see. Germany only has 3 varieties of beer per city, and most everyone in the city drinks the same 3 beers from the local brewery due to beer purity laws. Britain is obviously famous for their lagers, and other countries have their specialties as well.

        In the USA, pale ales are very popular, but you see reds, belgians, porters, stouts, and loads of other beer varieties that you don’t really find around the world as much (this is what most of my european and well traveled USA friends have told me).

        • Long story short, saying american beer is bad is similar to going to europe, drinking nothing but Heineken and Becks and saying all european beer is crap.

          • I thought we (in the uk) were famous for warm beer, but thought that just meant beer that wasn’t chilled (chilling reduces the amount of aromatics being released and thus makes the flavour much more subtle – warming has the opposite effect). Then in germany I saw a chap order a beer and also an ashtray full of hot water which he then stood the beer in!

          • The best thing with coming from a country without a beer culture of it’s own is that we import the best from all over the world. So, I am a pretty neutral party in the beer party in here.
            And let me tell you, I like beers from all over, and I like the more special types.
            For instance in Belgium, the good ones are the trappist, but I stay away from the Stella and others. In England I like the bitters, and in Germany I like the big honking ones serwed with sausages the size of Götterdämmerung.

            Hm… Now I want a big honking beer with a bitter chaser and a trappist side order. Once again it is your fault 🙂

            • As Belgian I have to give some comments on it. I’m from Leuven, the city of Stella. Stella is here quite literally “tapwater”. It is what you get in Leuven if you order “een pintje”, the cheapest beer sold in massive amounts in a bar. (Quantity over quality and as cheap as mineralwater/cola) If you compare Stella with Trappist (High quality beer) Stella will always lose because it is not a quality beer (although Inbev seems to think it is). But for a mere “pintje” it’s good beer.

              Also Belgium have a lot sorts of beer, but you have to look behind the obvious if you want to have really good/special beer. For instance Geuze and Lambic are beers with wild yeast (natural fermenting) and lambic matures for several years in oak barrels.

            • I knew it was something I missed 🙂
              Same goes for English beer, there are other nice ones there, and a dunkel is always nice in germany.

          • Yes, that is where I wanted to get, Lambic. Nowhere (to my knowledge) is a place where there is auto fermentation. Stella and Jupiler are….well, I prefer to drink tapwater. The thing with Belgian beers is that you will find nearly infinite variety among the more than 400 beers available (in a “small” country geographically speaking)

    • Yepp, indeed, and look at bottm of page of that link – Most W.O.W. pictures of Sakurajima erupting (9 Photos courtesy of Martin Rietze). I remember weel the day he was upon Eyjo and doing his stunning photography (at crater rim, in area that was much off limits to us, the common people!!)

    • Laughing … hi Alison isn’t the sun just wonderful?! DING!
      Yes of course No 5 is Krasheninnikov …. 2 points

  15. # 6 → Lydda (Lod). Though I have no idea how sticking a girdle on a dragon and then dragging it back to the town is related to a Volcano. It sounds like a bit from Monty Python.

    This morning, I awoke to the vehement cursings of my wife. It seems a clap of thunder had lofted the dog into the air, and he sought shelter on my wifes pillow… while she was using it.

    • Erm …. DING! Yep 2 more points to add to your very impressive tally Alison … No 7 The Quill

    • Oh you know me so well …
      Yup … my Saints (Southampton FC) play at St Mary’s stadium so DING! … 2 points for grimmster and No 4 St Mary’s Islands

    • Talking about guns and now this. 🙂

      I know these days to well. Maybe a cool local beer and a few songs, while more Laki EQ’S get created.

      Because its Friday madness.

      • I too am NOT letting isolated Laki quakes sink into my skin… |smiles (outside is storm and rain, just like autumn storms, well maybe THE summer is OVER) & Rant mode > OFF
        Laki fires started in June, not July … so any body up for an Hekla bet … .

        • Weirdly enough I get the autumn feel too…
          Perhaps we really had our summer early this year wiith that massive freak May heatwave.
          I am still gunning for something on the Askja line going pop soon.

          I have given up on understanding Hekla for the moment, she can sit there and be a mean drunk without me for a while… Nah 🙂

            • humm… my summer (if it was one) made hasty reatreat this morning, replaced by heavy rain.
              BTW. Mentioning Askja..
              There was program today (RUV RAS 1) interview with geo specialist about Askja Lake and its sudden Ice less condition. No conclution yet as to why, research is not yet over, but it ‘needed massive inject of warm water to do that’
              *giving hint for small eruption maybe ….

            • I am more believing in new magma heating up that broken up bottom of the subsidation caldera. Think a massive hydrothermal field down there.
              I do still not believe in micro eruptions from large Icelandic volcanoes. I could buy a phreatic detonation or two, and I can of course buy hydrothermal events. But not minis… I know IMO has a completely different opinion.

            • But I do belive in mini eruptions … have seen old (slide) fotos of mini eruption … last eruption in Surtsey was so small is was hidden away by a small hill. Its lava was so thin they walked on it whilst it was still running and new.
              Some months ago I was given old printed photo glued on a piece of wood plate. On back side there was this text ‘ELDGOS I Oskju’ or ‘Eruption in Askja’ (Photo by Adolf Karlsson)
              I presume this be from the 1961 event … not many photos exist of that one.

  16. #6 Cappadocia is the Birthplace of St George (Who had a habit of slaying Dragons and for some reason became a Saint and to boot the Patron saint of England. (Maybe English people were not well behaved enough to be connonised so we had to borrow one from Turkey !)Looking down on Cappadocia is the beautiful Strato Volcano
    Erciyes . This is a good picture of it.

    • Monte Carlo?
      After the Monte Carlo statistical model.
      Either that or the Feynman-Fermi pincer integral.

      • Could be Montserrat, it was the first volcano were MC modeling was used to predict behaviour of a volcano.

        Got it! Emergence and Emergent Order theory. Giant’s Causeway is an emergant order Bénard cell 🙂

    • # 3 Adatara….In Japan. A data (statistics?) Ra short for random ? Clutching at straws here. I need my bed…..
      #3 again… I feel I should get this one really being a biologist and having used so many statistical models in the past……Poisson regression is a form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables…. expectation of randoms… Poisson French for .Fish…
      Fisher, Stratovolcano Unimak Island, Alaska

  17. Gaussberg, extinct volcanic cone. Gauss, father of the Gauss-Markov process, sloppily called Gaussians. Gaussians are used to find hidden order in chaos, like in volcanic tremor.

    • If this is not correct I will go out into the garage and build a nuke.

      Edit: For FRA and NSA guys listening in, yeah I could, but I wouldn’t and you know it. But just to rile your feathers, run down to Fermi Lab and ask about the Strong Wheelan interpretation of the Feynman Path-Integral Solution and what happens if you whack a time forward electron with a time reversed one if the Wheelan interpretation is true. Someone there will explain it to you, but they will use big words.

      Edit 2: For the others wondering what the Hork I am talking about. Let us just say that it is the penultimate bad Kharma.

        • *grumble*

          Going out to the garage to build something less explosive… If it was not the volcano of Gaussberg then I truly give up. I will now go and play lip banjo for world peace.

          • The guys who did that are Melophonic. They make seriously cool electronic music. I think I am their only fan, at least who look at their video clips at Youtube.

  18. No 3 … there is a particular stats model/system that enables the user to ‘anticipate’ the outcome of random effects … and hey it just happens to be the name of a volcano! Lucky for me eh!

    • I have the horrible feeling that I will bang my head against the wall and say “Obviously” when you reveal what it is….
      Now I will get back to fiddling with cellular automata. Funny that you would come up with an emergant order riddle when I am sitting working with it… Sigh… My brain is just not wired for riddles.

      I’ve discovered a thing that Wolfram got wrong (among many things), and that is that a cellular automata needs to consume energy and preserve energy. I call it the Mercury Rule of Cellular Automata.

      So, here is Mercury for you, what he did here was just stunning.

    • You got it ….
      In statistics, best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) is used in linear mixed models for the estimation of random effects.
      DING! 2 points inannmoon667 for No 3 Blup Blup Volcano

  19. Anybody studied ‘grumble theory’ or if that can be atomized *likely not
    *friday night and nothing on telly either, arrgh…

  20. Just No 6 and the solitary dragon slayer … I need to sleep so I’ll leave you with that one …

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